来源：中信证券研究 文|明明 余经纬 陈炳丞 8月底以来黄金价格迅速上涨，除了此前关注的长期因素，近期美联储降息预期不断升温、美国政府关 门催化避险交易、委内瑞拉方向的地缘政治扰动可能驱动短期快速上行。我们认为尽管这些短期因素终 会消退，但基本面的长期利多难以改变，未来展望仍然乐观。更新的模型显示中性假设下明年Q1金价 有望超过4500美元/盎司。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 ▍8月底以来黄金表现强劲。 自8月27日至10月8日，伦敦现货黄金价格从3376美元/盎司上行至4040美元/盎司，涨幅高达19.7%。此 前我们的外发报告《大类资产观察黄金价值系列—黄金市场脆弱的多空平衡》（2025-09-01）中提出， 4月底至8月底黄金市场的多空平衡有望被打破，后续黄金价格展望乐观。但这一个多月黄金价格的涨幅 仍然超出我们的预期，我们认为主要有以下的超预期因素： ▍美联储降息预期升温更快，市场充分交易了2025年全年三次降息预期。 在8月杰克逊·霍尔年会以及9月美联储议息会议上，鲍威尔都明显侧重关注劳动力市场风险，释放鸽派 信号。但在发言中鲍威尔仍然保留有谨慎空间。而9月议息会议的点阵图和经 ...

晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-09-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2511 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：受益于中美经贸关系缓和，美联储降息预期升温，宏观因素有 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillatory and strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors have improved. Although it is the peak rubber - tapping season in Southeast Asian producing areas, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market production and sales are better than expected, tire prosperity remains high, export growth has rebounded, and demand factors support. On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.10% to 16055 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillatory and strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro sentiment has improved. Although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, driven by the slight strengthening of domestic Shanghai rubber futures on Thursday night, the 2511 contract of synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price rising 0.59% to 11855 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.19% to 15,975 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry remains prosperous, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic, providing demand - side support [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.38% to 11,940 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the improvement of macro sentiment, although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, the contract still shows an oscillating and stronger trend under the background of long - short divergence [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and intraday trends being oscillatory and on the stronger side [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The reference view is to run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry is still booming, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic, providing demand - side support. On the night of Monday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.69% to 15,950 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillatory and stronger trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The reference view is to run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the domestic synthetic rubber futures market has been dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the improvement of macro sentiment, although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, in the context of long - short divergence, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend on the night of Monday this week, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.38% to 11,910 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillatory and stronger trend on Tuesday [7].

Core Drivers Analysis - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift signals a potential interest rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 75% to 90% following Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - Powell emphasized the "peculiar balance" in the labor market, indicating a shift in focus from "anti-inflation" to "recession prevention," providing long-term support for gold [1] Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, with Israeli forces entering Gaza City and the UN confirming famine in parts of Gaza, which typically increases gold's safe-haven premium [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain risks from Myanmar's tin export controls further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Market Performance - Following Powell's speech, the US dollar index fell from a high of 98.22, leading to decreased preference for dollar assets [3] - Gold futures in New York broke through the key resistance level of $3,400 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,423.4, indicating a bullish trend with a short-term target of $3,450 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold market also showed strength, with Shanghai gold futures closing at 778.96 yuan per gram and trading volume significantly increasing to 168,900 contracts [3] - The bullish momentum in gold is expected to continue, with support levels identified at 3,350-3,355 and resistance at 3,380-3,385 for the upcoming week [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with rising unemployment and disappointing job growth, leading to significant market reactions [1] Employment Data - In July, the U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [1] - The number of non-farm jobs added in May and June was significantly revised downward, indicating a cooling labor market [1] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the U.S. stock market and the dollar index experienced substantial declines [1] - The dollar index fell by over 1%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropped by more than 12 basis points [1] - All three major U.S. stock indices fell by over 1% in early trading [1] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market concerns about the U.S. economy and employment have intensified, leading to increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September monetary policy meeting rose sharply from 37.7% to 75.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in copper futures prices due to a stronger US dollar, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, raising questions about a potential reversal in the metals market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Copper futures prices have decreased amid a stronger US dollar [1] - Geopolitical tensions are contributing to the volatility in the metals market [1] - There is an increasing expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which may influence metal prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The article raises the question of whether the metals market can experience a reversal in light of current economic indicators and geopolitical factors [1]