Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that ZTO Express reported a revenue of 10.892 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan, up 1.6%, which aligns with expectations [1] - The volume of business completed by the company reached 8.539 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6%. The volume of scattered goods increased by 46% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall business volume growth, driven by the company's expansion in the returns sector and deepening collaborations with e-commerce platforms and corporate clients [1] - The company is optimistic about the continued growth of its scattered goods business due to the implementation of its corner-to-corner policy and the expansion of its service station coverage [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the company's single ticket distribution cost was 0.27 yuan per ticket, down 0.03 yuan year-on-year, while the single ticket transportation cost was 0.41 yuan per ticket, down 0.06 yuan, indicating a core cost reduction of 0.09 yuan [2] - The company's operational capabilities and cost efficiency are improving, allowing it to maintain performance resilience amid increasing industry competition. The company expects a business volume growth rate of 20%-24% for 2025 [2] - The profit forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted downwards, with expected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 being 9.54 billion, 10.53 billion, and 12.05 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -6%, 10%, and 14% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express [5] Core Views - ZTO Express reported Q1 2025 results with revenue of 10.892 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion CNY, up 1.6%, which met expectations [5] - The volume growth has returned, with high service quality driving significant growth in the company's parcel business. In Q1 2025, the company handled 8.539 billion parcels, a 19.1% year-on-year increase, slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6%. The parcel business volume grew by 46% year-on-year, benefiting from the company's expansion in the returns sector and deepening collaborations with e-commerce platforms and corporate clients [5] - Core costs continue to improve despite increasing industry competition, indicating resilience in performance. The report notes a decrease in per parcel sorting cost to 0.27 CNY and transportation cost to 0.41 CNY, with a total core cost reduction of 0.09 CNY. The company maintains a projected business volume growth rate of 20%-24% for 2025 [5] - The profit forecast has been slightly adjusted downwards due to competitive pressures in the express delivery industry. The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 are 9.54 billion CNY, 10.53 billion CNY, and 12.05 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -6%, 10%, and 14% respectively [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (CNY million): 2023: 38,419; 2024: 44,281; 2025E: 48,669; 2026E: 55,122; 2027E: 62,067 [2] - Adjusted Net Profit (CNY million): 2023: 9,006; 2024: 10,150; 2025E: 9,540; 2026E: 10,531; 2027E: 12,045 [2] - Net Asset Return Rate (%): 2023: 14.52; 2024: 13.33; 2025E: 13.87; 2026E: 14.27; 2027E: 15.27 [2] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (x): 2023: 11.2; 2024: 10.0; 2025E: 10.6; 2026E: 9.6; 2027E: 8.4 [2] - Price-to-Book Ratio (x): 2023: 1.7; 2024: 1.6; 2025E: 1.3; 2026E: 1.1; 2027E: 1.0 [2]

证券研究报告 圆通速递 (600233 CH) 24 年量价均衡，单票毛利承压 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 仓储物流 | 圆通速递发布 2024 年及 1Q25 业绩：1）24 年实现营业收入/归母净利 690.3 亿/40.1 亿元，同比+19.7%/+7.8%，其中，快递业务实现营业收入/归母净 利 622.9 亿/43.1 亿元，同比+19.2%/12.2%；2）1Q25 实现营业收入/归母 净利 170.6 亿/8.6 亿元，同比+10.6%/-9.2%。24 年归母净利低于我们此前 预期（44.7 亿元），主因：1）快递以外业务亏损拖累盈利，航空业务毛利-1.7 亿元；2）低价件占比提升，使得行业件均价持续下行，为公司经营带来压 力，单票毛利同比下降。展望 25 年，龙头渴求份额或加剧行业竞争，盈利 仍承压，但我们看好公司持续强化全链路管控、时效水平提升、服务质量改 善，实现价格与件量规模均衡发展，维持"买入"。 24 年公司件量增速高于行业，量价表现均衡 件量方面，24 年公司 ...

证券研究报告 圆通速递 (600233 CH) 24 年量价均衡，单票毛利承压 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 29 日│中国内地 | 仓储物流 | 圆通速递发布 2024 年及 1Q25 业绩：1）24 年实现营业收入/归母净利 690.3 亿/40.1 亿元，同比+19.7%/+7.8%，其中，快递业务实现营业收入/归母净 利 622.9 亿/43.1 亿元，同比+19.2%/12.2%；2）1Q25 实现营业收入/归母 净利 170.6 亿/8.6 亿元，同比+10.6%/-9.2%。24 年归母净利低于我们此前 预期（44.7 亿元），主因：1）快递以外业务亏损拖累盈利，航空业务毛利-1.7 亿元；2）低价件占比提升，使得行业件均价持续下行，为公司经营带来压 力，单票毛利同比下降。展望 25 年，龙头渴求份额或加剧行业竞争，盈利 仍承压，但我们看好公司持续强化全链路管控、时效水平提升、服务质量改 善，实现价格与件量规模均衡发展，维持"买入"。 24 年公司件量增速高于行业，量价表现均衡 件量方面，24 年公司 ...