固收专题报告 2025 年 08 月 04 日 长钱长投:企业年金的过去、现在与未来 中国养老金专题 投资要点: 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC: S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 联系人 马赫 mahe@huayuanstock.com 上长周期考核机制,弱化短期波动影响,提升权益资产配置至20%-30%,年均收益 或增至 6%-7%。三支柱整合:或推动不同支柱账户互通（如允许企业年金转入个人 养老金账户）,优化税负,增强长期的吸引力。未来十年,随着覆盖面或扩大、权 益配置优化和三支柱整合,企业年金有望使中小企业员工退休收入替代率提升,成 为应对老龄化挑战的关键支撑。 风险提示。经济增长超预期导致债市调整的风险;股市可能大幅走强,对债市情绪 A 有冲击;测算的收益可能与实际情况存在差异。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 A 规模持续扩张但覆盖广度不足,结构性矛盾突出。截至 25年 Q1,企业年金积累基 金规模达 3.73 万亿元,参与职工 3291 万人(较 2006 年末增长超 2 倍)。然而参 与率（企业年金参加职工/劳动年龄人口(15-64 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's pension system is undergoing profound changes due to the acceleration of population aging. The enterprise annuity, as an important part of the second - pillar pension, has significant development potential. In the future, through measures such as expanding coverage, optimizing equity allocation, and integrating the three - pillar pension system, it is expected to enhance the retirement income replacement rate of employees in small and medium - sized enterprises and become a key support in addressing the challenges of aging [1]. - The enterprise annuity is transitioning from "short - term investment of long - term funds" to "long - term investment of long - term funds". With the implementation of the "automatic enrollment + voluntary withdrawal" mechanism, the establishment of a long - term assessment mechanism, and the integration of the three - pillar pension system, the enterprise annuity's role in the pension system will be further strengthened [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Historical Evolution - **Non - marketization to Marketization**: From 1991 - 2004, it was the non - marketization operation stage, including the exploration period (1991 - 2000) and the pilot transformation period (2000 - 2004). After 2004, it entered the market operation stage, with the rapid development period from 2007 - 2016 and the mature deepening period from 2017 to the present. During this process, policy dividends continuously promoted scale expansion, but there were also deep - seated contradictions such as system design and investment performance fluctuations [8][9][10]. - **Enterprise Annuity Management Institutions**: The market shows characteristics of high concentration and professional division of labor. There are four types of management institutions, with different numbers and types of institutions in each category. The insurance - based institutions dominate the trustee market, and the public - offering fund companies play an important role in the investment management field [16]. - **Enterprise Annuity Plans and Pension Products**: There are single plans and collective plans. Single plans are suitable for large enterprises, while collective plans have advantages such as high efficiency and low cost. Pension products have gradually expanded their investment scope over the years [39][41][44]. 3.2 Current Situation of Enterprise Annuity - **Coverage and Regional Characteristics**: The number of participating employees in enterprise annuities is increasing, but the coverage rate has not improved significantly. The participation rate is far lower than that of OECD countries. In terms of regional distribution, central enterprises and economically developed regions dominate [45][50]. - **Investment Performance**: The overall performance of enterprise annuities has been growing steadily in the long - term. In the past three years (2022Q1 - 2025Q1), the cumulative return reached 7.46%. Asset allocation is significantly differentiated, with fixed - income products performing better in the past three years. The performance also varies between different plans and investment managers [55][65][71]. - **Different Investment Managers**: The market shows a trend of strengthening the leading position of top - tier institutions. The assessment mechanism is shifting towards long - term orientation. Different types of institutions have different investment capabilities in equity and fixed - income products [71][72]. - **Annuity Pension Products**: As of 2025Q1, there are 649 registered pension products and 573 actually operating products. The top three in terms of the number of actually operating products are common stock - type, hybrid, and common fixed - income products [75]. 3.3 Future Development of Enterprise Annuity - **Coverage Expansion**: The "automatic enrollment + voluntary withdrawal" mechanism may be promoted to reduce the participation threshold for small and medium - sized enterprises and expand the coverage [1][82]. - **Head - Concentration of Institutions**: The "Matthew effect" in the trustee and investment management markets may intensify, with insurance - based institutions continuing to dominate, and the proportion of large state - owned banks may increase [82]. - **Structural Adjustment of Investment Management**: There may be a two - way evolution in the investment management of single and collective plans. The long - term assessment mechanism may be implemented soon, and the equity allocation ratio may increase [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report China's personal pension system has been fully implemented for half a year, and pension wealth - management products are rising rapidly in the multi - level pension system with low - risk and stable returns as core advantages, showing investment potential of "seeking progress while maintaining stability and promising future" [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China's Personal Pension System's Full - scale Implementation and Global Insights 3.1.1 China's Pension System: From "Multi - level" to "Multi - pillar" China's pension system is structured around the internationally - recognized "three - pillar" framework. By the end of 2024, the total scale of China's multi - level pension security system was about 18.8 trillion yuan, a 12.77% increase from the previous year. The first pillar (social security fund + basic pension) accounted for about 63.9% (about 12 trillion yuan), the second pillar 35.8%, and the third pillar about 0.3%, showing the characteristics of "dominated by basic security and the supplementary level awaiting breakthrough" [2][11]. 3.1.2 Full - scale Implementation of Personal Pension The personal pension system was fully implemented in December 2024, with core breakthroughs in national coverage, diversified product systems, and flexible services and withdrawals. By the end of May 2025, the number of account - opening exceeded 72 million, and the number of products increased to 1,031, but the phenomenon of "hot account - opening and cold deposit" was prominent [15][16]. 3.1.3 International Comparison of Personal Pension Systems The core of the US personal pension system is the Individual Retirement Account (IRAs), with an asset scale of about 17 trillion US dollars by the end of 2024. The UK's personal pension started in 1986, and by the end of 2021, its scale was about 470 billion pounds. Japan's personal pension system consists of iDeCo and NISA. Different countries have different tax mechanisms, access conditions, annual payment limits, investment ranges, and withdrawal conditions [17][21][22]. 3.2 Domestic Personal Pension Product Hierarchical Competition and Global Experience 3.2.1 Formation of the Domestic Personal Pension Product Hierarchical Competition Pattern As of the end of May 2025, savings, insurance, wealth - management, and fund products accounted for 45%, 23%, 3%, and 29% respectively in terms of product quantity. The market is dominated by leading institutions, and small and medium - sized institutions seek breakthroughs through characteristic products [33]. 3.2.1.1 Savings Products with Stable Returns As of June 4, 2025, joint - stock banks were the main issuers of savings products, accounting for 58% of the total product quantity. The interest rate of long - term savings products was generally about 0.6 percentage points higher than that of short - term products [40]. 3.2.1.2 Insurance Products: Coexistence of Guaranteed Stability and Return Elasticity As of the end of May 2025, there were 233 insurance products. The market was dominated by leading institutions, and professional pension insurance companies performed prominently. Some products of National Pension Insurance had a settlement interest rate of over 4% in 2024 [45]. 3.2.1.3 Steady Development of Wealth - management Products As of the end of May 2025, there were 35 wealth - management products, mainly from large bank - affiliated wealth - management subsidiaries. The average one - year return rate as of June 6, 2025, was 2.7%, and the average annualized return rate since establishment was 3.1% [54][58]. 3.2.1.4 New Index Products in the Fund Category, with Leading Funds Dominating the Market Pattern As of the end of May 2025, there were 297 fund products. R3 (medium - risk) products dominated, and pension target FOF accounted for the main proportion. Index funds were included in the product catalog in December 2024, and leading institutions dominated the market [61]. 3.2.2 Higher Allocation Ratio of Equity Assets in Developed Countries' Personal Pensions The US IRA's asset allocation has shifted from deposits to equity assets. The UK's Vanguard target funds had an average annualized return rate of about 7.3% (target risk funds) and 7.8% (target date funds) from 2012 - 2024. Japan's iDeco has increased foreign stock allocation, and NISA has a higher risk preference. Compared with developed countries, domestic personal pension products have a lower allocation ratio of equity assets and relatively lower returns [73][79][81]. 3.3 Pension Wealth - management Products Promising in the Future 3.3.1 Overview of Pension Wealth - management Products As of the end of May 2025, 10 out of 11 approved wealth - management companies had issued 51 pension wealth - management products. The market was dominated by state - owned large banks and leading wealth - management companies. There were 271 pension target funds with a management scale of about 60 billion yuan at the end of 2024, and 1,018 annuity pension products with a management scale of about 2.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 [87][91][93]. 3.3.2 Structure of Pension Wealth - management Products As of the end of May 2025, pension wealth - management products were mainly fixed - income, with R2 - level (low - medium risk) products accounting for 96.1%. They had lower management and custody fees compared to pension target funds [98][100]. 3.3.3 Bond - based Asset Allocation in Pension Wealth - management As of Q1 2025, pension wealth - management products mainly allocated fixed - income assets (75.3%), with bonds and non - standard debt assets as the main components. Pension target funds highly relied on public funds, and annuity pension products were mainly allocated to fixed - income assets [101].