Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.8% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 2.26 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year [1] Business Performance - The company's express delivery volume in Q1 was 8.54 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.1% with a market share of 18.9% [1] - The average revenue per express delivery piece decreased by 0.11 yuan to 1.25 yuan, a decline of 8.1%, primarily due to increased incremental subsidies and a decrease in average weight [1] - The company reported a year-on-year increase of 46% in the volume of differentiated products, including time-sensitive and customized services [1] Cost Analysis - The cost per express delivery piece remained stable at 0.94 yuan, with transportation costs decreasing by 0.06 yuan to 0.41 yuan, a decline of 12.8% [1] - Sorting costs also saw a reduction of 0.03 yuan to 0.27 yuan, down 10.0% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit per express delivery piece was 0.26 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% [1] Future Outlook - The company maintains a business volume growth guidance of 20%-24% for 2025, aiming for high-quality growth [1] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 50.215 billion, 56.275 billion, and 62.163 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 13.40%, 12.07%, and 10.46% [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 9.535 billion, 11.107 billion, and 12.213 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.14%, 16.49%, and 9.96% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6][4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.99 billion yuan, up 39.8% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 2.26 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.6% year-on-year growth. Given the company's leading position in the industry and robust profitability, the "Buy" rating is maintained [4][16][12] - The company focused on market share growth, with a Q1 express delivery volume of 8.54 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, capturing a market share of 18.9% [13][12] - The company expects a business volume growth rate of 20%-24% for 2025, with a projected package volume of approximately 40.8-42.2 billion pieces [15][12] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 50.22 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13.40%, 12.07%, and 10.46% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 9.53 billion yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.14%, 16.49%, and 9.96% for the following years [16][17] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 11.85 yuan for 2025, increasing to 15.18 yuan by 2027 [17][16] Cost and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company's core express delivery cost per piece remained stable at 0.94 yuan, with a transportation cost decrease of 0.06 yuan to 0.41 yuan, a decline of 12.8% [14][12] - The adjusted net profit per piece was 0.26 yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year [14][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 10.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.26 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year. The core express service revenue was 10.12 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% increase, driven by a 19.1% growth in package volume and a 7.8% decrease in package price [2] - The company reiterated its package volume guidance for 2025 to be between 40.8 billion and 42.2 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing cost efficiency amid intense industry price competition, with a single ticket revenue of 1.25 yuan, down 0.11 yuan year-on-year, and a single ticket transportation cost of 0.41 yuan, down 0.06 yuan year-on-year [6] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have an operating revenue of 50.17 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 9.64 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5% compared to 2024. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 11.39 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.04 [9] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.36 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with capital expenditures of 1.97 billion yuan [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that ZTO Express reported a revenue of 10.892 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan, up 1.6%, which aligns with expectations [1] - The volume of business completed by the company reached 8.539 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6%. The volume of scattered goods increased by 46% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall business volume growth, driven by the company's expansion in the returns sector and deepening collaborations with e-commerce platforms and corporate clients [1] - The company is optimistic about the continued growth of its scattered goods business due to the implementation of its corner-to-corner policy and the expansion of its service station coverage [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the company's single ticket distribution cost was 0.27 yuan per ticket, down 0.03 yuan year-on-year, while the single ticket transportation cost was 0.41 yuan per ticket, down 0.06 yuan, indicating a core cost reduction of 0.09 yuan [2] - The company's operational capabilities and cost efficiency are improving, allowing it to maintain performance resilience amid increasing industry competition. The company expects a business volume growth rate of 20%-24% for 2025 [2] - The profit forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted downwards, with expected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 being 9.54 billion, 10.53 billion, and 12.05 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -6%, 10%, and 14% [2]