中指研究院发布的最新报告显示，据测算，"十五五"时期全国城镇住房需求总量约为49.8亿平方米。其 中，新增城镇人口带来的住房需求继续支撑市场，改善性住房需求逐渐成为核心引擎，拆迁改造需求预 计保持一定规模。 展望未来五年，中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶认为，尽管新房市场总量峰值已过，但全国每年新 增城镇人口规模仍较为庞大，人口持续流入的高能级城市市场仍具潜力。同时，随着生活水平的不断提 高，居民改善性住房需求尚未得到满足。总体来看，刚需和改善性住房需求仍有空间，但城市与区域之 间分化或将进一步加剧。 曹晶晶指出，值得关注的是，2025年新房销售规模已降至中枢水平，但当前住房需求特征已由"刚需"驱 动转为"改善"主导。相比刚需购房者，改善性需求购房决策更易受收入预期和市场前景影响。短期房地 产销售量价仍有一定压力，而随着市场库存逐步回落，配合社会预期修复，"十五五"中后期房地产有望 逐步走出低迷阶段。 对应住房供给端，除市场化的商品住宅外，保障性住房及多套房业主出售非自住房产等也会消化部分增 量需求。综合按照70%—80%的转化比例，未来五年新建商品住宅销售面积年均预计为7亿—8亿平方 米。 报告指出，从住房 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the need for a shift in China's real estate investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of aligning investments with actual market demand and improving quality and structure in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Real Estate Investment Trends - Real estate investment in China has significantly increased, with its share of GDP rising from 4% in 2000 to 13.7% in 2020, peaking at 14.5% in 2014, which is notably higher than the international average of 4%-7% [2]. - The high proportion of housing assets in urban residents' wealth, at 59.1%, indicates a significant imbalance in wealth distribution, with an average housing asset value of 1.878 million yuan per household [2]. - The leverage ratio of households is projected to reach 60% by 2025, a substantial increase from 17.6% in 2008, highlighting the growing financial risk in the sector [2]. Group 2: Policy Shifts and New Development Models - The 20th National Congress emphasized the need for a new real estate development model that focuses on high-quality development and integrates real estate into the social welfare framework [4][5]. - The new model aims to establish a housing supply system that meets both rigid and improvement housing demands, promoting a multi-entity supply and a dual rental-purchase housing system [5][12]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of new real estate has sharply declined since 2020, with new construction area dropping by approximately 78% from its peak, while the inventory of unsold properties remains high at over 750 million square meters [4][15]. - The government is focusing on enhancing the quality of housing, with initiatives to build "good houses" that are safe, comfortable, green, and smart, as part of the broader goal of improving living standards [10][17]. - The shift towards现房销售 (selling completed homes) is gaining traction, with the proportion of现房销售 increasing to 35% by 2025, reflecting a move to mitigate risks associated with pre-sales [18][20]. Group 4: Market Adjustments and Future Outlook - The market is witnessing a transition from a focus on demand control to optimizing supply structures and matching housing needs more precisely [9][19]. - The involvement of state-owned enterprises in market-driven land acquisition is expected to accelerate land storage and improve market stability [16]. - The current real estate landscape suggests that larger firms may gain a competitive edge due to their ability to manage financing and compliance more effectively, potentially leading to increased market concentration [21].

上海克而瑞信息技术有限公司(以下简称"克而瑞")发布的最新数据显示，重点30城一二手房成交总量在 今年前10个月保持在2.74亿平方米的水平，与去年同期基本持平，市场底部特征逐步显现。 从各城市表现看，克而瑞监测数据显示，今年前10个月，深圳一二手房成交面积上涨12%；北京、上海 和广州前10个月一二手房成交同比增幅分别为7%、6%和2%。 在年内多轮稳楼市政策作用下，重点30城楼市成交整体出现止跌企稳迹象。 不少二线城市也较具韧性。克而瑞数据显示，合肥前10个月一二手房累计成交面积同比增长18%，增幅 排在30城首位；成都前10个月一二手房成交面积为2630万平方米，同比增长11%。重庆、西安、武汉、 杭州等核心二线城市成交量也均突破1000万平方米，且均实现同比正增长，成为支撑二线城市市场止跌 回稳的主力。 中指研究院监测数据显示，今年1月份至10月份，重点30城新房以及二手房成交总套数累计同比增长 0.6%，其中新房成交同比下降7.2%，二手房成交同比增长5.4%。 "从核心数据看，住房需求规模总体保持稳定，说明居民仍有较强的购房意愿。今年多城二手房活跃度 提升，显示出稳楼市政策的成效以及市场较强的韧性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the historical transformation of real estate from being a "urbanization engine" to a "foundation of livelihood," highlighting its significance in the context of improving people's living standards and quality of life [2][4][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a shift in real estate policy focus towards enhancing the quality of housing and ensuring it meets the needs of residents, rather than merely expanding supply [4][6]. - The new policy framework includes five specific tasks aimed at high-quality development, including the construction of "good houses" and the establishment of a comprehensive safety management system for housing [1][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The real estate market has entered a phase dominated by existing stock, with a shift in housing supply policies from scale-oriented to quality-oriented, addressing the diverse needs of residents [2][6][7]. - Future housing supply policies will be tailored to the capabilities of different cities, with core cities likely to relax restrictions gradually, starting with suburban areas [2][7]. Group 3: Quality and Standards - The introduction of "good houses" as a new standard reflects the need for housing that meets safety, comfort, and sustainability criteria, responding to the evolving demands of various demographic groups [12][13]. - The emphasis on improving housing quality and property services is expected to lead to a more diversified supply system and upgraded product standards [12][13]. Group 4: Lifecycle Management and Safety - The establishment of a comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing is a significant step towards ensuring long-term safety and quality, addressing residents' urgent needs [14][15]. - This system aims to integrate management from design to operation, promoting a proactive approach to housing safety and risk prevention [14][15]. Group 5: Future Market Trends - The real estate market is anticipated to experience a contraction in total demand and supply, with a notable increase in demand for improved housing, particularly in high-capacity cities [15]. - The market is transitioning to a phase where second-hand housing transactions surpass new housing sales, indicating a focus on urban renewal and the optimization of existing stock [15].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a divergence, with some core cities showing signs of recovery while the overall market faces declines in sales area and value [1][3][5] National Trends - From January to September 2025, the national new residential sales area decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, and sales value fell by 7.9% [1] - In September 2025, the sales area of new residential properties reached 85.31 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 48.5%, while sales value was 802.5 billion yuan, up 47.3% month-on-month [5] - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, while second and third-tier cities saw declines of 0.4% [3] City-Specific Insights - Wuhan, as a representative second-tier city, saw a year-on-year increase of 29.2% in new housing contract signings in the first three quarters of 2025 [7] - The residential market in Wuhan is characterized by a "quality stratification" phenomenon, with high-quality projects performing well [9][11] Policy Shifts - The 2025 policy framework emphasizes "high-quality development" in real estate, moving away from short-term demand stimulation [12][29] - The new policies focus on optimizing the supply of affordable housing while increasing the supply of improvement housing based on local needs [14] Market Dynamics - The market is undergoing a significant restructuring, with a shift from scale expansion to quality enhancement, particularly in the demand for improvement housing [17][19] - The trend of "daylight plates" (properties that sell out quickly) is emerging, driven by quality and service differentiation [11][21] Long-Term Challenges - Despite signs of stabilization, the market faces long-term structural challenges, including high unsold inventory and changing demographic needs [23][24] - The industry is expected to see a continued decline in sales volume, with a projected annual decrease of single digits [25][26] Competitive Landscape - The differentiation among real estate companies is intensifying, with leading firms focusing on acquiring land and improving sales through quality projects [27] - The market is shifting from a focus on quantity to quality, with an emphasis on residential quality becoming the main theme of the industry [29]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recovery of China's real estate market is evident in core cities, but a differentiated pattern will continue to persist [1][7] - The overall market remains in a critical phase of "stabilizing after a decline," with ongoing policy support necessary for sustained recovery [1][7] Market Supply and Demand - From January to August 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing reached 570 million square meters, with a sales amount of 5.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline that has narrowed compared to last year, although the decline has expanded since the second quarter [2][15] - Existing home sales have outperformed new homes, with existing home sales area reaching 200 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, reflecting a growing preference for delivery certainty among buyers [2][15] - In key cities, the transaction volume of new homes showed a slight year-on-year decline in the first three quarters, but a recovery was noted in September due to increased supply [2][16] Price Trends - New home prices in 100 cities increased by 1.54% from January to August, while second-hand home prices fell by 5.08%, indicating a divergence in price trends between new and second-hand homes [4][21][22] - The average price of new homes in August was 16,910 yuan per square meter, while the average price of second-hand homes was 13,481 yuan per square meter, marking a continuous decline for 40 months [4][21][22] Land Market Dynamics - The land market exhibited extreme differentiation, with residential land transfer fees in 300 cities increasing by approximately 13% year-on-year, while the area sold decreased by 8.5% [5][23] - Core cities are seeing a concentration of land acquisition, with the top 20 cities accounting for 61% of the national land transfer fees, reflecting a focus on high-quality land in major urban areas [5][25] Development Investment - From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment amounted to 6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, indicating ongoing pressure on the development side [6][14] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its differentiated pattern, with core cities benefiting from new quality land entering the market, while other cities will focus on inventory reduction [7][13] - Policy measures are anticipated to strengthen in the fourth quarter, with a focus on stabilizing the market and promoting reasonable housing demand [7][12]

Core Insights - The report by JLL indicates that the demand for improvement housing in Beijing's real estate market is expected to further increase [1][2] - The office market in Beijing continues to show weak incremental demand, maintaining a tenant-friendly environment [1] - The investment market is still dominated by domestic buyers, focusing on retail properties, long-term rental apartments, and industrial parks [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The high-end residential market is experiencing a boost in sentiment due to favorable policies, with improvement demand becoming the market's main driver [1][2] - The office market is entering a new normal, with the breaking down of regional rent barriers enhancing cross-regional liquidity [1] - After a supply peak in Q2, the luxury apartment market in Beijing has stabilized in Q3, with new launches maintaining a good sales pace [1] Group 2: Pricing and Supply - The threshold for purchasing high-quality housing continues to decrease, leading to an increase in improvement demand [2] - The second-hand high-end residential market has seen a rise in listings, with prices generally adjusting downward [2] - Developers are launching discount promotions to accelerate sales during this policy window [2]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Municipal Planning and Natural Resources Bureau has released guidelines to promote the quality improvement of residential properties, indicating a more regulated approach to the construction of "good houses" in the city [1] - Several new first-tier cities, including Hefei, Chongqing, Chengdu, Nanjing, Zhuhai, and Foshan, are studying new real estate policies to stimulate demand for improved housing and will introduce supportive measures for home purchases [1] - Since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to stabilize both the real estate and stock markets, which is crucial for boosting social expectations and facilitating domestic demand circulation amid external uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The central government has frequently emphasized the importance of building good houses and high-quality housing this year, suggesting that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [3] - Huayuan Securities maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, anticipating a favorable environment for high-quality housing development [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a low valuation for the real estate sector, recommending to accumulate real estate stocks on dips [5]. Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing downward pressure on prices, with new home prices in 70 cities showing negative month-on-month changes for 27 consecutive months, and second-hand home prices for 28 consecutive months [4][12]. - Recent policies in major cities aim to stimulate demand for improved housing, indicating potential for recovery in the market [4][12]. - The report highlights that the basic market conditions are expected to gradually improve due to the effects of previous policies and the upcoming demand season [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly change of -0.2%, ranking 11th among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector dropped by -3.3%, also ranking 11th [2]. - The average premium rate for land transactions remains low at 2%, with a significant year-on-year decrease in land transaction volume [2][27]. New Home Sales - In the week of September 20-26, 47 cities recorded new home sales of 380 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 25% but a year-on-year decrease of 4% [3][32]. - Sales in first-tier cities increased by 1% week-on-week and 15% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a 41% week-on-week increase [3][32]. Second-Hand Home Sales - The report indicates that 22 cities sold 243 million square meters of second-hand homes, with a week-on-week increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 12% [40]. - First-tier cities experienced a 3% decrease week-on-week but a 24% increase year-on-year in second-hand home sales [40]. Policy Developments - New policies in cities like Shanghai aim to enhance housing quality and stimulate demand for improved housing [5][14]. - The focus of future policies will likely be on stimulating demand for improved housing, optimizing public fund policies, and revitalizing existing properties and land [4][12]. Key Companies - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amounts are China Overseas Land & Investment, Greentown China, Poly Developments, Jianfa Group, and Binjiang Group, with acquisition amounts of 55.1 billion, 54.1 billion, 44 billion, 40 billion, and 34.7 billion respectively [27][28].

Group 1: Currency and Economic Trends - The RMB has shown a gradual appreciation against the USD since July, with signs of accelerated upward movement expected in the short term [1] - On August 28, both onshore and offshore RMB quickly appreciated against the USD, breaking through multiple key levels, indicating a potential convergence towards the central parity [1] - Future movements in the RMB exchange rate will depend on factors such as "carry trade" reversals and the central parity's guidance [1] Group 2: Housing and Related Industries - Improvement-driven housing demand is expected to significantly boost consumption across various sectors, including home appliances, furniture, textiles, and electronics [2] - The construction and usage of housing will generate substantial digital, electronic, and informational demands, leading to a chain reaction of consumption [2] Group 3: Cultural and Tourism Insights - The importance of cultural assets in cities is emphasized, with a strong opposition to transforming tourist spots into mere "check-in" locations [3] - The competition among cities is viewed as a struggle for cultural narrative control, which is essential for future urban development [3] Group 4: Stock Market and Investment Outlook - The US stock market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, driven by breakthroughs in the AI sector and expectations of a soft landing for the US economy [4] - With the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the investment value of high-quality fixed income assets is gaining attention [4] - There is an upward revision of gold price expectations, highlighting its role in portfolio diversification and geopolitical risk hedging [4]