在汇率与利率双重波动的影响下，无论是配置美元资产，还是持有人民币债券理财，收益的不确定性均 有所上升。业内人士表示，这背后是全球货币政策转向与中国经济基本面修复共振的结果，意味着投资 者必须告别"绝对无风险"的旧有观念，重新学习在波动中寻找平衡。 境内外理财同时承压 这种变化，并非停留在宏观层面，而是已经传导至普通投资者的实际收益中。 年初，张华（化名）决定把一部分积蓄换成美元。他用约7.3万元人民币买入1万美元的美元理财产品， 希望在美债高利率环境下获取相对稳健的利息收益。几个月下来，这笔理财的累计收益率为2.53%，美 元资产增加到10253美元，账面表现并不差。 然而，汇率变化很快改变了最终结果。随着人民币持续走强，按最新汇率折算，这笔美元资产约合7.22 万元人民币，较买入时反而减少近800元。"利息赚到了，汇率变化却把收益吃掉了。"张华无奈地说。 这一经历，直观体现了汇率波动对外币理财收益的影响。在人民币升值背景下，即便美元资产本身获得 不错的利息收益，折算回人民币后，仍可能出现"赚息不赚钱"的情况。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 徐潇潇 张欣然）随着人民币汇率持续走强、债 ...

Core Insights - Silver prices have reached a new historical high, with spot silver hitting $58.945 per ounce on December 3, 2023, and currently trading above $58.8 per ounce, reflecting a 0.75% increase [1] - Year-to-date, spot silver has surged by 103%, significantly outperforming gold, which has risen by 60% [2] - The primary drivers for silver's recent performance include macroeconomic expectations, physical supply shortages, and market sentiment [2] Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by clear expectations of monetary easing, which has strengthened silver's financial attributes. Market forecasts for Federal Reserve rate cuts are providing strong support for silver prices [2] - Historical low inventory levels and structural tightness due to futures delivery periods are direct catalysts for the price surge. Global silver inventories are at multi-year lows, making the market's buffer capacity extremely fragile [2] - Geopolitical uncertainties and defensive positioning in precious metals during high stock market volatility have further fueled market sentiment [2] Short-term Outlook - The silver market is expected to experience high volatility driven by short-term events, with significant profit-taking pressure at current high levels. Any disappointing news could trigger a technical correction [3] - The extremely low visible global inventory provides a strong foundation against deep price declines, with potential for upward price volatility due to delivery issues [3] - Key price levels to watch are between $57 per ounce (support) and $60 per ounce (resistance), with the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting being a critical trigger for short-term direction [3] Long-term Trends - The long-term upward trend for silver is supported by three core factors: the shift in global monetary policy from tightening to easing, central bank gold purchases re-evaluating precious metal values, and increasing demand for silver in green industrial applications [4] - The upward trajectory is not expected to be linear, as the market transitions from "easing expectations" to validating "economic realities" and "policy rhythms," which may lead to periodic adjustments in silver prices [4] - Investors should prepare for potential complexities and volatility in the silver market as macroeconomic data and liquidity expectations evolve [4] Investment Strategies - For ordinary investors, strict risk management is crucial in the current high-volatility environment. Directly chasing high silver prices poses significant risks, and high leverage should be avoided [5] - Investors are advised to choose investment tools that align with their risk tolerance, such as silver ETFs or bank silver products, which can mitigate the complexities of futures delivery and high leverage [5] - Experienced market participants considering swing trading should focus on timing and wait for significant market corrections due to macro events or sentiment shifts before entering positions, while maintaining clear stop-loss disciplines [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the expectation of a 15% to 20% increase in gold prices next year, emphasizing the importance of understanding the underlying logic behind this prediction rather than just following market trends [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global monetary policy is shifting, with increasing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset [3]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset to hedge against risks [3]. - Central banks worldwide are engaging in de-dollarization and accumulating gold reserves, with significant purchases from countries like China, which supports the long-term upward trend in gold prices [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to control their positions in gold, suggesting a portfolio allocation of 5% to 10% to balance risk and returns [4]. - A strategy of dollar-cost averaging is recommended, where investors gradually buy gold ETFs or increase their holdings during price dips to average out costs [4]. - It is suggested that ordinary investors avoid complex gold futures due to high leverage risks and instead opt for physical gold or gold ETFs for simplicity and safety [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The article asserts that while Wall Street's bullish predictions are based on solid reasoning, investors should focus on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations [4]. - The current market for gold is characterized as being in a mid to long-term upward cycle, with the core factors supporting its rise remaining unchanged [4].

Global Monetary Policy Shift Tracking - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% in September 2025, aligning with market expectations. Seven out of 26 major economies tracked have cut rates, with the European Central Bank (ECB) maintaining a hawkish stance despite not changing rates for the third consecutive time [2][11] - There is uncertainty regarding further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year. Initially, there was a strong expectation for cuts in October and December, but this has since cooled, with only a 70% probability for a December cut as of late October [3][17] - China's real interest rate has slightly decreased from 3% at the end of September to 2.9% in October 2025, remaining relatively high compared to 13 other economies [3][26] Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's reserve balance has decreased to $2.83 trillion, with a nominal GDP ratio of approximately 12%, indicating that redundant liquidity is nearly exhausted. The ONRRP balance has significantly shrunk to $19.5 billion [4][30] - Various liquidity spreads have shown significant increases, with the EFFR-IOER spread narrowing from -7 basis points to a minimum of -3 basis points, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions [5][37] - The U.S. Treasury bond bid-ask spread has remained stable, indicating that the bond market has not experienced significant widening despite the liquidity tightening from the Fed's balance sheet reduction [7][43] Financial Market Liquidity Tracking - The Libor-OIS spread has risen sharply, reaching a maximum of 110 basis points, indicating tightening liquidity conditions in the U.S. dollar market. However, offshore dollar swap points remain low, suggesting ample liquidity in offshore markets [8][45] - Credit risk premiums in the U.S. have remained low despite recent regional banking credit events, with investment-grade credit default swap (CDS) prices showing only slight increases [8][51]

Global Monetary Policy Tracking - The major central banks of the US, Eurozone, and Japan have maintained their interest rates unchanged as of July 2025, with the Federal Reserve holding rates at 4.25%-4.5% [2][12] - The expectation for rate cuts in the US has decreased, with the anticipated number of cuts dropping from nearly 3 in early July to less than 2 by the end of July, and the probability of a September cut falling from 90% to about 40% [3][19] - In the Eurozone, the expectation for a rate cut has also cooled, with the probability of a September cut decreasing from 42% to approximately 10% [3][19] - Japan's central bank has maintained its policy rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, with inflation expectations being revised upwards [3][15] Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has contracted, with reserves shrinking by $57.7 billion since the beginning of the tapering process, and a monthly reduction of $47.6 billion in July 2025 [4][27] - The liquidity in the non-bank sector is tightening, as indicated by the frequent positive spread between SOFR and EFFR rates, reflecting a significant liquidity squeeze in non-bank institutions [4][30] - The liquidity premium in the US dollar market remains elevated, with the Libor-OIS spread maintaining a high level, indicating that liquidity is still ample despite some tightening [6][40] Credit Risk Premium - Since July 2025, the OAS of US high-yield credit bonds and the CDS prices for high-yield and investment-grade bonds have seen a slight increase, indicating a rise in credit risk premium [9][45] - In contrast, CDS prices for credit bonds in Europe, Japan, and Asia remain low, suggesting a relatively stable credit environment outside the US [9][45]

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy Overview - The major central banks of the US, Eurozone, and Japan have maintained their interest rates unchanged as of July 2025, with the Federal Reserve holding rates at 4.25%-4.5%[2] - In July 2025, 4 out of 26 tracked economies reduced interest rates, down from 6 in June 2025[2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) paused its rate cuts after seven consecutive reductions, while the Bank of Japan has also kept its policy rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time[2] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve's expectation for rate cuts has cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts for the year dropping from nearly 3 in early July to less than 2 by the end of July[3] - The probability of a rate cut in September for the Federal Reserve decreased from 90% to about 40% but rebounded to nearly 90% in early August due to significant downward revisions in US non-farm payroll data[3] - The ECB's rate cut expectations fell from a forecast of one more cut in July to no cuts by the end of July, with September cut probability dropping from 42% to approximately 10%[3] Group 3: China's Interest Rate Position - China's nominal interest rate increased slightly, leading to a rise in real interest rates from 3% in June to 3.1% in July 2025, placing it at the 69th percentile historically since 2014[3] - China's real interest rate ranking among 13 major economies has dropped to 10th place in 2025, down from 11th in 2024[3] Group 4: US Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet and Liquidity - As of July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve's reserves have shrunk by $57.7 billion compared to pre-tightening levels, with a monthly reduction of $47.6 billion in July[4] - The use of the discount window has increased, indicating potential liquidity stress among some smaller banks[4] - The SOFR-EFFR spread has frequently turned positive since 2025, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions for non-bank institutions[5] Group 5: Global Financial Market Liquidity - The bid-ask spread for US 10Y Treasuries has increased, indicating tighter supply-demand conditions, with the spread at the 66th percentile historically since 2001[6] - Credit spreads for high-yield bonds in the US have slightly widened since July, while spreads in Japan, Europe, and Asia remain low[6]

Group 1 - The performance pressure from real estate US dollar bonds on Hong Kong's Chinese banks is gradually easing, with reduced impairment provisions reported by several financial institutions [1] - The issuance scale of offshore bonds in Asia has increased, and investor risk appetite has improved, leading to a better differentiation between investment-grade and high-yield sectors [1] - The losses suffered by Hong Kong Chinese banks due to defaults on mainland real estate US dollar bonds have been significant, with some banks having over 50% of their loan portfolios tied to real estate [1] Group 2 - The recovery of Hong Kong's capital markets has brought growth opportunities for Chinese banks, particularly in brokerage and investment banking services, with notable increases in commission and fee income [2] - For example, the commission and fee income of交银国际 increased by 25.75% to HKD 1.79 billion, with corporate financing and underwriting services seeing a significant growth of 104.2% [2] - The net profit of all securities dealers and margin financiers in Hong Kong reached HKD 44.4 billion, a 56% year-on-year increase, indicating a robust recovery in the market [2]