以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 市场对AI终局有着纷繁复杂的推演，这里我们不讨论具体推演的是非。但我们可以推演的是，现阶段，AI终局的思考，很难覆盖全部的关键因 素。市场容易将科技产业趋势(AI最终能力)推演至终局，叠加现有的经济、社会和产业组织形式进行分析。而实际上，AI的进步势必是渐进的， 逐步出现的"局部颠覆"积累才会出现"全面颠覆"。而在这个过程中，生产力、生产关系、政治体制、产业组织形式、社会组织形式都会随之发生 变革。当AI弱化了人力需求，也意味着个人的能力圈，人类社会的能力边界发生深刻变化，随着AI能力接近终局，人类社会的边界最终将大幅拓 展。在现有社会组织形式下分析AI终局，可能是有偏的。微观上，受到冲击的行业和企业，也势必会有应对、调整和转型。 市场对2028年的担忧，即便从原理上正确(对此我们抱有怀疑)，时间上也不会如此紧迫，也并非无法调整应对。可能这种担忧出现本身，就是这 部分风险被排除的契机。 关于不容易被替代的战略资产，我们认为，时代资产的逻辑再强化：大国博弈背景下，战略资源自主可控本就是核心投资线索。AI时代战略资源 和能源 ...

国泰海通证券 3 月基金投资策略 [Table_Authors] 江涛(分析师) A 股延续上涨行情，重视主投周期和科技领域基金 本报告导读： 2026 年 2 月，A股虽在月初经历短期波动，但全月仍延续了前期的上涨行情。我们 建议后续基金配置在整体维持均衡风格的前提下，适度偏向成长，从大类资产配置 角度来看可以对黄金和美股相关 ETF 进行一定配置。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 基金投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 基金评价 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 | | 021-23185672 | | --- | --- | | | jiangtao4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040067 | | | 倪韵婷(分析师) | | | 021-23185605 | | | niyunting@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040097 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 国泰海通证券-基金业绩排行榜（2026-02-28） 2026.02.28 国泰海通证券 1 月基金表现回顾 2026.02.04 国泰海 ...

2月24日，新兴铸管涨5.36%，截至发稿，报5.11元/股，成交2.56亿元，换手率1.32%，总市值202.52亿 元。 资料显示，新兴铸管股份有限公司位于河北省武安市上洛阳村北(2672厂区)，成立日期1997年5月24 日，上市日期1997年6月6日，公司主营业务涉及离心球墨铸铁管及管件、铸造制品、钢铁冶炼及压延加 工、钢塑复合管、钢格板、特种钢管。主营业务收入构成为：铸管及管铸件31.61%，优特钢24.89%， 普钢23.42%，其他产品20.08%。 国泰中证钢铁ETF（515210）成立日期2020年1月22日，最新规模39.8亿。今年以来收益4.22%，同类排 名2684/5580；近一年收益30.64%，同类排名2032/4297；成立以来收益77.99%。 国泰中证钢铁ETF（515210）基金经理为吴中昊。 截至发稿，吴中昊累计任职时间4年29天，现任基金资产总规模240.55亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 110.52%， 任职期间最差基金回报-17.57%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人 ...

绝对收益产品及策略周报（260202-260206） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 上周 161 只固收+基金创新高 本报告导读： 股票端采用小盘价值组合+不择时的股债 10/90 和 20/80 月度再平衡策略，2026 年累 计收益分别为 1.36%和 2.53%。 投资要点： 金 融 工 程 周 报 固收+产品业绩跟踪。截至 2026 年 02 月 06 日，全市场固收+基金 规模 23568.03 亿元，产品数量 1166 只，其中 161 只上周净值创历 史新高。上周（20260202-20260206，下同）共新发 15 只产品，各 类型基金业绩中位数表现分化：混合债券型一级（0.07%）、二级（- 0.15%）、偏债混合型（-0.26%）、灵活配置型（-0.19%）、债券型 FOF （-0.29%）及混合型 FOF（-0.53%）。按风险等级划分，保守型、稳 健型、激进型基金中位数收益分别为 0.04%、-0.17%、-0.27%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大类资产配置和行业 ETF 轮动策略跟踪。1）大类资产择时观点。 2026Q1 逆周期配置模型给出的宏观环境预 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shengde Xintai has seen a stock price increase of 5.12%, reaching 46.40 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 175 million CNY and a turnover rate of 6.80%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 5.104 billion CNY [1] - Shengde Xintai New Materials Co., Ltd. is located in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, and was established on October 15, 2001, with its listing date on September 1, 2020. The company specializes in the production, research, and sales of seamless steel pipes for various industrial energy equipment [1] - The main business revenue composition of Shengde Xintai includes: alloy steel pipes 45.54%, stainless steel pipes 29.38%, automotive motor shafts 5.67%, components and others 5.55%, automotive motor housings 4.68%, steel grating 4.05%, waste income 3.49%, and carbon seamless steel pipes 1.64% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders of Shengde Xintai, Guotai Fund has one fund listed among them. The Guotai CSI Steel ETF (515210) entered the top ten circulating shareholders in the third quarter, holding 328,600 shares, which accounts for 0.57% of the circulating shares [2] - The Guotai CSI Steel ETF (515210) was established on January 22, 2020, with a latest scale of 3.98 billion CNY. Year-to-date return is 5.09%, ranking 2619 out of 5569 in its category; the one-year return is 33.08%, ranking 1960 out of 4295; and since inception, the return is 79.48% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Guotai CSI Steel ETF (515210) is Wu Zhonghao, who has a cumulative tenure of 4 years and 15 days. The current total asset scale of the fund is 24.055 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 110.7% and the worst being -15.34% [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or products discussed [1]. Core Insights - The total scale of the fixed income + funds market reached 23,558.32 billion, with 1,164 products, and 108 of these reached historical net value highs last week [2][20]. - The performance of various fund types showed divergence, with median returns for mixed bond funds (primary and secondary) at -0.08%, and flexible allocation funds at -0.03%, while bond FOFs and mixed FOFs had median returns of 0.26% and 0.35% respectively [2][13]. - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 indicates a slowdown, with the CSI 300 index and other indices showing returns of 1.65% and 0.39% respectively as of January 31, 2026 [3][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Fixed Income + Product Performance Tracking - As of January 30, 2026, the total number of fixed income + funds was 1,164, with a total scale of 23,558.32 billion [10]. - Last week, 6 new products were launched, and the median performance of various fund types was as follows: mixed bond type primary (-0.08%), secondary (-0.08%), and flexible allocation (-0.03%) [13][14]. - The conservative, stable, and aggressive fund median returns were 0.01%, -0.12%, and -0.12% respectively [13]. 2. Major Asset Allocation and Industry ETF Rotation Strategy Tracking - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 is a slowdown, with the CSI 300 index yielding 1.65% and the total wealth index of government bonds yielding 0.39% [3][23]. - The recommended industry ETFs for January 2026 include coal, steel, securities companies, and banking ETFs, with a combined return of 0.88% last week [3]. 3. Absolute Return Strategy Performance Tracking - The stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded 0.05% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy yielded 0.04% [4]. - The small-cap value strategy showed the highest performance with a year-to-date return of 2.60%, while the combined strategy with macro momentum yielded a cumulative return of 3.82% [4].

Group 1 - Guizhou Steel Rope Co., Ltd. experienced a 5% increase in stock price, reaching 14.70 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 132 million yuan and a turnover rate of 3.71%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 3.603 billion yuan [1] - The company, established on October 19, 2000, and listed on May 14, 2004, specializes in the research, production, processing, sales, and import-export of steel wire, various types of steel rope products, prestressed steel strands, and related equipment and materials [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes steel ropes (48.27%), steel strands (26.87%), steel wires (22.88%), other (1.39%), entrusted processing materials (0.31%), and rigging (0.29%) [1] Group 2 - Guotai Fund's Guotai Zhongzheng Steel ETF (515210) entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Guizhou Steel Rope, holding 2.0017 million shares, which is 0.82% of the circulating shares, with an estimated floating profit of approximately 1.4012 million yuan [2] - The Guotai Zhongzheng Steel ETF was established on January 22, 2020, with a latest scale of 3.98 billion yuan, yielding 3.54% this year, ranking 2976 out of 5562 in its category, and 34.57% over the past year, ranking 2058 out of 4285 [2] - Since its inception, the fund has achieved a return of 76.82% [2]

- The report introduces a **macro timing model** for asset allocation, which predicts macroeconomic environments using proxy variables and selects optimal asset classes for absolute return portfolios. For Q1 2026, the model forecasts a "Slowdown" environment, with returns of 1.65% for CSI 300, 9.13% for CNI 2000, 8.61% for Nanhua Commodity Index, and 0.39% for ChinaBond Total Treasury Wealth Index[23][30] - A **macro momentum model** is constructed for monthly timing signals, considering factors such as economic growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and risk sentiment. This model is used for timing equities, bonds, and other major asset classes. Additionally, a multi-cycle gold timing strategy is built using macro, position, volume-price, and sentiment factors. For January 2026, the returns are 1.65% for CSI 300, 0.39% for ChinaBond Total Treasury Wealth Index, and 19.59% for AU9999 contract[23][30] - The **industry ETF rotation strategy** is based on a multi-factor model that incorporates historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, volume-price technicals, and macroeconomic factors. The strategy matches ETFs with their corresponding industry indices and selects ETFs from a benchmark pool of 23 first-level industries. For January 2026, the recommended ETFs include Guotai CSI Coal ETF, Guotai CSI Steel ETF, Guotai CSI All Securities ETF, and Huabao CSI Bank ETF, each with an initial weight of 25%[24][27][28] - The **20/80 stock-bond rebalancing strategy** driven by macro timing achieved a weekly return of 0.05% and a YTD return of 0.56%. The **stock-bond risk parity strategy** achieved a weekly return of 0.04% and a YTD return of 0.47%. When combined with the industry ETF rotation strategy, the enhanced 20/80 rebalancing strategy achieved a weekly return of 0.29% and a YTD return of 0.89%, while the enhanced risk parity strategy achieved a weekly return of 0.13% and a YTD return of 0.55%[4][30][33] - The **stock-bond-gold risk parity strategy** achieved a weekly return of 0.26% and a YTD return of 1.28%, with an annualized volatility of 2.96%, a maximum drawdown of 0.49%, and a Sharpe ratio of 6.90[4][30][35] - The **quantitative fixed-income plus strategy** includes stock-bond rebalancing models with different configurations. For the 10/90 monthly rebalancing strategy, the small-cap value style achieved a YTD return of 1.38%, while the small-cap growth style achieved 1.02%. For the 20/80 monthly rebalancing strategy, the small-cap value style achieved a YTD return of 2.60%, while the small-cap growth style achieved 1.88%. When combined with macro timing, the 20/80 monthly rebalancing strategy achieved a YTD return of 3.82% for the small-cap value style and 2.73% for the small-cap growth style. The 20/80 quarterly rebalancing strategy based on counter-cyclical allocation achieved a YTD return of 1.38% for the PB earnings + small-cap value combination and 1.02% for the PB earnings + small-cap growth combination[4][37][40]

国泰中证钢铁ETF（515210）基金经理为吴中昊。 截至发稿，吴中昊累计任职时间4年4天，现任基金资产总规模240.55亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 126.21%， 任职期间最差基金回报-16.7%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 1月30日，山东钢铁跌5.29%，截至发稿，报1.61元/股，成交2.34亿元，换手率1.32%，总市值172.25亿 元。 资料显示，山东钢铁股份有限公司位于山东省济南市钢城区府前大街99号，成立日期2000年12月29日， 上市日期2004年6月29日，公司主营业务涉及生产、销售钢材、钢坯等钢铁产品。主营业务收入构成 为：卷材21.58%，板材20.74%，型材12.93%，焦化、动力11.61%，钢筋9.17%，材料8.86%，棒材 8.06%，钢坯、生铁3.86%，其他1.70%，铁矿石1.45%，租赁0.05%。 从山东钢铁十大流通股东角度 数据显示，国泰 ...

Group 1 - Zhongnan Steel shares fell by 5.13% on January 30, closing at 2.59 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.04 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.61%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 6.278 billion CNY [1] - The company, Guangdong Zhongnan Steel Co., Ltd., was established on April 29, 1997, and listed on May 8, 1997. Its main business involves the production and sales of steel products, with revenue composition as follows: rebar 36.51%, plates 19.99%, steel billets 14.81%, wire rods 14.25%, base management and brand operation 7.46%, and coking products and others 6.98% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major circulating shareholders, Guotai Fund's ETF, Guotai Zhongzheng Steel ETF (515210), increased its holdings by 7.7352 million shares in the third quarter, holding a total of 12.229 million shares, which accounts for 0.5% of circulating shares. The estimated floating loss today is approximately 1.7121 million CNY [2] - Guotai Zhongzheng Steel ETF (515210) was established on January 22, 2020, with a current scale of 3.98 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 8.93%, ranking 1831 out of 5557 in its category; the one-year return is 41.58%, ranking 1852 out of 4285; and since inception, the return is 86.03% [2]