Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of new policies on the sales of commercial vehicles, particularly focusing on the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy, which has led to a significant increase in heavy truck sales in China [11][12]. Policy and Regulations - The "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy was implemented on March 18, 2025, by the Ministry of Transport and other departments, expanding the subsidy range and relaxing fuel restrictions [9]. - The policy has resulted in a year-on-year increase in heavy truck sales, with a notable 44.4% growth from March to June 2025 [11]. - However, some provinces like Shanxi and Hebei experienced a decline in sales due to local fiscal conditions and the efficiency of policy execution [12]. Market Insights - From January to June 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of commercial vehicle power batteries reached 51.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 126.2% [21]. - The market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five battery manufacturers holding 89.8% of the market share [30]. - The top three battery manufacturers, CATL, EVE, and Guoxuan High-Tech, have introduced innovative products targeting the heavy truck market, focusing on high energy density and fast charging capabilities [31]. Company Monitoring - SAIC Yujin launched two new energy light trucks, the Danna T2 and T3, aimed at logistics and urban distribution [33]. - Geely's remote hydrogen technology completed a third round of financing exceeding $200 million, focusing on product development and ecosystem construction [39]. - Beiqi Heavy Truck introduced the "Blue Dream" brand, emphasizing smart technology in logistics with new electric heavy trucks [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a recovery in profitability, with revenue of 84.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 14 billion yuan, up 33% year-on-year and down 5% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The company expects a stable production schedule for Q2 2025, with a projected shipment growth of 25% to 30% for the year, driven by increased market share in Europe and additional contributions from commercial vehicles and data center storage batteries [2][4] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - Q1 2025 saw a shipment of 125 GWh, a 30% increase year-on-year, although down 13% quarter-on-quarter. The increase in energy storage's share has extended the revenue recognition cycle [2] - The average unit price of batteries in Q1 was 0.6 yuan/Wh, down 17% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to lower raw material costs [2] - The company's Q1 operating and net profit per unit were 0.084 and 0.099 yuan/Wh, respectively, both showing a nearly 10% increase [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates minimal impact from U.S. tariffs, with exposure remaining in the low single digits. The tariff policies in other countries are stable, and European shipments are expected to grow over 20% [2] - The company maintains a target return on equity (ROE) of 24% to 25% [2] Research and Development - The company is significantly investing in R&D, with innovations such as the "Shenxing" ultra-fast charging battery and "Tianxing" heavy-duty commercial vehicle battery being developed. The company is also enhancing manufacturing efficiency through automation technologies [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 70 billion yuan in 2025 and 83.9 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14x and 12x [4][7]

2025 年 04 月 15 日 业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 14 日，宁德发布 2025 年一季报，实现营收 847 亿 元，同/环+6%/-18%；实现归母 140 亿元，同/环+33%/-5%；实现 扣非 118 亿元，同/环+28%/-8%。毛利率 24.4%，同/环-2/+9pct； 净利率 17.6%，同/环+4%/+3pct。业绩符合预期。 经营分析 1、盈利环比回升、出货同增 30%。 1）量：1Q25 预计确收 125GWh，同/环+30%/-13%。确收慢于发货 量主要系储能交流侧占比提升，服务较设备确收周期延长。储能、 动力比例为 20%、80%，保持稳定。 2）价/成本：按照公司电池业务收入占比近 90%测算，Q1 单位电 池价格为 0.6 元/Wh，同/环-17%/-5%；主要系碳酸锂等原材料成 本中枢下移，亦影响公司收入增速慢于产品销售。 3）利：测算公司 Q1 单位经营性、归母净利为 0.084、0.099 元 /Wh，假设 90%电池利润占比、不做任何计提减值加回等，同环比 均提升近 10%，单位净利稳健为公司经营策略，目标 ROE 稳定在 24%～25%。 2、Q2、20 ...

1、需求保持高增，盈利维持韧性。 1）量：公司 2024/Q4 分别出货 474/144GWh，同增分别 22%/23%， 环增 12%。神行、麒麟等持续导入，占比预计从 2024 年 3-4 成提 升至 2025 年 6-7 成。 2）价/成本：拆分公司 Q4 电池价格稳定在 0.60-0.65 元/Wh，环 比持平；2024 年同降近 17%，主要系年内碳酸锂等主要材料价格 下降。展望 2025 年部分环节原材料价格波动下公司仍目标降低电 池成本。 2025 年 03 月 15 日 宁德时代（300750.SZ） 买入（维持评级） 公司点评 证券研究报告 业绩符合预期，盈利维持韧性 业绩简评 2025 年 3 月 14 日，公司发布 2024 年业绩，实现收入 3620 亿元， 同降 10%；归母净利 507 亿元，同增 15%；扣非净利 450 亿元，同 增 12%。单 Q4，实现收入 1030 亿元，同降 3%；归母净利 147 亿 元，同/环增 14%/12%；扣非净利 128 亿元，同/环增-2%/6%。业绩 符合预期。 经营分析 3）利：Q4 毛利率受到 118 亿元全年质保金集中调入 Q4 营 ...

业绩符合预期，盈利维持韧性 业绩简评 2025 年 03 月 15 日 宁德时代（300750.SZ） 买入（维持评级） 公司点评 证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 14 日，公司发布 2024 年业绩，实现收入 3620 亿元， 同降 10%；归母净利 507 亿元，同增 15%；扣非净利 450 亿元，同 增 12%。单 Q4，实现收入 1030 亿元，同降 3%；归母净利 147 亿 元，同/环增 14%/12%；扣非净利 128 亿元，同/环增-2%/6%。业绩 符合预期。 经营分析 1、需求保持高增，盈利维持韧性。 1）量：公司 2024/Q4 分别出货 474/144GWh，同增分别 22%/23%， 环增 12%。神行、麒麟等持续导入，占比预计从 2024 年 3-4 成提 升至 2025 年 6-7 成。 2）价/成本：拆分公司 Q4 电池价格稳定在 0.60-0.65 元/Wh，环 比持平；2024 年同降近 17%，主要系年内碳酸锂等主要材料价格 下降。展望 2025 年部分环节原材料价格波动下公司仍目标降低电 池成本。 3）利：Q4 毛利率受到 118 亿元全年质保金集中调入 Q4 营 ...

业绩简评 2025 年 3 月 14 日，公司发布 2024 年业绩，实现收入 3620 亿元， 同降 10%；归母净利 507 亿元，同增 15%；扣非净利 450 亿元，同 增 12%。单 Q4，实现收入 1030 亿元，同降 3%；归母净利 147 亿 元，同/环增 14%/12%；扣非净利 128 亿元，同/环增-2%/6%。业绩 符合预期。 经营分析 2025 年 03 月 15 日 宁德时代（300750.SZ） 买入（维持评级） 公司点评 证券研究报告 业绩符合预期，盈利维持韧性 1、需求保持高增，盈利维持韧性。 1）量：公司 2024/Q4 分别出货 474/144GWh，同增分别 22%/23%， 环增 12%。神行、麒麟等持续导入，占比预计从 2024 年 3-4 成提 升至 2025 年 6-7 成。 2）价/成本：拆分公司 Q4 电池价格稳定在 0.60-0.65 元/Wh，环 比持平；2024 年同降近 17%，主要系年内碳酸锂等主要材料价格 下降。展望 2025 年部分环节原材料价格波动下公司仍目标降低电 池成本。 3）利：Q4 毛利率受到 118 亿元全年质保金集中调入 Q4 营 ...