Group 1: Urea Market - Urea futures prices experienced wide fluctuations, closing at 1897 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 0.32% [1] - Urea supply decreased with a daily production of 192,800 tons, down by 980 tons from the previous day [1] - The overall production and sales rate in major regions was 42%, showing a day-on-day decline [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures prices opened high but weakened, closing at 1291 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.84% [1] - The industry operating rate fell to 75.45%, with ongoing maintenance plans expected to further reduce supply [1] - Demand remained stable but cautious, with downstream purchasing activity being low [1] Group 3: Glass Market - Glass futures prices declined, closing at 1016 CNY/ton, down 1.93% [1] - The average price of float glass in the domestic market was 1267 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3 CNY from the previous day [1] - The industry maintained a daily melting capacity of 155,800 tons, with manufacturers focusing on sales to avoid high inventory levels [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is affected by market sentiment and demand changes. The current fundamentals are weak, with supply pressure increasing as the daily production exceeds 200,000 tons, and demand showing marginal weakness. The market may experience a phased rebound when agricultural demand picks up, but there are risks of market fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea main contract opened and closed lower on the day, and the spot market was affected by the futures market. After the pre - holiday pre - order transactions were completed, the subsequent transactions stagnated due to the futures decline. The fundamentals remained weak, with the supply side having an increased start - up rate and some factories planning to resume production after the May Day holiday. The demand side saw improved transactions after the futures rebounded yesterday, but with the holiday stocking almost over and the decline of the futures today, it is expected that tomorrow's transactions will be weak. Some agricultural dealers started low - price stocking, but the demand from compound fertilizer factories was the main factor. The raw material urea inventory in factories was not under great pressure, and the start - up load declined. The summer fertilizer demand after the holiday would have limited incremental demand for urea. Agricultural demand was expected to relieve supply pressure in May [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main 2509 contract opened and closed lower at 1770 yuan/ton and finally closed at 1735 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.09%. The daily trading volume increased, and the open interest was 210,028 lots (+4,562 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 3,932 lots and short positions increased by 2,427 lots. Specifically, CITIC Futures' net long positions increased by 7,884 lots, Zhongtai Futures' net long positions increased by 2,770 lots, Guotai Junan's net short positions increased by 7,064 lots, and Galaxy Futures' net short positions decreased by 3,971 lots [2] - **Spot**: On April 29, 2025, the urea warehouse receipt quantity was 4,999, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot market transactions improved due to the futures rebound yesterday, but then stagnated. The ex - factory prices of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,750 - 1,780 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The price of small - particle urea in Shanxi was 1,680 - 1,710 yuan/ton, and the quoted price of large - particle urea was mostly 1,720 - 1,760 yuan/ton, and local factories had good order receipts yesterday [3][5] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation was stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on Shandong, the basis widened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 85 yuan/ton (+66 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On April 29, 2025, the national daily urea production was 203,600 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the start - up rate was 87.28% [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core View of the Report - Urea demand will increase periodically, and the futures price shows signs of a rebound, but the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 1,830 yuan/ton [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures main contract opened high and closed low, and the rebound was not smooth. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. Although the futures showed signs of a rebound in the past two days, the market demand did not provide kinetic energy support. The daily output of urea fluctuated slightly, and it was expected to continue to rise this week. The downstream purchasing power was insufficient, and the market trading sentiment was not stimulated by the futures. Agricultural demand was expected to see bargain - hunting purchases next month. The demand for urea from compound fertilizer factories was limited, and the price in the Northeast region had limited room for a significant increase under supply pressure. The inventory accumulation was large this period, indicating poor downstream demand transmission [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,789 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, and closed slightly lower at 1,762 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.56%. The daily trading volume decreased, and the open interest was 212,129 lots (+15,474 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 8,487 lots, and short positions increased by 17,260 lots. On April 23, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,163, a decrease of 97 compared with the previous trading day [2] Spot - The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The mainstream ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,770 to 1,810 yuan/ton. The price of small - particle urea in Shanxi was 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton, and the quote of large - particle urea was 1,720 - 1,750 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes were stable today, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 78 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On April 23, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 199,600 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons compared with yesterday, and the operating rate was 85.57% [9] Enterprise Inventory Data - As of April 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.065 million tons, an increase of 158,800 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 17.52%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.12 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% [12]