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巴比食品(605338):2025年三季报点评:Q3如期提速,向上势能延续
Huachuang Securities· 2025-11-02 12:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.75 CNY [1][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.356 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 201 million CNY, up 3.5% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 175 million CNY, showing a 19.4% increase [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 522 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.1% to 70 million CNY, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items increased by 25.5% to 74 million CNY [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1.671 billion CNY in 2024 to 2.282 billion CNY by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.5%, 12.6%, 10.4%, and 9.8% respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to fluctuate, with a forecast of 277 million CNY in 2024, decreasing to 270 million CNY in 2025, and then increasing to 338 million CNY by 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.15 CNY in 2024, slightly decreasing to 1.13 CNY in 2025, and then increasing to 1.41 CNY by 2027 [3]. Operational Highlights - The company’s store count increased by 249 to a total of 5,934 stores in Q3 2025, with the franchise business revenue growing by 17.7% year-on-year. The same-store revenue increased by 4.9% year-on-year, benefiting from takeout contributions and optimization of the single-store model [7]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was recorded at 29.6%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower pork prices and changes in channel structure [7]. - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in the coming year, with new store formats potentially serving as catalysts for upward momentum [7].