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大行评级丨高盛:上调中远海控AH股目标价 上调2025至27年净利润预测
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-05 08:34
Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that China COSCO Shipping Holdings maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on long-term freight rates due to over 25% of existing cargo ships being over 20 years old and needing to be scrapped between 2028 and 2030 [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The management highlights strong growth in cargo volume, particularly on routes in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa [1] - There is a noted rebound in spot freight rates in October, driven by Black Friday and the anticipated tariffs on Chinese goods leading to early shipments [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The third-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, attributed to strong freight performance, especially in Asia routes, and better cost control compared to peers [1] - Based on the performance, net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been raised by 25% to 46%, reflecting better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and delays in port fees between China and the U.S. [1] Group 3: Target Price Adjustments - The target price for H-shares has been increased from HKD 11.5 to HKD 12.5, while the target price for A-shares has been raised from CNY 14.7 to CNY 16 [1] - The rating remains at "Neutral" [1]
CHINA COAL(1898.HK):UNATTRACTIVE DIVIDEND DESPITE DECENT QOQ GROWTH IN 3Q25
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-30 20:41
Core Viewpoint - China Coal's earnings increased by 16% QoQ to RMB3.86 billion in 3Q25, driven by higher realized coal prices and increased olefin sales volume, but a significant drop of 53% QoQ is expected in 4Q25 due to higher costs [1][3] Financial Performance - Under CAS, earnings surged 28% QoQ to RMB4.78 billion in 3Q25, attributed to a 4% decline in unit coal production costs [2] - The average selling price (ASP) of coal rose by 7% QoQ, with both thermal and coking coal prices increasing [3] - Olefin sales volume grew by 6% QoQ, following a major production ramp-up, leading to a 28% fall in unit costs for olefin [3] Earnings Forecasts - Earnings forecasts for 2025-27 have been increased by 2-6% after adjustments, with expectations of flat earnings in the next two years despite a slight decline in average coal prices [4] - The company's H shares are projected to offer an unattractive dividend yield of 3.4-3.5% for 2025-27, with a payout ratio of 35-36% in 2023-24 [4] Valuation - The target price has been raised from HK$7.21 to HK$7.57, reflecting the increases in earnings forecasts, maintaining a target valuation of a 5% average dividend yield for 2025-27 [5]
德昌电机控股一度跌超6% 花旗指其股价上行空间有限
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 02:16
Core Viewpoint - Citi has raised its earnings forecast for DCH Holdings from 5% to 16% for the years 2024 to 2028, citing the development of liquid cooling pumps and humanoid robot joints as key drivers [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - DCH Holdings' stock price initially dropped over 6%, currently down 4.98% at HKD 41.6, with a trading volume of HKD 193 million [1] - The stock has appreciated 2.8 times this year and approximately 55% this month [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The target price for DCH Holdings has been increased from HKD 29 to HKD 45, reflecting a forecasted P/E ratio of 19 times for next year, which is 2 standard deviations above the average and the highest since 2017 [1] - The target P/E for the ordinary automotive and industrial product segments is set at 11 times, while the new business segments are projected at a P/E of 300 times [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - The investment rating has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to limited upside potential in the stock price [1] - The upcoming interim results are expected to show a moderate profit growth of about 10%, largely benefiting from foreign exchange factors [1]
大行评级|大摩:微升中国人寿目标价至25.7港元 上调2025至27年每股盈测
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-19 03:53
Group 1 - Morgan Stanley updated its model following China Life's half-year performance report, raising the earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027 by 13.1%, 1%, and 1.9% respectively, primarily benefiting from the stock market rise and steady sales growth in the fiscal year 2025 [1] - With improvements in profit margins, the new business value forecasts for each fiscal year increased by 6.6%, 8.1%, and 8.5% respectively [1] - Morgan Stanley slightly raised the target price for China Life's H-shares from HKD 25 to HKD 25.7, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1]
大行评级|大摩:上调银河娱乐目标价至44港元 评级“与大市同步”
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-03 03:58
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecast for Galaxy Entertainment, raising the dividend payout ratio prediction for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, with a 19% increase in the per-share dividend forecast [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher operating expense expectations [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, 2.58, and 2.73 to HKD 2.36, 2.56, and 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Outlook - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "market perform" rating, but cautions that if competitors resume dividends while Galaxy's market share remains weak, some potential premium may reverse [1]
太平洋:下调迎驾贡酒目标价至52.02元,给予增持评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-08-27 00:53
Core Viewpoint - The company continues to face pressure in its performance, with a significant decline in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025, leading to a downward adjustment of the target price to 52.02 yuan and a "buy" rating [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.13 billion yuan, down 18.19% year-on-year [2]. - For Q2 2024, revenue was 1.13 billion yuan, a decline of 24.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 302 million yuan, down 35.20% year-on-year [2]. - The high base from the previous year contributed to the increased revenue decline in Q2 [2]. Product and Regional Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor was 2.54 billion yuan and 450 million yuan, respectively, representing declines of 14.0% and 32.5% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor revenues were 820 million yuan and 210 million yuan, with year-on-year declines of 23.6% and 32.9% [2]. - Revenue from domestic and foreign markets in H1 2025 was 2.36 billion yuan and 630 million yuan, down 12.0% and 33.0% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 73.6%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2 gross margin was 68.3%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Sales and management expense ratios for H1 2025 were 9.7% and 4.0%, respectively, with increases of 1.8 and 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 35.8%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2 net profit margin was 27.1%, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cash Flow and Channel Dynamics - Sales collection for H1 2025 was 3.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.4% year-on-year, with a net operating cash flow of 317 million yuan, down 45.7% year-on-year [3]. - As of the end of Q2 2025, the number of domestic and foreign distributors was 761 and 622, respectively, with a net increase of 10 distributors since the end of 2024, indicating a stable distribution system [2]. Investment Outlook - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast based on H1 2025 performance and recent sales trends, projecting revenue growth rates of -16%, 5%, and 6% for 2025-2027, and net profit growth rates of -17%, 8%, and 8% for the same period [4]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.68 yuan, 2.89 yuan, and 3.12 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18x, 16x, and 15x [4].
中银国际:升中国通信服务(00552.HK)目标价至5.15港元 重申评级“买入”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 09:29
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Communication Services (00552.HK) achieved a net profit growth of 0.2% year-on-year to 2.13 billion RMB in the first half of the year, which met expectations, while total revenue increased by 3.4% year-on-year to 76.94 billion RMB, exceeding expectations [1] - The gross profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 10.3%, primarily due to clients' ongoing efforts to reduce costs in key capital investment projects' design and construction [1] - The target price for the stock has been raised to 5.15 HKD, and the earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted, with a reiteration of the "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - As of August 22, 2025, China Communication Services (00552.HK) closed at 4.83 HKD, down 0.62%, with a trading volume of 23.52 million shares and a turnover of 112 million HKD [1] - The stock has received strong buy recommendations from two investment banks in the past 90 days, with an average target price of 5.5 HKD [1] - The company ranks 5th in the telecommunications industry with a market capitalization of 11.622 billion HKD [1] Group 3 - Key performance indicators for China Communication Services compared to the telecommunications industry average are as follows: ROE at 7.87% (industry average -32.69%), revenue at 152.527 billion HKD (industry average 217.662 billion HKD), and net profit margin at 2.87% (industry average 4.24%) [2] - The company has a gross profit margin of 10.25% compared to the industry average of 43.26%, and a debt ratio of 65.53% against the industry average of 49.09% [2]
X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-08-19 03:03
Price Target Adjustment - UBS raised the gold price target for the end of March 2026 to $3,600 per ounce [1] - UBS increased the gold price target for the end of June 2026 to $3,700 per ounce [1] - UBS set a gold price target of $3,700 per ounce for the end of September 2026 [1]
小米股价大跌!一度跌超5%,创近两个月新低
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 07:22
Group 1: Stock Performance - Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) experienced a significant drop, with the stock price falling over 5% during trading on August 7, reaching a two-month low [1] - The stock closed down 4.35% at HKD 51.65 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Daiwa reported a slight downward revision in Xiaomi's smartphone shipment forecast for Q2 2025, primarily due to a 25% year-on-year decline in the Indian market [4] - Canalys data indicated a 1% year-on-year decline in global smartphone shipments for Q2 2025, marking the first drop in six consecutive quarters [4] - Despite a historical high global market share of 15% in Q2 2025, Xiaomi's gross margin decreased [4] Group 3: Financial Projections - Daiwa forecasts Xiaomi's total revenue for Q2 2025 to be RMB 112.6 billion, slightly below market expectations, with adjusted net profit at RMB 10.2 billion, in line with market expectations [4] - Due to the downward revision of smartphone gross margin forecasts, Daiwa lowered Xiaomi's earnings per share estimates for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 7%, and reduced the target price from HKD 78 to HKD 72 [5] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Business - Xiaomi's electric vehicle deliveries are expected to reach 82,000 units in Q2 2025, with an average selling price of RMB 242,000 and an improved gross margin of 25% [4] - The company’s electric vehicle business is narrowing losses, with the second phase of the factory expected to commence production by the end of September [4][6] - Guosen Securities anticipates Xiaomi's vehicle sales to reach 400,000 to 500,000 units in 2025, and potentially exceed 800,000 units in 2026 [6] Group 5: Analyst Ratings - Nomura raised Xiaomi's target price by 79% to HKD 61 based on SOTP valuation but downgraded the rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to limited upside potential [6] - Analysts expect Xiaomi to face challenges in the upcoming quarters, including lower-than-expected smartphone shipments and high market expectations for the electric vehicle business [6]
WEB Travel Group:WEB旅游集团(WEB.AX):2026财年合同投资带来中期约6.5%的收入利润率信心,买入-20250530
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-30 03:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WEB Travel Group (WEB.AX) with a 12-month target price of A$7.10, representing a potential upside of 35% from the current price of A$5.26 [1][3]. Core Insights - WEB's total transaction value (TTV) reached A$4.9 billion for FY25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22%. Revenue increased by 1% year-on-year, with EBITDA reported at A$121 million [1][2]. - Management provided guidance for FY26 EBITDA margin between 44% and 47%, down from a previous estimate of 48%, due to investments in hotel contracting teams in the Asia-Pacific and Americas regions. Despite this, confidence in a 6.5% revenue/TTV margin for the medium term remains [3][12]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the first eight weeks of FY26, with TTV and order volume growing by 28% and 29% respectively, driven by a 36% increase in the Americas [1][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY25, FY26, FY27, and FY28 are A$328.4 million, A$386.0 million, A$450.3 million, and A$507.2 million respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% expected [4][11]. - EBITDA estimates for the same periods are A$120.6 million, A$153.6 million, A$191.2 million, and A$217.5 million, indicating a growth trajectory [4][11]. - The report anticipates a diluted EPS of A$0.20 for FY25, increasing to A$0.44 by FY28, reflecting a strong growth outlook [4][11]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation approach remains unchanged, utilizing an EV/EBITDA multiple adjusted to FY27 EBITDA, with a revised multiple of 12x based on comparable companies [12][15]. - The target price of A$7.10 is derived from a combination of fundamental valuation (85%) and theoretical M&A valuation (15%) [15][12].