Core Drivers Analysis - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift signals a potential interest rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 75% to 90% following Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - Powell emphasized the "peculiar balance" in the labor market, indicating a shift in focus from "anti-inflation" to "recession prevention," providing long-term support for gold [1] Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, with Israeli forces entering Gaza City and the UN confirming famine in parts of Gaza, which typically increases gold's safe-haven premium [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain risks from Myanmar's tin export controls further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Market Performance - Following Powell's speech, the US dollar index fell from a high of 98.22, leading to decreased preference for dollar assets [3] - Gold futures in New York broke through the key resistance level of $3,400 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,423.4, indicating a bullish trend with a short-term target of $3,450 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold market also showed strength, with Shanghai gold futures closing at 778.96 yuan per gram and trading volume significantly increasing to 168,900 contracts [3] - The bullish momentum in gold is expected to continue, with support levels identified at 3,350-3,355 and resistance at 3,380-3,385 for the upcoming week [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with rising unemployment and disappointing job growth, leading to significant market reactions [1] Employment Data - In July, the U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [1] - The number of non-farm jobs added in May and June was significantly revised downward, indicating a cooling labor market [1] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the U.S. stock market and the dollar index experienced substantial declines [1] - The dollar index fell by over 1%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropped by more than 12 basis points [1] - All three major U.S. stock indices fell by over 1% in early trading [1] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market concerns about the U.S. economy and employment have intensified, leading to increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September monetary policy meeting rose sharply from 37.7% to 75.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in copper futures prices due to a stronger US dollar, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, raising questions about a potential reversal in the metals market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Copper futures prices have decreased amid a stronger US dollar [1] - Geopolitical tensions are contributing to the volatility in the metals market [1] - There is an increasing expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which may influence metal prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The article raises the question of whether the metals market can experience a reversal in light of current economic indicators and geopolitical factors [1]