Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a sluggish domestic consumption environment and increased strategic expenses aimed at achieving long-term sustainable development goals [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for 25H1 was 2.391 billion yuan, down 3.58% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 197 million yuan, a decrease of 42.66% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 162 million yuan, down 46.61% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin slightly increased by 0.21 percentage points to 68.39% in 25H1 [3] - Operating cash flow net amount was 95 million yuan, a decrease of 31.92% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced cash collection from declining revenue [3] Group 2: Brand and Channel Performance - The brand performance varied, with Haggis and Le Fei Ye showing growth, while the main brand and group purchase business faced pressure [2] - Revenue changes for brands in 25H1 included: Baoxini -9.60%, Haggis +8.37%, Baoniao -22.53%, Le Fei Ye +20.48%, and Kaimi -11.41% [2] - Online sales increased by 17.65%, while group purchase revenue fell by 20.94% [2] Group 3: Cost Structure and Inventory Management - The expense ratio increased significantly by 5.67 percentage points to 54.41%, with sales expenses rising due to channel optimization and increased online promotion costs [3] - Inventory as of 25H1 was 1.138 billion yuan, down 5.52% from the beginning of the year, indicating good inventory control [3] - Finished goods inventory turnover days were 271 days [3] Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Rating - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024 and 25H1 down to 405 million yuan and 474 million yuan respectively, while increasing the 27-year forecast to 542 million yuan [4] - The long-term strategy focuses on high-quality development and brand investment, which is expected to enhance brand competitiveness [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a divergence in brand performance, with increased expenses leading to pressure on net profit. The company is focusing on high-quality and sustainable development, which has resulted in strategic investments despite a challenging domestic consumption environment [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5,254 million, with a decline to 5,068 million in 2025, followed by a recovery to 5,860 million by 2027. - Net profit is expected to decrease from 697.85 million in 2023 to 404.65 million in 2025, before increasing to 541.66 million in 2027 [1][8]. - **Brand Performance**: - Revenue changes for various brands in H1 2025: Baoxini (-9.60%), Haggis (+8.37%), Baonia (-22.53%), Lefeiye (+20.48%), and Kaimiqie & TB (-11.41%). Lefeiye's growth is attributed to its positioning in the outdoor segment [7]. - **Channel Performance**: - Online sales increased by 17.65%, while direct sales grew by 2.33%. However, franchise and group purchase channels saw declines of 16.66% and 20.94%, respectively [7]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - Gross margin remained stable, slightly increasing to 68.39%. However, the expense ratio rose significantly, leading to a net profit margin decline to 8.25% [7][8]. - **Cash Flow and Inventory Management**: - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 0.95 billion, down 31.92% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased revenue and increased brand investments. Inventory was well-controlled, with a reduction of 5.52% from the beginning of the year [7]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down to 4.05 billion and 4.74 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14 and 12 [7][8].

Group 1 - The company's revenue in the first half of 2025 decreased by 3.6% year-on-year to 2.39 billion yuan, while the gross margin increased by 0.1 percentage points to 67.1% [1] - Sales expense ratio increased by 3.7 percentage points to 44.2%, primarily due to revenue decline, increased brand promotion costs, and an increase in the number of direct-operated stores [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 42.7% year-on-year to 200 million yuan, with a net profit margin decrease of 5.6 percentage points to 8.2% [1] Group 2 - The second quarter continued the downward trend, with revenue declining by 3.5% year-on-year to 1.09 billion yuan and net profit down 71.4% to 30 million yuan [1] - The main brand reported a revenue decline of 9.6%, with a decrease in single-store revenue of 10.4% and a net reduction of 4 stores to 817 [2] - The outdoor brand Le Fei Ye experienced steady growth in sales, increasing by 20.5% [2] Group 3 - Online channels showed strong growth, with an increase of 17.6%, while direct sales and franchise channels saw mixed results [2] - The company adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 410 million yuan, 450 million yuan, and 480 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.4% for 2025 [4] - The company maintains a positive long-term growth outlook despite short-term revenue and expense pressures [4]