新拓代建规模逆市增长，稳居行业首位。1H2025 公司新拓代建项目总建筑面积同比增长13.9%至1989 万平方米，位居行业首位。公司致力于有质量的规模扩张，1H2025 公司新拓代建项目代建费预计约50 亿元，同比增长19.1%，代建费增速高于新拓面积增速。 机构：财通证券 研究员：房诚琦/陈思宇/何裕佳 深耕代建领域十余载，国内代建第一股。公司是国内房地产轻资产开发模式的先行者与引领者，核心业 务模式包括三大代建主业（政府代建、商业代建、资方代建）及三大配套服务（金融服务、产城服务、 产业链服务），2020 年公司在港交所主板上市，成为国内代建第一股。 投资建议： 考虑到公司持续深耕代建领域，已形成规模优势与品牌效应，新拓代建面积和销售额多年 稳居行业榜首，在手订单充裕，项目启动逐步提效。我们预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为6.3 亿元、6.6 亿元、7.2 亿元，EPS 为0.32 元、0.33 元、0.36 元，对应PE 为8.9/8.5/7.8 倍。首次覆盖，给 予"买入"评级。 风险提示：房地产市场下行超预期、代建行业竞争加剧、业主方违约风险。 重视股东回报，首次中期派息。公司自上市 ...

财通证券（601108）发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予绿城管理控股(09979)"买入"评级，主要考虑到公司 持续深耕代建领域，已形成规模优势与品牌效应，新拓代建面积和销售额多年稳居行业榜首，在手订单 充裕，项目启动逐步提效。 财通证券主要观点如下： 深耕代建领域十余载，国内代建第一股 公司是国内房地产轻资产开发模式的先行者与引领者，核心业务模式包括三大代建主业(政府代建、商 业代建、资方代建)及三大配套服务(金融服务、产城服务、产业链服务)，2020年公司在港交所主板上 市，成为国内代建第一股。 公司自上市以来，持续重视股东回报，2022-2023年分红比例均超100%。1H2025公司首次进行中期分 红，派息态度积极。此外，公司在中期业绩发布后持续回购，已累计回购1000万股，回购总额2791万 元，截至10月28日，回购股份已完成注销。 风险提示 房地产市场下行超预期、代建行业竞争加剧、业主方违约风险。 新拓代建规模逆市增长，稳居行业首位 1H2025公司新拓代建项目总建筑面积同比增长13.9%至1989万平方米，位居行业首位。公司致力于有质 量的规模扩张，1H2025公司新拓代建项目代建费预计约50亿元， ...

新拓代建规模逆市增长，稳居行业首位 1H2025公司新拓代建项目总建筑面积同比增长13.9%至1989万平方米，位居行业首位。公司致力于有质 量的规模扩张，1H2025公司新拓代建项目代建费预计约50亿元，同比增长19.1%，代建费增速高于新拓 面积增速。 重视股东回报，首次中期派息 公司自上市以来，持续重视股东回报，2022-2023年分红比例均超100%。1H2025公司首次进行中期分 红，派息态度积极。此外，公司在中期业绩发布后持续回购，已累计回购1000万股，回购总额2791万 元，截至10月28日，回购股份已完成注销。 智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予绿城管理控股(09979)"买入"评级，主要考虑 到公司持续深耕代建领域，已形成规模优势与品牌效应，新拓代建面积和销售额多年稳居行业榜首，在 手订单充裕，项目启动逐步提效。 财通证券主要观点如下： 深耕代建领域十余载，国内代建第一股 公司是国内房地产轻资产开发模式的先行者与引领者，核心业务模式包括三大代建主业(政府代建、商 业代建、资方代建)及三大配套服务(金融服务、产城服务、产业链服务)，2020年公司在港交所主板上 市，成为国 ...

Core Insights - The real estate industry is undergoing a transformation, with construction agency services becoming a significant direction for companies, leading to accelerated expansion among leading construction firms [1][2] - The competition in the construction agency sector is intensifying, prompting companies to adhere to long-term strategies rather than pursuing blind scale expansion [1][4] Industry Overview - The overall scale of construction agency services has significantly increased, with six leading companies adding over 10 million square meters of new construction agency scale in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The top 20 construction agency firms saw a year-on-year increase of 31% in new signed construction area, totaling 15,771 million square meters [2] - Green City Management leads the sector with over 2,700 million square meters of new construction area, approximately double that of the second-ranked firm [2] Types of Construction Agency Services - Construction agency services are categorized into government, commercial, and capital agency types, each serving different market needs [3] - Government agency services focus on public projects such as affordable housing and schools, while commercial agency services are the most prevalent, providing management services to clients lacking development capabilities [3] - Capital agency services are the most complex, often involving financial institutions to manage distressed assets [3] Competitive Landscape - The competition among construction agency firms is becoming more specialized, with companies focusing on niche markets to establish differentiated advantages [4] - Recent government policies have increased the precision and detail of construction agency regulations, raising the professional requirements for firms [4][5] - Companies are encouraged to broaden their focus to include urban renewal projects and affordable housing, as these areas present significant opportunities [5] Strategic Recommendations - Firms are advised to deepen their engagement in specialized fields and enhance service quality to achieve sustainable growth [5][6] - Emphasis on long-term strategies, project fulfillment rates, and client satisfaction is crucial for success in a competitive environment [5][7] - Companies should innovate their business models and explore high-value, high-barrier niche markets to avoid price competition [5][6] Emerging Trends - The shift towards managing distressed assets reflects a broader change in the real estate industry's underlying logic, moving from new development to revitalizing existing assets [6][7] - The "guarantee delivery" policy has created substantial demand for professional intervention in construction and delivery projects, providing clear business opportunities for capable construction agencies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The future of the construction agency industry will maintain a "stronger will remain strong" and "characteristics will prevail" development trend, emphasizing "long-termism" and companies with "core competitiveness" to build a moat in the transition from "blue ocean to red ocean" in the construction agency track [1][35]. Group 1: Industry Development Phase - The construction agency sector is entering a phase of stable development after three years of rapid and "barbaric" expansion, with increasing competition and market saturation [5][6]. - The new construction scale in 2024 reached 215 million square meters, doubling from 2020, but the growth rate has significantly slowed, with a year-on-year increase of only 13%, down 14 percentage points from 2023 [6][7]. - The industry is influenced by several factors, including a sluggish macroeconomic environment, increased competition, and short-term uncertainties from policy changes [7][8]. Group 2: Challenges Facing the Industry - The construction agency industry faces multiple challenges, including the contradiction between high-quality development and price competition, as well as the shrinking profit margins against the backdrop of excessive profit commitments [11][12]. - The logic for clients selecting construction agencies has evolved from "single service procurement" to "strategic ecosystem co-construction," prioritizing long-term partnerships and risk-sharing capabilities [11][12]. Group 3: Core Competitiveness of Leading Companies - Four leading companies—Greentown Management, Blue City Group, Jindi Management, and Runzhi Management—have accumulated advantages and experience during the "blue ocean" period, which serve as their capital and confidence in facing the "red ocean" [14][35]. - Greentown Management leads in scale, supported by a standardized system that enhances product reputation and brand premium [15][16]. - Blue City Group has established significant advantages in niche areas, particularly in affordable housing and public construction, and emphasizes long-term partnerships with government clients [20][21]. - Jindi Management has a robust project management system and a diverse client base, with a focus on high-quality customer structures [25][26]. - Runzhi Management, as a subsidiary of China Resources Land, has a strong presence in government projects and public construction, leveraging its central enterprise resources for competitive advantages [27][28]. Group 4: Long-termism as a Development Foundation - The construction agency industry, transitioning to a light-asset model, has a stronger counter-cyclical effect, becoming a vital survival strategy for many companies [35]. - Companies should focus on building core competitiveness, exploring niche markets, and creating long-term stable partnerships with clients to maximize value [37][38].

Core Insights - Greentown Management Holdings Limited, known as the "first stock in construction agency," reported a revenue of 3.441 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - The company's gross profit was 1.706 billion yuan, showing a decline of 1.0% compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 800 million yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year [2] Business Performance - As of the end of 2024, Greentown Management has established construction agency projects in 130 major cities across 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China [2] - The total contracted project area reached 12.56 million square meters, an increase of 5.0% from the previous year [2] - The area under construction was 53.96 million square meters, up 2.9% year-on-year [2] - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects was 720.1 billion yuan, accounting for 77.3% of the overall saleable value, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2] Revenue Breakdown - Commercial construction agency services were the largest source of revenue and profit for Greentown Management, generating 2.753 billion yuan, a rise of 17.3% year-on-year, and accounting for 80% of total revenue [2] - Government construction agency revenue reached 626 million yuan, making up 18.2% of total revenue [2] New Project Development - In 2024, Greentown Management expanded its new project contracted area to 36.5 million square meters, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.4% compared to 2023 [3] - The estimated construction fees for new projects were 9.32 billion yuan, which is a decrease of about 10.1% year-on-year [3] - The company noted that despite a 5% decline in new contract area across the construction agency industry, it managed to maintain positive growth [3]