Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.8% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 2.26 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year [1] Business Performance - The company's express delivery volume in Q1 was 8.54 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.1% with a market share of 18.9% [1] - The average revenue per express delivery piece decreased by 0.11 yuan to 1.25 yuan, a decline of 8.1%, primarily due to increased incremental subsidies and a decrease in average weight [1] - The company reported a year-on-year increase of 46% in the volume of differentiated products, including time-sensitive and customized services [1] Cost Analysis - The cost per express delivery piece remained stable at 0.94 yuan, with transportation costs decreasing by 0.06 yuan to 0.41 yuan, a decline of 12.8% [1] - Sorting costs also saw a reduction of 0.03 yuan to 0.27 yuan, down 10.0% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit per express delivery piece was 0.26 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% [1] Future Outlook - The company maintains a business volume growth guidance of 20%-24% for 2025, aiming for high-quality growth [1] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 50.215 billion, 56.275 billion, and 62.163 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 13.40%, 12.07%, and 10.46% [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 9.535 billion, 11.107 billion, and 12.213 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.14%, 16.49%, and 9.96% [2]

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：闫海/王易/范晨轩 投资要点： 中通快递发布2025 年一季报。一季度公司实现营业收入108.92 亿元，同比增长9.4%；调整后净利润 22.59 亿元，同比增长1.6%。业绩符合预期。 件量增速回归，高服务质量推动公司散件业务量高增。25Q1 公司业务完成量85.39 亿件，同比增长 19.1%，略低于行业增速（21.6%），散件业务量同比增长46%，远高于公司件量增速，主要得益于公司 在退货领域的深入拓展，同时持续深化与电商平台及企业客户的合作，发展包括时效件服务与定制化客 户服务在内的差异化产品。随着公司到角到边政策的落实及驿站覆盖面的扩大，我们看好公司后续散件 业务量的持续增长。 核心成本持续改善，行业竞争日益激烈下业绩保持韧性，看好公司市占率的进一步提升。 根据公司公告，一季度公司单票分拨成本为0.27 元/票，同比下降0.03 元；单票运输成本为0.41 元/票， 同比下降0.06 元，核心成本降幅达到0.09 元。公司运营能力及成本效率持续改善，末端直链推广带动全 链路成本优化，使得公司在行业日益激烈的竞争中仍能保持业绩韧性。另外25 年一季报中公司维持25 年业务 ...