Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to show weakness, with the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) declining by 0.72% and a trading volume of 18 million HKD, indicating a premium trading frequency with a premium rate of 0.16% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology sector is expected to benefit from the easing of US-China trade relations, which may enhance risk appetite, while A-share technology stocks are showing support from fundamentals [3] - The top holdings of the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF include Alibaba (18.37% weight), Tencent (15.68% weight), and Xiaomi (8.63% weight), with a total market capitalization of 3208.25 billion HKD [7] Group 2 - Some high-dividend stocks like Agricultural Bank of China and China Shenhua are performing well, while growth stocks such as Alibaba and Xiaomi are underperforming [5] - The ETF is characterized by a "technology + dividend" strategy, providing a balance between offensive and defensive positions, with low valuation metrics enhancing its attractiveness for investors [6] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority provided liquidity support of 630 million HKD to maintain financial market stability [2]

Market Performance - On October 31, the three major indices in the A-share market adjusted, with the ChiNext Index falling over 2.3% [1] Analysis of Market Trends - The adjustment in the A-share market is influenced by multiple factors, including a phase of consensus in China-US economic and trade negotiations, leading to expectations of easing tariffs and regulatory measures, prompting some funds to realize profits [2] - The October manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating short-term fluctuations in manufacturing activity, with production and new orders indices also declining [2] - Despite the overall PMI decline, high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors maintained PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively, indicating continued expansion and supporting economic stability [2] Future Outlook - The signs of easing in China-US trade relations are expected to boost market sentiment in the short term, although specific implementation details need to be monitored [3] - Given that prior policy expectations have been partially realized, the market may enter a phase of consolidation, awaiting further economic data and policy signals [3] - It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation, focusing on sectors benefiting from improved trade conditions, such as technology manufacturing, and opportunities in consumer goods and services amid domestic demand recovery [3] - In the medium to long term, the A-share market is expected to retain good allocation value due to ongoing domestic industrial policy efforts, potential monetary policy easing, and the release of capital market reform dividends [3]

Group 1: PTA Industry Overview - Domestic PTA spot prices have been declining since mid-August, leading to continued pressure on PTA production companies. The processing fee for PTA has dropped to a historical low of around 100 yuan/ton, with unit losses reaching 330 yuan/ton [1] - Despite the poor operating conditions for PTA, the operating load of PTA facilities has only decreased slightly, standing at 75.07% as of October 27, which is a decline of 3.55 percentage points since mid-August and 7.68 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The weekly production of PTA has fallen to approximately 1.4 million tons, slightly below market demand levels, indicating a gradual easing of supply-demand tensions [1] Group 2: Polyester Industry Performance - The polyester industry is currently in a demand peak season, with operating loads remaining high at 89.64% as of October 27, an increase of 1.05 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Profitability is observed in the production of POY and DTY polyester products, while losses in other polyester products are manageable [2] - There are plans for production cuts in some facilities, and the launch of new capacities has been delayed, indicating a potential weakening in polyester demand expectations [2] Group 3: Apparel Export Trends - China's apparel export value reaches hundreds of billions of dollars, with external demand being a significant component of the domestic apparel industry [3] - In September, the export value of clothing and accessories was $12.453 billion, a year-on-year decline of 7.97%. Cumulatively, from January to September, the export value was $115.227 billion, a decrease of $3.248 billion or 2.74% year-on-year [3] - Approximately 6% of total apparel exports are directed to the U.S. As U.S.-China trade tensions ease, market confidence is expected to improve, benefiting the apparel and chemical fiber industries [3]

Economic Policy Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes both short-term and long-term economic growth, focusing on technology innovation, manufacturing, and consumption[2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide detailed industry planning, which will be crucial for future economic strategies[4] - The importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing is highlighted, as a decline in this sector can lead to slower economic growth and increased foreign dependency[5] Market Trends and Predictions - Recent easing of US-China trade tensions is expected to enhance market risk appetite, contributing to a bullish market outlook[2] - The US inflation rate has decreased, with the September CPI at 3%, alleviating concerns about stagflation and paving the way for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[16][17] - The A-share market has seen a rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points, indicating a potential upward trend in equity markets[9] Bond Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China has resumed government bond trading, signaling a move to guide interest rates lower, which is favorable for the bond market in the short term[12][13] - However, the bond yield may not return to previous lows due to earlier market adjustments and ongoing risk factors[14] - Mid-term adjustments in the bond market are anticipated, influenced by changes in market risk appetite and inflation trends[14] Consumption and Domestic Demand - The focus on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption is evident, with policies expected to target healthcare, education, and elderly care sectors[6] - The government aims to stabilize employment and market expectations to support economic recovery, especially in light of declining real estate sales and consumer spending[6][7]

Report Information - Report Date: October 20, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng [1] - Tel: 021 - 53686158 [1] - E - mail: zhanghesheng@shzq.com [1] - SAC Number: S0870523100004 [1] - Report Title: Sino - US Economic and Trade Relations Ease, Important Meetings Provide Support — Fixed Income & Macroeconomic Weekly Report (20251013 - 20251019) [3] Market Performance Summary Stock Market - US stock market: The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 2.14%, 1.70%, and 1.56% respectively, while the Nasdaq China Technology Index decreased by 7.27% from October 13 - 19, 2025 [3]. - Hong Kong stock market: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 3.97% from October 13 - 19, 2025 [3]. - A - share market: The wind All - A Index decreased by 3.45%. Among different indices, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and wind Micro - cap stocks changed by - 2.44%, - 2.22%, - 5.17%, - 4.62%, - 4.15%, and - 1.61% respectively. From a sector style perspective, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets declined, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index decreased by 4.91%. Among 30 CITIC industries, 4 rose and 26 fell, with banks and coal leading the gainers with over 4.0% increase. Gold, bank, and coal ETFs also performed well with weekly gains over 4% [4]. Bond Market - Chinese bond market: The 10 - year Treasury futures contract increased by 0.29% compared to October 10, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond increased by 0.40 BP to 1.8246% compared to October 11, 2025. Yields of different - term bonds had mixed changes. The bond market leverage level increased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repo volume rising from 5.61 trillion yuan on October 11 to 8.04 trillion yuan on October 17, 2025 [5][6][7]. - US bond market: US Treasury yields decreased. As of October 17, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 3 BP to 4.02% compared to October 10, 2025. Yields of all terms decreased, and the yield curve shifted downward [8]. Currency and Commodity Market - Currency market: The US dollar index decreased by 0.27%. The US dollar depreciated against the euro, pound, and yen, with changes of - 0.29%, - 0.55%, and - 0.39% respectively. The US dollar had mixed performance against the offshore and onshore RMB, with the exchange rate against the offshore RMB decreasing by 0.29% to 7.1269 and against the onshore RMB increasing by 0.05% to 7.1265 [9]. - Commodity market: Gold prices increased. The London gold spot price rose by 6.30% to $4224.75 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 6.24% to $4234.90 per ounce. In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold spot price rose by 11.09% to 997.17 yuan per gram, and the futures price rose by 10.91% to 998.20 yuan per gram [9]. Market Outlook and Recommendations - The new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations is expected to ease Sino - US economic and trade relations and boost investors' risk appetite [10]. - With the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the convening of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, investors' risk appetite is expected to recover, A - shares are expected to stabilize, and structural opportunities in sectors such as gold, rare earths, AI, computing power, energy storage, solid - state batteries, and innovative drugs are worth exploring [11]. - The short - term volatility of gold may increase, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [12]. - The bond market has investment value as the current absolute yield is at a recent high, such as the 10 - year Treasury yield above 1.80% [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report predicts that both the Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and the synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract will maintain a stable and fluctuating trend on Thursday, with a slightly upward bias [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: fluctuating with a slight upward bias; Overall view: upward - trending [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry remains prosperous, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic. On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained a stable and fluctuating trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.16% to 15,980 yuan/ton [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: fluctuating with a slight upward bias; Overall view: upward - trending [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment has improved. The downstream tire industry remains highly prosperous, the external sales of tires are good, and the domestic terminal auto market has strong production and sales, better than expected. Supported by the stable and fluctuating prices of domestic and international crude oil futures recently, there are differences between long and short positions in the synthetic rubber futures market. On Wednesday night, the 2511 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a stable and fluctuating trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.13% to 11,720 yuan/ton [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillatory and strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors have improved. Although it is the peak rubber - tapping season in Southeast Asian producing areas, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market production and sales are better than expected, tire prosperity remains high, export growth has rebounded, and demand factors support. On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising 1.10% to 16055 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillatory and strong, medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro sentiment has improved. Although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, driven by the slight strengthening of domestic Shanghai rubber futures on Thursday night, the 2511 contract of synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price rising 0.59% to 11855 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Friday [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.19% to 15,975 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry remains prosperous, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic, providing demand - side support [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On Tuesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.38% to 11,940 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain this trend on Wednesday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the improvement of macro sentiment, although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, the contract still shows an oscillating and stronger trend under the background of long - short divergence [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and intraday trends being oscillatory and on the stronger side [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The reference view is to run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry is still booming, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic, providing demand - side support. On the night of Monday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.69% to 15,950 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillatory and stronger trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The reference view is to run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the domestic synthetic rubber futures market has been dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the improvement of macro sentiment, although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, in the context of long - short divergence, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend on the night of Monday this week, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.38% to 11,910 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillatory and stronger trend on Tuesday [7].

Core Points - The Chinese A-shares continued to rise on August 12, with major indices collectively moving upward, marking a new annual closing high for the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3665 points, up 0.5%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11351 points, up 0.53%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 2409 points, up 1.24% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 188.15 billion RMB, an increase of about 54.5 billion RMB compared to the previous trading day [1] Economic Context - On August 12, a joint statement was released from the US and China regarding the Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks, where the US committed to adjusting tariffs on Chinese goods, including those from Hong Kong and Macau, by suspending the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff for 90 days [1] - China also agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on US goods and related non-tariff countermeasures for the same duration [1] - Analysts suggest that the temporary easing of US-China trade relations is likely to enhance market risk appetite, positively impacting the sentiment towards A-shares [1] Sector Performance - Financial sectors performed notably well on the same day, with multi-financial and insurance sectors rising by 2.29% and 1.1% respectively, leading the gains among all industry sectors [1] - The multi-financial sector was highlighted as the top performer across A-share industries [1]