记者丨张敏 编辑丨吴抒颖 骆一帆 金珊 在当前的住房市场，改善性需求正在成为新动力。其中，改善性需求的释放，很大程度上取决于交易成本的降低和置换链条的打 通。今年两会期间，全国人大代表、58同城董事长兼CEO姚劲波提出促进高质量充分就业、家政更好服务"一老一小"、激活改善性 住房需求等三大类民生建议。其中，在激活改善性住房需求方面，共有三项具体内容。 "过去大家问'有没有房住'，现在问'房子好不好住'。"姚劲波说，根据调查，住房需求正从"面积导向"转向"品质导向"。 他指出，当前"卖旧买新"市场正处于政策强力驱动的关键阶段。可以通过降低入市门槛和交易成本，有效激活二手房市场的流动 性，从而打通新房与二手房的置换链条。 姚劲波 出席证 1694 姚劲波。受访者供图 具体而言，姚劲波提出三项建议。 第一，提高个税减免的幅度 。将新购住房的贷款利息纳入个人所得税专项扣除项目。扣除范围为纳税人本人或配偶在中国境内购房 的商业及公积金贷款利息；扣除标准为按照每月 3000 元的标准定额扣除；扣除期限最长不超过240个月。此举旨在降低购房者的贷 款压力，鼓励中高收入人群入市，提振改善性需求。 第二，建立"好房子"项目信息 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese real estate market has received multiple favorable policies at the beginning of 2026, including a reduction in the down payment for commercial properties and adjustments to mortgage rates, indicating a steady start for the market [1][4] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, down from previous requirements of 50% or higher, aiming to stimulate the commercial real estate market [1][2] - The extension of the tax refund policy for home sales is expected to stabilize market expectations and reduce costs for families looking to upgrade their housing, thereby promoting demand for improved housing [2][3] Group 2 - The reduction in mortgage rates for existing housing and some commercial loans is set to lower borrowing costs for homeowners, contributing to a more favorable market environment [4] - Local governments are also implementing supportive policies, such as increasing loan limits for families with multiple children and veterans, which further enhances the accessibility of housing finance [4] - Recent data indicates a gradual recovery in housing transactions in major cities, with a notable increase in the average price index for second-hand residential properties, suggesting a positive market outlook [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guiyang has officially launched a "trade-in" program for commodity housing to promote a stable and healthy real estate market, addressing residents' needs for improved housing and facilitating the circulation of both new and second-hand homes [1][2] Policy Background - The Guiyang real estate market is undergoing a critical transformation, shifting from a focus on availability to quality, with rising demands for living standards [2] - The local government aims to meet the public's demand for improved housing through the "trade-in" initiative, which is designed to streamline the housing exchange process and reduce costs [2] Key Measures - The "trade-in" program includes ten specific measures aimed at addressing common issues such as the difficulty of selling old homes and the high costs associated with buying new ones [3] - Real estate agencies must be properly registered and provide quality services, with a cap on service fees reduced to 2.5% of the old home's sale price [3] - Developers will offer exclusive direct sales services and a minimum 60-day "contract protection period" for potential buyers, allowing them to withdraw without penalty if their old home does not sell [3] Transaction Services - A "green channel" for transactions has been established to expedite procedures and assist with tax rebate applications [4] - The program ensures that old homes are verified for compliance before listing, and transaction funds are monitored by the Guiyang Real Estate Transaction Management Center to ensure security [4] Old Home Liquidation - The program adopts a market-oriented "sell old, buy new" model to facilitate the sale of old homes, enhancing service quality and reducing transaction costs [5] - The initiative includes measures to improve transaction efficiency and provide professional advice to match supply and demand [6] Participation Rules - Homeowners in Guiyang with valid property certificates can participate in the program, with specific procedures for selling old homes and purchasing new ones [7] - The process includes registration, selling the old home, selecting a new home, and completing the transaction, with flexibility for participants if their old home does not sell [7] Responsibility and Dispute Resolution - Participants, including developers and real estate agencies, must adhere to legal requirements and service standards, with penalties for non-compliance [8] - Disputes can be resolved through mediation by relevant industry associations or through legal channels if necessary [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the total urban housing demand in China is estimated to be approximately 4.98 billion square meters, driven by new urban population growth and improving housing needs [1] - The report highlights that the demand composition includes 1.61 billion square meters from the increase of approximately 36.5 million urban residents, 2.03 billion square meters from improved living standards, and 1.34 billion square meters from demolition and renovation needs over the next five years [1] - The expected annual average sales area of newly built commercial residential properties is projected to be between 700 million and 800 million square meters, based on a conversion rate of 70%-80% of the total demand [1] Group 2 - The outlook for the next five years suggests that while the peak of new housing market volume has passed, there remains significant potential in high-capacity cities due to ongoing urban population inflow and unmet improvement housing needs [2] - It is noted that by 2025, the new housing sales scale will have dropped to a central level, with the housing demand characteristics shifting from "just need" driven to "improvement" dominated [2] - Short-term pressures on real estate sales volume and prices are anticipated, but as market inventory gradually decreases and social expectations recover, the real estate sector is expected to gradually emerge from a low phase in the latter part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the need for a shift in China's real estate investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of aligning investments with actual market demand and improving quality and structure in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: Real Estate Investment Trends - Real estate investment in China has significantly increased, with its share of GDP rising from 4% in 2000 to 13.7% in 2020, peaking at 14.5% in 2014, which is notably higher than the international average of 4%-7% [2]. - The high proportion of housing assets in urban residents' wealth, at 59.1%, indicates a significant imbalance in wealth distribution, with an average housing asset value of 1.878 million yuan per household [2]. - The leverage ratio of households is projected to reach 60% by 2025, a substantial increase from 17.6% in 2008, highlighting the growing financial risk in the sector [2]. Group 2: Policy Shifts and New Development Models - The 20th National Congress emphasized the need for a new real estate development model that focuses on high-quality development and integrates real estate into the social welfare framework [4][5]. - The new model aims to establish a housing supply system that meets both rigid and improvement housing demands, promoting a multi-entity supply and a dual rental-purchase housing system [5][12]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of new real estate has sharply declined since 2020, with new construction area dropping by approximately 78% from its peak, while the inventory of unsold properties remains high at over 750 million square meters [4][15]. - The government is focusing on enhancing the quality of housing, with initiatives to build "good houses" that are safe, comfortable, green, and smart, as part of the broader goal of improving living standards [10][17]. - The shift towards现房销售 (selling completed homes) is gaining traction, with the proportion of现房销售 increasing to 35% by 2025, reflecting a move to mitigate risks associated with pre-sales [18][20]. Group 4: Market Adjustments and Future Outlook - The market is witnessing a transition from a focus on demand control to optimizing supply structures and matching housing needs more precisely [9][19]. - The involvement of state-owned enterprises in market-driven land acquisition is expected to accelerate land storage and improve market stability [16]. - The current real estate landscape suggests that larger firms may gain a competitive edge due to their ability to manage financing and compliance more effectively, potentially leading to increased market concentration [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the real estate market in 30 key cities has shown signs of stabilization due to multiple rounds of policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market, with transaction volumes for new and second-hand homes remaining at 274 million square meters in the first ten months of the year, roughly unchanged from the same period last year [1] - In terms of city performance, Shenzhen's transaction area for new and second-hand homes increased by 12% year-on-year, while Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou saw increases of 7%, 6%, and 2% respectively [1] - Several second-tier cities demonstrated resilience, with Hefei leading the 30 cities with an 18% year-on-year increase in transaction area, and Chengdu reporting a transaction area of 26.3 million square meters, up 11% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The overall housing demand remains stable, indicating a strong willingness among residents to purchase homes, with increased activity in the second-hand housing market reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2] - Looking ahead, the real estate industry is expected to face certain pressures in the short term, with a focus on stabilizing the market and removing unreasonable restrictions in housing consumption, alongside the acceleration of policies related to urban village redevelopment [2] - The improvement of standards and regulations for "good housing" construction is anticipated to stimulate the release of demand for upgraded housing through the supply of high-quality housing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the historical transformation of real estate from being a "urbanization engine" to a "foundation of livelihood," highlighting its significance in the context of improving people's living standards and quality of life [2][4][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Focus - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests a shift in real estate policy focus towards enhancing the quality of housing and ensuring it meets the needs of residents, rather than merely expanding supply [4][6]. - The new policy framework includes five specific tasks aimed at high-quality development, including the construction of "good houses" and the establishment of a comprehensive safety management system for housing [1][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The real estate market has entered a phase dominated by existing stock, with a shift in housing supply policies from scale-oriented to quality-oriented, addressing the diverse needs of residents [2][6][7]. - Future housing supply policies will be tailored to the capabilities of different cities, with core cities likely to relax restrictions gradually, starting with suburban areas [2][7]. Group 3: Quality and Standards - The introduction of "good houses" as a new standard reflects the need for housing that meets safety, comfort, and sustainability criteria, responding to the evolving demands of various demographic groups [12][13]. - The emphasis on improving housing quality and property services is expected to lead to a more diversified supply system and upgraded product standards [12][13]. Group 4: Lifecycle Management and Safety - The establishment of a comprehensive safety management system for the entire lifecycle of housing is a significant step towards ensuring long-term safety and quality, addressing residents' urgent needs [14][15]. - This system aims to integrate management from design to operation, promoting a proactive approach to housing safety and risk prevention [14][15]. Group 5: Future Market Trends - The real estate market is anticipated to experience a contraction in total demand and supply, with a notable increase in demand for improved housing, particularly in high-capacity cities [15]. - The market is transitioning to a phase where second-hand housing transactions surpass new housing sales, indicating a focus on urban renewal and the optimization of existing stock [15].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a divergence, with some core cities showing signs of recovery while the overall market faces declines in sales area and value [1][3][5] National Trends - From January to September 2025, the national new residential sales area decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, and sales value fell by 7.9% [1] - In September 2025, the sales area of new residential properties reached 85.31 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 48.5%, while sales value was 802.5 billion yuan, up 47.3% month-on-month [5] - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, while second and third-tier cities saw declines of 0.4% [3] City-Specific Insights - Wuhan, as a representative second-tier city, saw a year-on-year increase of 29.2% in new housing contract signings in the first three quarters of 2025 [7] - The residential market in Wuhan is characterized by a "quality stratification" phenomenon, with high-quality projects performing well [9][11] Policy Shifts - The 2025 policy framework emphasizes "high-quality development" in real estate, moving away from short-term demand stimulation [12][29] - The new policies focus on optimizing the supply of affordable housing while increasing the supply of improvement housing based on local needs [14] Market Dynamics - The market is undergoing a significant restructuring, with a shift from scale expansion to quality enhancement, particularly in the demand for improvement housing [17][19] - The trend of "daylight plates" (properties that sell out quickly) is emerging, driven by quality and service differentiation [11][21] Long-Term Challenges - Despite signs of stabilization, the market faces long-term structural challenges, including high unsold inventory and changing demographic needs [23][24] - The industry is expected to see a continued decline in sales volume, with a projected annual decrease of single digits [25][26] Competitive Landscape - The differentiation among real estate companies is intensifying, with leading firms focusing on acquiring land and improving sales through quality projects [27] - The market is shifting from a focus on quantity to quality, with an emphasis on residential quality becoming the main theme of the industry [29]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recovery of China's real estate market is evident in core cities, but a differentiated pattern will continue to persist [1][7] - The overall market remains in a critical phase of "stabilizing after a decline," with ongoing policy support necessary for sustained recovery [1][7] Market Supply and Demand - From January to August 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing reached 570 million square meters, with a sales amount of 5.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline that has narrowed compared to last year, although the decline has expanded since the second quarter [2][15] - Existing home sales have outperformed new homes, with existing home sales area reaching 200 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, reflecting a growing preference for delivery certainty among buyers [2][15] - In key cities, the transaction volume of new homes showed a slight year-on-year decline in the first three quarters, but a recovery was noted in September due to increased supply [2][16] Price Trends - New home prices in 100 cities increased by 1.54% from January to August, while second-hand home prices fell by 5.08%, indicating a divergence in price trends between new and second-hand homes [4][21][22] - The average price of new homes in August was 16,910 yuan per square meter, while the average price of second-hand homes was 13,481 yuan per square meter, marking a continuous decline for 40 months [4][21][22] Land Market Dynamics - The land market exhibited extreme differentiation, with residential land transfer fees in 300 cities increasing by approximately 13% year-on-year, while the area sold decreased by 8.5% [5][23] - Core cities are seeing a concentration of land acquisition, with the top 20 cities accounting for 61% of the national land transfer fees, reflecting a focus on high-quality land in major urban areas [5][25] Development Investment - From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment amounted to 6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, indicating ongoing pressure on the development side [6][14] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its differentiated pattern, with core cities benefiting from new quality land entering the market, while other cities will focus on inventory reduction [7][13] - Policy measures are anticipated to strengthen in the fourth quarter, with a focus on stabilizing the market and promoting reasonable housing demand [7][12]

Core Insights - The report by JLL indicates that the demand for improvement housing in Beijing's real estate market is expected to further increase [1][2] - The office market in Beijing continues to show weak incremental demand, maintaining a tenant-friendly environment [1] - The investment market is still dominated by domestic buyers, focusing on retail properties, long-term rental apartments, and industrial parks [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The high-end residential market is experiencing a boost in sentiment due to favorable policies, with improvement demand becoming the market's main driver [1][2] - The office market is entering a new normal, with the breaking down of regional rent barriers enhancing cross-regional liquidity [1] - After a supply peak in Q2, the luxury apartment market in Beijing has stabilized in Q3, with new launches maintaining a good sales pace [1] Group 2: Pricing and Supply - The threshold for purchasing high-quality housing continues to decrease, leading to an increase in improvement demand [2] - The second-hand high-end residential market has seen a rise in listings, with prices generally adjusting downward [2] - Developers are launching discount promotions to accelerate sales during this policy window [2]