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招商证券国际:华润啤酒不断上升派息比率可助支撑估值 维持“增持”评级
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 08:42
Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International maintains a target price of HKD 33.5 for China Resources Beer (00291) and an "Accumulate" rating, highlighting the company's strong free cash flow and low capital expenditure needs [1] Group 1: Dividend Policy - The company has increased its interim dividend payout ratio to 26% and expects the payout ratio to exceed 50% by 2025, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [1] - The robust balance sheet and stable profit margins suggest that dividends will remain a core part of the investment rationale [1] Group 2: Sales Performance - In the second half of the year, sales growth for China Resources Beer in July and August is expected to outpace that of the first half [1] - Management anticipates that performance in the second half will improve due to retail and digital expansion, as well as enhanced customer relationship management [1]
摩根士丹利:上调银河娱乐目标价至44港元
Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised Galaxy Entertainment's dividend payout ratio forecast for 2025 to 2027 to 60% and increased the per-share dividend forecast [1] - Despite slight downward adjustments to EBITDA and earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027, the target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised to HKD 44 [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share, maintaining a "market perform" rating [1] Group 2 - There is a risk of valuation premium decline if competitors resume dividend payouts and Galaxy Entertainment's market share continues to weaken [1]
大行评级|大摩:上调银河娱乐目标价至44港元 评级“与大市同步”
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-03 03:58
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecast for Galaxy Entertainment, raising the dividend payout ratio prediction for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, with a 19% increase in the per-share dividend forecast [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher operating expense expectations [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, 2.58, and 2.73 to HKD 2.36, 2.56, and 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Outlook - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "market perform" rating, but cautions that if competitors resume dividends while Galaxy's market share remains weak, some potential premium may reverse [1]
小摩:碧桂园服务上半年盈利未达预期 但派息指引上调
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 07:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Country Garden Services (06098) experienced a 15% year-on-year decline in core net profit for the first half of 2025, which is 6% lower than the bank's forecast, despite a 10% increase in revenue [1] - The decline in performance is attributed to a significant increase in administrative expenses, which rose by 23% year-on-year [1] - The management has committed to a dividend payout ratio of 60% for the fiscal year 2025, up from 33% in 2024, suggesting a dividend yield of 6.5% to 7% [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the property management gross profit was unexpectedly better than anticipated, with revenue and gross profit from property management increasing by 7% and 2% year-on-year, respectively, surpassing the bank's estimates of 3% and 18% [1] - However, the gross margin continued to contract, with all segments except community value-added services experiencing a year-on-year decline in gross margin [1] - The overall gross margin decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 18.5%, and the core net profit margin fell by 2.4 percentage points to 7%, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the bank's forecast [1] Group 3 - The bank notes that the market consensus for earnings per share for Country Garden Services may be revised downward, as the current market consensus predicts net profit to remain flat year-on-year [2] - However, based on the company's latest dividend target, the forecast for dividends per share is expected to be adjusted upward [2] - After the market initially digests the disappointing performance, the bank believes that the stock price reaction may turn positive due to the increased dividend guidance [2]
小摩:碧桂园服务(06098)上半年盈利未达预期 但派息指引上调
智通财经网· 2025-08-27 07:34
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Country Garden Services (06098) experienced a 15% year-on-year decline in core net profit for the first half of 2025, which is 6% lower than the bank's forecast, despite a 10% increase in revenue. The decline in profit is attributed to a 23% increase in administrative expenses. However, management has committed to a dividend payout ratio of 60% for the fiscal year 2025, up from 33% in 2024, indicating a dividend yield of 6.5% to 7% [1] Group 1 - Country Garden Services' property management gross profit was unexpectedly better than anticipated, with revenue and gross profit increasing by 7% and 2% year-on-year, respectively, surpassing Morgan Stanley's estimates of 3% and 18% [1] - The gross margin for property management decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 21.8% year-on-year, while the gross margin for community value-added services fell by 8.6 percentage points to 30.4%. Overall gross margin declined by 2.6 percentage points to 18.5%, and core net profit margin decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 7%, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than Morgan Stanley's forecast [1] - Accounts receivable showed no improvement, with net accounts receivable days remaining flat at 157 days year-on-year, compared to 147 days at the end of 2024, which is among the highest levels in the industry. Total accounts receivable increased by 8% to 19.9 billion RMB [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley indicates that the market consensus for Country Garden Services' earnings per share may be revised downward, as the current market consensus predicts net profit to remain flat year-on-year. However, based on the company's latest dividend target, the forecast for dividends per share is expected to be revised upward [2] - After the market initially digests the disappointing earnings, Morgan Stanley believes that the stock price reaction may turn positive due to the upward adjustment in dividend guidance [2]
高盛:升东亚银行目标价至11.8港元 兼上调盈测 评级“沽售”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 07:35
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reported that East Asia Bank's (00023) first-half revenue met expectations, but net interest income and fee income were below forecasts, offset by trading gains [1] - Earnings per share exceeded Goldman Sachs' expectations by 14%, with a dividend payout ratio of 45%, slightly below the forecast of 47% [1] - The interim dividend was set at 39 HKD cents, approximately 10% higher than Goldman Sachs' estimate of 35 HKD cents [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its earnings per share estimates for East Asia Bank for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 8%, 11%, and 24%, respectively, and increased the target price by 12% from 10.5 HKD to 11.8 HKD, maintaining a "sell" rating [1] - The management of East Asia Bank anticipates headwinds for net interest margin in the second half of 2025 and maintains a conservative outlook on loan growth [1] - Loan growth is projected to be 2.1%, 2.8%, and 4% year-on-year for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with deposit growth estimates adjusted to 5.5%, 3.9%, and 2.9% [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs assumes a net interest margin sensitivity (NIM beta) of 0.16 for the current interest rate cut cycle, slightly lower than the previous period [2] - Net interest margin forecasts for East Asia Bank for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.78%, 1.8%, and 1.75%, with corresponding net interest income expected to decline by 15%, increase by 5%, and increase by 0.4% [2] - Non-interest income estimates for fiscal years 2025 to 2027 have been raised by 11%, 8%, and 6% due to better-than-expected trading income performance [2] Group 4 - Credit costs for East Asia Bank are expected to be 97 basis points this year, normalizing to 80 and 55 basis points in 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Projected dividend payout ratios for fiscal years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 46%, 49%, and 51%, indicating an average payout ratio of 49% over the next three years, compared to an average of about 40% over the past five years [2]
高盛:升东亚银行(00023)目标价至11.8港元 兼上调盈测 评级“沽售”
智通财经网· 2025-08-22 07:24
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reported that East Asia Bank's (00023) first-half revenue met expectations, but net interest income and fee income fell short, offset by trading gains [1] - Earnings per share exceeded Goldman Sachs' expectations by 14%, with a dividend payout ratio of 45%, slightly below the forecasted 47% [1] - The mid-term dividend was set at 39 HKD cents, approximately 10% higher than Goldman Sachs' estimate of 35 HKD cents [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its earnings per share forecasts for East Asia Bank for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 8%, 11%, and 24%, respectively, and increased the target price by 12% from 10.5 HKD to 11.8 HKD, maintaining a "sell" rating [1] - The bank's management anticipates headwinds for net interest margin in the second half of 2025 and maintains a conservative outlook on loan growth [1] - Loan growth forecasts for 2025 to 2027 were adjusted to 2.1%, 2.8%, and 4%, while deposit growth estimates were raised to 5.5%, 3.9%, and 2.9% [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs assumed a net interest margin sensitivity (NIM beta) of 0.16 times for the current interest rate cut cycle, slightly lower than the previous period [2] - Net interest margin forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 1.78%, 1.8%, and 1.75%, with corresponding net interest income expected to decline by 15%, increase by 5%, and increase by 0.4% [2] - Non-interest income estimates for 2025 to 2027 were raised by 11%, 8%, and 6% due to better-than-expected trading income performance [2] Group 4 - Credit costs for East Asia Bank are expected to be 97 basis points this year, normalizing to 80 and 55 basis points in 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Projected dividend payout ratios for 2025 to 2027 are 46%, 49%, and 51%, indicating an average payout ratio of 49% over the next three years, compared to an average of about 40% over the past five years [2]
麦格理:升银河娱乐(00027)目标价至55.6港元 维持“跑赢大市”评级
智通财经网· 2025-08-13 09:30
Core Insights - Macquarie's report indicates that Galaxy Entertainment's Q2 net revenue increased by 10% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, with gaming revenue rising by 16% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, slightly below the firm's forecast by 1% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the firm's forecast by 2% [1] - The firm has adjusted its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment down by 0.1% and 0.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, while increasing the 2027 forecast by 0.6% [1] - The target price for the group has been raised by 4%, from HKD 53.6 to HKD 55.6, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] Dividend and Financial Health - Galaxy Entertainment declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.7, with a payout ratio of 58%, up from 50% in the same period last year, exceeding market expectations [1] - The firm believes that due to the group's strong free cash flow and net cash accumulation capabilities, it can maintain this payout ratio [1] - The expected payout ratio for the group this year is 60%, translating to a cash dividend yield of 3.5% [1]