中国基金圈第一个"十年十倍"的收益预期，在 2026 年 1 月被证伪了。 2015 年 4 月，银行螺丝钉注册了公众号"定投十年赚十倍"，开启了他与基金定投的理念以及十年十倍的预期，绑定在一起的职业生涯。2016 年 1 月，他正 式上线了自己的基金组合。 在 2015 年春天那个遍地一年十倍股的市场里，"十年十倍"似乎是个看上去有些保守的口号。哪怕后来杠杆牛分崩离析，A 股在熔断机制下遭遇了最黑色的新 年，2016 年 1 月，银行螺丝钉正式上线"指数组合"，即将成为拥有公开业绩的基金大 V 时，仍没有直面十年十倍需要长期年化达到 25% 的难度。 这是一个几乎没有人能实现的数字。整整十年过去，中国业绩最好的含权公募基金是华商优势行业，十年累计收益不到 6 倍。 而银行螺丝钉显然也并没有成为一个奇迹。公众号"微积分量化价投"对其指数组合过去十年的业绩进行拼接之后，计算出实际的累计收益率约在22.1%左右， 折算成年化仅有 2.14%。 在投资行业里，一个人一旦有了公开业绩，那么除了净值曲线，其他说什么都是没用的。 不过，严格意义上来讲，银行螺丝钉不是投资经理，而是基金投顾。 从字面上看，做基金投顾比做基金 ...

Group 1 - The relationship between the number of stocks invested and risk indicates that investing in only 2 stocks results in a volatility risk that is 2-3 times higher than the overall market risk [3][4] - Increasing the number of stocks to 20 leads to a risk that is 1/3 to 2/3 higher than the overall market volatility risk [4][5] - When the number of stocks reaches 50, the risk level aligns with the overall market risk, as many indices, such as the SSE 50 and STAR Market 50, start with 50 stocks [4][5] Group 2 - Further increasing the number of stocks beyond 50 does not significantly reduce risk, as seen in indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500, which include 300 and 500 stocks respectively, where the risk mirrors the market risk [5] - For most ordinary investors, utilizing fund portfolios to invest in dozens or even hundreds of stocks is a more prudent choice for effective diversification and risk management [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing significant volatility with extreme structural characteristics, where the CPO and technology sectors are declining while the index is rising [1] - The core contradiction of the market adjustment lies in the change in funding structure, highlighted by the record high margin financing balance since 2016, indicating potential overheating risks [1] - Institutional funds are withdrawing, as evidenced by over 10 billion yuan in redemptions from the Sci-Tech 50 ETF in the past two weeks [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in the growth sector is not over, with high-valued technology stocks needing to digest valuation bubbles [1] - Funds that flowed out of CPO have moved into dividend, CXO, and new energy sectors, but the adjustment phase is still ongoing, with funds searching for upward trends [1] - Short-term investors are advised to adopt a defensive strategy, such as investing in fund combinations, while mid-term attention should be given to potential mainline opportunities in CXO, chemicals, and new consumption sectors [1]