1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House last week affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price was also impacted, but the decline was relatively limited. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation, the copper price may enter a temporary shock pattern, with an expected shock range of 99,500 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,230 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 99,930 yuan/ton, a 1.29% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 280 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 150 yuan, a 30 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 100,270 - 101,180 yuan/ton. The main contract of copper futures first rose and then fell in the morning. The current high inventory outflow will suppress the premium, and downstream buyers only purchase on - demand at high copper prices. The spot is expected to maintain a discount pattern [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts starting from the close of trading on January 22, 2026. Geopolitically, Trump mentioned alternative measures for tariffs if the current tools are restricted, and the US Supreme Court has not ruled on Trump's tariff - related matters. Canada's military has simulated a US military invasion [3]. 3.2.2 Mining End - In November 2025, Peru's copper production decreased by 11.2% year - on - year to 216,152 metric tons. From January to November, the cumulative copper production increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 2.5 million tons. It is expected that Peru's copper production will only slightly increase to about 2.8 million tons in 2025, showing long - term growth challenges [4]. 3.2.3 Smelting and Imports - In December 2025, China's imports of scrap copper were 238,976.87 tons, a 14.83% increase from the previous month and a 9.90% increase year - on - year. Japan and Thailand were the top two sources of imports [4]. 3.2.4 Consumption - Last week, the copper price fluctuated narrowly. Due to the approaching month - end, downstream consumption had limited improvement. Some processing enterprises rushed to export, and the market demand was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mainly made on - demand purchases at low prices [5]. 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,850 tons to 156,300 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons. On January 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data - The table provides data on SMM 1 copper (premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper), Yangshan premium, LME (0 - 3), inventory (LME, SHFE, COMEX), warehouse receipts (SHFE, LME cancellation ratio), arbitrage (CU05 - CU02, CU03 - CU02), and import profit, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) from different time points (January 21, 2026; January 20, 2026; January 14, 2026; December 22, 2025) [24][25][26][27]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 师橙 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-20，沪铜主力合约开于 101020元/吨，收于 101230元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.05%，昨日夜盘 沪铜主力合约开于 101，020元/吨，收于 99，930 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上下降1.29%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2602合约报价贴水280至贴水20元/吨，均价贴水150元，较前一 日下跌30元。现货价格区间为100270-101180元/吨。期铜主力早盘先涨后跌，开盘自101380元冲高至 101700元后回落，两度下探100700元附近，尾盘收于101000元。隔月价差在260-190元/吨，当月进口亏 损约760-810元/吨。早间平水铜报贴水200-60元，中条山、豫光等报贴水200元，好铜货紧、贵溪报升水 30元。随后报价迅速下调，贵溪平水成交，金川大板调至贴水30元，鲁方、JCC报贴水90-60元。午后 交投清淡，报价进一步走弱，金川大板报贴水50元，平水铜报贴水280-80元，随后铁峰、中条山以贴水 260元成交。目前 ...

海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年12月废铜（铜废碎料）进口量为238,976.87 吨，环比增加14.83%，同比增长9.90%。 日本是第一大进口来源地，当月从日本进口废铜（铜废碎料）39,349.80吨，环比下降2.25%，同比增加 37.41%。 泰国是第二大进口来源地，当月从泰国进口废铜（铜废碎料）35,622.20吨，环比上升4.74%，同比增加 105.62%。 | 阿尔及利亚 | 857.39 | -31.12% | 430.79% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 捷克 | 759.04 | 240.81% | 70.12% | | 亲温 | 718.73 | 107.65% | 38.82% | | 波兰 | 679.99 | 128.64% | 239.56% | | 拉脱维亚 | 660.07 | 92.57% | 6.31% | | 多米尼加 | 656.70 | 60.83% | 48.35% | | 肯尼亚 | 652.48 | -15.54% | -42.82% | | 加纳 | 610.10 | 15.27% | 100.83% ...

海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年11月废铜（铜废碎料）进口量为208,143.09 吨，环比增长5.88%，同比增长19.99%。 日本是第一大进口来源地，当月从日本进口废铜（铜废碎料）40,256.96吨，环比增长21.24%，同比增 长95.70%。 以下为根据中国海关总署官网数据整理的2025年11月废铜进口分项数据一览表： | 原产地 | 2025年11月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日本 | 40,256.96 | 21.24% | 95.70% | | 泰国 | 34,010.43 | 9.53% | 106.20% | | 韩国 | 18.185.39 | 57.18% | 105.56% | | 三四米可 | 11,098.84 | 18.14% | -33.11% | | 無知國出 | 9,910.18 | 56.98% | 73.91% | | 加拿大 | 7,832.95 | 0.73% | 146.66% | | 墨西哥 | 7,778.59 | 13.44% | 110.58% | | 英国 | 7,47 ...

Core Insights - China's copper scrap imports in October 2025 reached 196,607.27 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.81% and a year-on-year increase of 7.35% [1][3]. Import Sources - Japan remains the largest source of copper scrap imports, supplying 33,203.02 tons in October 2025, which is a decrease of 0.86% from the previous month but an increase of 45.91% year-on-year [1][3]. - Thailand is the second-largest source, with imports of 31,050.68 tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 3.00% and a year-on-year increase of 92.18% [1][3]. - Other notable sources include: - South Korea: 11,569.65 tons, down 4.29% month-on-month, up 24.97% year-on-year [1]. - Malaysia: 9,394.86 tons, down 7.63% month-on-month, down 46.24% year-on-year [1]. - United Kingdom: 8,134.51 tons, up 6.49% month-on-month, up 29.71% year-on-year [1]. - Russia: 8,023.12 tons, up 147.01% month-on-month, up 25.26% year-on-year [1]. - Canada: 7,776.53 tons, up 4.91% month-on-month, up 55.58% year-on-year [1]. - Spain: 7,572.21 tons, up 16.82% month-on-month, up 65.13% year-on-year [1]. Additional Insights - The overall import data includes contributions from various other countries, with significant fluctuations observed in imports from nations such as the United States, which saw a dramatic increase of 194.79% month-on-month but a decrease of 93.43% year-on-year [1]. - Emerging markets like India and Nigeria also showed substantial year-on-year growth rates of 279.94% and 40.18%, respectively [1].

泰国是第二大进口来源地，当月从泰国进口废铜30,034.35吨，环比下降12.64%，同比上升103.08%。 海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年8月废铜（铜废碎料）进口量为179,359.74吨， 环比减少5.64%，同比上升5.93%。 日本是第一大进口来源地，当月从日本进口废铜35,443.33吨，环比下降1.95%，同比上升85.03%。 注：进口总量（总计）中亦包括上表未列出的部分原产地数据 | j | AFFILL | 1 -- ---- | Ania 110 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多米尼加 | 587.38 | 24.19% | 141.05% | | 印度 | 580.03 | -0.04% | 89.21% | | 玻利维亚 | 551.53 | -12.46% | 54.99% | | 美国 | 543.87 | -7.28% | -98.13% | | 阿尔及利亚 | 513.62 | 4.05% | 107.50% | | 秘鲁 | 502.52 | -0.24% | 23.28% | | 黎田嫩 | 457.06 | 10.7 ...

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's copper scrap imports totaled 190,077.53 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.73% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.98% [1][4] - Japan emerged as the largest supplier of copper scrap to China, with imports of 36,147.03 tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 42.40% and a year-on-year increase of 75.13% [1][2] - Thailand ranked second, supplying 34,379.25 tons of copper scrap, which is a month-on-month increase of 31.11% and a year-on-year increase of 158.78% [1][2] Import Data Summary - **Japan**: 36,147.03 tons, +42.40% (MoM), +75.13% (YoY) [2] - **Thailand**: 34,379.25 tons, +31.11% (MoM), +158.78% (YoY) [2] - **South Korea**: 9,961.87 tons, +8.88% (MoM), -2.81% (YoY) [2] - **China (Mainland)**: 9,235.56 tons, +23.84% (MoM), +6.94% (YoY) [2] - **Saudi Arabia**: 6,917.76 tons, -14.62% (MoM), +140.08% (YoY) [2] - **United States**: 586.57 tons, -70.61% (MoM), -98.38% (YoY) [2] Overall Trends - The total import volume of copper scrap in July 2025 indicates a slight recovery from the previous month, while the year-on-year figures suggest a decline [4] - Significant increases in imports from Japan and Thailand highlight a shift in sourcing strategies for copper scrap [1][2] - The data reflects varying performance across different countries, with some suppliers experiencing substantial growth while others face declines [2][3]