Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the US soybean futures market showed a significant upward trend, mainly driven by the biodiesel policy and improved export prospects due to macro - changes. However, the US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly depends on the Argentine weather and the US monthly supply - demand report [5][13]. - The downward pressure on the domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved subsequent supply and high previous crushing profits. The soybean meal inventory is expected to gradually decline, but the current price has already reflected the subsequent de - stocking, so the impact is relatively limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal also showed a downward trend this week, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal. As the subsequent soybean meal spot may gradually tighten, the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be relatively good. The supply of rapeseed meal has gradually improved recently [6][22]. - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, expanding the MRM spread for arbitrage, and selling a wide - straddle strategy for options [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - US soybean futures rose significantly this week, mainly influenced by the biodiesel policy and macro - changes. The fundamentals of the US soybean market remained stable, with a decrease in exports and stable crushing. The Brazilian price support still exists, and the Argentine new - crop supply decreased due to weather. The main influencing factor for the US soybean market may be the Argentine weather, and the export increment space is limited [5]. - The downward pressure on domestic soybean meal futures increased due to improved supply and high previous crushing profits. The subsequent soybean arrivals will gradually decrease, and the soybean meal inventory may decline. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may be relatively large. The domestic rapeseed meal also declined, with a larger decline than soybean meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is mainly affected by soybean meal, and the subsequent supply has improved [6]. Strategy - Single - side: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy (views are for reference only and not as a basis for trading) [7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. Macro Impact Increases, US Soybeans Rise Significantly - The US soybean futures rose significantly this week, driven by macro and biodiesel factors. The US Treasury's tax guidance on biodiesel and improved export prospects due to macro - changes led to the upward movement. The US soybean export sales data decreased, and the growth rate of demand slowed down. The subsequent market impact mainly comes from the limited short - term export growth and the upcoming US monthly supply - demand report [13]. 2. Brazilian Quotes Remain Firm, Argentine Weather Still Causes Disturbance - Brazilian quotes decreased this week but still remained at a high level. The old - crop pressure in Brazil is relatively limited, while the new - crop market pressure is obvious. The Brazilian export shipment speed has accelerated. The main influencing factor in the Argentine market is the weather, and the yield is subject to uncertainty [16]. 3. Futures Pressure Increases, Trading Remains Strong - The domestic soybean meal futures showed a downward trend this week due to the repair of crushing profits and reduced concerns about soybean supply shortages. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, especially the forward basis trading. The market is expected to see a slight de - stocking of soybean meal this week. The futures market is complex, and it is likely to show a more volatile trend [19]. 4. Supply Pressure Increases, Rapeseed Meal Declines Overall - The domestic rapeseed meal futures also declined this week, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread continued to widen. The decline was affected by both soybean meal and improved subsequent supply. The demand for rapeseed meal is average, and the supply has improved recently. The international rapeseed market provides some support to the price of rapeseed meal, but the overall supply is relatively loose [22] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Changes International Market - The data shows the US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit, as well as the Brazilian and Argentine monthly export and crushing data [26][29]. Foreign Premium - The data presents the FOB prices of the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina, as well as the CNF price of rapeseed [32]. Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - The data includes the US dollar exchange rates against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China [37][44]. Supply - The data shows the soybean and rapeseed import volumes and weekly crushing volumes [50]. Demand Side - The data presents the soybean meal and rapeseed meal pick - up volumes [53]. Inventory - The data shows the soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventories [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has fully reflected the positive factors, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited. However, there are also many uncertainties, and the downward space is expected to be limited if the overall market demand does not decline significantly [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows a volatile trend. The near - term contracts are relatively strong due to the loss of soybean crushing profit, the lack of competitiveness of US soybeans compared with Brazilian soybeans, and the tight supply in the long - term domestic market. The current domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with high inventory and general trading volume [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong trend, mainly affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed supply. However, the high inventory of granular rapeseed meal limits the price increase space [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the long - term contracts for unilateral trading, expand the MRM spread for arbitrage, and adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - The US soybean market shows a high - level volatile trend. The improvement of export prospects has been fully reflected in the price. Further upward movement requires more positive changes in supply. The South American market is under pressure. Brazilian soybean export volume is expected to increase, and the price increase space is limited. Argentina also faces price pressure due to large production [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market has a near - term strong and long - term weak pattern. The near - term strength is due to factors such as crushing profit loss and tight long - term supply. The domestic spot market has a loose supply - demand relationship and high inventory [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market is affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed import, but the high inventory of granular rapeseed meal restricts the price increase [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on the long - term contracts. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell wide straddles [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 US Soybeans: Export Prospects Improve, and the Market Remains at a High Level - The US soybean futures market continues to show a high - level volatile trend. The export prospects have improved, but the price increase space is limited without a significant decline in supply. The US soybean harvest progress is expected to be fast, and the single - yield estimate has been slightly adjusted. The soybean crushing profit has declined, and the export is still slow with high uncertainty [8]. 3.2.2 South America: Sowing Slows Down, and Prices Decline - The South American soybean price shows a downward trend. The Brazilian soybean price has declined, and the new - crop price is relatively firm due to the slow sowing progress. The Brazilian soybean sowing is affected by weather, the demand is general, the crushing profit is low, and the export volume is expected to remain high. The Argentine new - crop sowing has started, and the supply is expected to decrease with limited market impact [11]. 3.2.3 Trade Relations: Changes Increase, and Soybean Meal Fluctuates at a High Level - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows a high - level volatile trend. The oil mill operating rate is expected to decline, the inventory pressure is large, and the crushing profit is average. The demand is good due to high livestock and poultry inventory, but the further inventory accumulation space is limited. The reduction of tariffs on US soybeans does not make them competitive, and the long - term soybean import is expected to decrease [14]. 3.2.4 Market Supply: Loose, and Demand Remains at a Low Level - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong trend. The market is affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed import. The supply of rapeseed for crushing is low, the inventory is low, and the demand is general. The high inventory of granular rapeseed meal makes the market supply - demand relationship relatively loose, and the price increase space is limited [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes 3.3.1 International Market - The data includes US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit; Brazilian and Argentine soybean monthly export and crushing volume [20][23]. 3.3.2 Foreign Premium - It shows the FOB prices of US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina soybeans and the CNF price of rapeseed [25]. 3.3.3 Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - It involves the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates of Panamax vessels on different routes [32][38]. 3.3.4 Supply - The data includes soybean and rapeseed import volume and weekly crushing volume [40]. 3.3.5 Demand - It shows the weekly提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [42]. 3.3.6 Inventory - The data includes the inventory of soybeans, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal [45].