Core Insights - Anta's brand retail revenue growth in Q3 2025 was low single digits, while FILA's brand retail revenue also saw low single-digit growth, with all other brands experiencing a significant increase of 45%-50% [1][2] Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - Anta's brand retail revenue growth was below internal expectations, with online channel growth expected to outpace offline [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, Anta's brand channel inventory turnover was slightly above 5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [1] - Retail discounts for Anta remained stable, with offline discounts at 71% and online discounts around 50%, slightly increasing year-on-year [1] Group 2: FILA Brand Performance - FILA's brand retail revenue showed healthy growth, with e-commerce revenue expected to grow at a high single-digit rate [1] - FILA's channel inventory was approximately 6 months as of the end of Q3 2025, remaining stable year-on-year due to pre-stock for the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [1] - FILA renewed its partnership with the China Open, becoming the exclusive sportswear sponsor, and committed to supporting youth training in tennis [1] Group 3: Other Brands Performance - Other brands, including Descente and Kelong Sports, experienced retail revenue growth of 45%-50%, with Descente's brand revenue expected to grow by 30% [2] - Kelong's brand retail revenue grew by 70%, and it became the official partner of the Chinese national climbing team, enhancing its outdoor brand image [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The overall performance of Anta's main brand was affected by a weak external environment and intensified industry competition, while FILA and outdoor brands continued to show strong performance [2] - Earnings per share projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 4.85, 5.42, and 6.19 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.5, 14.8, and 12.9 times [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) [4] Core Views - Anta's main brand retail sales showed low single-digit year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, while FILA's retail sales also grew at a low single-digit rate. Other brands experienced a significant retail sales increase of 45%-50% [2][3] - The retail discount for Anta remained stable, with offline discounts at 71% and online discounts around 50%. FILA's offline discount was 74% and online discount was 58% [2] - The company is expected to face challenges due to a weak external consumption environment and intensified industry competition, but FILA and outdoor brands continue to perform strongly [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 27, 2025, Anta's closing price was HKD 87.80, with a year-to-date high of HKD 106.30 and a low of HKD 73.55. The circulating market value was HKD 246.473 billion [1] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are expected to be HKD 4.85, HKD 5.42, and HKD 6.19 respectively. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are 16.5, 14.8, and 12.9 [4][6] - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at HKD 77.434 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.3%. Net profit for 2025 is projected to be HKD 13.622 billion, reflecting a decline of 12.7% year-on-year [6][7] Brand Performance - Anta's brand retail sales growth was below internal expectations, while FILA's retail sales remained healthy. The outdoor brands, including Descente and KOLON Sports, saw retail sales growth of 45%-50% [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) [1] Core Views - In 2024, Anta Sports achieved a revenue of 70.826 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.596 billion yuan, up 52.4% year-on-year [1][3] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 1.18 HKD per share, with an annual payout ratio of 51.4% [1] - The outdoor sports brand revenue is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2024 [1] Revenue Performance - In 2024, the e-commerce channel revenue grew by 21.8% year-on-year, accounting for 35.1% of total revenue, an increase of 2.3 percentage points [3] - The retail sales of Anta brand, FILA brand, and other brands grew by high single digits, mid single digits, and 40%-45% respectively [3] - The revenue from the Anta brand reached 33.522 billion yuan, a 10.6% increase, while FILA brand revenue was 26.626 billion yuan, up 6.1% [4][5] Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for the company decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.2%, while the operating profit margin fell by 1.2 percentage points to 23.4% [7] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased by 5.6 percentage points to 22.0% [7] - The company’s net cash position was 31.4 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [7] Future Earnings Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 4.99, 5.57, and 6.35 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 18.1, 16.2, and 14.2 times respectively [8] Market Positioning - Anta Sports is focusing on a strategy of single focus, multi-brand, and globalization, which has led to steady revenue growth and an increase in market share [8] - The company is increasing investments in brand, channel, and product development, despite some fluctuations in profitability [8]