地产美元债

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鲍威尔暗示美联储可能降息,专家:既是久违的“顺风”,也可能潜藏“暗流”丨川观智库·金融研究院
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 04:17
来源:川观新闻 川观新闻记者 卢薇 国际经济金融形势风云变幻。据央视新闻报道,当地时间8月22日,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全 球央行年会上表示,当前形势暗示就业增长面临下行风险,风险平衡点的变化可能要求调整政策。鲍威 尔称,美联储对降息持开放态度。 随后,交易员加大对美联储9月降息的押注,再次完全定价美联储将在年底前降息两次。据CME"美联 储观察",美联储9月降息25个基点的概率飙升至91.1%,维持利率不变的概率为8.9%。 美联储"对降息持开放态度" 既是久违的"顺风",也可能潜藏"暗流" 西南财经大学教授、博士生导师蔡栋梁分析认为:"我认为对中国而言,美联储主席鲍威尔的言论既是 久违的'顺风',也可能是新的'暗流'。利弊交织,得失相伴,我国经济需要在平衡木上谨慎行走。" 鲍威尔在讲话中指出美国经济在高关税与收紧移民政策背景下仍展现韧性,但劳动力市场与经济增长已 出现显著放缓。他表示,尽管通胀仍受关注,但就业市场风险上升可能使美联储在9月降息。 在政策立场上,鲍威尔称,美联储利率水平已较去年更接近"中性",未来将谨慎评估风险,确保不会让 一次性物价上涨演变成长期通胀问题。他重申,美联储将始终在实现最 ...
2025 年三大类资产配置新趋势
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 09:13
Group 1: Stock Market Insights - The technology sector in the Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, surpassing 800 billion HKD in August, indicating a complex capital market environment [1] - Emerging technology companies are becoming the backbone of the stock market, with a quantum computing firm experiencing a 127% increase in share price and a market cap exceeding 200 billion HKD due to breakthroughs in room-temperature superconducting chips [1] - Traditional real estate stocks are under pressure due to new REITs regulations, while space resource development stocks are experiencing soaring valuations, highlighting a clear market divergence [1] Group 2: Bond Market Developments - Following the Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate hikes, the bond market is entering a favorable allocation period, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing between 3.2% and 3.5% [2] - Chinese offshore bond indices have shown a year-to-date return of 5.8%, outperforming similar products, while green infrastructure bonds are offering a yield premium of 120 basis points over government bonds [2] - High-yield bonds present hidden opportunities, with a Southeast Asian data center project bond yielding 8.9% and a hydrogen industry park bond receiving an upgraded outlook from international rating agencies [2] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Global central banks are increasing their gold holdings, with gold prices maintaining high levels above 2500 USD per ounce, and physical gold ETF holdings reaching record highs [3] - The derivatives market is experiencing increased volatility in gold prices, while new gold mines are being discovered in West Africa, and nano-gold plating technology has achieved production breakthroughs [3] - Digital gold assets are evolving, with a gold-backed stablecoin achieving a weekly trading volume exceeding 1 billion USD and a gold NFT product completing its first round of financing [3]
时报观察丨地产美元债压力稍解 香港中资银行业绩加速好转
证券时报· 2025-03-28 00:44
Group 1 - The performance pressure from real estate US dollar bonds on Hong Kong's Chinese banks is gradually easing, with reduced impairment provisions reported by several financial institutions [1] - The issuance scale of offshore bonds in Asia has increased, and investor risk appetite has improved, leading to a better differentiation between investment-grade and high-yield sectors [1] - The losses suffered by Hong Kong Chinese banks due to defaults on mainland real estate US dollar bonds have been significant, with some banks having over 50% of their loan portfolios tied to real estate [1] Group 2 - The recovery of Hong Kong's capital markets has brought growth opportunities for Chinese banks, particularly in brokerage and investment banking services, with notable increases in commission and fee income [2] - For example, the commission and fee income of交银国际 increased by 25.75% to HKD 1.79 billion, with corporate financing and underwriting services seeing a significant growth of 104.2% [2] - The net profit of all securities dealers and margin financiers in Hong Kong reached HKD 44.4 billion, a 56% year-on-year increase, indicating a robust recovery in the market [2]