Core Viewpoint - The company is a pioneer in the light asset development model in China's real estate sector, focusing on three main construction services and three supporting services, and has become the first listed company in this field in China [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a 13.9% year-on-year increase in newly expanded construction projects, totaling 19.89 million square meters, maintaining its leading position in the industry [1] - The projected construction fees for newly expanded projects in 1H2025 are approximately 5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, indicating that the growth rate of construction fees outpaces the growth rate of newly expanded area [1] Group 2: Shareholder Returns - The company has consistently prioritized shareholder returns since its listing, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 100% in both 2022 and 2023 [1] - For the first time, the company declared an interim dividend in 1H2025, demonstrating a proactive approach to shareholder returns [1] - Following the interim results announcement, the company has repurchased a total of 10 million shares, with a total repurchase amount of 27.91 million yuan, and these repurchased shares have been fully canceled as of October 28 [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its competitive edge in the construction sector, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 630 million yuan, 660 million yuan, and 720 million yuan, respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.32 yuan, 0.33 yuan, and 0.36 yuan [2] - The company is assigned a "buy" rating based on its established scale advantages and brand effects, with a projected PE ratio of 8.9, 8.5, and 7.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities initiates coverage on Greentown Management Holdings (09979) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's strong position in the construction agency sector, its scale advantages, brand effect, and robust order backlog, which is expected to enhance project initiation efficiency [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Greentown Management is a pioneer and leader in the light-asset development model in China's real estate sector, focusing on three main construction agency businesses: government agency, commercial agency, and capital agency, along with three supporting services: financial services, urban-rural integration services, and industrial chain services [2]. - The company was listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2020, becoming the first construction agency stock in China [2]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - In the first half of 2025, the company’s newly expanded construction agency project total building area increased by 13.9% year-on-year to 19.89 million square meters, maintaining its leading position in the industry [3]. - The estimated construction agency fees for new projects in the first half of 2025 are approximately 5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, indicating that the growth rate of agency fees outpaces that of the newly expanded area [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The company has consistently prioritized shareholder returns since its listing, with dividend payout ratios exceeding 100% in both 2022 and 2023 [4]. - For the first half of 2025, the company declared its first interim dividend, demonstrating a proactive approach to shareholder returns [4]. - Following the mid-term earnings release, the company has also engaged in share buybacks, having repurchased a total of 10 million shares for a total amount of 27.91 million yuan, with the repurchased shares completed for cancellation as of October 28 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Caitong Securities initiates coverage on Greentown Management Holdings (09979) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's strong position in the construction agency sector, its scale advantages, brand effect, and robust order backlog, which is expected to enhance project initiation efficiency [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Greentown Management is a pioneer in the light-asset development model in China's real estate sector, focusing on three main construction agency businesses (government, commercial, and financial agency) and three supporting services (financial, urban development, and industrial chain services) [1] - The company became the first listed construction agency in China when it went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2020 [1] Group 2: Project Expansion - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a 13.9% year-on-year increase in newly expanded construction projects, totaling 19.89 million square meters, maintaining its leading position in the industry [2] - The projected construction agency fees for new projects in 1H2025 are approximately 5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, indicating that the growth rate of agency fees is higher than that of the newly expanded area [2] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - Since its listing, the company has prioritized shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 100% in both 2022 and 2023 [3] - In 1H2025, the company declared its first interim dividend, demonstrating a proactive approach to shareholder returns [3] - Following the mid-term earnings release, the company has repurchased a total of 10 million shares, amounting to 27.91 million yuan, with the repurchased shares already completed for cancellation as of October 28 [3]

Core Insights - The real estate industry is undergoing a transformation, with construction agency services becoming a significant direction for companies, leading to accelerated expansion among leading construction firms [1][2] - The competition in the construction agency sector is intensifying, prompting companies to adhere to long-term strategies rather than pursuing blind scale expansion [1][4] Industry Overview - The overall scale of construction agency services has significantly increased, with six leading companies adding over 10 million square meters of new construction agency scale in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The top 20 construction agency firms saw a year-on-year increase of 31% in new signed construction area, totaling 15,771 million square meters [2] - Green City Management leads the sector with over 2,700 million square meters of new construction area, approximately double that of the second-ranked firm [2] Types of Construction Agency Services - Construction agency services are categorized into government, commercial, and capital agency types, each serving different market needs [3] - Government agency services focus on public projects such as affordable housing and schools, while commercial agency services are the most prevalent, providing management services to clients lacking development capabilities [3] - Capital agency services are the most complex, often involving financial institutions to manage distressed assets [3] Competitive Landscape - The competition among construction agency firms is becoming more specialized, with companies focusing on niche markets to establish differentiated advantages [4] - Recent government policies have increased the precision and detail of construction agency regulations, raising the professional requirements for firms [4][5] - Companies are encouraged to broaden their focus to include urban renewal projects and affordable housing, as these areas present significant opportunities [5] Strategic Recommendations - Firms are advised to deepen their engagement in specialized fields and enhance service quality to achieve sustainable growth [5][6] - Emphasis on long-term strategies, project fulfillment rates, and client satisfaction is crucial for success in a competitive environment [5][7] - Companies should innovate their business models and explore high-value, high-barrier niche markets to avoid price competition [5][6] Emerging Trends - The shift towards managing distressed assets reflects a broader change in the real estate industry's underlying logic, moving from new development to revitalizing existing assets [6][7] - The "guarantee delivery" policy has created substantial demand for professional intervention in construction and delivery projects, providing clear business opportunities for capable construction agencies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The future of the construction agency industry will maintain a "stronger will remain strong" and "characteristics will prevail" development trend, emphasizing "long-termism" and companies with "core competitiveness" to build a moat in the transition from "blue ocean to red ocean" in the construction agency track [1][35]. Group 1: Industry Development Phase - The construction agency sector is entering a phase of stable development after three years of rapid and "barbaric" expansion, with increasing competition and market saturation [5][6]. - The new construction scale in 2024 reached 215 million square meters, doubling from 2020, but the growth rate has significantly slowed, with a year-on-year increase of only 13%, down 14 percentage points from 2023 [6][7]. - The industry is influenced by several factors, including a sluggish macroeconomic environment, increased competition, and short-term uncertainties from policy changes [7][8]. Group 2: Challenges Facing the Industry - The construction agency industry faces multiple challenges, including the contradiction between high-quality development and price competition, as well as the shrinking profit margins against the backdrop of excessive profit commitments [11][12]. - The logic for clients selecting construction agencies has evolved from "single service procurement" to "strategic ecosystem co-construction," prioritizing long-term partnerships and risk-sharing capabilities [11][12]. Group 3: Core Competitiveness of Leading Companies - Four leading companies—Greentown Management, Blue City Group, Jindi Management, and Runzhi Management—have accumulated advantages and experience during the "blue ocean" period, which serve as their capital and confidence in facing the "red ocean" [14][35]. - Greentown Management leads in scale, supported by a standardized system that enhances product reputation and brand premium [15][16]. - Blue City Group has established significant advantages in niche areas, particularly in affordable housing and public construction, and emphasizes long-term partnerships with government clients [20][21]. - Jindi Management has a robust project management system and a diverse client base, with a focus on high-quality customer structures [25][26]. - Runzhi Management, as a subsidiary of China Resources Land, has a strong presence in government projects and public construction, leveraging its central enterprise resources for competitive advantages [27][28]. Group 4: Long-termism as a Development Foundation - The construction agency industry, transitioning to a light-asset model, has a stronger counter-cyclical effect, becoming a vital survival strategy for many companies [35]. - Companies should focus on building core competitiveness, exploring niche markets, and creating long-term stable partnerships with clients to maximize value [37][38].

Core Insights - Greentown Management Holdings Limited, known as the "first stock in construction agency," reported a revenue of 3.441 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - The company's gross profit was 1.706 billion yuan, showing a decline of 1.0% compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 800 million yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year [2] Business Performance - As of the end of 2024, Greentown Management has established construction agency projects in 130 major cities across 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China [2] - The total contracted project area reached 12.56 million square meters, an increase of 5.0% from the previous year [2] - The area under construction was 53.96 million square meters, up 2.9% year-on-year [2] - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects was 720.1 billion yuan, accounting for 77.3% of the overall saleable value, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2] Revenue Breakdown - Commercial construction agency services were the largest source of revenue and profit for Greentown Management, generating 2.753 billion yuan, a rise of 17.3% year-on-year, and accounting for 80% of total revenue [2] - Government construction agency revenue reached 626 million yuan, making up 18.2% of total revenue [2] New Project Development - In 2024, Greentown Management expanded its new project contracted area to 36.5 million square meters, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.4% compared to 2023 [3] - The estimated construction fees for new projects were 9.32 billion yuan, which is a decrease of about 10.1% year-on-year [3] - The company noted that despite a 5% decline in new contract area across the construction agency industry, it managed to maintain positive growth [3]