编者按 辞蛇岁，迎马年。在2026年新春佳节之际，期货日报邀请各大机构相关专家，盘点当前大类资产市场态 势，掘金新一年核心配置机会与优质投资赛道。 丙午马年，资本市场是否会迎来奔腾之势？面对利率下行、存款"搬家"的宏观背景，以及A股震荡、商 品波动的复杂局面，投资者如何布局？"策马点金"栏目邀请友山基金首席投资官金焰、上海旭诺资产管 理有限公司投资经理户涛、上海大墉资产管理有限公司创始人兼基金经理鲍瑞海，从宏观配置、衍生工 具、实物资产等不同维度，为投资者奉上马年财富管理的专业参考。 周期股与商品期货的"双重表达" 在利率持续走低的背景下，居民存款向资本市场转移已成为确定性趋势。 鲍瑞海的配置思路是"同一逻辑，双重表达"，如铜价上涨，既利好有色板块上市公司的利润，也能直接 通过铜期货获利。"根据相关性，投资者可以同时管理一个板块的风险，从而实现合理配置。"他说。 低相关性构建"免费午餐" 诺贝尔经济学奖得主哈里·马科维茨曾将分散化称为投资中唯一的"免费午餐"。本期三位私募受访者的 观点，都离不开这一理念。 鲍瑞海从实战角度提出了三层应对框架：成长赛道方面，沿着"企业爬科技树"方向，挖掘尚未充分演绎 的机会，用 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by China has raised concerns in the global financial community, highlighting a shift in asset allocation strategies and risk assessments among countries [1][2]. Group 1: China's Asset Allocation Changes - As of February, China's U.S. Treasury holdings decreased to $682.6 billion, which is a reduction of nearly 50% from its peak [2]. - China is reallocating funds towards gold, European bonds, and ASEAN assets, indicating a strategic and gradual adjustment rather than an abrupt stop [3]. - The increase in gold reserves reflects China's long-term planning and risk management, as gold serves as a hedge against credit and default risks [9]. Group 2: Global Trends in Asset Allocation - Other countries, including BRICS nations like India and Brazil, are also reducing their U.S. Treasury holdings, showcasing a collective shift in investment strategies [7]. - The global market is exhibiting a trend towards diversified asset allocation, moving away from a sole focus on the U.S. dollar to include gold, euros, and renminbi [7][15]. - The trend of reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar in trade and settlement is gaining momentum, with more countries opting for local currency transactions [21][22]. Group 3: U.S. Debt and Market Confidence - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, significantly exceeding the country's economic output, leading to increased fiscal pressure and volatility in Treasury yields [5]. - Despite U.S. Treasury Secretary's claims of strong overseas demand for U.S. debt, the adjustments by China and other nations signal a need for the U.S. to provide more convincing data and policies to maintain market confidence [19][28]. - The decline in the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries and the challenge to the dollar's dominance are indicative of a broader transformation in global asset allocation [26][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dynamics of the Chinese film industry during the Spring Festival, highlighting the capital investments behind major films and the strategic decisions made by production companies in a competitive landscape [4][5][6]. Group 1: Overview of the Spring Festival Box Office - The Spring Festival box office reached a historical high of 95.14 billion in 2025, largely due to the success of "Ne Zha," which contributed 48.41 billion, representing over 50% of the total box office [5]. - This year, the absence of a blockbuster like "Ne Zha" leads to a more balanced distribution of film types, with various genres represented, indicating a shift towards a "multi-strong competition" model [5][6]. - The Spring Festival holiday this year is the longest on record at 9 days, which is expected to provide a larger window for box office revenue, although estimates suggest a cautious 75 billion for the first 7 days, a 21% decline year-on-year [5]. Group 2: Capital Investment Landscape - A significant number of production companies are involved in this year's films, with some films having up to 39 co-producers, reflecting a strategy of risk diversification [8][11]. - Companies like China Film have invested in 5 films, showcasing a "broad net" strategy, while others like Huayi Brothers have chosen to invest in fewer films, indicating varying risk appetites [9]. - The rationale for multiple production companies includes risk distribution, resource exchange, profit alignment, and financial storytelling, which collectively enhance the viability of film projects [11][12][13][14]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Trends - The A-share film sector typically experiences "pre-emptive speculation" before the Spring Festival, with stock prices of companies like Huayi Brothers and Bona Film rising significantly in anticipation of box office success [16]. - Historical data shows that the Spring Festival box office has grown over 5.5 times from 14.51 billion in 2014 to 95.14 billion in 2025, with the festival becoming a critical period for the Chinese film market [18]. - The article concludes that while audiences choose films based on stories and actors, capital investors focus on probabilities and returns, highlighting the divergence between artistic and financial success [19][20].

美国纽约曼哈顿，这座繁华都市的心脏地带，隐藏着一座令人难以置信的金库。这里不仅是全球最大的黄金储存地，更是一个国际金融的缩 影，汇集了超过六十个国家高达八千三百余吨的黄金储备，其总价值更是突破了令人咋舌的两千亿美元大关。在这巨量的黄金中，中国赫然 占据了约六百吨的份额，占该地黄金总量的百分之八。然而，近年来，美国一系列资产冻结的举动，无疑侵蚀了其在全球金融舞台上的公信 力。此举令一些国家心生警惕，纷纷向美国递交申请，意图将自己存放在彼邦的黄金运送回国。 首先，中美之间长期存在的巨额贸易顺差，使得中国积累了海量的美元资产。然而，美元汇率的起伏不定，如同水中月，镜中花，始终难以 令人完全安心。为了分散风险，避免"将所有鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里"的顾虑，中国便将一部分外汇储备转化为黄金，并选择存放在美国，这 是一种审慎的资产配置策略。 其次，这六百吨黄金，正是从美国黄金交易市场购得。若要将其运回国内，不仅耗费巨大的运输成本，更要承担漫长运输过程中潜在的风 险。而一旦将来有需要，再将黄金运往国外进行交易，同样免不了额外的支出和隐患。因此，将黄金留在美国，可以有效规避往返运输的成 本与风险。 最后，美国拥有全球最为庞大且活 ...

Funding Trends - AkademikerPension announced the complete liquidation of its U.S. Treasury holdings, approximately $100 million, by the end of January 2026, due to concerns over U.S. policy credit risk and fiscal sustainability [2] - Other Danish funds, including ATP and PFA, have also reduced their exposure to U.S. Treasuries, shifting towards safer assets like euros, Swiss francs, and gold. In 2025, Danish institutions net sold about $1.5 billion in U.S. Treasuries, bringing their holdings to the lowest level since 2020 [2] Industry Policy and Environment - Data from early February 2026 indicates that European equity funds attracted approximately $14 billion in net inflows, as investors seek to reduce reliance on U.S. tech stocks and diversify risk towards European and Asian markets [3] - The reduction in holdings by Danish funds is partly attributed to U.S. tariff threats against Greenland, prompting Nordic investors to reassess risks associated with U.S. stocks and dollar assets, which may influence their allocation towards local European stocks, particularly in the financial and industrial sectors [3] Company Status - Although not directly involving Danish trust funds, the global trust industry has been increasingly divesting non-core financial equity, such as Huachen Trust's transfer of fund company equity, to focus on core business operations. This trend may indirectly affect the collaboration and equity structure of multinational asset management institutions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance capital investment in gold has been cautiously restrained despite the significant price increase in gold over the past year, with only 6 out of 10 approved institutions becoming members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and engaging in limited trading activities [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Behavior of Insurance Capital - Six out of ten approved insurance capital institutions have become members of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, with several completing their first gold transactions [1]. - Four institutions have not yet joined the Shanghai Gold Exchange, indicating a lack of readiness in establishing a comprehensive investment research and talent system for gold [1]. - The cumulative increase in COMEX gold prices has exceeded 60% over the past year, highlighting a missed opportunity for insurance capital institutions to capitalize on this market trend [1]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Perspective - Insurance capital institutions adhere to a long-term investment philosophy, necessitating a more extended decision-making horizon for gold investments [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding the continuation of gold price increases poses a risk for long-term investors, as significant price fluctuations can adversely affect profit statements [2]. - Unlike bonds and dividend stocks, gold's investment returns are primarily derived from price volatility, which is influenced by geopolitical and market supply-demand factors, adding to the uncertainty [2]. Group 3: Rational Investment Strategy - The cautious approach of insurance capital institutions reflects a balance between risk and return, demonstrating a rational investment strategy amidst market enthusiasm [2][3]. - Maintaining investment discipline and adhering to established investment rules is deemed more critical than chasing market trends during periods of heightened excitement [2][3]. - The recent significant drop in gold prices serves as a reminder that gold is also a risk asset, which should not be overlooked by investors [2].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of Hong Kong strategy and style indices as refined tools for asset allocation, risk management, and style expression amid a backdrop of deepening capital market openness and rising demand for diversified investment tools [2] - It highlights the clear positioning of various indices, such as the defensive strategy represented by the CSI Hong Kong 300 Stable Index, which focuses on fundamentally sound leading companies, showcasing excellent drawdown control and risk-adjusted returns [2][28] - The report suggests that the evolution of strategy and style indices from supplementary tools to core components is driven by market volatility and the need for precise asset allocation [2] Index Overview - The CSI Hong Kong 300 series defensive strategy indices include the Low Volatility, Low Beta, and Stable indices, which are constructed based on specific selection methods focusing on volatility and beta values [8] - The CSI Hong Kong 300 series offensive strategy indices, including the High Beta and Dynamic indices, are designed to capture trends in small and mid-cap stocks, providing an efficient vehicle for market elasticity and sector rotation [10] - The CSI Hong Kong 200 Momentum Index is tailored to select stocks with the highest risk-adjusted momentum indicators, reflecting its focus on capturing strong trends [12] Historical Performance - Since early 2020, the cumulative return of the CSI Hong Kong 300 Defensive Strategy Index lagged behind the Hang Seng Technology and CSI Hong Kong 300 indices during the risk-on phase from 2020 to mid-2021, demonstrating the defensive strategy's characteristic of sacrificing return elasticity for risk reduction [28] - In the subsequent market downturn starting mid-2021, the defensive indices showed relative advantages with significantly lower drawdowns compared to the Hang Seng Technology and CSI Hong Kong 300 indices, indicating effective risk management in bearish conditions [28] - The report notes that in the weak market of 2022-2023, the defensive indices maintained stronger stability, with the Stable Index exhibiting the smoothest performance, while the offensive indices struggled to recover [28] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that balanced strategies focusing on quality and risk control, such as equal risk contribution indices, may serve as stabilizers for medium to long-term allocations, while investors looking to capture short-term opportunities should consider momentum and high beta tools [2] - It emphasizes the need for investors to align their strategy and style index allocations with their risk preferences and market conditions, advocating for dynamic adjustments and portfolio optimization [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing importance of Hong Kong strategy and style indices as refined tools for asset allocation, risk management, and style expression amid a backdrop of deepening capital market openness and rising demand for diversified investment tools [2] - Different indices serve distinct purposes: the defensive strategy represented by the CSI Hong Kong 300 Stable Index focuses on fundamentally strong leading companies, showcasing excellent drawdown control and risk-adjusted returns, while the offensive tools like the CSI Hong Kong 200 Momentum Index excel in capturing trends in small and mid-cap stocks [2][2] - The evolution of strategy and style indices from supplementary tools to core components is driven by the need for risk separation and enhanced returns in a market characterized by structural trends and accelerated sector rotation [2] Group 2 - The report outlines the historical performance of various indices, indicating that during the risk-on phase from early 2020 to mid-2021, the defensive strategy indices lagged behind growth indices, reflecting their characteristic of sacrificing return elasticity for risk reduction [28] - In the subsequent market downturn starting mid-2021, the relative advantages of defensive indices became apparent, as they exhibited significantly lower drawdowns compared to growth indices, thus providing effective downside protection [28] - The report notes that in the weak market environment of 2022-2023, defensive indices maintained stronger stability, with their cumulative return curves showing significantly less volatility than growth indices, indicating their effectiveness in achieving relative returns during turbulent periods [28] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of offensive indices, stating that the CSI Hong Kong 300 Dynamic Index outperformed others during the strong risk appetite phase from early 2020 to mid-2021, benefiting from the growth and offensive style-driven bull market [31] - However, as the market transitioned to a downtrend, both the CSI Hong Kong 300 Dynamic and High Beta indices experienced significant drawdowns, with the Dynamic Index showing better resilience due to its composition and risk control mechanisms [31] - The report concludes that the CSI Hong Kong 300 Dynamic Index possesses both elasticity and recovery capability, while the High Beta Index is more sensitive to market fluctuations, leading to greater pressure during downturns [31] Group 4 - The report highlights the performance of the CSI Hong Kong 200 Momentum Index, which excelled during the bullish phase from early 2020 to mid-2021, capturing strong trends and significantly outperforming the Hong Kong 200 parent index [35] - In contrast, during the subsequent market downturn, the Momentum Index faced substantial drawdowns, reflecting the inherent risks of momentum strategies in reversing trends [35] - The report indicates that while the Momentum Index has the potential for excess returns in clear bull markets, it also carries higher drawdown risks in bearish and volatile market conditions [35] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the performance of the CSI Hong Kong 100 Momentum Index, which showed significant outperformance during the bullish phase from early 2020 to mid-2021, capturing strong trends effectively [38] - However, as the market entered a downtrend, the Momentum Index experienced considerable drawdowns, indicating its sensitivity to market reversals [38] - The report concludes that the Momentum strategy's excess returns are primarily concentrated in bull markets, while the equal-weighted and risk-contribution indices serve more as risk diversification tools without consistently outperforming the parent index [38]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent volatility in precious metals like gold and silver is expected to continue for one to two months as the market digests the previous rapid price increases, but the overall trend remains bullish for both industrial and precious metals [3] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes that the world is on the brink of a "capital war," where gold remains a crucial hedge against the current tensions [3][6] - Analysts maintain that the fundamental logic supporting precious metals, particularly gold as a global reserve asset, remains intact despite recent market corrections [4] Group 2 - Dalio describes the "capital war" as the weaponization of capital through trade embargoes and restrictions on market access, raising concerns among European investors holding U.S. dollar assets about potential sanctions [6] - The focus should not be on short-term fluctuations in gold prices but rather on the long-term allocation of gold in investment portfolios as an effective risk diversification tool [6] - The market is also paying attention to industrial metals like copper, tin, and aluminum, with a long-term bullish outlook but cautioning against short-term overheating [8]

把历史往回翻，金价的大趋势从来不是凭空起舞，它受地缘、央行、通胀和美元信用这四根绳子牵扯，想看懂就别只盯着今天的数字，而要看这四 件事是不是变了，答案是——短期有波动，但根基没塌。 有人把黄金当成绝对保险，这话危险得很，历史上黄金也有长期熊市，任何资产都没有包赚不赔这一说，别把鸡蛋全往一个篮子里丢；再说一遍， 风险分散比孤注一掷更能让人睡得着。 我的判断很简单——短期观望，长期分批配置，别让情绪决定你的钱包，用理性和计划把波动当成机会，而不是噩梦。 总体来看，这次回调更像是调整而不是翻盘，情绪在放大事实，基本面并未改变，市场会继续震荡，这是常态，不是异常；与其纠结"现在买还是 不买"，不如先搞清楚自己的目的和可承受的风险。 这次路过的人多半会继续走远，留下来的人会慢慢明白，投资不是看心情，而是看逻辑。 说到央行，他们近年持续买金，尤其是那些国家储备更新的动作很明显，这不是投机，是国家层面的组合拳，它会慢慢把市场上的金减少，长期看 是支撑；地缘紧张也没真正消失，避险需求不会凭一两天的暴跌就走远。 美元这头也不能忽视，美联储一句话能让市场情绪颠簸，但要把美元信用的长期问题一下子解决，那不是一句鹰派言论能做到的，所 ...