来源：智通财经 财报指出，上半年快递行业竞争激烈，价格持续下调。公司单票快递收入承压，达0.30美元，上年同期 为0.34美元。公司持续优化不同电商平台的包裹量结构，改善货物品类结构，推动逆向件和散单件稳步 发展。自今年7月起在国家邮政局"反内卷"政策倡导下，行业价格竞争趋于理性，义乌、广东等重要产 粮区价格边际回升。（智通财经记者 邵冰燕） 8月29日，极兔速递（1519.HK）公布今年中期业绩，上半年总收入55亿美元，同比增长13.1%；经调整 净利润1.6亿美元，同比大增147.1%；期内利润为0.89亿美元，同比增186.6%。上半年完成总包裹量达 139.9亿件，同比增27%。 其中，中国市场包裹量提升20%，市场份额提升0.1个百分点至11.1%。上半年中国业务的经调整EBIT为 0.13亿美元，上年同期为0.6亿美元，经调整EBIT率为0.4%。经调整EBITDA为1.55亿美元，上年同期为 2亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing intense competition, with SF Express leading in business volume growth while facing significant pressure on single-package revenue. The "Tongda system" companies are struggling to maintain market share without overly relying on price wars [2][5]. Group 1: Business Performance - In May, SF Express achieved a business volume of 1.477 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 31.76%, significantly outpacing the industry average [5][6]. - YTO Express reported a business volume of 2.764 billion packages, up 21.02%, while Yunda and Shentong reported volumes of 2.303 billion and 2.264 billion packages, growing 12.78% and 16.35% respectively [5][6]. - SF Express has consistently led in business volume growth since the beginning of the year, with growth rates of 25.4%, 29.9%, and 31.8% from March to May [5][6]. Group 2: Revenue and Pricing - SF Express's revenue from express delivery was 19.381 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of 13.36%. However, its single-package revenue fell to 13.12 yuan, a decrease of 13.97% [3][7]. - YTO's single-package revenue was 2.12 yuan, down 5.09%, while Yunda and Shentong's revenues dropped to 1.92 yuan and 1.95 yuan, reflecting declines of 5.42% and 2.99% respectively [3][8]. - The overall trend indicates that while the "Tongda system" companies maintain revenue growth through scale effects, they face downward pressure on pricing, necessitating a balance between price competition and service quality [2][8]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Outlook - SF Express is focusing on high-end market positioning and has benefited from increased demand for high-tech product deliveries, driven by national consumption stimulus policies [6][7]. - The competitive landscape is becoming more pronounced, with SF Express leveraging its high-end services to capture higher value markets, while YTO relies on its established network for steady growth [6][8]. - The industry experts suggest that the key challenge for Yunda and Shentong is to enhance service quality and optimize cost structures while navigating the ongoing price competition [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 10.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.26 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year. The core express service revenue was 10.12 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% increase, driven by a 19.1% growth in package volume and a 7.8% decrease in package price [2] - The company reiterated its package volume guidance for 2025 to be between 40.8 billion and 42.2 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing cost efficiency amid intense industry price competition, with a single ticket revenue of 1.25 yuan, down 0.11 yuan year-on-year, and a single ticket transportation cost of 0.41 yuan, down 0.06 yuan year-on-year [6] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have an operating revenue of 50.17 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 9.64 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5% compared to 2024. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 11.39 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.04 [9] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.36 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with capital expenditures of 1.97 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - ZTO Express's 1Q25 core net profit increased by 5% YoY to RMB1.96 billion, primarily supported by government subsidies and tax rebates amounting to RMB407 million, which are likely to be one-off in nature [1][2] - The average selling price (ASP) dropped by 8% YoY to RMB1.25 per parcel, while parcel volume grew by 19% YoY to 8.54 billion units, indicating a lag behind the industry average [1][3] - The company has revised its earnings forecast for 2025E-27E down by 18-21% due to lower parcel ASP assumptions and has adjusted its target price to US$22.2/HK$174 [1] Financial Performance - Core net profit growth of 5% was driven by a 9% revenue increase but offset by a 25% YoY contraction in unit gross profit to RMB0.31 per parcel [2] - Reported net profit grew by 40% YoY to RMB1.99 billion, largely due to a low base from the previous year [2] - EBIT increased by 6% YoY, primarily aided by government subsidies and tax rebates [2] Cost Structure - Unit cost decreased by 0.4% YoY to RMB0.94 per parcel, with transportation costs dropping by 13% YoY to RMB0.41 per parcel due to economies of scale and lower diesel prices [4] - Unit cost of sorting hubs fell by 10% YoY to RMB0.27, benefiting from increased automation [4] - Other unit costs surged by 61% YoY to RMB0.25 per unit, attributed to rising key account costs [4] Market Position - ZTO's market share in 1Q25 was 18.9%, reflecting a decline of 0.4 percentage points YoY [3] - The company may need to adopt a more aggressive pricing strategy to enhance market share moving forward [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][17] Core Views - The company's profit performance has come under pressure, but its competitiveness continues to strengthen. In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 170.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.1 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year [1][7] - The company achieved rapid growth in parcel volume, with a total of 265.7 billion parcels delivered in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, which is higher than the industry growth rate of 21.5% [1][10] - The company is currently in a phase of solidifying its network foundation and expanding market share, leading to high capital expenditures, which are expected to remain elevated in 2025 [2][15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects a total revenue of 690.3 billion yuan, an increase of 19.7%, and a net profit of 38.4 billion yuan, up 6.6% [1][4] - The company’s single-ticket express delivery prices have seen a decline, with prices in Q2 2024, Q3 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 being 2.26 yuan, 2.20 yuan, 2.29 yuan, and 2.28 yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of -3.9%, -5.8%, -5.3%, and -6.3% [1][10] Cost Management - The company has implemented refined cost control measures, resulting in a reduction in single-ticket transportation costs to 0.42 yuan in both 2024 and Q1 2025, down by 0.04 yuan and 0.05 yuan year-on-year respectively [2][15] - The net profit contribution from the express delivery business, excluding the impact of air and international operations, showed a year-on-year increase of 12.2% in 2024 but a decrease of 4.7% in Q1 2025 [2][15] Future Outlook - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits of 43.0 billion yuan, 49.0 billion yuan, and 55.1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of +7%, +14%, and +12% respectively [3][17] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive advantage in the express delivery industry, which is anticipated to remain robust [3][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a rapid profit growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 48.543 billion yuan (+7.9%) and a non-net profit of 1.64 billion yuan (+18.3%) for the year [1][9]. - The company has experienced a recovery in business volume growth, with a market share stabilizing despite significant year-on-year declines in single-package prices due to intense industry competition [2][9]. - The company has seen a rebound in capacity utilization and a significant decrease in single-package costs, although the first quarter's profitability per package has declined due to increased competition [3][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 48.543 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. The non-net profit is expected to be 1.64 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.3% increase [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show a revenue of 12.19 billion yuan (+9.3%) but a decline in non-net profit to 308 million yuan (-19.9%) [1][9]. Market Position - The company has adopted a relatively aggressive pricing strategy, leading to a 12.3% decrease in single-package express delivery prices for 2024. The prices for the fourth quarter and the first quarter were approximately 2.02 yuan and 1.98 yuan, respectively [2][9]. - The business volume growth for 2024 is expected to be 26.1%, with the fourth quarter and first quarter showing year-on-year increases of 22.4% and 22.9%, respectively [2][9]. Cost and Profitability - The company's core operating costs have decreased significantly, with the single-package core operating cost (transit + transportation) at 0.68 yuan, down 21.9% year-on-year. The first quarter's single-package operating cost further optimized to 0.62 yuan, a decrease of 18.4% [3][17]. - The single-package non-net profit for the fourth quarter was stable at 0.07 yuan, but it dropped to 0.05 yuan in the first quarter of 2025 due to intensified price competition [3][17]. Future Outlook - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits of 2.0 billion yuan, 2.33 billion yuan, and 2.6 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 16.2%, and 11.5%, respectively [4][19]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 10X and 9X for 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][19].