| 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 6,793 | 9,178 | 11,493 | 13,933 | 16,138 | | (+/-)% | 62.1% | 35.1% | 25.2% | 21.2% | 15.8% | | 毛利润 | 5,109 | 7,015 | 8,817 | 10,733 | 12,485 | | 归母净利润 | 781 | 1,103 | 1,372 | 1,656 | 1,922 | | (+/-)% | 69.4% | 41.1% | 24.4% | 20.7% | 16.1% | | PE | 15.63 | 23.13 | 15.31 | 12.69 | 10.93 | | PB | 5.57 | 9.21 | 5.41 | 4.03 | 3.11 | | 资料来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 | | | | | | | | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [Table_Invest] 评级： ...

业绩高增，迈入多品牌多品类时代 上美股份(2145) 本报告导读： 家庭及个人用品 [Table_Industry] | | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [Table_Invest] 评级： | | | | | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(港元) | 42.60-102.40 | | --- | --- | | 当前股本(百万股) | 398 | | 当前市值(百万港元) | 23,867 | 公司 2025 年营收、净利润同比+35%、44%，H2 增长提速，韩束、一页全年营收同 比+32%、134%，看好公司多品类、多品牌持续拓展。 投资要点： | 风险提示：抖音算法调整、竞争恶化、新品拓展不及预期。 | | --- | | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 6,793 | 9,178 | 11,493 | 13,933 | 16,138 | | (+/-)% | 62.1% | 35.1 ...

Core Insights - The community group buying model, once favored by capital, is facing decline as major players withdraw from the market, leading to speculation about its sustainability and the rise of instant retail as a new battleground [1][3][4] - Instant retail is emerging as a response to consumer demand for immediacy, with major companies like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba investing heavily to capture a share of this trillion-yuan market [1][6][11] Community Group Buying - Community group buying combines online ordering with offline pickup, aiming to reduce costs by eliminating intermediaries and lowering logistics expenses [2] - The model saw massive capital influx starting in late 2020, with companies like Meituan and Pinduoduo offering substantial subsidies to attract users, leading to unsustainable growth [2][3] - The decline is attributed to overestimation of market potential, underestimation of costs, and low customer loyalty due to reliance on price-sensitive consumers [3][4] Instant Retail - Instant retail focuses on meeting the immediate needs of consumers, offering delivery within 30 minutes, and is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025 [6][11] - Major players are establishing clear strategies in instant retail, with Meituan leading the market, followed by Alibaba and JD, all leveraging their logistics and supply chain strengths [6][7][9] - Instant retail addresses real consumer demand for speed and convenience, particularly in fresh produce and daily necessities [6][11] Challenges and Opportunities - Instant retail faces challenges such as high delivery costs and low profit margins, similar to community group buying, with intense competition leading to price wars [8][10] - The market is expected to consolidate, with smaller retailers struggling to survive, while larger chains may expand through acquisitions [9][10] - To thrive, instant retail platforms must focus on optimizing supply chains, enhancing service quality, and shifting towards higher-priced offerings to improve margins [11][12]