来源：滚动播报 美国国债期货跃升，美元走软。此前ADP Research发布的数据释放美国劳动力市场放缓的信号。美国国 债现货市场因退伍军人节假期休市。ADP数据发布后，10年期美国国债期货上涨。该变幅对应10年期国 债收益率下跌约4个基点。该期限国债收益率周一收于4.12%。货币市场也上调了对美联储降息的押 注，与美联储会期挂钩的互换合约显示，市场预期下个月降息的可能性超过60%。对降息的预期升温导 致彭博美元指数大幅下跌，触及本月最低点，而欧元和日元兑美元均升至盘中高点。周二公布的数 据"与劳动力市场已趋稳定的观点相悖"，T. Rowe Price首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci对Bloomberg Surveillance表示，"我们正在密切予以关注，但同时也意识到10月数据有很多干扰因素，而且会受到政 府停摆的影响。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged since late August, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. government shutdown prompting safe-haven trading, and geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Venezuela. Despite short-term factors, the long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic, with projections indicating prices could exceed $4,500 per ounce in Q1 of next year [1][4]. Group 1: Recent Gold Price Performance - From August 27 to October 8, the London spot gold price rose from $3,376 per ounce to $4,040 per ounce, marking a 19.7% increase. This rise exceeded previous expectations due to various unforeseen factors [1]. - The market has fully priced in expectations for three interest rate cuts throughout 2025, with the probability of a cumulative cut of 75 basis points or more increasing from 38.7% to 79.2% during the same period [2]. Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government experienced a shutdown on October 1 due to the failure to finalize the new fiscal year's budget, marking the first shutdown in seven years. This shutdown is expected to last longer than previous instances, leading to increased safe-haven investments in gold [2][3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Despite efforts by the Trump administration to negotiate a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, geopolitical tensions remain high, particularly regarding Venezuela. The U.S. has increased military presence in the Caribbean and has taken aggressive actions against Venezuelan drug trafficking, indicating potential military intervention [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold - The short-term rise in gold prices is attributed to various risk-driven sentiments, with significant inflows into gold ETFs in North America and Europe. However, the fundamental support for gold remains strong due to worsening U.S. federal debt, declining dollar credibility, and increasing gold purchases by global central banks [3]. - Updated models suggest that under neutral assumptions, gold prices could exceed $4,500 per ounce by Q1 2026, with optimistic scenarios projecting prices above $4,800 per ounce [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report predicts that both the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and the synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend on Thursday, with a slightly upward bias [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: fluctuating with a slight upward bias; Overall view: upward - trending [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry remains prosperous, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic. On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained a stable and fluctuating trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.16% to 15,980 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: fluctuating with a slight upward bias; Overall view: upward - trending [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment has improved. The downstream tire industry remains highly prosperous, the external sales of tires are good, and the domestic terminal auto market has strong production and sales, better than expected. Supported by the stable and fluctuating prices of domestic and international crude oil futures recently, there are differences between long and short positions in the synthetic rubber futures market. On Wednesday night, the 2511 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a stable and fluctuating trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.13% to 11,720 yuan/ton [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillatory and strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors have improved. Although it is the peak rubber - tapping season in Southeast Asian producing areas, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market production and sales are better than expected, tire prosperity remains high, export growth has rebounded, and demand factors support. On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.10% to 16055 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillatory and strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro sentiment has improved. Although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, driven by the slight strengthening of domestic Shanghai rubber futures on Thursday night, the 2511 contract of synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price rising 0.59% to 11855 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.19% to 15,975 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry remains prosperous, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic, providing demand - side support [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.38% to 11,940 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the improvement of macro sentiment, although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, the contract still shows an oscillating and stronger trend under the background of long - short divergence [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and intraday trends being oscillatory and on the stronger side [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The reference view is to run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry is still booming, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic, providing demand - side support. On the night of Monday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.69% to 15,950 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillatory and stronger trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The reference view is to run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the domestic synthetic rubber futures market has been dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the improvement of macro sentiment, although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, in the context of long - short divergence, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend on the night of Monday this week, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.38% to 11,910 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillatory and stronger trend on Tuesday [7].

Core Drivers Analysis - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift signals a potential interest rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 75% to 90% following Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - Powell emphasized the "peculiar balance" in the labor market, indicating a shift in focus from "anti-inflation" to "recession prevention," providing long-term support for gold [1] Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, with Israeli forces entering Gaza City and the UN confirming famine in parts of Gaza, which typically increases gold's safe-haven premium [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain risks from Myanmar's tin export controls further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Market Performance - Following Powell's speech, the US dollar index fell from a high of 98.22, leading to decreased preference for dollar assets [3] - Gold futures in New York broke through the key resistance level of $3,400 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,423.4, indicating a bullish trend with a short-term target of $3,450 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold market also showed strength, with Shanghai gold futures closing at 778.96 yuan per gram and trading volume significantly increasing to 168,900 contracts [3] - The bullish momentum in gold is expected to continue, with support levels identified at 3,350-3,355 and resistance at 3,380-3,385 for the upcoming week [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with rising unemployment and disappointing job growth, leading to significant market reactions [1] Employment Data - In July, the U.S. unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% [1] - The number of non-farm jobs added in May and June was significantly revised downward, indicating a cooling labor market [1] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the U.S. stock market and the dollar index experienced substantial declines [1] - The dollar index fell by over 1%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropped by more than 12 basis points [1] - All three major U.S. stock indices fell by over 1% in early trading [1] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market concerns about the U.S. economy and employment have intensified, leading to increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September monetary policy meeting rose sharply from 37.7% to 75.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline in copper futures prices due to a stronger US dollar, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, raising questions about a potential reversal in the metals market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Copper futures prices have decreased amid a stronger US dollar [1] - Geopolitical tensions are contributing to the volatility in the metals market [1] - There is an increasing expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which may influence metal prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The article raises the question of whether the metals market can experience a reversal in light of current economic indicators and geopolitical factors [1]