Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5] Core Insights - The company has shown resilience in a fluctuating retail environment, with its main brands maintaining stable performance while the outdoor brand matrix continues to grow significantly [8] - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms in both online and offline channels, alongside the positive momentum of its FILA and outdoor brand matrix [4] Summary by Sections Brand Performance - FILA brand experienced a slight deceleration in growth with a Q3 revenue increase in low single digits, attributed to higher September temperatures affecting autumn apparel sales timing. The offline discount rate was 7.4, and online was 5.8, with inventory turnover increasing to 6X due to preparations for Double Eleven [2] - Other brands within the outdoor segment showed impressive growth, with Descente achieving a 30% revenue increase and KOLON achieving a 70% increase in Q3. Both brands maintained a healthy discount rate of 90% [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted downwards due to retail environment pressures and the impact of the integration of the Wolf Claw brand. Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 793 billion, 875 billion, and 948 billion respectively, with net profits of 131 billion, 145 billion, and 160 billion [4] - The company’s current P/E ratios are projected at 15.8, 14.3, and 13.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 70,826 million, with a growth rate of 13.58%. The net profit for the same year is expected to be 15,596 million, reflecting a significant increase of 52.36% [9]

Core Insights - Anta's brand retail revenue growth in Q3 2025 was low single digits, while FILA's brand retail revenue also saw low single-digit growth, with all other brands experiencing a significant increase of 45%-50% [1][2] Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - Anta's brand retail revenue growth was below internal expectations, with online channel growth expected to outpace offline [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, Anta's brand channel inventory turnover was slightly above 5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [1] - Retail discounts for Anta remained stable, with offline discounts at 71% and online discounts around 50%, slightly increasing year-on-year [1] Group 2: FILA Brand Performance - FILA's brand retail revenue showed healthy growth, with e-commerce revenue expected to grow at a high single-digit rate [1] - FILA's channel inventory was approximately 6 months as of the end of Q3 2025, remaining stable year-on-year due to pre-stock for the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [1] - FILA renewed its partnership with the China Open, becoming the exclusive sportswear sponsor, and committed to supporting youth training in tennis [1] Group 3: Other Brands Performance - Other brands, including Descente and Kelong Sports, experienced retail revenue growth of 45%-50%, with Descente's brand revenue expected to grow by 30% [2] - Kelong's brand retail revenue grew by 70%, and it became the official partner of the Chinese national climbing team, enhancing its outdoor brand image [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The overall performance of Anta's main brand was affected by a weak external environment and intensified industry competition, while FILA and outdoor brands continued to show strong performance [2] - Earnings per share projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 4.85, 5.42, and 6.19 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.5, 14.8, and 12.9 times [2]

Core Insights - Anta Sports reported a low single-digit year-on-year growth in revenue for both Anta and FILA brands in Q3 2025, while other brands experienced a revenue growth of 45-50%, demonstrating resilience amid industry slowdowns and increased promotions [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strategy focused on healthy inventory levels and discount control, optimizing its structure around high-growth segments such as running, outdoor, and tennis [1] - The overall outlook remains positive, with potential benefits from new retail reforms, category upgrades, and overseas expansion, leading to a "Buy" rating [1] Anta Brand Performance - In Q3 2025, Anta brand revenue achieved low single-digit year-on-year growth, with expectations of low single-digit growth in offline and high single-digit growth in online channels [1] - The discount rates for offline and online channels were approximately 71% and 50%, respectively, with inventory turnover slightly above five months, indicating a healthy range [1] - Online performance is expected to gradually improve as organizational adjustments and content operations stabilize, while offline new retail formats continue to show strong performance [1] FILA Brand Performance - FILA brand revenue also saw low single-digit year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, with strong resilience in e-commerce expected to yield high single-digit growth [1] - The brand has solidified its position in tennis by renewing its sponsorship of the China Open and enhancing customer experience through new store formats [1] - Inventory turnover is projected to stabilize around five to six months by year-end, with discount control remaining steady [1] Other Brands Performance - Other brands reported a significant revenue growth of 45-50% in Q3 2025, with specific brands like Descente and KAILAS showing growth rates of approximately 30% and 70%, respectively [2] - The growth of other brands is attributed to high-end functional products and differentiated retail experiences, with a focus on outdoor and performance sports [2] - The company anticipates maintaining strong growth momentum in Q4 during the outdoor peak season [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to uncertainties in retail recovery and a competitive promotional environment, the company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down by 3.8%, 3.6%, and 4.0% to 13.03 billion, 14.63 billion, and 16.30 billion yuan, respectively [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 115.24 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the company's multi-brand and retail operational advantages [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [5] Core Insights - Anta Sports' two main brands are performing steadily, while new brands continue to show high growth momentum [10] - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the Anta brand down to low single-digit growth due to a weak retail environment [10] - The multi-brand matrix of the company is seen as a rare resource with significant growth potential in the long term [10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 623.6 billion RMB - FY2024: 708.3 billion RMB - FY2025E: 789.1 billion RMB - FY2026E: 858.1 billion RMB - FY2027E: 923.0 billion RMB - Net profit forecasts show a significant increase in FY2023 with 102.4 billion RMB, peaking at 159.2 billion RMB in FY2027 [9][20] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 62.6% in FY2023 to 63.9% in FY2027 [9] Brand Performance - Anta and FILA brands showed low single-digit growth in Q3 2025, while other brands experienced a growth rate of 45-50% [10] - FILA's growth was impacted by delayed sales of autumn and winter products, but it is expected to maintain mid-single-digit growth for the year [10] - Other brands like Descente and Maia Active are showing strong growth, with Descente growing approximately 30% and Maia Active around 45% [10] Market Expansion - Anta Sports is expanding its overseas market with a target of reaching 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia within three years [10] - The company is focusing on brand building and market cultivation in strategic markets like Europe and the US [10] Profitability and Cost Management - The company emphasizes quality over quantity in its operations, maintaining a profit margin target of 20-25% for the Anta brand and around 25% for FILA [10] - The report indicates a slight decrease in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to the current weak retail environment [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Anta Sports [10][11]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand and FILA experienced low single-digit revenue growth in Q3 2025, while other brands saw a significant increase of 45%-50% [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the main brand to low single-digit growth for the year, while maintaining the forecast for other brands [10]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to CNY 13.13 billion, CNY 14.77 billion, and CNY 16.46 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -16%, 12%, and 11% respectively [10]. Revenue Performance - Anta's main brand revenue showed low single-digit growth, with offline sales growing at a low single-digit rate and online sales at a higher single-digit rate [2]. - FILA's revenue also grew at a low single-digit rate, with online sales performing better [3]. - Other brands, including Descente, KOLON, and MAIA, reported substantial revenue growth rates of 30%, 70%, and 45% respectively [4][5][6]. Channel and Market Expansion - The company is exploring new retail formats and optimizing operational efficiency, including the expansion of outdoor segments and increasing coverage in key business districts [10]. - Anta has announced a three-year plan to open 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia and is expanding its presence in the U.S. and European markets [2]. Financial Projections - The projected total revenue for Anta Sports for 2025-2027 is CNY 78.06 billion, CNY 86.73 billion, and CNY 95.55 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 11%, and 10% respectively [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at CNY 4.64, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.5 for 2025 and 15 for 2026 [10][11]. Key Financial Metrics - The report indicates a return on equity (ROE) of 24.5% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 41% [6]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately CNY 235.9 billion [6].

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports (02020) is recognized as a leading domestic sportswear brand, effectively leveraging its multi-brand strategy to capitalize on the booming outdoor sports market. The main brand maintains steady growth through channel and product innovation, while FILA is expected to stabilize post-adjustment. The recent acquisition of the Jack Wolfskin brand enhances the outdoor brand portfolio, and global expansion is progressing steadily. The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132 billion, 148 billion, and 166 billion yuan for 2025-2027, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1: Anta Brand Performance - In Q3 2025, Anta's brand revenue achieved low single-digit year-on-year growth, with offline and online businesses estimated to grow at low and high single-digit rates respectively. The inventory turnover ratio is slightly above 5 months, indicating a healthy range. The company anticipates that the performance of e-commerce will improve with the optimization of product offerings and the implementation of Douyin live-streaming strategies [3]. Group 2: FILA Brand Performance - FILA's revenue in Q3 2025 also saw low single-digit year-on-year growth, with e-commerce performance expected to surpass that of offline sales. The inventory turnover ratio increased to 6 months due to preparations for the Golden Week and Double Eleven shopping festival. If Q4 e-commerce promotions are successful, the ratio is expected to return to 5-6 months by year-end. In September, FILA launched its tennis strategy, renewing its sponsorship of the China Open and becoming the exclusive official footwear and apparel sponsor, with expectations for category performance to exceed overall results [4]. Group 3: Other Brands Performance - Other brands experienced a significant revenue increase of 45-50% year-on-year in Q3 2025. Notably, Descente is estimated to grow by over 30%, KOLON by over 70%, and MaiaActive by approximately 45%. These brands are enhancing their differentiated brand images and upgrading retail experiences, with new store openings performing exceptionally well. The outdoor peak season in Q4 is expected to sustain this high growth momentum [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) [4] Core Views - Anta's main brand retail sales showed low single-digit year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, while FILA's retail sales also grew at a low single-digit rate. Other brands experienced a significant retail sales increase of 45%-50% [2][3] - The retail discount for Anta remained stable, with offline discounts at 71% and online discounts around 50%. FILA's offline discount was 74% and online discount was 58% [2] - The company is expected to face challenges due to a weak external consumption environment and intensified industry competition, but FILA and outdoor brands continue to perform strongly [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 27, 2025, Anta's closing price was HKD 87.80, with a year-to-date high of HKD 106.30 and a low of HKD 73.55. The circulating market value was HKD 246.473 billion [1] Financial Data and Valuation - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are expected to be HKD 4.85, HKD 5.42, and HKD 6.19 respectively. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are 16.5, 14.8, and 12.9 [4][6] - Revenue for 2025 is estimated at HKD 77.434 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.3%. Net profit for 2025 is projected to be HKD 13.622 billion, reflecting a decline of 12.7% year-on-year [6][7] Brand Performance - Anta's brand retail sales growth was below internal expectations, while FILA's retail sales remained healthy. The outdoor brands, including Descente and KOLON Sports, saw retail sales growth of 45%-50% [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The globalization narrative of Chinese companies is shifting from merely exporting products to offering culturally rich experiences and identities, as highlighted in the recent event "Breaking the Circle: Chinese Brand Culture Goes Global" hosted by 36Kr [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Opportunities - Southeast Asia is currently the fastest-growing export region for China, surpassing Europe and the US, driven by factors such as convenient transportation and favorable tariffs [5] - The consumer goods market in North America and Europe accounts for 72% of the global market, indicating that these regions are essential for any company aiming for true globalization [9] - The organic sales growth in Asia is relatively high, with consumers willing to spend more, suggesting potential for market entry and expansion [11][15] Group 2: Successful Case Studies - Wuliangye's export strategy involves collaboration with Michelin to reposition its brand in markets like Singapore and Thailand, successfully targeting younger consumers with new product offerings [6] - Anta's strategy focuses on acquiring mid-to-high-end brands to enhance its market presence, allowing it to operate globally while maintaining local brand identities [7] - Starry Innovation has found success in the niche market of pool cleaning machines in the US, demonstrating that innovative technology can thrive regardless of brand origin [8] Group 3: Consumer Behavior Insights - Southeast Asian consumers prioritize convenience, health, and value for money, with a cultural inclination towards a relaxed lifestyle, which influences their purchasing decisions [14][16] - The local consumer market shows a preference for affordable alternatives, indicating a strong presence of "value-for-money" products [16] - There is a notable difference in consumer concerns between Chinese and Southeast Asian markets, with the latter being more sensitive to food prices and public service costs [14] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Companies must adapt their strategies to local markets rather than simply exporting Chinese products, emphasizing the need for localized marketing approaches [20] - Embracing change and actively seeking out opportunities for globalization can help companies secure a competitive edge in the international market [21]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports is focusing on expanding its presence in Southeast Asia as part of its global strategy, aiming to open 1,000 stores in the region over the next three years [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Anta Sports' revenue has significantly increased over the past four years, with figures of 355.12 billion, 493.28 billion, 536.51 billion, 623.56 billion, and 708.3 billion from 2020 to 2024 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Anta reported a revenue increase of 14.3% year-on-year, reaching 385.4 billion, marking a historical high [7]. - The company is projected to exceed 800 billion in revenue for the first time in 2025, achieving a continuous annual increase of over 100 billion for five consecutive years [8]. Group 2: Global Expansion Strategy - Anta is establishing its Southeast Asia headquarters in Singapore, using it as a strategic hub to enhance market advantages and expand into South Asia, Australia, and New Zealand [3]. - The company is employing a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) approach and a multi-brand, omni-channel strategy to connect online and offline sales [3][4]. - Anta has successfully entered various Southeast Asian markets, including Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, Brunei, and Nepal [6]. Group 3: Brand Development and Partnerships - Anta has formed a joint venture with the Korean fashion platform MUSINSA to operate in the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, and Macau, with Anta holding a 40% stake [5]. - The acquisition of outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin for 2.164 billion enhances Anta's brand portfolio, extending its outdoor product line from high-end to mass-market [10]. - Anta's overseas revenue increased by over 150% in the first half of 2025, driven by growth in Southeast Asia and new business launches in the U.S. and the Middle East [10].

Core Viewpoint - Anta is actively pursuing growth through strategic acquisitions, even amidst a general slowdown in investment and mergers within the internet sector. The company aims to enhance its multi-brand portfolio to drive sustainable growth and maintain its market leadership in China [5][6]. Financial Performance - Anta Sports reported a revenue increase of 14.3% year-on-year to 38.54 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a historical high. Adjusted net profit rose by 7.1% to 6.597 billion yuan [8][10]. - All brands under Anta experienced revenue growth, with the Anta brand itself growing by 5.4% to 16.95 billion yuan, while FILA grew by 8.6% to 14.18 billion yuan. Other brands collectively surged by 61.1% to 7.41 billion yuan [10][11]. Brand Performance - The Anta brand, accounting for 44% of total revenue, showed a modest growth of 5.4%, which was slightly below market expectations. This was attributed to strategic adjustments and external pressures [10][11]. - FILA, recognized as a "profit cow" for the group, demonstrated resilience with a revenue of 14.182 billion yuan and a significant operating profit margin [11][13]. - Other brands, primarily Descente and KOLON, achieved remarkable growth rates exceeding 30%, indicating a successful diversification strategy [13][19]. Acquisition Strategy - Anta's acquisition strategy is underscored by its successful integration of FILA, which transformed from a struggling brand into a major revenue driver. The company has committed to a "buy and operate" methodology to replicate this success across multiple brands [20][23]. - Recent acquisitions include a joint venture with the Korean fashion platform MUSINSA and the full acquisition of the outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin for $290 million, reflecting Anta's commitment to expanding its brand matrix [16][27]. - The company has established a clear focus on acquiring brands with strong market potential and aligning them with its operational capabilities to enhance overall performance [26][28]. Market Position - Anta's revenue for the first half of 2025 is comparable to the combined revenues of Nike and Adidas in the Greater China region, highlighting its significant market presence [13][14]. - The company has positioned itself as a leader in the Chinese sportswear market, with a strategy that emphasizes both domestic dominance and global expansion [25][31].