创新转型提速，核心管线加速推进 公司发布2025 年三季报，单三季度收入3.65 亿元（-1.55%），归母净利润8359万元（+18.52%，含股权 激励费用)，扣非净利润6919 万元（+27.85%，含股权激励费用）。受益于新品放量以及仿制药研发投 入管控，利润端明显超出预期。 评论： 主业经营拐点确立，业绩有望重回高增长通道。由于第十批国采的冲击，苑东25H1 业绩承压，下半年 切换至低基数区间，集采压力逐步消化。当前，布托啡诺、纳布啡、奥沙西泮等核心精麻品种均已进入 快速放量通道，我们预计25Q3 的经营趋势将在后续延续且进一步加速。同时考虑到25Q4 及26H1 都是 明确的低基数，预计公司表观增速将十分可观。 制剂国际化实现突破。根据美国FDA 网站信息，纳洛酮鼻喷剂生产线以零缺陷通过了FDA 批准前的现 场核查和体外BE 核查，目前正在等待最终的现场检查报告，公司已分别与代理商签署美国、加拿大独 家商业化推广合作协议。 投资建议：公司精麻新品放量迅速，同时积极调整仿制药研发投入，尽管第十批国采冲击明显，但全年 预计公司依然可以解锁股权激励利润考核指标。我们调整盈利预测，预计2025-2027 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Heng Rui Medicine achieved significant revenue growth, with total revenue reaching 27.985 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.63%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 6.337 billion yuan, up 47.28% year-on-year, indicating a potential shift from "supply chain disruption" to "turnaround" [1][6]. Group 1: Performance Drivers - The strong performance in 2024 is primarily driven by substantial external licensing income, including 1.6 billion euros from Merck Healthcare and 1 billion USD from Kailera Therapeutics, leading to a sixfold increase in licensing income compared to 2023 [7][12]. - The company's core business net profit and non-recurring net profit would revert to around 4 billion yuan if excluding these non-recurring gains, indicating reliance on external partnerships for profit growth [7][15]. Group 2: Impact of Centralized Procurement - The generic drug business still contributes 50% to the company's revenue, and the impact of centralized procurement remains significant, with ongoing effects from previous rounds of procurement [3][4]. - The third and fifth rounds of centralized procurement led to substantial revenue declines in 2021, with sales dropping by 55% and 37% respectively for affected products [3][4]. - The seventh round of procurement also saw a 48% decline in sales for affected products, and the upcoming ninth round is expected to further impact revenue in 2025 [5][6]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Considerations - The current rolling P/E ratio of around 50 suggests that the company may need 2-3 years to digest this valuation, with expectations of net profit growth slowing to 15%-20% from 2025 to 2027 [17][18]. - The market is shifting focus from short-term profits to long-term innovation value, which may limit the short-term upside for Heng Rui Medicine, given its significant reliance on generic drugs [20].