Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The price of the apple AP2601 contract in the futures market may continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the short term. This is supported by the scarcity of high - quality apple supply in the fundamental aspect and the strong bullish sentiment in the technical aspect [10][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On October 20, 2025, the apple AP2601 futures contract rose significantly, closing at 8,865 points, a 2.26% increase from the previous day. The trading volume was 159,727 lots, and the open interest was 142,886 lots, an increase of 14,247 lots from the previous trading day [2]. - **Variety Price**: The report presents the price data of multiple apple futures contracts (AP510 - AP605), including yesterday's settlement price, today's opening price, highest price, lowest price, today's closing price, today's settlement price, price changes, trading volume, open interest, and trading amount [6]. - **Related Market**: Apple options traded 31,546 lots in total on the day, with a total open interest of 32,404 lots, an increase of 3,392 lots. There were 26 lots exercised on the day [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The spot price of apples on the day was 7,500 yuan/ton, and the futures settlement price was 8,798 yuan/ton, resulting in a basis of - 1,298 yuan/ton [8]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed that there were 0 registered warehouse receipts on the day [9]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: Currently, late - maturing Fuji apples are gradually entering the market for trading, with high - quality fruits commanding premium prices. Good - quality apples are seeing stable to slightly higher prices. Traders in western regions such as Gansu and northern Shaanxi are actively ordering high - quality fruits, and the warehousing work in some production areas has begun [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily K - line chart, the apple futures formed a medium - sized positive line on the day, with a relatively long real body and closing higher than the previous trading day's closing price, indicating that the bullish force was dominant and driving the price up [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook Fundamentally, the coloring of apples in the western production areas is 10 days behind schedule, the bag - removing in Shandong is postponed by half a month, and the red apples are on the market 15 days later than last year. Fruit farmers in the production areas report that the amount of high - quality fruits has decreased by half, and the proportion of high - quality fruits has declined. The warehousing volume in Gansu is lower than last year, the effective inventory in Shandong is lower than last year, and although the warehousing volume in Shaanxi is large, the proportion of high - quality fruits is not high. The scarcity of high - quality supply provides strong support for prices. Technically, the market is bullish, and the moving averages are in a bullish arrangement. In the short term, the price of the AP2601 contract is likely to continue to be volatile and upward - trending [10][12].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a monthly report on apples, dated October 3, 2025, with the research period being September 2025 [1] Group 2: Core View - In September 2025, the apple futures market showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and the new - season late Fuji's opening price is expected to rise, but there are also supply and demand factors affecting the market [1][2][3] Group 3: Futures Market 3.1 Contract Price Analysis - The main apple futures contract ap2601 showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend in September, with a slightly upward - moving monthly operation center. The influencing factors of the apple market in September were relatively stable, including spot price fluctuations, weather changes in production areas, and the relative impact of other fruits [3] 3.2 Variety Market Analysis - The total open interest of apple futures was 111,461 lots, the trading volume was 1,883,035 lots, and the turnover was 156.5155 billion yuan. The report also provided detailed monthly market data for each apple futures contract [4][5] Group 4: Spot Market 4.1 Basis Data - The apple futures basis in September was generally negative, meaning the spot price was lower than the futures price [7] 4.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 0 [8] Group 5: Influencing Factors 5.1 Influencing Factor Analysis - Substitute fruits such as grapes and pomegranates had a partial impact on the apple market. The old - stock Fuji apples were not fully cleared, and the remaining inventory moved slowly. Market demand varied, with some merchants stocking up as needed before the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival. The cost of high - quality new apples remained high, and the export volume of new - season apples increased in August [8][9][10] 5.2 Technical Analysis - In September, the technical side of apple futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Short - term moving averages supported the price, and the price fluctuated within a relatively stable range. The moving averages formed a long - position arrangement, with the long - position power on the disk slightly dominant [11] Group 6: Market Outlook - On the supply side, the western apple - producing areas were affected by adverse weather during the flowering period, resulting in smaller single - fruit sizes and potentially lower high - quality fruit rates. The remaining cold - storage apples in the country were at a five - year low. New - season apples in the west had uneven fruit sizes, and the impact of post - bag - removal weather on coloring and appearance needed attention. On the demand side, the market was boosted to a limited extent by the Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals. After the festivals, the apple market was still affected by the sales of seasonal fruits, and the market arrival volume was low. Technically, although the apple futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend in September, with the approaching large - scale listing of new - season apples, the ap2601 contract price may face upward pressure and is expected to show a high - level volatile trend [13]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In September 2025, the price of Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend. The average spot price dropped from 22,060 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 21,770 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The core driving factors were the continuous realization of the logic of loose domestic supply, the increase in zinc ore imports and high refined zinc production, coupled with the under - performance of the peak demand season, which led to prominent pressure on social inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the continuous destocking of LME inventory supported the strength of LME zinc, intensifying the differentiation between the domestic and foreign markets, and putting pressure on Shanghai Zinc. In the short term, the pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and policy changes [2] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - In September, Shanghai Zinc futures showed a volatile and weak trend. The monthly closing price of the main contract (ZN2510.SHF) dropped from 22,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 21,800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.8%, and the settlement price also decreased by 1.7%. The price trend can be divided into three stages: narrow - range consolidation supported by macro - sentiment at the beginning of the month, a decline after the realization of the logic of loose supply and demand in the middle of the month, and a slight stabilization at the end of the month supported by pre - holiday restocking and low LME inventory. The core driving factors were the domestic supply surplus (increase in zinc ore imports and high smelting output), the under - performance of the peak demand season, and the pressure on social inventory accumulation, which led to the downward shift of the price center. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and low overseas inventory only provided periodic support [3] 1.2 Variety Market - Among the 13 contracts of Shanghai Zinc futures, the prices of each contract varied in September. The Shanghai Zinc 2509 contract rose, while the rest of the contracts declined, with fluctuations ranging from - 1000 points to 100 points. The position volume was 240,189 lots, an increase of 16,498 lots. The trading volume was about 4.418 million lots, an increase of about 810,000 lots compared with the previous month. Overall, the market trading was relatively active [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Price - In September, the spot price of Shanghai Zinc showed a trend of "stable at first, then weak, and a slight recovery at the end of the month". At the beginning of the month, boosted by the macro - interest rate cut expectation, the price oscillated in the range of 22,000 - 22,200 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, as the continuous accumulation of domestic social inventory and the weakness of the peak demand season were realized, the price gradually dropped to around 21,700 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the pre - holiday restocking of some downstream enterprises drove a slight rebound in the spot price, but it failed to reverse the monthly downward trend [8] 2.2 Basis Data - According to Wind statistics, the basis of Shanghai Zinc was mostly negative in September, with the spot at a discount to the futures. At the end of the month, the basis narrowed to + 5 yuan/ton (September 30), mainly driven by pre - holiday restocking. However, the average basis rate for the whole month was - 0.35%, indicating that the pattern of oversupply in the spot market remained unchanged [9] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry Information - Supply side: The looseness of zinc ore was transmitted to refined zinc, and the output remained at a high level. The import of zinc ore increased significantly. From January to August, the import volume of domestic zinc concentrates increased by 43.06% year - on - year, and the import processing fee (TC) rebounded to 92.5 US dollars/dry ton. The looseness at the ore end supported the production at the smelting end. The output of refined zinc increased significantly. From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic refined zinc increased by more than 9% year - on - year, and the scheduled production in September was close to 610,000 tons, with continuous release of supply pressure. Smelters were actively operating. The processing fee was at a two - year high, and with the supplement of by - product profits, smelters had strong production enthusiasm, and only some enterprises slightly reduced production due to maintenance [10] - Demand side: The "Golden September" peak season was weak, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The recovery of the operating rate of the processing industry was limited. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased slightly month - on - month, but were all lower than the same period last year, and the PMI was still below the boom - bust line, so enterprises' procurement sentiment was cautious. Terminal demand was weak. Infrastructure growth was limited, real estate sales were sluggish, automobile sales declined year - on - year, and the export of galvanized sheets was restricted. The consumption boost in the peak season was less than expected. The pre - holiday restocking effect was short - lived. At the end of the month, some downstream enterprises stocked up for the National Day, and the spot trading improved slightly, but it failed to reverse the overall weak situation [11][12] 4. Market Outlook - The increase in zinc ore imports and high refined zinc production, coupled with the under - performance of the peak demand season, led to prominent pressure on social inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, the continuous destocking of LME inventory supported the strength of LME zinc, intensifying the differentiation between the domestic and foreign markets, and putting pressure on Shanghai Zinc. In the short term, the pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change, and the price may maintain a range - bound oscillation. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm and policy changes [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 25, the manganese silicon futures main contract closed higher. The fundamentals show characteristics of "high supply and weak demand." Steel mills' pre - holiday stockpiling supports short - term demand, but terminal building material demand is weak, inventory pressure remains, and with the resumption of production in Guizhou, the risk of medium - to - long - term supply surplus intensifies. Technically, the price is oscillating in the range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton, with balanced long - and short - term forces. In the short term, it lacks an independent driver and is likely to follow the fluctuations of the black sector. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings in October and the demand callback risk after steel mills finish restocking [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 25, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The daily session opened at 5,916 yuan/ton, with a high of 5,954 yuan/ton, a low of 5,856 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5,938 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 219,803 lots, and the open interest was 332,429 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 futures contracts showed a normal market pattern of lower near - term and higher far - term prices. The open interest of the variety was 510,416 lots, a decrease of 18,713 lots from the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 1,344 lots [2]. - **Related Market**: On September 25, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main contract was 27,339 contracts, and that of put options was 23,120 contracts, with an open interest PCR of 0.846 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: On September 25, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 88 yuan/ton, which widened compared with the previous day, mainly because the increase in the spot price on that day was less than that of the futures price [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 25, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 59,475, a decrease of 539 from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: On September 25, the manganese ore market oscillated. In Tianjin Port, semi - carbonate was traded at 34 - 34.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron ore was about 30 yuan/ton degree, and Gabonese ore was about 40 yuan/ton degree. Low - price supplies were hard to find. The price of Australian lump ore was in the range of 39.5 - 41.5 yuan/ton degree, with firm quotes and pending transactions. In Qinzhou Port, the spot price of manganese ore was consolidating. The available inventory of semi - carbonate was low, with a price around 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian seeds at 35.5 - 36 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump ore at 39 - 41 yuan/ton degree, and South African high - iron ore at 30.5 yuan/ton degree [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: On September 25, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, indicating short - term support below but also obvious upward resistance. The price has been running in the range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton in the past half - month, currently at the central position, and a strong driver is needed for a breakthrough [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - During the week from September 1st to 5th, 2025, the price of industrial silicon in the futures market fluctuated upward, while the spot market remained stable. The main contract of industrial silicon futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with relatively sharp fluctuations and a significant increase in trading volume, indicating intense competition between long and short positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: The price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated during the week, showing a pattern of two down - days and three up - days. By the end of the week, the main contract (si2511) rose 450 points, closing at 8,820 points, with a maximum of 8,920 points and a minimum of 8,270 points. The trading volume was 1,916,401 lots, which was higher than the average level in the past period, in line with the characteristics of an adjustment and correction market [3]. - **Variety Market**: Among the industrial silicon futures contracts, the price of the industrial silicon (si2608) contract was the highest and remained relatively stable, while the price of the industrial silicon (si2509) contract was the lowest [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Market Conditions**: The spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly this week. As of September 5th, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained at 11,800 yuan/ton, the price of East China non - oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained at 11,500 yuan/ton, the price of East China 421 silicon remained at 12,200 yuan/ton, the price of East China organic silicon - used 421 silicon remained at 12,800 yuan/ton, the price of 99 silicon (Xinjiang) remained at 10,950 yuan/ton, and the price difference between 421 and 553 was 400 yuan/ton [7]. - **Basis Data**: The spot price in East China remained stable during the week, while the futures price rose slightly. The basis was positive and narrowed, with a basis of 130 yuan/ton during the week [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Latest News**: On the supply side, the production of industrial silicon is expected to decline in September. Although the current silicon price has fallen below the lowest cost line in the southwestern region during the wet season, some enterprises have locked in the selling price through selling hedging, so there is no obvious production cut for the time being. However, after the delivery of hedging orders, silicon factories will cut production due to the inability to accept long - term low prices. In terms of regions, although there is a resumption of production in Xinjiang, the overall resumption rhythm and capacity release are limited; Yunnan and Sichuan are struggling near the cost line, and production enthusiasm is affected [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: Currently, the cumulative main buying of industrial silicon is greater than the main selling, and the main buying has been strong for two consecutive days, indicating strong buyer sentiment. However, from a longer - term and overall supply - demand perspective, industrial silicon still faces significant upward pressure. Whether this rebound can continue depends on changes in the fundamentals and the subsequent sustainability of funds [11]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Overall, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable this week without significant fluctuations. However, market feedback shows that the spot trading activity is not high, and traders and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, mainly for rigid demand, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main PVC futures price fluctuated in the range of 4807 - 4956. As of the close on July 4, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 4906 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from last week's close [9]. - On the supply side, affected by the shutdown and maintenance of plants such as Ningxia Yinglite and Inner Mongolia Sanlian this week, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.65% month - on - month to 77.44%. On the demand side, the downstream PVC operating rate increased by 0.1% month - on - month to 42.88%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 0.94% month - on - month to 39.5%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month to 34.75%. In terms of inventory, this week's PP commercial inventory decreased by 0.09% month - on - month to 78.51 tons, at a neutral level in the same period of the past three years. In terms of cost, this week, the national average cost of the calcium carbide method increased slightly to 5109 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of the ethylene method increased to 5647 yuan/ton. The losses of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened to varying degrees [9]. - In July, domestic PVC plants will have centralized maintenance. Next week, plants such as Shanxi Yushe, Yanhu Haina, and Ordos have shutdown plans, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will maintain a downward trend. In July, plants such as Wanhua, Bohua, and Tianjin Dagu are planned to be put into production. The policy to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity is expected to relieve the future supply pressure. It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification has been postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July. In terms of cost, the impact of power rationing in Inner Mongolia has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed production; the United States has revoked the restrictions on ethane exports to China, which may drive down the cost of the ethylene method in the future. In the short term, the expectation of production capacity withdrawal and real - estate support policies gives room for the premium of the main futures contract, but the contract price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand and cost in the real market. It is expected that V2509 will fluctuate weakly next week. Technically, pay attention to the support around 4810 and the resistance around 4960 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The main PVC futures price fluctuated in the range of 4807 - 4956. The V2509 contract closed at 4906 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from last week [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side capacity utilization decreased by 0.65% to 77.44%; demand - side downstream operating rate increased by 0.1% to 42.88%, with pipe operating rate up 0.94% and profile operating rate down 0.25%. PP commercial inventory decreased by 0.09% to 78.51 tons. Calcium carbide method cost rose to 5109 yuan/ton, and ethylene method cost rose to 5647 yuan/ton, with losses deepening [9]. - Outlook: July has centralized plant maintenance, capacity utilization is expected to decline. New plant launches and policy - driven capacity withdrawal may relieve supply pressure. It's the off - season for domestic demand, and Indian demand is affected by the rainy season. Cost may decline. The futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The V2509 contract fluctuated. The registered warehouse receipt volume increased slightly. The main contract's open interest fluctuated slightly, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened slightly [10][13]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - CFR China quoted at 700 dollars (- 20); Southeast Asia quoted at 660 dollars (- 20); India quoted at 720 dollars (- 20). The spot prices of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC in East China fluctuated slightly. The basis was slightly weak, and the futures contract was at a premium [20][25][28]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - The price of semi - coke remained stable, and calcium carbide was slightly stronger. The semi - coke operating rate was 39.59%, and the calcium carbide operating rate was 63.86%. The VCM CIF intermediate price was 520 dollars/ton, and the EDC international price was 184 dollars/ton [36][41][45]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in June was 1.9913 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [49][53]. - Demand: The pipe operating rate increased week - on - week, and the profile operating rate decreased. The export of PVC floor products in May decreased month - on - month. In May, imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [57][61][64]. - Inventory: PVC social inventory changed from destocking to stocking [69]. - Cost: The cost of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method increased week - on - week [73]. - Profit: The losses of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened [80]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 12.99%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 21.7% [86].

Report Overview - Research variety: Caustic soda [1] - Report cycle: Weekly - Date of report: June 23, 2025 - Researcher: He Ning Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda futures main - contract price continued to decline in a volatile manner this week, and the spot price also continued to fall. High - price transactions of caustic soda are difficult at present. The main downstream maintains a high purchase volume, while non - aluminum downstream remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the futures market may continue to operate weakly in the short term [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the caustic soda futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate. As of the reporting date, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The highest price was [not given], the lowest was [not given], the open interest was [not given] million lots, a decrease of [not given] lots from last week, and the trading volume was [not given] million lots, an increase of [not given] million lots from last week. The futures price maintained a narrow - range volatile downward pattern, with the decline rate decreasing compared to last week. Currently, the caustic soda futures price is at a relatively low level in history, and the number of registered warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 0 [2][11] 3.2 Spot Market - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase from last week. Some enterprises in Central China, North China, and Northeast China temporarily reduced production or were under maintenance, with load decreasing; equipment in Northwest and East China resumed operation after maintenance, with load increasing [5] - Inventory: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above across the country was 36.65 million tons, a decrease of 9.57% from last week [5] - Price: The main downstream alumina plants continuously lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda this week, other enterprises' transaction prices continued to follow the decline, the export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and the new order signing situation was poor, resulting in enterprises selling at reduced prices. The transaction price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.90% from last week; in Jiangsu, it was [not clear], a decrease of 1.04% [5][11] 3.3 Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - Spot market: The main downstream alumina plants continuously lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda, other enterprises' transaction prices continued to follow the decline, the export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and new order signing was poor, forcing enterprises to cut prices [11] - Futures market: The caustic soda futures price maintained a narrow - range volatile downward pattern, with the decline rate decreasing compared to last week. The current price is at a relatively low level in history, and the number of registered warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 0 [11] 3.4 Associated Varieties Analysis - Upstream raw materials: The price of raw salt remained stable, and the coal price continued to decline in a volatile manner, causing the cost side to continue to decline [11] - Downstream: The operating rate of alumina increased slightly this week, but the overall incremental demand for caustic soda was limited. Non - aluminum downstream demand still showed no obvious increase, and the procurement of caustic soda was mainly for rigid demand [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core View of the Report - Urea demand will increase periodically, and the futures price shows signs of a rebound, but the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 1,830 yuan/ton [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures main contract opened high and closed low, and the rebound was not smooth. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. Although the futures showed signs of a rebound in the past two days, the market demand did not provide kinetic energy support. The daily output of urea fluctuated slightly, and it was expected to continue to rise this week. The downstream purchasing power was insufficient, and the market trading sentiment was not stimulated by the futures. Agricultural demand was expected to see bargain - hunting purchases next month. The demand for urea from compound fertilizer factories was limited, and the price in the Northeast region had limited room for a significant increase under supply pressure. The inventory accumulation was large this period, indicating poor downstream demand transmission [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,789 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, and closed slightly lower at 1,762 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.56%. The daily trading volume decreased, and the open interest was 212,129 lots (+15,474 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 8,487 lots, and short positions increased by 17,260 lots. On April 23, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,163, a decrease of 97 compared with the previous trading day [2] Spot - The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The mainstream ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,770 to 1,810 yuan/ton. The price of small - particle urea in Shanxi was 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton, and the quote of large - particle urea was 1,720 - 1,750 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes were stable today, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 78 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On April 23, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 199,600 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons compared with yesterday, and the operating rate was 85.57% [9] Enterprise Inventory Data - As of April 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.065 million tons, an increase of 158,800 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 17.52%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.12 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of April 18, 2025, the V2509 contract of PVC closed at 5,032 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous week's close. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, the V2509 contract oscillated within a range. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 4,950 yuan/ton [9]. - In April - May, the PVC industry has intensive maintenance. Next week, the restart of a 800,000 - tonne device of Bohua may drive the capacity utilization rate to rise month - on - month. Downstream PVC floor enterprises are on hold due to tariff impacts, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate market. Regarding costs, the decline of calcium carbide prices is expected to slow down, and ethylene prices are expected to be weakly sorted [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Price**: The PVC main contract shifted to the 09 contract. As of April 18, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 5,032 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous week [9]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: This week, some devices restarted and some underwent maintenance. The overall capacity utilization rate increased by 0.68% month - on - month to 77.35%. Among them, the calcium carbide method capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13% month - on - month to 79.35%, and the ethylene method capacity utilization rate increased by 2.11% month - on - month to 72.09% [9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the PVC pipe production rate increased by 0.31% month - on - month to 50.31%, and the PVC profile production rate decreased by 0.85% month - on - month to 40.00%. As of April 17, PVC social inventory decreased by 3.74% month - on - month to 725,000 tonnes, maintaining a downward trend [9]. - **Cost**: This week, calcium carbide and ethylene prices fell. The average cost of the national calcium carbide method decreased by 4.05% month - on - month to 5,265 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the national ethylene method decreased by 1.35% month - on - month to 5,631 yuan/ton [9]. - **Outlook**: In April - May, the PVC industry has intensive maintenance. Next week, the restart of a 800,000 - tonne device of Bohua may drive the capacity utilization rate to rise month - on - month. Downstream PVC floor enterprises are on hold due to tariff impacts, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate market. Regarding costs, the decline of calcium carbide prices is expected to slow down, and ethylene prices are expected to be weakly sorted. In the short term, the V2509 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 4,950 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price and Warehouse Receipts**: The V2509 contract oscillated within a range, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased week - on - week [10]. - **Position and Spread**: The main contract shifted, and the position volume increased. The 5 - 9 spread strengthened slightly [13]. - **Spot Market** - **Spot Price - Import and Export**: The CFR China quotation was 700 US dollars (+0); the Southeast Asian quotation was 670 US dollars (+0) [19]. - **Spot Price - Overseas**: The Indian quotation was 700 US dollars (+0) [24]. - **Spot Price - Domestic Calcium Carbide and Ethylene Methods**: This week, the price of calcium carbide method in East China increased week - on - week, and the price of ethylene method decreased week - on - week [27]. - **Basis**: The shift of the main contract led to a weakening of the main basis, and the futures market remained in a contango state [31]. 3.3. Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - **Blue Coke and Calcium Carbide**: This week, the blue coke price remained stable, and the calcium carbide price fell. The blue coke production rate was 51.61%, and the calcium carbide production rate was 60.80% [35][40]. - **EDC and VCM**: The VCM CIF intermediate price was 530 US dollars/ton, and the international EDC price was 206 US dollars/ton [44]. - **Industrial Chain** - **Supply - Capacity and Output**: In 2025, the PVC capacity growth rate is expected to be 10.77%. The output in March was 2.0691 million tonnes, increasing month - on - month [48]. - **Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: This week, the PVC capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month [52]. - **Demand - Downstream Production Rates**: Last week, the pipe production rate increased month - on - month, and the profile production rate decreased month - on - month [55]. - **Demand - PVC Floor Exports**: PVC floor exports decreased month - on - month in February [60]. - **Import and Export**: Exports increased month - on - month in February, and imports decreased month - on - month and remained at a low level [63]. - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory decreased month - on - month [68]. - **Cost**: The comprehensive cost of the calcium carbide method in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Henan decreased, and the cost of the ethylene method in North China decreased [72]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of the PVC calcium carbide method recovered, and the profit of the ethylene method in East China increased week - on - week [77]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 16.43%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.17%, and that of put options was 14.46% [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely. As of April 11, 2025, the V2505 contract closed at 4,930 yuan/ton, a 2.74% decrease from last week's close. The implementation of US tariffs on China affected PVC downstream product exports, leading to a significant price drop [9]. - On the supply side, several plants, including Tianjin Bohua, Anhui Huasu, and Ningxia Jinyuyuan, underwent maintenance this week. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.35% to 76.67%. Among them, the calcium carbide method capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.18% to 79.22%, and the ethylene method capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.79% to 69.98%. On the demand side, the spring promotion of pipe enterprises ended, and some floor enterprises stopped production and waited due to tariff impacts. The downstream product operating rate dropped significantly and was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. As of April 10, PVC social inventory decreased by 3.16% to 753,200 tons, maintaining a downward trend. In terms of costs, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene declined this week. The average cost of the national calcium carbide method decreased by 0.27% to 5,487 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the ethylene method decreased by 1.42% to 5,708 yuan/ton [9]. - In April, domestic PVC plants will undergo concentrated maintenance. Next week, Sichuan Jinlu and Xinjiang Zhongtai plants are planned to stop production, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Affected by tariff shocks, downstream enterprises will mainly wait and see, and the product operating rate is expected to remain at a low level. In terms of costs, power restrictions in Inner Mongolia will affect calcium carbide supply, but the concentrated maintenance of calcium carbide downstream will cause the price to decline slightly. The supply of foreign ethylene is sufficient, and domestic demand is weak, so the price has room to decline. In the short term, V2505 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 4,800 below and resistance around 5,000 above [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Price**: V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely, closing at 4,930 yuan/ton on April 11, 2025, down 2.74% from last week [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side capacity utilization decreased; demand - side downstream product operating rate dropped; social inventory decreased; costs of calcium carbide and ethylene methods declined [9]. - **Outlook**: Capacity utilization is expected to continue to decline; downstream product operating rate to remain low; calcium carbide and ethylene prices may decline; V2505 to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Futures Price and Warehouse Receipts**: V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely, and the registered warehouse receipt volume increased week - on - week [10]. - **Position and Spread**: The net position of the main contract was short, the reduction of buy orders was less than that of sell orders, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthened slightly [15]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Spot Price - Import and Export**: CFR China quoted at $700 (+0); Southeast Asia quoted at $670 (+0) [22]. - **Spot Price - Overseas**: India quoted at $700 (+0); Northwest Europe quoted at $805 (+20); Houston quoted at $670 (-10) [26][30]. - **Spot Price - Domestic Calcium Carbide and Ethylene Methods**: The prices of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in East China declined this week [33]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened, and the futures market remained in a premium state [38]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide**: Lanthanum coke prices remained stable, and calcium carbide prices declined slightly. The operating rates of lanthanum coke and calcium carbide were 52.63% and 62.38% respectively [42][48]. - **EDC and VCM**: The CIF mid - price of VCM was $530/ton, and the international price of EDC was $226/ton [51]. 3.5 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Capacity and Output**: PVC capacity continued to increase in 2024, and the output in March was 206,910 tons, up month - on - month [55]. - **Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [59]. - **Demand - Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of pipe enterprises increased week - on - week last week, and that of profile enterprises decreased week - on - week [62]. - **Demand - PVC Floor Export**: PVC floor exports decreased month - on - month in February [68]. - **Import and Export**: Exports increased month - on - month in February, and imports decreased month - on - month and remained at a low level [71]. - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory decreased week - on - week [76]. - **Cost**: The comprehensive costs of calcium carbide methods in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Henan increased, and the ethylene method cost in North China decreased [80]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of the PVC calcium carbide method decreased, and the profit of the East China ethylene method increased week - on - week [84]. 3.6 Options Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.08%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 29.91% [89].