晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-09-11 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2511 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：受益于中美经贸关系缓和，美联储降息预期升温，宏观因素有 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillatory and strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors have improved. Although it is the peak rubber - tapping season in Southeast Asian producing areas, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market production and sales are better than expected, tire prosperity remains high, export growth has rebounded, and demand factors support. On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.10% to 16055 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillatory and strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro sentiment has improved. Although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, driven by the slight strengthening of domestic Shanghai rubber futures on Thursday night, the 2511 contract of synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price rising 0.59% to 11855 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.19% to 15,975 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry remains prosperous, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic, providing demand - side support [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.38% to 11,940 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the improvement of macro sentiment, although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, the contract still shows an oscillating and stronger trend under the background of long - short divergence [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and intraday trends being oscillatory and on the stronger side [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The reference view is to run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry is still booming, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic, providing demand - side support. On the night of Monday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.69% to 15,950 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillatory and stronger trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The reference view is to run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the domestic synthetic rubber futures market has been dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the improvement of macro sentiment, although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, in the context of long - short divergence, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend on the night of Monday this week, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.38% to 11,910 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillatory and stronger trend on Tuesday [7].

Core Points - The Chinese A-shares continued to rise on August 12, with major indices collectively moving upward, marking a new annual closing high for the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3665 points, up 0.5%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11351 points, up 0.53%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 2409 points, up 1.24% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 188.15 billion RMB, an increase of about 54.5 billion RMB compared to the previous trading day [1] Economic Context - On August 12, a joint statement was released from the US and China regarding the Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks, where the US committed to adjusting tariffs on Chinese goods, including those from Hong Kong and Macau, by suspending the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff for 90 days [1] - China also agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on US goods and related non-tariff countermeasures for the same duration [1] - Analysts suggest that the temporary easing of US-China trade relations is likely to enhance market risk appetite, positively impacting the sentiment towards A-shares [1] Sector Performance - Financial sectors performed notably well on the same day, with multi-financial and insurance sectors rising by 2.29% and 1.1% respectively, leading the gains among all industry sectors [1] - The multi-financial sector was highlighted as the top performer across A-share industries [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The reference view is also rising. The main driving forces for the stock index rebound are loose liquidity and policy - favorable expectations. The anti - involution policy is beneficial to relevant industries, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations boosts the risk appetite of the technology sector. In the short term, the stock index will run with a strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to the policy guidance of the important meeting in July [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising. The core logic is that the policy - end favorable expectations provide strong support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The reference view is rising. Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and rose. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1593.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day. The central bank's net injection of liquidity in the open - market operation recently has led to loose market liquidity, which supports the recovery of market risk appetite [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance. Oils and fats are rising strongly, eggs are making a strong rebound, and pigs are rising with fluctuations. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations [1]. 3. Summary by Product (1) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main 2509 contract continues to rise strongly, boosted by US biofuel policies. Tensions in the Middle East drive up crude oil prices, which in turn drive up vegetable oils. Although domestic inventory is accumulating, the external market is strong. Technically, it is in a strong position, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7980 and resistance at 8100 [2]. (2) Palm Oil - The palm oil main 2509 contract continues to rise at a high level after a sharp increase, supported by rising oil prices and the upward trend of related oils. The export of Malaysian palm oil is strong, and production has declined. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 8450 and resistance at 8600 [3]. (3) Eggs - The egg main 2508 contract makes a strong rebound, driven by speculative buying. Egg prices are at a low level, leading to a release of bottom - fishing sentiment. Spot market transactions have improved, and inventory is low. Technically, it is strong, and the recommended strategy is to buy long positions with support at 3545 and resistance at 3656 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates at a high level. Domestic oil mills have a high operating rate, and inventory is accumulating. However, strong terminal demand and rising spot prices support the futures price. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 3054 and resistance at 3087 [7][9][11]. (5) Corn - The corn main 2507 contract oscillates at a high level. Support comes from wheat's minimum purchase price, rising corn starch prices, and reduced port inventory. However, concerns about policy grain release limit its increase. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 2362 and resistance at 2380 [13]. (6) Pigs - The pig 2509 contract continues to rise with fluctuations. Short - term government purchases boost market sentiment, and factors such as reduced supply and transportation restrictions support pig prices. Technically, it shows strong characteristics, and the recommended strategy is to hold long positions with support at 13795 and resistance at 13930 [14]. (7) Sugar - The sugar main 2509 contract oscillates at a low level. The decline in the external raw sugar market drags down Zhengzhou sugar, but low domestic inventory and the upcoming consumption season provide some support. The recommended strategy is short - term trading with support at 5645 and resistance at 5700 [16]. (8) Cotton - The cotton main 2509 contract rises with fluctuations. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and declining port inventory support cotton prices. Although the domestic textile market is in the off - season, there are signs of improvement in external orders. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 13500 and resistance at 13600 [19]. (9) Apples - The apple main 2510 contract fluctuates strongly. Low inventory supports the futures price, but the slow pace of inventory clearance and the gap with the same period in previous years are narrowing. Attention should be paid to the growth and quality of new - season apples. Technically, it is relatively strong, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - long positions with support at 7618 and resistance at 7700 [20][22]. (10) Peanuts - The peanut main 2510 contract oscillates and closes down. The market is in a stalemate between supply and demand, with low remaining inventory in the production area and limited demand from oil mills. Technically, it is weak, and the recommended strategy is to hold light - short positions with support at 8220 and resistance at 8286 [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent tariff reductions between China and the United States on the trade dynamics in Yiwu, a major hub for small commodity exports. It highlights the mixed responses from local businesses, with some experiencing increased demand while others remain cautious or face challenges due to previous tariff policies [3][12]. Summary by Sections Tariff Adjustments - On May 14, the U.S. and China implemented reciprocal tariff reductions, with the U.S. canceling 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and suspending 24% of a 34% tariff for 90 days, while China reciprocated similarly [3][4]. - The U.S. also reduced tariffs on small packages from China, lowering the international mail tax rate from 120% to 54% [3]. Trade Volume Surge - Following the tariff reductions, container shipping bookings from China to the U.S. surged nearly 300%, with a seven-day average booking volume increasing by 277% to 21,530 standard containers [4][3]. Yiwu's Trade Performance - Yiwu's total import and export value reached 668.93 billion yuan in 2024, marking an 18.2% year-on-year increase, with exports at 588.96 billion yuan (up 17.7%) and imports at 79.97 billion yuan (up 22.2%) [7]. Market Sentiment and Business Responses - Despite the positive trade data, the atmosphere in Yiwu's international trade city appeared relatively calm, with many businesses reporting stable operations rather than a surge in new orders [7][10]. - Some businesses, particularly those dealing in seasonal products like Christmas decorations, noted that while inquiries from U.S. clients increased, actual order volumes had not yet risen significantly [10][12]. Varied Business Experiences - Different businesses reported varied impacts from the tariff changes. Some, like a seller of Christmas decorations, experienced increased production demands, while others faced delays or cancellations from U.S. clients due to previous tariff uncertainties [10][12]. - A portion of businesses expressed confidence that the tariff reductions would eventually lead to increased orders, while others remained unaffected due to their limited exposure to the U.S. market [14][15]. Broader Economic Implications - The easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China is expected to have significant implications for global supply chains, potentially restoring stability and efficiency that had been disrupted by previous tariff conflicts [16].

Group 1 - The article highlights the positive impact of the recent US-China tariff adjustments on global markets, indicating a shift towards improved trade relations [2][4][11] - Following the announcement of mutual tariff reductions, global stock markets experienced significant gains, with major indices in the US, Europe, and China all rising [5][10] - The easing of trade tensions has led to increased confidence among investors, prompting upgrades in stock ratings and target indices by financial institutions [5][11] Group 2 - The article notes a decline in demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold, which saw a sharp drop in price following the tariff news [6][8] - The reduction in tariffs has spurred a rapid increase in cross-border trade, with US companies quickly moving to ship goods that had been delayed in China [10][11] - The article emphasizes that the tariff adjustments are expected to benefit various sectors, including agriculture, as producers anticipate reduced uncertainty in trade [10][11]

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade relations and positive signals from the Geneva trade talks have led to a rebound in global stock markets, reducing the safe-haven appeal of gold [2] - Geopolitical risks have also diminished with signs of peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan, further weakening gold's demand as a safe haven [2] - US economic data shows resilience, and hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve reinforce expectations for high interest rates, which diminishes the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [2] Group 2 - The US dollar index has rebounded, surpassing the 101 mark, which typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices due to their negative correlation [2] - The spot gold price opened at 3249.83 CNY/oz and experienced a significant pullback, reaching a low of 3168.06 CNY/oz, indicating strong bearish momentum [4] - The daily closing price fell below the 20-day moving average and broke through previous key low points, signaling a bearish trend [4] Group 3 - Silver opened at 32.894 CNY/oz and followed gold's downward trend, but has not yet broken through its recent trading range, indicating a weaker performance compared to gold [6] - The closing price for silver fell below the 20-day moving average, suggesting a bearish direction [6] - Current price movements for silver are within a significant oscillation range, with a focus on the support level at 31.700 CNY/oz [6]