1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the bond market remained weak. The ultra - long - end interest rates continued to rise while the short - end rates recovered, steepening the yield curve. The trading desks, represented by securities firms and broad - based funds, continued to reduce their bond allocations, but the reduction intensity of securities firms weakened and they started to increase their allocation to interest - rate bonds. The allocation - oriented institutions such as banks and insurance companies increased their bond allocations, but the scale was limited and difficult to reverse the overall interest - rate trend. The top signal of interest rates might need to wait until the allocation power strengthened to the point where the selling pressure from trading institutions could no longer push interest rates significantly higher [3][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 12 - month Interest - rate Bonds Drag Bond Custody Increment to Drop Significantly, Credit and Certificates of Deposit Also Decline - In December, the total bond custody scale increased by 30.26 billion yuan month - on - month, a significant decrease of 117.73 billion yuan compared with November. The custody increment of interest - rate bonds was 69.59 billion yuan, about 78 billion yuan lower than the previous month. The custody increments of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - financial bonds all decreased significantly. The net financing of medium - term notes and short - term commercial papers also decreased significantly, leading to a lower custody increment of credit bonds. The custody scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to decline by 62.24 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 23.66 billion yuan compared with the previous month [3][10]. 3.2 Trading Desks' Reduction of Allocations Continues, Allocation - Oriented Desks Lack Incentive to Increase Allocations 3.2.1 Broad - based Funds - In December, the bond custody volume of broad - based funds decreased by 9.92 billion yuan month - on - month, compared with an increase of 22.16 billion yuan in the previous month. The reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit was 34.96 billion yuan, an increase of 34.01 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The reduction in treasury bonds, enterprise bonds, short - term commercial papers, PPNs, and credit - asset - backed securities increased, while the increase in medium - term notes and local bonds decreased. The reduction in commercial - bank bonds decreased, and they started to increase their allocation to policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of broad - based funds on bonds increased, and the reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit was particularly significant, but the reduction in commercial - bank bonds decreased and the allocation to policy - financial bonds increased [17][19]. 3.2.2 Securities Firms - In December, the bond custody volume of securities firms decreased by 0.23 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 13.98 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They started to increase their allocation to treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and commercial - bank bonds, increased their allocation to local bonds, but started to reduce their allocation to medium - term notes and short - term commercial papers, and the reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit, PPNs, and enterprise bonds increased. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of securities firms on bonds decreased, mainly as they started to increase their allocation to interest - rate bonds but started to reduce their allocation to credit bonds [27]. 3.2.3 Insurance Companies - In December, the bond custody volume of insurance companies increased by 4 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 1.15 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They increased their allocation to treasury bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit, decreased their reduction in commercial - bank bonds, but started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds and medium - term notes, decreased their allocation to financial bonds on the Clearstream, and increased their reduction in enterprise bonds. Relative to the stock, insurance companies started to increase their allocation to bonds, mainly increasing their allocation to treasury bonds and local bonds [33]. 3.2.4 Overseas Institutions - In December, the bond custody scale of overseas institutions decreased by 15.09 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 3.41 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds, increased their reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit and treasury bonds, but started to increase their allocation to local bonds and medium - term notes. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of overseas institutions on bonds increased slightly, mainly increasing their reduction in policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit, but decreasing their reduction in treasury bonds and increasing their allocation to local bonds and medium - term notes [34]. 3.2.5 Other Institutions - In December, the bond custody volume of other institutions including the central bank increased by 18.24 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase narrowing by 39.22 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They decreased their allocation to treasury bonds and local bonds, started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds, but increased their allocation to inter - bank certificates of deposit. The change in the bond custody structure of other institutions might indicate that the underlying assets of repurchase agreements were still mainly local bonds, but some were replaced from policy - financial bonds to treasury bonds [39]. 3.2.6 Commercial Banks - In December, the bond custody scale of commercial banks increased by 25.73 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase narrowing by 52.58 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The increase in local bonds, treasury bonds, financial bonds on the Clearstream, and medium - term notes decreased, the reduction in short - term commercial papers, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and commercial - bank bonds increased, and the increase in policy - financial bonds increased. This also reflected the impact of the change in the structure of repurchase - agreement underlying assets to some extent. Relative to the stock, commercial banks also increased their allocation to bonds to some extent, increasing their allocation to policy - financial bonds and treasury bonds, increasing their allocation to local bonds, decreasing their reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit, but decreasing their allocation to financial bonds on the Clearstream and medium - term notes, and increasing their reduction in short - term commercial papers and commercial - bank bonds [45]. 3.2.7 Credit Unions - In December, the bond custody scale of credit unions decreased by 9.82 billion yuan month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.98 billion yuan in the previous month. They started to reduce their allocation to inter - bank certificates of deposit and treasury bonds, increased their reduction in policy - financial bonds and commercial - bank bonds, and decreased their allocation to local bonds. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of credit unions on bonds increased, mainly reducing their allocation to certificates of deposit and policy - financial bonds [46]. 3.3 The Bond - market Leverage Ratio Seasonally Rebounded in December, and Securities Firms Reduced Leverage but It Remained at a High Level - In December, affected by short - term disturbances in the liabilities of some institutions at the end of the year and the increase in the demand for borrowing funds, the bond - market leverage ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8%, which was in line with the seasonal pattern. By institution, the leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 103.6%; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased by 1.4 percentage points month - on - month to 118.4%, which was also in line with the seasonal characteristics; the leverage ratio of securities firms decreased significantly by 14.1 percentage points month - on - month to 217.3%, but it was still at a high level; the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal - person products increased by 1.7 percentage points month - on - month to 115.4%, which was at a relatively low level in the past three years. In the broad - based funds, the repurchase balances of various institutions rebounded. Among them, the repurchase balances of money - market funds, other products, and insurance companies reached record highs, and the repurchase balance of wealth - management products reached a new high since 2025, but the repurchase balance of non - money - market funds remained at a relatively low level since 2023 [4][52].

Group 1: Regulatory Actions - In 2025, the Trading Association imposed self-discipline penalties on 143 entities, focusing on five key areas including structured issuance and fundraising management [1] - The penalties included the first-time crackdown on issues such as low-price underwriting of financial bonds and violations related to rating agencies and fund misappropriation [1] - A total of 44 structured issuance institutions were penalized, and 32 institutions faced penalties for trading violations, including price manipulation and interest transfer [1] Group 2: Debt Financing Market - In 2025, the average issuance rate for PPN was 2.52%, down 43 basis points from 2024 [2] - The Trading Association facilitated the registration of 1.24 trillion yuan in targeted debt financing tools, with 1.1 trillion yuan issued, representing 14% of the overall market [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 158.3 billion yuan, with a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan [4] - The operation had a bidding amount and winning amount of 158.3 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.40% [4] Group 4: Bond Issuance Activities - China Pingmei Shenma Group issued 1 billion yuan in medium-term notes at an interest rate of 2.82%, with funds intended for debt repayment [8] - Anyang Steel plans to issue 400 million yuan in medium-term notes to supplement working capital, rated AA+ [9] - Zhengzhou Economic Development Capital Group completed the issuance of 650 million yuan in corporate bonds at a rate of 2.40%, aimed at repaying existing debts [10] Group 5: Market Developments - Shanghai Pudong Capital Investment Operation Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 10 billion yuan, focusing on asset management and optimization of state-owned capital [14] - The Trading Association reduced the debt financing tool quota by 16.731 billion yuan across eight companies [16][17]

Group 1 - The report focuses on how to accurately and finely track the institutional trading behavior of perpetual bonds from the limited available data dimensions [1][10] - "Other" bonds mainly refer to commercial bank ordinary bonds, secondary capital bonds, and PPN, excluding other separately listed interbank bond types [1][10] - The trading data and transaction data roughly correspond to three categories: commercial bank bonds, perpetual bonds, and PPN [1][10] Group 2 - For bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, over 85% are commercial bank bonds and PPN, with commercial bank bonds accounting for about 50% and PPN for about 35% [2][12] - The remaining portion includes a small amount of TLAC bonds and perpetual bonds [2][12] - For bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years, approximately 90% to 95% are secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds, with a small amount of TLAC bonds and PPN [3][23] Group 3 - Bank perpetual bonds are primarily classified as "other" bonds with a maturity of over 30 years, showing a high correlation in scale and trend with the trading volume of bank perpetual bonds [4][26] - Secondary capital bonds are the main component of "other" bonds with maturities between 5 to 15 years, with a significant correlation observed in the 7-10 year and 10-15 year maturity segments [5][31] - The issuance period of secondary capital bonds is generally structured as 5+5 years or 10+5 years, leading to a fixed difference of 5 years between the exercise period and maturity period [5][40]

Group 1 - The Henan provincial government has issued guidelines to promote high-quality investment attraction, emphasizing the transformation of urban investment companies into industrial investment companies and encouraging mergers [1] - The guidelines support provincial and municipal industrial investment companies to establish offshore investment companies and strengthen capital services [1] - There is encouragement for state-owned enterprises and investment funds to collaborate with financial institutions for project financing and to issue domestic and foreign bonds for capital injection [1] Group 2 - Henan province plans to issue a total of 165.73 billion yuan in local bonds for urban development, shantytown renovation, and other projects [3] - The bonds will include general bonds for education and water conservancy projects, as well as special bonds for social undertakings [3] - The issuance is scheduled for June 24, with the bonds set to start accruing interest on June 25 [3] Group 3 - Zhengzhou city has introduced policies to accelerate the development of technology finance, including support for issuing technology innovation bonds [4] - The policies aim to enhance financing channels for technology sectors and encourage local enterprises to apply for provincial bond issuance incentives [4] Group 4 - Shandong, Xinjiang, and Guizhou provinces are planning to issue "special" new special bonds totaling approximately 40.2 billion yuan for various government investment projects [6] - The bonds will have different terms, with Shandong issuing 119.98 billion yuan over 15 years, Xinjiang issuing 135.4 billion yuan and 143 billion yuan over 20 and 30 years respectively, and Guizhou issuing 4 billion yuan over 30 years [6] Group 5 - Shima shares plans to issue up to 1 billion yuan in convertible corporate bonds, with proceeds aimed at repaying company debts [7] - Muyuan Foods has submitted a registration for a 5 billion yuan corporate bond issuance, also intended for debt repayment [8] - The Zhumadian Huanghe Information Industry Investment Company is set to issue 700 million yuan in corporate bonds [9] Group 6 - The first batch of private venture capital institutions has successfully issued technology innovation bonds, with Jiangsu Yida issuing 150 million yuan and Shenzhen Dongfang Fuhai issuing 400 million yuan [10][11] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 170 billion yuan in book-entry interest-bearing government bonds with a coupon rate of 1.43% [12] Group 7 - The market has seen a net financing decrease in urban investment bonds, with a reported net financing of -39.7 billion yuan in the first five months of the year [18] - The total issuance of technology innovation bonds has reached 738.5 billion yuan, with significant growth in non-financial industry issuances [19]