11月11日，小鹏汽车（09868.HK）上涨近18%，报收108.5港元，总市值2022亿港元，超越了吉利汽车 （00175.HK）的1833亿港元。对这种突如其来的暴涨，市场人士的解读是——人工智能、机器人、增 程新车等新产品的发布超预期。 有业内人士表示，香港市场目前资金充足，依然热衷于追逐市场热点，小鹏刚好产品都在风口上，获得 资金青睐；也有市场人士提出，小鹏估值应该对标特斯拉（TSLA），之前主要反映电动车业务估值， 但并未反映人工智能、机器人等新业务快速发展。 不过，从潜在风险角度来看，尽管当前的发展趋势向好，但小鹏汽车的新业务要实现全面商业化和技术 普及，仍需克服许多技术挑战，竞争也非常激烈，增程新产品同样面临众多对手。即将公布的第三季度 财报，也存在不确定因素，市场热点可能会随时变化。 长江证券表示，历史来看，小鹏汽车从估值层面一般仅考虑了汽车业务预期，而对于AI相关的智驾、 Robotaxi、机器人和飞行汽车并未在估值中体现，因此市销率（PS）主要集中在1.5倍到2倍区间。相比 之下，特斯拉当前市销率（PS）估值超过10倍，远高于其他车企，其背后核心估值来源于重要AI应用 领域。当前小鹏处于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is at a growth inflection point driven by "product iteration + leading smart driving," with its robot business providing long-term potential and range-extended models ensuring stable sales in the short to medium term [1] Group 1: Smart Driving and Long-term Growth - Xiaopeng Motors is positioned as a core player in smart driving, with a clear long-term growth logic [1] - The penetration rate of smart driving features (L2 and above) in China is expected to reach 82.6% by the first half of 2025 [1] - The company has developed its own Turing AI chip and VLA/VLM large models, achieving nationwide "map-free" smart driving, leading the industry [1] - Future expansion plans include Robotaxi and humanoid robots, creating a three-stage growth curve of "smart driving - Robotaxi - robots" to solidify its core advantages in intelligence and form a closed industrial chain [1] Group 2: Sales Growth Driven by Range-Extended Strategy - The company has proposed a dual strategy of "range-extended + pure electric" to drive sales growth amid declining purchase tax and diverse user demands [2] - At least five range-extended models are planned, covering sedans and SUVs, with the first X9 range-extended model expected to go into production within the year [2] - This strategy, combined with popular pure electric models like Mona M03 and P7, aims to create a more balanced product matrix, with range-extended models expected to support stable sales and market share over the next 1-2 years [2] Group 3: Shift in Product Design Logic - The company has established "design" and "intelligence" as its dual strengths, shifting the R&D process from "engineering constraints first" to "design first" [3] - The new P7 model showcases differentiated results, with plans to enhance design while leveraging self-developed Turing chips and large models for upgrades in smart driving and smart cabin experiences [3] - Organizational adjustments and modular design will improve cost control, aiming to create a "no weaknesses, multiple strengths" framework in design, intelligence, and cost, with expectations to continuously launch high-tech and cost-effective popular models [3]