Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%. However, it faced a Non-IFRS net loss of 16 billion yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [2]. - The local core business revenue was 67.4 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan, indicating a significant decline in profitability [3]. - New business revenue reached 28 billion yuan, reflecting a robust growth of 15.9% year-on-year, although it still incurred an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 364.1 billion yuan, 419.9 billion yuan, and 486.7 billion yuan, respectively. The Non-IFRS net profits are expected to be -18.1 billion yuan in 2025, 16.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 48.2 billion yuan in 2027 [5][10]. - The operating income growth rate is projected to be 7.88% in 2025, followed by 15.31% in 2026 and 15.91% in 2027 [10]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in operating efficiency and user engagement in the new business segments, particularly in grocery retail and international expansion [4].

Core Insights - The service retail sector is experiencing unexpected vitality and growth potential, transforming from perceived sunset industries into promising opportunities [2][4] - The sector's online penetration is currently low at 9%, indicating significant room for growth within a 7 trillion yuan market [6][12] Group 1: Service Retail Growth - Service retail has been officially recognized as a key component of China's consumption data, reflecting its unstoppable development trend [4][6] - In 2024, service retail is projected to grow by 6.2%, outpacing the 3.0% growth of goods retail [6] - The compound annual growth rate of service retail over the past three years has been 8%, consistently outperforming GDP growth [6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The average per capita service consumption expenditure in 2024 is expected to reach 13,016 yuan, a 7.4% increase from the previous year [8] - Service consumption is becoming a necessity rather than an option, driven by changing consumer demands for cultural experiences and health management [8][9] - Predictions indicate that by 2030, service consumption will surpass goods consumption, with a projected annual growth rate of 9.2% for services [8] Group 3: Structural Challenges - The service retail industry faces significant structural challenges, including low levels of standardization and scalability [10][12] - Currently, only three companies in the 7 trillion yuan service retail market have reached a scale of 10 billion yuan, highlighting the disparity with the goods retail sector [14] - The inherent non-standard nature of services complicates the online transition, as service delivery must occur in-person [12][13] Group 4: Role of Platforms - Platforms like Meituan are crucial in addressing structural challenges and creating incremental value in the service retail market [15] - Meituan has accumulated a user base of 470 million in service retail, with over 5 billion orders processed [15] - Innovations such as AI-driven self-service models are emerging, enhancing operational efficiency and customer experience [18][19]