Group 1: Urea Market - Urea futures prices experienced wide fluctuations, closing at 1897 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 0.32% [1] - Urea supply decreased with a daily production of 192,800 tons, down by 980 tons from the previous day [1] - The overall production and sales rate in major regions was 42%, showing a day-on-day decline [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures prices opened high but weakened, closing at 1291 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.84% [1] - The industry operating rate fell to 75.45%, with ongoing maintenance plans expected to further reduce supply [1] - Demand remained stable but cautious, with downstream purchasing activity being low [1] Group 3: Glass Market - Glass futures prices declined, closing at 1016 CNY/ton, down 1.93% [1] - The average price of float glass in the domestic market was 1267 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3 CNY from the previous day [1] - The industry maintained a daily melting capacity of 155,800 tons, with manufacturers focusing on sales to avoid high inventory levels [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is affected by market sentiment and demand changes. The current fundamentals are weak, with supply pressure increasing as the daily production exceeds 200,000 tons, and demand showing marginal weakness. The market may experience a phased rebound when agricultural demand picks up, but there are risks of market fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea main contract opened and closed lower on the day, and the spot market was affected by the futures market. After the pre - holiday pre - order transactions were completed, the subsequent transactions stagnated due to the futures decline. The fundamentals remained weak, with the supply side having an increased start - up rate and some factories planning to resume production after the May Day holiday. The demand side saw improved transactions after the futures rebounded yesterday, but with the holiday stocking almost over and the decline of the futures today, it is expected that tomorrow's transactions will be weak. Some agricultural dealers started low - price stocking, but the demand from compound fertilizer factories was the main factor. The raw material urea inventory in factories was not under great pressure, and the start - up load declined. The summer fertilizer demand after the holiday would have limited incremental demand for urea. Agricultural demand was expected to relieve supply pressure in May [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main 2509 contract opened and closed lower at 1770 yuan/ton and finally closed at 1735 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.09%. The daily trading volume increased, and the open interest was 210,028 lots (+4,562 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 3,932 lots and short positions increased by 2,427 lots. Specifically, CITIC Futures' net long positions increased by 7,884 lots, Zhongtai Futures' net long positions increased by 2,770 lots, Guotai Junan's net short positions increased by 7,064 lots, and Galaxy Futures' net short positions decreased by 3,971 lots [2] - **Spot**: On April 29, 2025, the urea warehouse receipt quantity was 4,999, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot market transactions improved due to the futures rebound yesterday, but then stagnated. The ex - factory prices of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,750 - 1,780 yuan/ton, with an increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The price of small - particle urea in Shanxi was 1,680 - 1,710 yuan/ton, and the quoted price of large - particle urea was mostly 1,720 - 1,760 yuan/ton, and local factories had good order receipts yesterday [3][5] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation was stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on Shandong, the basis widened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 85 yuan/ton (+66 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On April 29, 2025, the national daily urea production was 203,600 tons, unchanged from yesterday, and the start - up rate was 87.28% [10]

【冠通研究】 震荡整理，阶段性需求或助推反弹 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 23 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约日内高开低走，反弹不顺畅。现货市场价格窄幅波动，虽两日 期货有反弹迹象，但市场需求跟进不提供动能支撑。供应端，日产窄幅波动，本 周上游工厂检修计划多于复产计划，尿素日产预计继续上行。需求端，下游接货 力度不足，市场交投情绪并不受期货端口刺激，农需方面，预计下月将有逢低备 货情况。复合肥工厂拿货依旧不温不火，成品降价吸单，高价成交不畅，后续对 尿素需求增量有限。东北地区进入扫尾阶段，供给压制下，价格难有大幅提升空 间。本期库存累库幅度较大，映射下游需求传导不畅。整体来说，尿素需求阶段 性将有增加，盘面有反弹迹象，但上升空间有限，关注上方 1830 元/吨阻力位置。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1789 元/ ...