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信用策略随笔:现券交易中,“其他”债券怎么对应?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-04 06:43
现券交易中,"其他"债券怎么对应? 证券研究报告 信用策略随笔 本篇聚焦:从有限可得的数据维度中,如何相对准确和细化地跟踪二 永债的机构交易行为? 一、"其他"债券主要指哪些? "其他"债券主要包括商业银行普通债、二级资本债、PPN 等除了单 独列示的其他银行间债券类型。 对比现券交易数据和成交数据,大致对应商金债、二永债、PPN这三 类。 固定收益 | 固定收益专题 二、券种和期限分类上,还能进一步细拆吗? 现券交易数据披露的期限分类多根据到期期限,基于个券成交明细, 按到期期限分类与之对应,大致有如下几处对应: 1、5 年内"其他"债券多为商金债和 PPN 5 年内的"其他"债券中约 85%以上为商金债和 PPN,其中商金债约 占 50%,PPN 约占 35%;此外还有少量的 TLAC 债、二永债等债券。 由于商金债基本不含权,对应到期期限即为实际剩余期限;部分 PPN 含权,到期期限分布和行权期限分布不完全一致,但均主要落在 5 年以内。 故而若再进一步细分期限,或有较大偏差。但对基本不参与私募债交 易的机构而言,5 年内及细分期限的现券交易基本可看作为其对商金债买 入或卖出。 2、5 年以上"其他"债 ...
债市阿尔法追踪:5月:债市表现分化,利率债下跌信用债上涨
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-04 08:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - In May, the bond market showed differentiation. Interest rate bonds mostly had rising yields, while credit bonds generally had falling yields. There was no obvious α in the industry dimension of credit bonds, a significant negative α in 10 - year - plus treasury bonds, and a certain α in insurance company bonds. Among public bond funds, hybrid bond - type secondary funds had the leading average increase in May [1][2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Each Variety Yield Panorama - In May, the bond market performance was differentiated. For interest rate bonds, the yields of treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds increased by an average of 4BP, and the yields of local government bonds decreased by an average of 1BP. For credit bonds, almost all credit bond varieties had falling yields, with the 7 - year, AA + and below implicit - rated commercial bank ordinary bonds having the largest yield decline of 19BP on average [11]. - As of May 31, the historical percentile levels of interest rate bond yields were relatively high, especially for short - term varieties. Most interest rate bond varieties had a three - year historical percentile level of over 8%, and the 1 - year treasury bond had the highest three - year historical percentile of 20%. For credit bonds, low - grade long - term financial bond varieties had relatively high historical percentile levels of yields, with the 7 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year AA - bank secondary capital bonds having the top three percentile levels of 18%, 17%, and 15% respectively [13]. 2. Industry Alpha Tracking - In the industry dimension, credit bonds in various industries generally rose in May, with an average net - price change of 0.14%. The increases in each industry were relatively balanced, and there was no obvious α. The mining and financial industries had relatively small increases of 0.09% and 0.07% respectively [17]. - In the real - estate bond sector, AAA - rated and public - enterprise real - estate bonds had obvious positive α in May. The average net - price increase of AAA real - estate bonds was 0.18%, significantly higher than other real - estate bond varieties. Public - enterprise bonds had an average increase of 1.38%, far higher than other enterprise - type real - estate bonds. The top - rising bond was Vanke Bond with a net - price increase of about 4%, while the top - falling bonds were 24 Lianfa MTN004 and 22 Longhu 03, with net - price decreases of 0.56% and 4.48% respectively [21]. - In the urban investment bond sector, all regional urban investment bonds had rising net prices in May, with an overall increase of 0.15%. Hebei and Tianjin had obvious positive α, with average increases of 0.23% and 0.22% respectively. Guangxi had the smallest increase of 0.06%. AA - urban investment bonds had negative α, with an average net - price decrease of 0.02% [28]. - In the financial bond sector, there was little difference in the net - price changes of financial bonds of various ratings and types in May, and no obvious α appeared. The top - rising bonds were 24 Yuandong IV, 24 Yuandong Leasing MTN005, and 25 Ganzhou Leasing 01, with net - price increases of 1.03%, 1.03%, and 0.84% respectively. The top - falling bonds were 21 Shenzhen Jushenghua 02 and 21 Shenzhen Jushenghua 01, with net - price decreases of 6.55% and 6.69% respectively [31]. 3. Term Alpha Tracking - In May, 10 - year - plus treasury bonds had a significant negative α. The change rate of 10 - year - plus treasury bonds in May was - 1.5%, significantly higher than other interest rate bond varieties. The reasons were that the yield increase of ultra - long - term interest rate bonds in May exceeded other term varieties, and the yield increase of ultra - long - term treasury bonds was significantly higher than that of local government bonds [37]. - Among long - term representative bonds, the ultra - long - term credit bond 23 Sanxia K2 led the increase in May, with a monthly increase of 0.49% [42]. 4. Sub - Alpha Tracking - In May, insurance company bonds had a certain α. The average increase of insurance company bonds in May was 0.1%, 0.03% higher than that of commercial bank ordinary bonds and sub - bonds. The α of insurance company bonds mainly came from the fact that the yield decline of insurance capital supplementary bonds within 7 years in May was greater than that of commercial bank bonds and sub - bonds, and the long - term bond scale of these three varieties was relatively small, so short - and medium - term interest rate fluctuations had a more significant impact on the overall price [44]. 5. May Public Bond Fund Ranking - In May, hybrid bond - type secondary funds led other types of public bond funds in average change rate. The average change rate of hybrid bond - type secondary funds was 0.41%, that of hybrid bond - type primary funds was 0.27%, that of short - term pure - bond funds was 0.18%, and that of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds was 0.12% [47].