1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House last week affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price was also impacted, but the decline was relatively limited. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation, the copper price may enter a temporary shock pattern, with an expected shock range of 99,500 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,230 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 99,930 yuan/ton, a 1.29% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 280 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 150 yuan, a 30 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 100,270 - 101,180 yuan/ton. The main contract of copper futures first rose and then fell in the morning. The current high inventory outflow will suppress the premium, and downstream buyers only purchase on - demand at high copper prices. The spot is expected to maintain a discount pattern [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts starting from the close of trading on January 22, 2026. Geopolitically, Trump mentioned alternative measures for tariffs if the current tools are restricted, and the US Supreme Court has not ruled on Trump's tariff - related matters. Canada's military has simulated a US military invasion [3]. 3.2.2 Mining End - In November 2025, Peru's copper production decreased by 11.2% year - on - year to 216,152 metric tons. From January to November, the cumulative copper production increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 2.5 million tons. It is expected that Peru's copper production will only slightly increase to about 2.8 million tons in 2025, showing long - term growth challenges [4]. 3.2.3 Smelting and Imports - In December 2025, China's imports of scrap copper were 238,976.87 tons, a 14.83% increase from the previous month and a 9.90% increase year - on - year. Japan and Thailand were the top two sources of imports [4]. 3.2.4 Consumption - Last week, the copper price fluctuated narrowly. Due to the approaching month - end, downstream consumption had limited improvement. Some processing enterprises rushed to export, and the market demand was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mainly made on - demand purchases at low prices [5]. 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,850 tons to 156,300 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons. On January 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data - The table provides data on SMM 1 copper (premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper), Yangshan premium, LME (0 - 3), inventory (LME, SHFE, COMEX), warehouse receipts (SHFE, LME cancellation ratio), arbitrage (CU05 - CU02, CU03 - CU02), and import profit, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) from different time points (January 21, 2026; January 20, 2026; January 14, 2026; December 22, 2025) [24][25][26][27]

Market Overview - The main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 101,020 CNY/ton and closed at 101,230 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% from the previous trading day [14] - The night session saw the contract open at 101,020 CNY/ton and close at 99,930 CNY/ton, marking a decrease of 1.29% from the afternoon close [14] Spot Market - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot price was quoted at a discount of 280 to 20 CNY/ton against the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 150 CNY, down 30 CNY from the previous day [15] - The spot price range was between 100,270 and 101,180 CNY/ton, with the main copper futures initially rising before falling back to close at 101,000 CNY [15] - The current market is characterized by a discount structure due to high copper prices and limited downstream purchasing, with logistics remaining generally smooth despite potential impacts from snowfall in the north [15] Regulatory Changes - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price limits for various futures contracts effective January 22, 2026, including an 8% price limit for copper futures and a 10% margin for general positions [16][5] Mining Sector - Peru's copper production in November 2025 decreased by 11.2% year-on-year to 216,152 tons, while cumulative production from January to November 2025 increased by 1.6% to 2.5 million tons [17] - The long-term growth outlook for Peru's copper production remains weak due to a lack of new projects and declining ore grades, with expectations for only a slight increase to around 2.8 million tons in 2026 [17] Import and Recycling - In December 2025, China's imports of scrap copper totaled 238,976.87 tons, representing a month-on-month increase of 14.83% and a year-on-year increase of 9.90% [17] - Japan was the largest source of scrap copper imports, while Thailand also showed significant growth in exports to China [17] Consumption Trends - Last week, copper prices remained stable with limited demand from downstream markets, as overall orders were lackluster, leading to a focus on just-in-time purchasing by downstream enterprises [18] - The LME warehouse stocks decreased by 3,850 tons to 156,300 tons, while SHFE stocks fell by 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons [18] Price Strategy - The current outlook for copper prices is neutral, with expectations of a trading range between 99,500 CNY/ton and 110,000 CNY/ton due to high prices and weak downstream demand [19]

海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年12月废铜（铜废碎料）进口量为238,976.87 吨，环比增加14.83%，同比增长9.90%。 日本是第一大进口来源地，当月从日本进口废铜（铜废碎料）39,349.80吨，环比下降2.25%，同比增加 37.41%。 泰国是第二大进口来源地，当月从泰国进口废铜（铜废碎料）35,622.20吨，环比上升4.74%，同比增加 105.62%。 | 阿尔及利亚 | 857.39 | -31.12% | 430.79% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 捷克 | 759.04 | 240.81% | 70.12% | | 亲温 | 718.73 | 107.65% | 38.82% | | 波兰 | 679.99 | 128.64% | 239.56% | | 拉脱维亚 | 660.07 | 92.57% | 6.31% | | 多米尼加 | 656.70 | 60.83% | 48.35% | | 肯尼亚 | 652.48 | -15.54% | -42.82% | | 加纳 | 610.10 | 15.27% | 100.83% ...

海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年11月废铜（铜废碎料）进口量为208,143.09 吨，环比增长5.88%，同比增长19.99%。 日本是第一大进口来源地，当月从日本进口废铜（铜废碎料）40,256.96吨，环比增长21.24%，同比增 长95.70%。 以下为根据中国海关总署官网数据整理的2025年11月废铜进口分项数据一览表： | 原产地 | 2025年11月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日本 | 40,256.96 | 21.24% | 95.70% | | 泰国 | 34,010.43 | 9.53% | 106.20% | | 韩国 | 18.185.39 | 57.18% | 105.56% | | 三四米可 | 11,098.84 | 18.14% | -33.11% | | 無知國出 | 9,910.18 | 56.98% | 73.91% | | 加拿大 | 7,832.95 | 0.73% | 146.66% | | 墨西哥 | 7,778.59 | 13.44% | 110.58% | | 英国 | 7,47 ...

Core Insights - China's copper scrap imports in October 2025 reached 196,607.27 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.81% and a year-on-year increase of 7.35% [1][3]. Import Sources - Japan remains the largest source of copper scrap imports, supplying 33,203.02 tons in October 2025, which is a decrease of 0.86% from the previous month but an increase of 45.91% year-on-year [1][3]. - Thailand is the second-largest source, with imports of 31,050.68 tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 3.00% and a year-on-year increase of 92.18% [1][3]. - Other notable sources include: - South Korea: 11,569.65 tons, down 4.29% month-on-month, up 24.97% year-on-year [1]. - Malaysia: 9,394.86 tons, down 7.63% month-on-month, down 46.24% year-on-year [1]. - United Kingdom: 8,134.51 tons, up 6.49% month-on-month, up 29.71% year-on-year [1]. - Russia: 8,023.12 tons, up 147.01% month-on-month, up 25.26% year-on-year [1]. - Canada: 7,776.53 tons, up 4.91% month-on-month, up 55.58% year-on-year [1]. - Spain: 7,572.21 tons, up 16.82% month-on-month, up 65.13% year-on-year [1]. Additional Insights - The overall import data includes contributions from various other countries, with significant fluctuations observed in imports from nations such as the United States, which saw a dramatic increase of 194.79% month-on-month but a decrease of 93.43% year-on-year [1]. - Emerging markets like India and Nigeria also showed substantial year-on-year growth rates of 279.94% and 40.18%, respectively [1].

泰国是第二大进口来源地，当月从泰国进口废铜30,034.35吨，环比下降12.64%，同比上升103.08%。 海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年8月废铜（铜废碎料）进口量为179,359.74吨， 环比减少5.64%，同比上升5.93%。 日本是第一大进口来源地，当月从日本进口废铜35,443.33吨，环比下降1.95%，同比上升85.03%。 注：进口总量（总计）中亦包括上表未列出的部分原产地数据 | j | AFFILL | 1 -- ---- | Ania 110 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多米尼加 | 587.38 | 24.19% | 141.05% | | 印度 | 580.03 | -0.04% | 89.21% | | 玻利维亚 | 551.53 | -12.46% | 54.99% | | 美国 | 543.87 | -7.28% | -98.13% | | 阿尔及利亚 | 513.62 | 4.05% | 107.50% | | 秘鲁 | 502.52 | -0.24% | 23.28% | | 黎田嫩 | 457.06 | 10.7 ...

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's copper scrap imports totaled 190,077.53 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.73% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.98% [1][4] - Japan emerged as the largest supplier of copper scrap to China, with imports of 36,147.03 tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 42.40% and a year-on-year increase of 75.13% [1][2] - Thailand ranked second, supplying 34,379.25 tons of copper scrap, which is a month-on-month increase of 31.11% and a year-on-year increase of 158.78% [1][2] Import Data Summary - **Japan**: 36,147.03 tons, +42.40% (MoM), +75.13% (YoY) [2] - **Thailand**: 34,379.25 tons, +31.11% (MoM), +158.78% (YoY) [2] - **South Korea**: 9,961.87 tons, +8.88% (MoM), -2.81% (YoY) [2] - **China (Mainland)**: 9,235.56 tons, +23.84% (MoM), +6.94% (YoY) [2] - **Saudi Arabia**: 6,917.76 tons, -14.62% (MoM), +140.08% (YoY) [2] - **United States**: 586.57 tons, -70.61% (MoM), -98.38% (YoY) [2] Overall Trends - The total import volume of copper scrap in July 2025 indicates a slight recovery from the previous month, while the year-on-year figures suggest a decline [4] - Significant increases in imports from Japan and Thailand highlight a shift in sourcing strategies for copper scrap [1][2] - The data reflects varying performance across different countries, with some suppliers experiencing substantial growth while others face declines [2][3]