Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The reference view is also rising. The main driving forces for the stock index rebound are loose liquidity and policy - favorable expectations. The anti - involution policy is beneficial to relevant industries, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations boosts the risk appetite of the technology sector. In the short term, the stock index will run with a strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in July [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the policy - end favorable expectations provide strong support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The reference view is rising. Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and rose. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1593.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day. The central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open - market operation recently has led to loose market liquidity, which supports the recovery of market risk appetite [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Oils and fats are rising strongly, eggs are making a strong rebound, and pigs are rising with fluctuations. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations [1]. 3. Summary by Product (1) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract continues to rise strongly, boosted by US biofuel policies. Tensions in the Middle East drive up crude oil prices, which in turn drive up vegetable oils. Although domestic inventory is accumulating, the external market is strong. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7980 and resistance at 8100 [2]. (2) Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract continues to rise at a high level after a sharp increase, supported by rising oil prices and the upward trend of related oils. The export of Malaysian palm oil is strong, and production has declined. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 8450 and resistance at 8600 [3]. (3) Eggs - The egg main 2508 contract makes a strong rebound, driven by speculative buying. Egg prices are at a low level, leading to a release of bottom - fishing sentiment. Spot market transactions have improved, and inventory is low. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to buy long positions with support at 3545 and resistance at 3656 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates at a high level. Domestic oil mills have a high operating rate, and inventory is accumulating. However, strong terminal demand and rising spot prices support the futures price. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 3054 and resistance at 3087 [7][9][11]. (5) Corn - The corn main 2507 contract oscillates at a high level. Support comes from wheat's minimum purchase price, rising corn starch prices, and reduced port inventory. However, concerns about policy grain release limit its increase. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 2362 and resistance at 2380 [13]. (6) Pigs - The pig 2509 contract continues to rise with fluctuations. Short - term government purchases boost market sentiment, and factors such as reduced supply and transportation restrictions support pig prices. Technically, it shows strong characteristics, and the recommended strategy is to hold long positions with support at 13795 and resistance at 13930 [14]. (7) Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract oscillates at a low level. The decline in the external raw sugar market drags down Zhengzhou sugar, but low domestic inventory and the upcoming consumption season provide some support. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 5645 and resistance at 5700 [16]. (8) Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract rises with fluctuations. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and declining port inventory support cotton prices. Although the domestic textile market is in the off - season, there are signs of improvement in external orders. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 13500 and resistance at 13600 [19]. (9) Apples - The apple main 2510 contract fluctuates strongly. Low inventory supports the futures price, but the slow pace of inventory clearance and the gap with the same period in previous years are narrowing. Attention should be paid to the growth and quality of new - season apples. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7618 and resistance at 7700 [20][22]. (10) Peanuts - The peanut main 2510 contract oscillates and closes down. The market is in a stalemate between supply and demand, with low remaining inventory in the production area and limited demand from oil mills. Technically, it is weak, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - short positions with support at 8220 and resistance at 8286 [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent tariff reductions between China and the United States on the trade dynamics in Yiwu, a major hub for small commodity exports. It highlights the mixed responses from local businesses, with some experiencing increased demand while others remain cautious or face challenges due to previous tariff policies [3][12]. Summary by Sections Tariff Adjustments - On May 14, the U.S. and China implemented reciprocal tariff reductions, with the U.S. canceling 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and suspending 24% of a 34% tariff for 90 days, while China reciprocated similarly [3][4]. - The U.S. also reduced tariffs on small packages from China, lowering the international mail tax rate from 120% to 54% [3]. Trade Volume Surge - Following the tariff reductions, container shipping bookings from China to the U.S. surged nearly 300%, with a seven-day average booking volume increasing by 277% to 21,530 standard containers [4][3]. Yiwu's Trade Performance - Yiwu's total import and export value reached 668.93 billion yuan in 2024, marking an 18.2% year-on-year increase, with exports at 588.96 billion yuan (up 17.7%) and imports at 79.97 billion yuan (up 22.2%) [7]. Market Sentiment and Business Responses - Despite the positive trade data, the atmosphere in Yiwu's international trade city appeared relatively calm, with many businesses reporting stable operations rather than a surge in new orders [7][10]. - Some businesses, particularly those dealing in seasonal products like Christmas decorations, noted that while inquiries from U.S. clients increased, actual order volumes had not yet risen significantly [10][12]. Varied Business Experiences - Different businesses reported varied impacts from the tariff changes. Some, like a seller of Christmas decorations, experienced increased production demands, while others faced delays or cancellations from U.S. clients due to previous tariff uncertainties [10][12]. - A portion of businesses expressed confidence that the tariff reductions would eventually lead to increased orders, while others remained unaffected due to their limited exposure to the U.S. market [14][15]. Broader Economic Implications - The easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China is expected to have significant implications for global supply chains, potentially restoring stability and efficiency that had been disrupted by previous tariff conflicts [16].

Group 1 - The article highlights the positive impact of the recent US-China tariff adjustments on global markets, indicating a shift towards improved trade relations [2][4][11] - Following the announcement of mutual tariff reductions, global stock markets experienced significant gains, with major indices in the US, Europe, and China all rising [5][10] - The easing of trade tensions has led to increased confidence among investors, prompting upgrades in stock ratings and target indices by financial institutions [5][11] Group 2 - The article notes a decline in demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold, which saw a sharp drop in price following the tariff news [6][8] - The reduction in tariffs has spurred a rapid increase in cross-border trade, with US companies quickly moving to ship goods that had been delayed in China [10][11] - The article emphasizes that the tariff adjustments are expected to benefit various sectors, including agriculture, as producers anticipate reduced uncertainty in trade [10][11]

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade relations and positive signals from the Geneva trade talks have led to a rebound in global stock markets, reducing the safe-haven appeal of gold [2] - Geopolitical risks have also diminished with signs of peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan, further weakening gold's demand as a safe haven [2] - US economic data shows resilience, and hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve reinforce expectations for high interest rates, which diminishes the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [2] Group 2 - The US dollar index has rebounded, surpassing the 101 mark, which typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices due to their negative correlation [2] - The spot gold price opened at 3249.83 CNY/oz and experienced a significant pullback, reaching a low of 3168.06 CNY/oz, indicating strong bearish momentum [4] - The daily closing price fell below the 20-day moving average and broke through previous key low points, signaling a bearish trend [4] Group 3 - Silver opened at 32.894 CNY/oz and followed gold's downward trend, but has not yet broken through its recent trading range, indicating a weaker performance compared to gold [6] - The closing price for silver fell below the 20-day moving average, suggesting a bearish direction [6] - Current price movements for silver are within a significant oscillation range, with a focus on the support level at 31.700 CNY/oz [6]

Key Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of the recent US-China trade agreement, which includes the cancellation of 91% of additional tariffs and a 90-day suspension of 24% tariffs, creating a more stable environment for negotiations and potentially benefiting various sectors in the A-share market [2][3] - The electronic industry is experiencing a structural recovery, with high growth in segments driven by AI infrastructure, while consumer electronics are supported by government subsidies, leading to stable performance in the Apple supply chain [19][22] - The military industry is poised for growth due to increased domestic demand and military trade opportunities, particularly following the recent India-Pakistan conflict, which has enhanced the visibility of Chinese military equipment [22][24] - The construction materials sector is seeing a recovery in profitability, with expectations of improved demand driven by real estate policies and infrastructure investments, particularly in cement and fiberglass [27][30] - The banking sector is benefiting from a series of financial policies aimed at optimizing credit structures, with a positive outlook for long-term value realization in bank stocks [32][37] Electronic Industry - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a recovery with accelerated domestic substitution, while the consumer electronics segment shows a mixed performance, with some companies benefiting from AI and global expansion [16][17] - The PCB and LED markets are experiencing growth due to increased demand from AI applications and government support, respectively [18][19] Military Industry - The recent India-Pakistan conflict has highlighted the effectiveness of Chinese military equipment, potentially leading to increased military trade opportunities with countries in the Middle East and along the Belt and Road [22][23] Construction Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to recover, with improved profitability driven by stabilizing demand in the real estate market and infrastructure investments, particularly in cement and fiberglass [27][30] Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a comprehensive set of financial policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools aimed at enhancing credit quality and supporting economic growth [32][37]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The joint statement of the China-US high-level economic and trade talks was released, with both sides agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. This eases global trade tensions and boosts market confidence [1][2][6]. - Domestically, the economy maintains steady growth and flexible policy adjustments. Overseas, major economies have differentiated monetary policies but generally focus on inflation risks. The easing of China - US economic and trade relations helps stabilize global market expectations and promotes international trade and investment [1]. - For different varieties: - **Crude oil**: Prices rose due to the progress of China - US talks but the涨幅 was later narrowed. Attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][14]. - **Gold**: With the positive news of tariff easing, gold and silver prices declined. However, geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand still provide support [3][20]. - **Stock index**: Stimulated by positive factors, the stock index is likely to break upward. For stock index futures, a bullish attitude is recommended, and for stock index options, a long - straddle strategy can be used [4][5][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: The joint statement of the China - US high - level economic and trade talks was released, with significant tariff reductions and the establishment of a consultation mechanism [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Minister of Commerce held a round - table meeting with foreign - trade enterprises, stating that the Ministry will help enterprises overcome difficulties and promote foreign - trade development [7]. - **Industry News**: In April, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new - energy vehicle production and sales growing by 43.8% and 44.2% respectively [8]. 3.2 Overseas Daily Earnings - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and other indices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the S&P 500 rose 3.26%, and London gold fell 2.73% [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Finance** - **Stock Index**: Affected by the positive news of China - US tariff negotiations, the stock index rebounded. It is recommended to be bullish on stock index futures and use a long - straddle strategy for stock index options [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond prices generally fell. With the progress of China - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and the price of treasury bond futures declined with increased short - term volatility [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose due to China - US talks but the increase was later narrowed. Attention should be paid to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose at night. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rebounded. The short - term trend is expected to continue to rise [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market may rebound in the short term [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures closed up. The market is affected by inventory and supply - demand fundamentals, and the short - term trend needs to be observed [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices declined due to tariff easing but still have some support [3][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and other factors [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may also fluctuate widely. Market expectations for supply improvement have been partially digested [22]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum contract may be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term [23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices may show an oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price outlook is pessimistic [26]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating. Coke's second - round price increase failed, and a price cut is expected [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand has support in the short term but may be weak in the medium term [28]. - **Steel**: The steel market faces a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with short - term exports remaining stable [29]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend of oils and fats is strong. The supply of soybeans is expected to increase, and the palm oil inventory may rise [31]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term trend of soybean meal is strong, and the increase in US soybean imports may have a negative impact on the domestic market [32]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Corn prices rose this week but may enter an oscillating phase [33]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices rose due to macro - level positives. The short - term trend is strong [34]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market sentiment improved due to tariff easing. The short - term outlook is positive, but the main obstacle is the excess of shipping capacity [35].

Financial Market Response - The financial markets reacted positively to the announcement of tariff reductions, with spot gold prices dropping to $3,220 per ounce, marking a 3.21% decline, reflecting optimism about the economic outlook [3] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index surged nearly 2.98%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.72%, indicating a favorable response to the easing of US-China trade tensions [3] - US stock index futures also saw significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 2.8% and the Nasdaq increasing by 3.6%, showcasing a notable boost in investor confidence [3] - The Chinese yuan reached a six-month high, signaling increased market confidence in the Chinese economy [3] - European shipping companies, such as Maersk, saw stock prices rise by nearly 12%, reflecting the positive impact of improved global trade conditions [3] Economic Perspectives - Economists view the tariff adjustments as a significant positive development, with expectations that the new rates will alleviate concerns over short-term global supply chain disruptions [4] - The chief economist at ING estimated that reducing tariffs to 30% could restore normal trade activities between the US and China, leading to an upward revision of China's annual economic growth forecast to 4.7% [4] - The temporary nature of the tariff reductions is acknowledged, with the need for further negotiations and potential agreements in the coming months [4] Exporter Insights - Exporters are encouraged by the joint statement, viewing the next 90 days as a critical period to capitalize on reduced cost pressures and increase business activity [5] - Companies are expected to expedite shipments and enhance their presence in the US market during this window of opportunity [5] - Some businesses are shifting from passive to proactive international trade strategies, focusing on building competitive advantages in anticipation of future changes in trade policies [6]

Section 1: General Investment Ratings and Core Views - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided in the content - **Report Core Views**: - For gold 2508, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a decline. The overall view is to be bearish in the short - term due to the easing of Sino - US relations [1]. - For nickel 2506, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a slightly weak sideways movement. The overall view is to take a wait - and - see approach because of the strong upstream nickel ore and weak downstream stainless steel [1]. Section 2: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: On the night of May 12, Shanghai gold fell to the 760 level and fluctuated, corresponding to New York gold fluctuating around 3200. Attention should be paid to the technical support at this position, and if it is broken, the willingness of long - position holders to liquidate may increase, and the gold price will remain weak [3]. - **Core Logic**: After the release of the "Joint Statement of the Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" on May 12, Sino - US economic and trade relations entered a stage of easing, which reduced global trade uncertainties in the short - term. As a result, safe - haven assets such as gold and government bonds were adjusted, and the risk appetite of the stock market and commodities increased [3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: After a strong rebound on the night of last Friday, the nickel price fluctuated narrowly around 126,000 during the day yesterday, and then opened lower and moved lower at night, falling back to around 124,000. The nickel price did not respond much to macro - level positive news [4]. - **Core Logic**: The market's expectation of the Philippine nickel ore export ban policy has increased. It is expected that the Philippine government will implement a nickel ore export ban starting from June 2025, which has largely promoted the nickel price to rebound from the bottom. The nickel ore market is strong, while the demand is weak. The inventory of stainless steel is at a high level and the destocking is slow, and the price continues to be weak, while nickel sulfate is running stably. Technically, the futures price faces certain technical pressure at the end - April high after rebounding from the bottom and is expected to maintain a sideways movement [4].