智通财经APP获悉，12月11日，中指研究院发布2025年中国住房租赁市场总结与展望。2025年，居民就业收入预期仍偏弱，叠加保 租房供应增加影响，1-11月重点50城住宅平均租金累计下跌3.04%。政策方面，中央定调优化保障性住房供给，保租房供给有望从 大规模筹建转向以需定建阶段，供应趋稳将有助于行业平稳运行，《住房租赁条例》实施引导住房租赁市场规范化发展。 培育市场化、专业化住房租赁企业政策导向下，住房租赁企业存在发展空间，租赁住房REITs扩围扩容有助于企业回笼资金、优化 资产结构，形成规模效应。同时，租户需求从"有房住"变为"住好房"，租赁住房供给要侧重品质优化。在此背景下，企业应把握政 策窗口期，参与保租房筹集，打造优质产品、规范运营，建立租户对品牌的信任度，同时把握公募REITs政策机遇，实现高质量发 展。 住宅租赁价格指数走势 （一）50城住宅租金：1-11月租金累计下跌3.04%，跌幅较上年同期扩大0.32个百分点 1. 整体租金：1-11月50城住宅租金累计跌幅扩大至3.04%，3月起租金连续下跌 2025年重点城市住宅平均租金延续下跌态势。受居民就业收入预期偏弱及保租房供应增加影响，今年以 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the need for a shift in China's real estate investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of aligning investments with actual market demand and improving quality and structure in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Real Estate Investment Trends - Real estate investment in China has significantly increased, with its share of GDP rising from 4% in 2000 to 13.7% in 2020, peaking at 14.5% in 2014, which is notably higher than the international average of 4%-7% [2]. - The high proportion of housing assets in urban residents' wealth, at 59.1%, indicates a significant imbalance in wealth distribution, with an average housing asset value of 1.878 million yuan per household [2]. - The leverage ratio of households is projected to reach 60% by 2025, a substantial increase from 17.6% in 2008, highlighting the growing financial risk in the sector [2]. Group 2: Policy Shifts and New Development Models - The 20th National Congress emphasized the need for a new real estate development model that focuses on high-quality development and integrates real estate into the social welfare framework [4][5]. - The new model aims to establish a housing supply system that meets both rigid and improvement housing demands, promoting a multi-entity supply and a dual rental-purchase housing system [5][12]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of new real estate has sharply declined since 2020, with new construction area dropping by approximately 78% from its peak, while the inventory of unsold properties remains high at over 750 million square meters [4][15]. - The government is focusing on enhancing the quality of housing, with initiatives to build "good houses" that are safe, comfortable, green, and smart, as part of the broader goal of improving living standards [10][17]. - The shift towards现房销售 (selling completed homes) is gaining traction, with the proportion of现房销售 increasing to 35% by 2025, reflecting a move to mitigate risks associated with pre-sales [18][20]. Group 4: Market Adjustments and Future Outlook - The market is witnessing a transition from a focus on demand control to optimizing supply structures and matching housing needs more precisely [9][19]. - The involvement of state-owned enterprises in market-driven land acquisition is expected to accelerate land storage and improve market stability [16]. - The current real estate landscape suggests that larger firms may gain a competitive edge due to their ability to manage financing and compliance more effectively, potentially leading to increased market concentration [21].

Core Viewpoint - Recent policies across various regions in China aim to stabilize the real estate market by addressing both supply and demand sides [1] Demand Side Summary - Optimization of housing provident fund policies is a key focus for many local real estate policies, with initiatives such as allowing fund withdrawals for property management fees and easing conditions for purchasing existing homes [2] - For instance, the Housing Provident Fund Management Committee in Taizhou announced that from 2025, contributors can withdraw funds to pay property management fees for their own homes [2] - Experts suggest that these measures lower the barriers to home buying and enhance buyers' payment capabilities, thereby stimulating market activity and improving supply-demand dynamics [2] Supply Side Summary - Local governments are actively promoting the acquisition of existing residential properties for use as affordable housing [3] - Hangzhou's Anju Group has initiated a public solicitation for suitable properties to increase acquisition efforts, with a focus on market-oriented and legal principles [3] - The acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing is expected to help reduce excess inventory in the market and stabilize new home prices [4] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The ongoing acquisition of existing homes is characterized by market-driven pricing, diverse uses, and refined standards, with purchase prices typically 30% to 50% lower than market rates [4] - As of now, Jingmen City has acquired 651 units for affordable housing, with additional properties being repurposed for market rental housing [4] - Experts predict that with the relaxation of housing provident fund policies and the implementation of affordable housing initiatives, the real estate market may establish a "market bottom" by the end of 2025, with a stable transaction environment in core cities and moderate inventory reduction in lower-tier cities [4][5] Policy Recommendations - Experts recommend further optimization of existing policies, such as allowing provident fund withdrawals for second-hand home purchases and expanding the variety of housing options available under housing vouchers [5] - There is a call for local governments to enhance the coverage of favorable policies to continuously tap into market demand [5]