2026 年 03 月 03 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 2 月版号供给稳步释放，国内游戏市场持续修复 投资要点 传媒 行业快报 投资评级 领先大市(维持) 首选股票 评级 一年行业表现 资料来源：聚源 | 升幅% | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -11.73 | 1.22 | 5.76 | | 绝对收益 | -10.64 | 3.45 | 25.44 | 分析师 王延森 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525100001 wangyansen@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 传媒：AI 应用场景逐步落地，投资方向日渐丰 富-华金证券-传媒-行业深度 2026.1.9 传媒：AI 赛道竞争多维深化，生态应用格局加 速演-华金证券-传媒-行业快报 2025.12.12 传媒：长剧内容供给创新，微短剧市场多元发 展-华金证券-传媒-行业快报 2025.12.10 传媒：数字音乐发展迅速，平台赋能消费生态- 华金证券-传媒-行业快报 2025.11.30 传媒：版号创新高注入活力，双端驱动十月市 场增长-华金证券-传媒-行业快报 2025. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" with an expectation of over 10% relative increase against the CSI 300 index in the next six months [59] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Spring Festival box office performance was below expectations, with a total box office of 57.52 billion yuan and 120 million viewers during the holiday period [20] - AI applications have gained significant traction, with notable user engagement metrics, such as over 50 million daily active users for the Yuanbao app and 1.14 billion monthly active users [4][11] - The gaming sector showed steady growth, particularly in the PC segment, which saw a year-on-year increase of 23.46% [12] Market Review - As of February 25, 2026, the media index fell by 3.73%, ranking last among 30 primary industry groups, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.45 percentage points [14] - Among sub-sectors, the internet advertising marketing sector dropped by 11.56%, while the film sector saw a slight increase of 0.16% [14][17] - The overall PE ratio for the media sector is 31.36 times, with a historical percentile of 88.2% [19] Industry News - Tencent launched its first independent comic drama app, "Fire Dragon Comic Drama," focusing on AI technology applications in the comic drama field [20] - The report mentions the release of new AI models, such as Seedance 2.0 and Keling 3.0, which enhance content creation capabilities in the film and creative sectors [20] - The report notes that the domestic game market's actual sales revenue reached 324.68 billion yuan in January 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 4.47% [39] Monthly Data - In January 2026, the domestic film market's box office was 1.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.15% [23] - The average ticket price in January was 38.53 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.34% [23] - The gaming market's actual sales revenue for January 2026 was 324.68 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 2.99% [39]

Seedance2.0 引市场关注，春节档票 房不及预期 ——传媒行业月报 传媒 分析师：乔琪 登记编码：S0730520090001 qiaoqi@ccnew.com 021-50586985 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 传媒相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 《传媒行业分析报告：春节档表现低迷，票房 低于预期》 2026-02-25 《传媒行业月报：AI 流量入口竞争白热，春 节档电影供给丰富》 2026-01-28 《传媒行业分析报告：传媒 2025Q4 基金持仓 分析：重仓股配置力度环比下降，个股配置分 化》 2026-01-27 联系人：李智 ⚫ 行情回顾与估值表现：截至 2026 年 2 月 25 日，2 月传媒指数下跌 3.73%，在 30 个一级行业组合中排名第 30，跑输同期上证指数 （+0.71%）4.45pct，跑输同期沪深 300 指数（+0.63%）4.36pct， 跑输同期创业板指（+0.25%）3.99pct。 子板块中，互联网广告营销板块下跌11.56%，游戏板块下跌4.25%， 出版板块下跌 0.04%，影视板块上涨 0.16%。 2026 年 2 月 1 日 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the smart technology industry [2] Core Insights - The smart technology sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with various ETFs showing strong performance, particularly in the media and AI segments [3][12] - The market for new games is recovering, with both domestic and international supply accelerating, led by major companies like Tencent [4][34] - The AI application landscape is witnessing breakthroughs, with significant investments from major tech companies, indicating a potential revaluation of AI application sectors [5] Market Review - The smart technology ETFs have shown a general upward trend, with the media ETF (512980) leading with a 22.14% increase, followed by the Sci-Tech AI ETF (588760) and the Xinchuang ETF (159537) with increases of 17.39% and 17.21% respectively [3][12] - The technology sector is in an upward channel, supported by factors such as valuation recovery, improved trading structures, and ongoing policy support for technology sectors [12] Industry Dynamics - The gaming market is seeing a revival with major titles being launched, including Tencent's "Counter-Strike: Future" and "All-Star Awakening," which are expected to generate significant revenue [4][34] - The film industry is also active, with six high-quality films scheduled for release during the 2026 Spring Festival, indicating a rich supply for the cinema market [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI application-themed ETFs, as the release of models like Seedance 2.0 and Keling 3.0 marks significant advancements in the multi-modal field, which could lead to accelerated commercialization of AI applications [5]

"游戏电竞孵化器"也在同日启动。在位于融石广场共计10000平方米的孵化空间内，将落地北京市重点 实验室，整合游戏版号申报咨询服务窗口、科幻产业基金、文化科技基金、人才公寓等全链条产业资 源，为游戏电竞领域初创企业提供政策扶持、技术赋能、资本对接和出海服务等支持。孵化器将加速培 育一批具有竞争力的创新企业，筑牢数字空间产业发展根基，打造游戏电竞创新高地。 当日，市科委、中关村管委会，石景山区政府，首钢集团分别与中国传媒大学、北京师范大学签署四方 合作协议，"科幻电影与智能影像北京市重点实验室"与"科幻数智影音空间北京市重点实验室"落地首钢 园。实验室将汇聚高校顶尖科研力量，突破数字内容生产核心技术，推动技术研发与产业需求精准对 接，为内容创作提升、场景体验升级注入科研动能。 2025年3月底，北京未来数字空间创新试验区正式落地首钢园，打造未来数字空间产业创新区、数字经 济标杆城市场景示范区和未来数字空间发展政策试验区。根据《关于支持北京未来数字空间创新试验区 建设的若干措施》，本市聚焦科幻、元宇宙、游戏、电竞、虚拟现实等重点产业，对试验区内前沿技术 创新示范场景培育、精品数字内容创作、国家级和市级重点实验室入 ...

据此前印发的《关于支持北京未来数字空间创新试验区建设的若干措施》，聚焦科幻、元宇宙、游戏、 电竞、虚拟现实等重点产业，本市对培育前沿技术创新示范场景、支持精品数字内容创作、支持国家级 和市级重点实验室入驻、建设数字空间标杆孵化器等进行支持。例如对首用首试等创新性体验场景和技 术应用项目、对落地重点实验室的技术创新项目，给予最高30%、不超过1000万元的项目支持等。 市科委、中关村管委会副主任翟天瑞介绍，建设北京未来数字空间创新试验区，是北京市构建科幻、元 宇宙、游戏电竞、虚拟现实、机器人等数字空间产业矩阵、打造数字空间产业集聚地的重要举措，市区 企多方将锚定建设科幻之城、未来之城目标，充分发挥北京市"人工智能第一城"技术创新优势，强化人 工智能、虚拟现实前沿技术创新运用，建设新平台、布局新场景，把试验区建成汇集北京（京津冀）国 际科技创新中心建设成果的核心承载区和展示区。 石景山区区长万隆表示，石景山区深耕人工智能、科幻、虚拟现实等特色领域，将瞄准数字空间底层技 术和关键环节，强化政策、资本、空间、人才等要素保障，支持游戏电竞等新业态集聚发展，持续厚植 产业发展沃土。首钢集团董事长赵民革介绍，作为北京未来数 ...

Core Insights - In January 2026, 36 Chinese companies made it to the global mobile game publisher revenue TOP 100, collectively generating $2.18 billion, accounting for 37.8% of the total revenue of the global TOP 100 mobile game publishers [1] - Tencent secured the top position in global mobile game publisher revenue, with a 43% month-on-month increase driven by flagship titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [2][5] - Tencent's "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" dominated the Chinese App Store revenue rankings, occupying the top four positions [1][5] Tencent's Performance - Tencent's "Honor of Kings" saw a 105% month-on-month revenue surge to $220 million following the launch of a new skin [2] - "Peacekeeper Elite" experienced a 156% revenue increase, surpassing $110 million, aided by new skins and a festive update [2] - Tencent's overall revenue in January reached a peak due to the strong performance of these two titles [2] Other Notable Performers - Point Interactive's mobile game "Tasty Travels: Merge Game" achieved a 33% revenue growth in January, driven by a new event [2] - "Mobile Legends: Bang Bang" experienced a 118% revenue increase, reclaiming the top spot in the Southeast Asian mobile game sales chart [3] - Yostar's "Blue Archive" and "Arknights" saw significant revenue increases of 220% and 122%, respectively, due to anniversary events [3] New Releases and Market Trends - Eagle Horn Network's new 3D real-time strategy RPG "Arknights: End of the World" topped multiple iOS download charts upon its global launch, significantly boosting publisher revenue [3] - Heartopia, the overseas version of "Heart Town" by Xindong Network, achieved a 516% revenue increase in January, topping iOS download charts in several markets [4] - The Chinese mobile game publisher revenue TOP 100 also included companies like BeHeFun Games and GameTree Entertainment, totaling 36 publishers [4]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 13% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit increasing by 16% to 643 billion [1] Group 1: Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming revenue is projected to grow by 16% year-on-year in Q4, with a sequential slowdown due to the longer deferral period of "Delta" and no new game launches in the domestic market [2] - "Counter-Strike: Future" has launched on both platforms, reaching over 10 million players shortly after its release, with expected first-year revenue between 35-70 billion [2] - Key upcoming projects for 2026 include "Rock Kingdom: World" in March and "Honor of Kings World" in spring, along with several other titles [2] Group 2: Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue is anticipated to grow by 9% year-on-year in Q4, primarily due to a slowdown in social retail growth [3] - AI mini-programs are expected to enhance e-commerce, transportation, and local life scenarios, with significant growth in token usage and paid penetration rates anticipated in 2026 [3] - In 2025, the monetization scale of AI application mini-programs increased by 108%, with eCPM rising by 75% [3] Group 3: Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year in Q4, driven by increased budgets from long-tail advertisers and efficiency improvements from AI [4] - WeChat is gradually evolving towards a shelf-like e-commerce model, introducing social relationship-based product recommendations and exploring differentiated social e-commerce features [4] - In 2025, the GPM of WeChat mini-stores increased to 1.5 times compared to 2024, with a 70% year-on-year growth in the average number of active merchants [4] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been adjusted downwards by 0.5% to 0.8% for 2025-2027, primarily due to changes in gaming revenue deferral predictions [5] - Adjusted net profit forecasts have been revised down by 0.9% to 0.5% to 263.1 billion, 299.4 billion, and 342.5 billion respectively, mainly due to increased AI investment costs [5] - The target price for Tencent is set at 792 HKD, corresponding to a 21.6 times PE valuation for 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the gaming sector [7]. Core Insights - The gaming industry continues to show strong performance with multiple new game launches and the integration of AI applications, which are expected to enhance valuations in the sector [2][4]. - The report highlights the sustained growth in the mini-game market, with over 1 billion registered users on WeChat mini-games and a monthly active user (MAU) count exceeding 500 million [9]. - The report emphasizes the potential of AI in gaming, citing the successful implementation of AI-driven features in games like Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group," which has seen over 25 million AI-participated matches [9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The mini-game market is experiencing good growth, with nearly 70 games achieving over 1 million daily active users (DAU) and over 300 games generating quarterly revenues exceeding 10 million [9]. - User engagement is increasing, with a projected 10% growth in DAU for WeChat mini-games in 2025, and a 27% year-on-year increase in users active for more than ten days a month [9]. New Game Launches - The report notes that the new game cycle continues into January, with several new titles and long-term products performing well, including "Supernatural Action Group" and "RO: Journey of the World" [9]. - Upcoming game releases are expected to further catalyze the market, with titles like "Tomorrow's Ark: End of the World" and "Douluo Dalu: Zero" set to launch soon [9]. Investment Recommendations - Given the ongoing new game launches and the strong performance of the gaming sector, the report suggests continued attention to investment opportunities in the gaming industry, recommending companies such as Giant Network, Perfect World, and Tencent Holdings [2][9].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's new game "Counter-Strike: Future" issued an apology for mistakenly distributing an in-game item worth 188 yuan to all players as a compensation, and announced plans to recover the mistakenly distributed items while providing compensation to all players [1][2]. Group 1: Incident Details - The incident occurred on the evening of January 15, when all players received an email titled "Recharge Failure Compensation," which contained the "Yinming Poison King - Moon's Oath" package priced at approximately 188 yuan [2]. - The company plans to distribute compensation items such as "Legendary Grade Random Plugin," "Legendary Titanium Leap Secret Treasure," and "Gold Gun: Pure White Supreme" to all players, with distribution completed by January 16 and a collection deadline of January 25, 24:00 [2]. Group 2: Game Background and Performance - "Counter-Strike: Future" is a major PVE shooting game developed by Tencent's TiMi Studio Group, which has undergone several major changes since its initial announcement in 2022, ultimately focusing on a multi-mode seasonal gameplay [2]. - The game was launched on January 13, 2026, and achieved over 20 million pre-registrations before its official release, topping the iOS free game chart on launch day [3]. - As of January 15, the game has attracted over 10 million new users since its launch, and it has collaborated with another Tencent game, "Delta Action," to introduce crossover items [3].