Core Viewpoint - Zheng cotton is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with a focus on macroeconomic factors and the upcoming U.S. cotton planting report [1] Market Overview - The latest price index for 328-grade cotton is 14,891 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] - The planting area for cotton is stable with an expected increase in new cotton production [1] - The cotton yarn market remains sluggish, with textile enterprises reducing prices to sell, and downstream orders showing no improvement [1] Production and Inventory - In May, cotton yarn production increased by 3% year-on-year to 1.951 million tons, while fabric production decreased by 3.3% to 2.67 billion meters [1] - Cumulative yarn production from January to May reached 9.368 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, while cumulative fabric production was 12.63 billion meters, a slight increase of 0.2% [1] - Chemical fiber production in May rose by 5.2% year-on-year to 7.349 million tons [1] International Market Dynamics - The U.S. cotton planting progress is at 85%, down from 89% year-on-year, with a good quality rate of 48%, compared to 54% last year [1] - The USDA's June supply and demand report adjusted U.S. cotton exports for the 2024/25 season to 2.5 million tons, with ending stocks reduced to 960,000 tons [1] - The CFTC fund's net positions are low, indicating strong support for ICE cotton prices [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, contributing to a significant drop in overnight ICE cotton prices [1] - Short-term fundamentals are limited, leading to narrow fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, with a need to monitor macroeconomic changes [1]

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The spot cotton price index has increased, but the downstream cotton yarn and cotton fabric markets are weak, and spinning mill profits have deteriorated. The开机 rate of local weaving factories in Xinjiang has increased after the festival, but the overall rate remains low. [7] - Affected by the Middle - East conflict, international agricultural products have risen. The signing and shipment of US cotton are in good progress, and the USDA report has adjusted relevant data favorably. In the domestic market, new cotton production is expected to increase steadily, and there is a risk of high - temperature damage to cotton. The downstream industry is weak, and short - term fundamentals have limited driving force. Zhengzhou cotton is in a narrow - range shock adjustment, and macro changes should be monitored. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis quotes for cotton sales in different regions vary. The cotton yarn market has slightly better but still weak transactions, with prices difficult to rise. The cotton fabric market is dull, and prices are stable and weak. [7] - **Analysis of Market Conditions**: Overseas, the increase in crude oil has driven up agricultural products. The signing and shipment of US cotton is good, and the USDA report has positive adjustments. In the domestic market, new cotton production is expected to increase, but there is a risk of high - temperature damage. The downstream industry is weak, and short - term fundamentals have limited driving force. [8] 2. Industry News - As of the week of June 8, the US cotton planting progress was 76%, the budding rate was 12%, and the good - quality rate was 49%. As of June 7, 2025, the Brazilian cotton harvest progress was 1.4%. [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange - rate data. [18][19][21][26]