今年父亲节临近时，一名美国TikTok博主发布视频，推荐来自中国义乌的太阳能风扇帽作为父亲节礼 物，在平台上收获900多万播放量，引发购买热潮。这个小小的案例，折射出中美贸易合作对民众福祉 的巨大增进作用。中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢，而非你输我赢。经过40多年的发展，两国经济高度 互补，利益深度交融，双边贸易额约占世界1/5，产业链供应链早已形成"你中有我、我中有你"的格 局。在第八届进博会上，美国企业参展面积连续7年位居第一，美国商界用行动为中国市场投下信任 票。要人为砍断这种互利合作关系，既做不到，也不可取，只会导致双输。 "修昔底德陷阱"不是历史的宿命。中美共同走出一条前无古人的大国相处新路，是这个时代面临的最重 大命题之一。破题的关键，就是要树立正确战略认知，摒弃零和博弈的旧思维。中国不挑战、不取代美 国，乐见美国繁荣发展。事实上，中国的发展进步是美国的机遇，中美合作有利于美国更好应对自身面 临的挑战。包括美国政策制定者在内的各界人士都承认，对华贸易有助于美国缓解通胀压力，有利于改 善人民生活。过去一段时间，在两国元首共识引领下，双方经贸团队举行了5轮磋商，解决彼此关切问 题的思路逐步明晰。这充分表 ...

2025年，从太平洋东岸涌起的一场关税海啸，给包括美国人民在内的各国人民福祉都造成严重损害。这 再次证明，在各国利益深度交融的今天，零和博弈寸步难行，互利共赢才是人间正道。 美方一些人执迷于零和博弈，这是中美经贸关系波折不断的重要原因。从无视国际经贸规则滥施关税、 单方面挑起经贸摩擦，到泛化国家安全概念，在科技领域出台严苛管制措施，种种扰乱正常经贸合作的 做法，背后都是"你输我赢""你兴我衰"的陈旧逻辑在作祟。 在这个地球村时代，吹灭别人的灯，并不会让自己更加光明；阻挡别人的路，也不会让自己行得更远。 打着所谓"对等""公平"的旗号搞零和博弈，最终结果是损人不利己。美方滥施关税不仅没能解决其货物 贸易逆差和产业竞争力问题，反而让美国企业和消费者都付出了沉重代价。从美国港口因关税政策摇摆 出现物流拥堵，到美国科技企业因失去中国市场而蒙受巨额损失，现实的教训比比皆是。身处经贸第一 线的美国工商界一再呼吁取消加征关税，维护产业链供应链稳定。 今年父亲节临近时，一名美国TikTok博主发布视频，推荐来自中国义乌的太阳能风扇帽作为父亲节礼 物，在平台上收获900多万播放量，引发购买热潮。这个小小的案例，折射出中美贸易合 ...

统计显示，2024年荷兰圣诞商品出口99%是转口贸易和过境贸易，这些商品中81%是中国制造。荷兰从 中国进口的圣诞商品额为1.96亿欧元，约占其进口圣诞商品总额的82%。 荷兰圣诞商品出口额的增长主要来自对德国市场出口。2024年下半年，对德国的圣诞装饰品出口额比上 年同期增长了2320万欧元。对法国、比利时和意大利的圣诞商品出口额也高于2023年。与此同时，除 2023年外，对波兰的出口额自2015年以来逐年增长。 新华财经海牙12月22日电（记者邵海军）荷兰国家统计局22日发布的数据显示，2024年荷兰圣诞商品出 口额2.68亿欧元，进口额2.4亿欧元，是欧盟最大的圣诞商品贸易国。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - Poland's unilateral closure of key border crossings with Belarus has led to a significant disruption of the China-Europe Railway Express, raising concerns about a potential supply chain crisis during the European Christmas season [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Trade and Supply Chain - The closure has resulted in over 300 trains being stranded, with tens of thousands of containers backed up, severely affecting the trade network between 25 European countries and 120 Chinese cities [5]. - 90% of the trains passing through Poland are now halted, with alternative transport routes seeing costs surge by three times, creating a nightmare for European businesses during the peak Christmas stocking season [7]. - Several German automotive manufacturers have been forced to halt production due to a lack of Chinese components, incurring daily losses exceeding 2 million euros [7]. - The retail sector is warning of potential inventory shortages for Christmas goods, which may lead to price hikes after the holiday season [8]. - Time-sensitive goods such as medical devices and electronics are facing risks of delivery defaults due to the supply chain disruptions [8]. Group 2: Political and Strategic Implications - Analysts suggest that Poland's actions may be driven by dual motives: to leverage China's influence to pressure Russia and to align with Western narratives as a NATO front against Russia [10]. - However, this gamble could backfire, as China is accelerating alternative routes such as the Arctic passage and the Trans-Caspian route, indicating that Poland's role as a transit hub is not irreplaceable [10]. - As European countries begin to feel the economic impact of Poland's decision, Poland may find itself isolated and viewed as a troublemaker, highlighting the risks of politicizing economic cooperation [10].

Core Insights - Poland's government imposed a sudden ban on all land border crossings with Belarus citing national security, which has led to significant disruptions in the Eurasian logistics network [2] - The closure of the border has resulted in a paralysis of the Central European freight routes, particularly affecting the Malaszewicze transshipment station, which handles approximately 90% of freight volume for the Central European Railway [2][4] - The crisis has triggered a chain reaction affecting various industries, with logistics costs rising over 15%, production halts in major companies, and significant unemployment risks for local logistics workers [4][6] Logistics and Supply Chain Impact - Over 300 freight trains have been stranded, leading to a backlog of 30,000 containers, impacting the supply of Christmas goods and essential electronic components [2][4] - Major companies like Volkswagen have halted production due to chip shortages, incurring daily losses of €2 million [4] - The crisis has prompted companies to diversify their supply chains, with some increasing local procurement rates and investing in alternative manufacturing locations [9][11] Geopolitical and Trade Dynamics - The Polish government's decision is viewed as a political maneuver against China's stance on the Ukraine issue, despite the significant trade relationship between Poland and China, which reached €28.7 billion in 2024 [6][8] - China is actively working to secure the Central European Railway as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, while also developing alternative logistics routes through Central Asia and the South [8] - The crisis has highlighted divisions within the EU, with neighboring countries urging Poland to reopen its borders to avoid further supply chain disruptions [8] Future Outlook - The ongoing situation may lead to a permanent loss of Poland's status as a logistics hub for Central Europe, as companies adapt to new supply chain routes and logistics networks [13] - The construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is expected to shorten freight distances and increase annual capacity significantly [8][13] - The crisis could serve as a pivotal moment for global supply chain diversification, reshaping trade routes and logistics networks across Eurasia [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the education sector and highlights potential opportunities in the new consumption market [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of high school education reform and recommends specific companies such as Tianli International Holdings and Xueda Education, while also suggesting attention to Kevin Education [5]. - It identifies key trends in AI and consumption, recommending companies like Connet Optical, Small Commodity City, and Core International [5]. - The report notes a strong performance in the retail sector during the 618 sales event, with significant growth in categories like apparel and beauty products [5]. - The report highlights the increasing trend of family-oriented travel during the Dragon Boat Festival, with nearly 90% of the top 50 scenic spots being family-friendly [5][6]. Industry Updates - The social service industry saw a 2.5% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow during the Dragon Boat Festival, with a total of 65.37 million people traveling [5]. - E-commerce platforms like Alibaba and JD.com reported over 30% growth in apparel and beauty categories during the 618 sales event [5]. - The report mentions the opening of the 100th store under the "Fat Donglai" model by Yonghui Supermarket, indicating a significant expansion in the retail sector [5]. Company Announcements - Three Gorges Tourism Group appointed a new general manager on June 3, 2025 [5]. - Guangzhou Restaurant announced a share buyback of 500,000 shares, representing 0.088% of its total share capital [5]. - China Youth Travel Service transferred 17.37% of its shares to its parent company, Everbright Group, without compensation [5].