1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main PVC futures price fluctuated in the range of 4807 - 4956. As of the close on July 4, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 4906 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from last week's close [9]. - On the supply side, affected by the shutdown and maintenance of plants such as Ningxia Yinglite and Inner Mongolia Sanlian this week, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.65% month - on - month to 77.44%. On the demand side, the downstream PVC operating rate increased by 0.1% month - on - month to 42.88%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 0.94% month - on - month to 39.5%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month to 34.75%. In terms of inventory, this week's PP commercial inventory decreased by 0.09% month - on - month to 78.51 tons, at a neutral level in the same period of the past three years. In terms of cost, this week, the national average cost of the calcium carbide method increased slightly to 5109 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of the ethylene method increased to 5647 yuan/ton. The losses of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened to varying degrees [9]. - In July, domestic PVC plants will have centralized maintenance. Next week, plants such as Shanxi Yushe, Yanhu Haina, and Ordos have shutdown plans, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will maintain a downward trend. In July, plants such as Wanhua, Bohua, and Tianjin Dagu are planned to be put into production. The policy to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity is expected to relieve the future supply pressure. It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification has been postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July. In terms of cost, the impact of power rationing in Inner Mongolia has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed production; the United States has revoked the restrictions on ethane exports to China, which may drive down the cost of the ethylene method in the future. In the short term, the expectation of production capacity withdrawal and real - estate support policies gives room for the premium of the main futures contract, but the contract price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand and cost in the real market. It is expected that V2509 will fluctuate weakly next week. Technically, pay attention to the support around 4810 and the resistance around 4960 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The main PVC futures price fluctuated in the range of 4807 - 4956. The V2509 contract closed at 4906 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from last week [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side capacity utilization decreased by 0.65% to 77.44%; demand - side downstream operating rate increased by 0.1% to 42.88%, with pipe operating rate up 0.94% and profile operating rate down 0.25%. PP commercial inventory decreased by 0.09% to 78.51 tons. Calcium carbide method cost rose to 5109 yuan/ton, and ethylene method cost rose to 5647 yuan/ton, with losses deepening [9]. - Outlook: July has centralized plant maintenance, capacity utilization is expected to decline. New plant launches and policy - driven capacity withdrawal may relieve supply pressure. It's the off - season for domestic demand, and Indian demand is affected by the rainy season. Cost may decline. The futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The V2509 contract fluctuated. The registered warehouse receipt volume increased slightly. The main contract's open interest fluctuated slightly, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened slightly [10][13]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - CFR China quoted at 700 dollars (- 20); Southeast Asia quoted at 660 dollars (- 20); India quoted at 720 dollars (- 20). The spot prices of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC in East China fluctuated slightly. The basis was slightly weak, and the futures contract was at a premium [20][25][28]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - The price of semi - coke remained stable, and calcium carbide was slightly stronger. The semi - coke operating rate was 39.59%, and the calcium carbide operating rate was 63.86%. The VCM CIF intermediate price was 520 dollars/ton, and the EDC international price was 184 dollars/ton [36][41][45]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in June was 1.9913 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [49][53]. - Demand: The pipe operating rate increased week - on - week, and the profile operating rate decreased. The export of PVC floor products in May decreased month - on - month. In May, imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [57][61][64]. - Inventory: PVC social inventory changed from destocking to stocking [69]. - Cost: The cost of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method increased week - on - week [73]. - Profit: The losses of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened [80]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 12.99%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 21.7% [86].

Report Overview - Research variety: Caustic soda [1] - Report cycle: Weekly - Date of report: June 23, 2025 - Researcher: He Ning Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda futures main - contract price continued to decline in a volatile manner this week, and the spot price also continued to fall. High - price transactions of caustic soda are difficult at present. The main downstream maintains a high purchase volume, while non - aluminum downstream remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the futures market may continue to operate weakly in the short term [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the caustic soda futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate. As of the reporting date, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The highest price was [not given], the lowest was [not given], the open interest was [not given] million lots, a decrease of [not given] lots from last week, and the trading volume was [not given] million lots, an increase of [not given] million lots from last week. The futures price maintained a narrow - range volatile downward pattern, with the decline rate decreasing compared to last week. Currently, the caustic soda futures price is at a relatively low level in history, and the number of registered warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 0 [2][11] 3.2 Spot Market - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase from last week. Some enterprises in Central China, North China, and Northeast China temporarily reduced production or were under maintenance, with load decreasing; equipment in Northwest and East China resumed operation after maintenance, with load increasing [5] - Inventory: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above across the country was 36.65 million tons, a decrease of 9.57% from last week [5] - Price: The main downstream alumina plants continuously lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda this week, other enterprises' transaction prices continued to follow the decline, the export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and the new order signing situation was poor, resulting in enterprises selling at reduced prices. The transaction price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.90% from last week; in Jiangsu, it was [not clear], a decrease of 1.04% [5][11] 3.3 Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - Spot market: The main downstream alumina plants continuously lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda, other enterprises' transaction prices continued to follow the decline, the export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and new order signing was poor, forcing enterprises to cut prices [11] - Futures market: The caustic soda futures price maintained a narrow - range volatile downward pattern, with the decline rate decreasing compared to last week. The current price is at a relatively low level in history, and the number of registered warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 0 [11] 3.4 Associated Varieties Analysis - Upstream raw materials: The price of raw salt remained stable, and the coal price continued to decline in a volatile manner, causing the cost side to continue to decline [11] - Downstream: The operating rate of alumina increased slightly this week, but the overall incremental demand for caustic soda was limited. Non - aluminum downstream demand still showed no obvious increase, and the procurement of caustic soda was mainly for rigid demand [11]

【冠通研究】 震荡整理，阶段性需求或助推反弹 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 23 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约日内高开低走，反弹不顺畅。现货市场价格窄幅波动，虽两日 期货有反弹迹象，但市场需求跟进不提供动能支撑。供应端，日产窄幅波动，本 周上游工厂检修计划多于复产计划，尿素日产预计继续上行。需求端，下游接货 力度不足，市场交投情绪并不受期货端口刺激，农需方面，预计下月将有逢低备 货情况。复合肥工厂拿货依旧不温不火，成品降价吸单，高价成交不畅，后续对 尿素需求增量有限。东北地区进入扫尾阶段，供给压制下，价格难有大幅提升空 间。本期库存累库幅度较大，映射下游需求传导不畅。整体来说，尿素需求阶段 性将有增加，盘面有反弹迹象，但上升空间有限，关注上方 1830 元/吨阻力位置。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1789 元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of April 18, 2025, the V2509 contract of PVC closed at 5,032 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous week's close. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, the V2509 contract oscillated within a range. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 4,950 yuan/ton [9]. - In April - May, the PVC industry has intensive maintenance. Next week, the restart of a 800,000 - tonne device of Bohua may drive the capacity utilization rate to rise month - on - month. Downstream PVC floor enterprises are on hold due to tariff impacts, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate market. Regarding costs, the decline of calcium carbide prices is expected to slow down, and ethylene prices are expected to be weakly sorted [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Price**: The PVC main contract shifted to the 09 contract. As of April 18, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 5,032 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous week [9]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: This week, some devices restarted and some underwent maintenance. The overall capacity utilization rate increased by 0.68% month - on - month to 77.35%. Among them, the calcium carbide method capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13% month - on - month to 79.35%, and the ethylene method capacity utilization rate increased by 2.11% month - on - month to 72.09% [9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the PVC pipe production rate increased by 0.31% month - on - month to 50.31%, and the PVC profile production rate decreased by 0.85% month - on - month to 40.00%. As of April 17, PVC social inventory decreased by 3.74% month - on - month to 725,000 tonnes, maintaining a downward trend [9]. - **Cost**: This week, calcium carbide and ethylene prices fell. The average cost of the national calcium carbide method decreased by 4.05% month - on - month to 5,265 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the national ethylene method decreased by 1.35% month - on - month to 5,631 yuan/ton [9]. - **Outlook**: In April - May, the PVC industry has intensive maintenance. Next week, the restart of a 800,000 - tonne device of Bohua may drive the capacity utilization rate to rise month - on - month. Downstream PVC floor enterprises are on hold due to tariff impacts, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate market. Regarding costs, the decline of calcium carbide prices is expected to slow down, and ethylene prices are expected to be weakly sorted. In the short term, the V2509 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 4,950 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price and Warehouse Receipts**: The V2509 contract oscillated within a range, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased week - on - week [10]. - **Position and Spread**: The main contract shifted, and the position volume increased. The 5 - 9 spread strengthened slightly [13]. - **Spot Market** - **Spot Price - Import and Export**: The CFR China quotation was 700 US dollars (+0); the Southeast Asian quotation was 670 US dollars (+0) [19]. - **Spot Price - Overseas**: The Indian quotation was 700 US dollars (+0) [24]. - **Spot Price - Domestic Calcium Carbide and Ethylene Methods**: This week, the price of calcium carbide method in East China increased week - on - week, and the price of ethylene method decreased week - on - week [27]. - **Basis**: The shift of the main contract led to a weakening of the main basis, and the futures market remained in a contango state [31]. 3.3. Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - **Blue Coke and Calcium Carbide**: This week, the blue coke price remained stable, and the calcium carbide price fell. The blue coke production rate was 51.61%, and the calcium carbide production rate was 60.80% [35][40]. - **EDC and VCM**: The VCM CIF intermediate price was 530 US dollars/ton, and the international EDC price was 206 US dollars/ton [44]. - **Industrial Chain** - **Supply - Capacity and Output**: In 2025, the PVC capacity growth rate is expected to be 10.77%. The output in March was 2.0691 million tonnes, increasing month - on - month [48]. - **Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: This week, the PVC capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month [52]. - **Demand - Downstream Production Rates**: Last week, the pipe production rate increased month - on - month, and the profile production rate decreased month - on - month [55]. - **Demand - PVC Floor Exports**: PVC floor exports decreased month - on - month in February [60]. - **Import and Export**: Exports increased month - on - month in February, and imports decreased month - on - month and remained at a low level [63]. - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory decreased month - on - month [68]. - **Cost**: The comprehensive cost of the calcium carbide method in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Henan decreased, and the cost of the ethylene method in North China decreased [72]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of the PVC calcium carbide method recovered, and the profit of the ethylene method in East China increased week - on - week [77]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 16.43%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.17%, and that of put options was 14.46% [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely. As of April 11, 2025, the V2505 contract closed at 4,930 yuan/ton, a 2.74% decrease from last week's close. The implementation of US tariffs on China affected PVC downstream product exports, leading to a significant price drop [9]. - On the supply side, several plants, including Tianjin Bohua, Anhui Huasu, and Ningxia Jinyuyuan, underwent maintenance this week. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.35% to 76.67%. Among them, the calcium carbide method capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.18% to 79.22%, and the ethylene method capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.79% to 69.98%. On the demand side, the spring promotion of pipe enterprises ended, and some floor enterprises stopped production and waited due to tariff impacts. The downstream product operating rate dropped significantly and was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. As of April 10, PVC social inventory decreased by 3.16% to 753,200 tons, maintaining a downward trend. In terms of costs, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene declined this week. The average cost of the national calcium carbide method decreased by 0.27% to 5,487 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the ethylene method decreased by 1.42% to 5,708 yuan/ton [9]. - In April, domestic PVC plants will undergo concentrated maintenance. Next week, Sichuan Jinlu and Xinjiang Zhongtai plants are planned to stop production, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Affected by tariff shocks, downstream enterprises will mainly wait and see, and the product operating rate is expected to remain at a low level. In terms of costs, power restrictions in Inner Mongolia will affect calcium carbide supply, but the concentrated maintenance of calcium carbide downstream will cause the price to decline slightly. The supply of foreign ethylene is sufficient, and domestic demand is weak, so the price has room to decline. In the short term, V2505 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 4,800 below and resistance around 5,000 above [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Price**: V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely, closing at 4,930 yuan/ton on April 11, 2025, down 2.74% from last week [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side capacity utilization decreased; demand - side downstream product operating rate dropped; social inventory decreased; costs of calcium carbide and ethylene methods declined [9]. - **Outlook**: Capacity utilization is expected to continue to decline; downstream product operating rate to remain low; calcium carbide and ethylene prices may decline; V2505 to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Futures Price and Warehouse Receipts**: V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely, and the registered warehouse receipt volume increased week - on - week [10]. - **Position and Spread**: The net position of the main contract was short, the reduction of buy orders was less than that of sell orders, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthened slightly [15]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Spot Price - Import and Export**: CFR China quoted at $700 (+0); Southeast Asia quoted at $670 (+0) [22]. - **Spot Price - Overseas**: India quoted at $700 (+0); Northwest Europe quoted at $805 (+20); Houston quoted at $670 (-10) [26][30]. - **Spot Price - Domestic Calcium Carbide and Ethylene Methods**: The prices of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in East China declined this week [33]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened, and the futures market remained in a premium state [38]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide**: Lanthanum coke prices remained stable, and calcium carbide prices declined slightly. The operating rates of lanthanum coke and calcium carbide were 52.63% and 62.38% respectively [42][48]. - **EDC and VCM**: The CIF mid - price of VCM was $530/ton, and the international price of EDC was $226/ton [51]. 3.5 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Capacity and Output**: PVC capacity continued to increase in 2024, and the output in March was 206,910 tons, up month - on - month [55]. - **Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [59]. - **Demand - Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of pipe enterprises increased week - on - week last week, and that of profile enterprises decreased week - on - week [62]. - **Demand - PVC Floor Export**: PVC floor exports decreased month - on - month in February [68]. - **Import and Export**: Exports increased month - on - month in February, and imports decreased month - on - month and remained at a low level [71]. - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory decreased week - on - week [76]. - **Cost**: The comprehensive costs of calcium carbide methods in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Henan increased, and the ethylene method cost in North China decreased [80]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of the PVC calcium carbide method decreased, and the profit of the East China ethylene method increased week - on - week [84]. 3.6 Options Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.08%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 29.91% [89].