价格可能是首个信号，但库存或许会成为最及时的基本面指标，无论是反映需求复苏的迹象，还是预示潜在回 调的早期预警信号。 核心要点 自 2025 年 9 月以来，中国铜需求一直表现疲软，高价格对相关活动产生了抑制作用。 春节后未来两个月内，铜库存可能会出现累积。 本周中国因春节假期休市，铜市场正热切期待春节后的相关活跃度及需求数据。 本周中国因春节假期休市，铜市场正热切期待春节后的相关活跃度及需求数据。 价格可能是首个信号，但库存或许会成为最及时的基本面指标，无论是反映需求复苏的迹象，还是预示潜在回 调的早期预警信号。 核心要点 自 2025 年 9 月以来，中国铜需求一直表现疲软，高价格对相关活动产生了抑制作用。 春节后未来两个月内，铜库存可能会出现累积。 若市场活跃度改善，那么库存有望随之下降； 若活跃度未改善，这可能成为中国铜需求持续放缓的早期指标。 目前，宏观主题仍将为铜价提供有力支撑，但中国铜需求最终也会产生影响，源头信息加微WUXL7713无论是 积极影响还是消极影响。 中国铜库存可能是春节后需求复苏的早期指标。 据我们测算，中国铜需求自 2025 年 9 月起持续走弱，第四季度同比下降 8.9%。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：情绪降温，铜价偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 【行情分析】 沪铜高开低走，日内收跌。供给方面，在本周四，卡普斯通铜业公司称，因最大工 会与公司未达成集体谈判协议引发罢工，致其位于智利的曼托韦德铜矿停产，该矿预计 2025 年阴极铜产量为 2.9 万至 3.2 万吨。TC/RC 费用保持弱稳，且出现进一步下探的趋 势，市场对供应端紧张的态度未曾改变。SMM 根据各家排产情况，预计 1 月国内电解铜 产量环比下降 1.45 万吨降幅为 1.23%，同比增加 15.63 万吨升幅为 14.78%。需求方面， 截至 2025 年 12 月，铜表观消费量为 131.88 万吨，环比上月增长 4.00%。临近春节叠加 铜价高企，大多中小企业开启放假，对原料端的采购意愿低迷，终端新能源汽车表现不 佳，其他传统行业冰箱及空调等有出现小幅的上涨。美国对铜关税征收的预期减弱后， C-L 价差收敛，美国铜库存或有外溢，非美库存有增加，若持续价差收敛，全球由铜关 税引起的库存结构失衡将缓解，整体供应端或边际转好，故铜盘面我们预计短期高位震 荡为主，下半年随着矿端复产，一旦供应宽松显现， ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility, with domestic copper fluctuating between 99,000-105,600 CNY/ton and LME copper between 12,500-13,500 USD/ton, indicating a lack of upward momentum at these absolute highs [3][15]. Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is generally favorable, influenced by geopolitical tensions, including U.S. actions in Venezuela and rising tensions with Iran, which have boosted safe-haven assets like gold and silver, positively impacting non-ferrous metals [4][16]. - The U.S. government's emphasis on its dominance in the Western Hemisphere highlights the strategic value of key mineral resources, particularly copper from major producing countries like Chile and Peru [4][16]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and the potential appointment of Rick Riedel as the new Federal Reserve Chair are contributing to a bullish sentiment for precious metals and copper [4][16]. Copper Supply Constraints - Copper supply remains tight, posing a significant constraint in the medium to long term. Negotiations for processing fees for 2026 are ongoing, with Chinese smelters agreeing to a benchmark of 0 USD/ton for copper concentrate [5][17]. - The SMM imported copper concentrate TC index has dropped to -49.79 USD/dry ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [5][17]. - Global copper mine production in November 2025 was reported at 1.923 million tons, a slight decrease from October, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [5][17][18]. Refined Copper Production - Global refined copper production in November 2025 was 2.371 million tons, down 3,000 tons from October, with a cumulative increase of 4.2% year-on-year [6][19]. - China's refined copper production for December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [6][19]. Current Market Conditions - The domestic refined copper inventory has been accumulating, with SMM social inventory rising from approximately 160,000 tons to 330,000 tons [7][20]. - The current state of the market shows a slight backwardation, with the spot price of copper experiencing a small discount due to high prices and subdued demand [7][20]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to dampen demand, with a potential slowdown in recovery post-holiday [9][21]. Overall Market Outlook - The weakening dollar and geopolitical tensions are providing support for precious metals and non-ferrous metals, although copper prices are experiencing limited upward movement due to high levels and market sentiment [10][22]. - Supply-side constraints persist, with low processing fees and high refined copper production levels, while domestic inventories are accumulating [10][22]. - Overall, while short-term copper prices may be prone to increases, market sentiment can shift rapidly at these elevated levels, necessitating careful position management [10][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House last week affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price was also impacted, but the decline was relatively limited. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation, the copper price may enter a temporary shock pattern, with an expected shock range of 99,500 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,230 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 99,930 yuan/ton, a 1.29% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 280 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 150 yuan, a 30 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 100,270 - 101,180 yuan/ton. The main contract of copper futures first rose and then fell in the morning. The current high inventory outflow will suppress the premium, and downstream buyers only purchase on - demand at high copper prices. The spot is expected to maintain a discount pattern [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts starting from the close of trading on January 22, 2026. Geopolitically, Trump mentioned alternative measures for tariffs if the current tools are restricted, and the US Supreme Court has not ruled on Trump's tariff - related matters. Canada's military has simulated a US military invasion [3]. 3.2.2 Mining End - In November 2025, Peru's copper production decreased by 11.2% year - on - year to 216,152 metric tons. From January to November, the cumulative copper production increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 2.5 million tons. It is expected that Peru's copper production will only slightly increase to about 2.8 million tons in 2025, showing long - term growth challenges [4]. 3.2.3 Smelting and Imports - In December 2025, China's imports of scrap copper were 238,976.87 tons, a 14.83% increase from the previous month and a 9.90% increase year - on - year. Japan and Thailand were the top two sources of imports [4]. 3.2.4 Consumption - Last week, the copper price fluctuated narrowly. Due to the approaching month - end, downstream consumption had limited improvement. Some processing enterprises rushed to export, and the market demand was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mainly made on - demand purchases at low prices [5]. 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,850 tons to 156,300 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons. On January 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data - The table provides data on SMM 1 copper (premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper), Yangshan premium, LME (0 - 3), inventory (LME, SHFE, COMEX), warehouse receipts (SHFE, LME cancellation ratio), arbitrage (CU05 - CU02, CU03 - CU02), and import profit, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) from different time points (January 21, 2026; January 20, 2026; January 14, 2026; December 22, 2025) [24][25][26][27]

在澄清数量级问题后，AI数据中心对铜需求的实际影响也被重新评估。 截至目前，英伟达尚未就上述数字修改发布任何公开说明或更正声明，也未披露文章的版本更新记录。英伟达方面亦未回应相关置评请求。 在澄清数量级问题后，AI 数据中心对铜需求的实际影响也被重新评估。国金证券财富产品中心测算显示，即便按照麦肯锡预测，到 2030 年全球数据中心 总装机容量达到约 219 吉瓦，按照英伟达更正后的数据测算，对应的供电系统铜用量规模也仅在数万吨量级，约为4.4万吨，占当前全球年铜年产量（约 2860多万吨）的比重不足 0.2%。而按照英伟达未更正前的旧数据测算，在2030年全球数据中心容量达219吉瓦的情况下，需要铜超1亿吨。 从供需基本面看，机构普遍认为，AI 数据中心本身并不足以单独改写铜市场格局。高盛在去年12月发布的报告中指出，当前全球铜现货市场并未出现明 显供应紧张，并预计 2026 年可能出现小幅过剩，其对 2026 年上半年铜价的均价预测约为每吨 10710 美元。 围绕人工智能数据中心对大宗商品需求的影响，一篇来自英伟达（NVIDIA）的技术博客文章近日引发市场争议，并牵出一桩关于"数量级错误"的风波。 争议 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential copper shortage due to increasing demand from data centers, but recent findings suggest that the projected copper gap may be overestimated [2][4]. Group 1: Copper Demand Projections - McKinsey estimates that by 2030, global data center capacity demand will reach 219 GW, requiring over 100 million tons of copper, while global copper reserves were only 980 million tons as of last year [4]. - S&P predicts an annual addition of 30 GW capacity in data centers by 2030, translating to a copper demand of approximately 15 million tons, while last year's copper production was only 28.63 million tons [4]. Group 2: Reassessment of Copper Requirements - A recent investigation indicates that NVIDIA's report may have contained a significant error, leading to an exaggerated copper gap. A 1 GW rack should require 200 tons of copper, not the 50,000 tons previously stated [4]. - Thunder Said Energy suggests that the correct figure for 50,000 tons should actually be 50,000 pounds, equivalent to 226 tons, significantly reducing the estimated copper demand for data centers [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Supply - Goldman Sachs reported that the copper spot market is not currently facing a supply shortage and anticipates a slight surplus by 2026, with copper prices expected to average $10,710 per ounce in the first half of this year [5]. - S&P Global notes that high electricity consumption from data centers, the transition to electric vehicles, and the installation of 2 billion air conditioners will drive significant copper demand, projecting an increase from 28 million tons in 2025 to 42 million tons by 2040 [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The U.S. employment data affects the interest - rate cut expectations, leading to a slight increase in copper prices. Copper production shows an increasing trend, and as the demand side is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, the fundamentals limit the rebound space. With the release of U.S. economic data and the approaching of the interest - rate meeting, the trend of copper prices will become clearer [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 18 were 232,000, and the continued jobless claims were 1.957 million, an increase from the previous week. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons and an expected maintenance impact of 48,000 tons. However, some enterprises that underwent maintenance in October are resuming production, and with the increase in copper prices, production enthusiasm is rising, so output is expected to increase. The supply of scrap copper has increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. The rise in copper prices has restricted downstream consumption, and except for the power and power battery new - energy sectors, downstream demand is weak. In October 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 134,304 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.8%, and imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, showing strength during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 70 yuan/ton, and in South China was 35 yuan/ton. On November 18, 2025, the LME official price was $10,690/ton, and the spot premium was - $41/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of November 17, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.82/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 58,400 tons, a decrease of 2,522 tons from the previous period. As of November 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 111,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 140,500 tons, an increase of 325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 389,300 short tons, an increase of 3,221 short tons from the previous period [9].

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Core Insights - HSBC reports that the large accumulation of copper inventory in the U.S. may decrease, weakening the demand for copper in the country [1] - Current COMEX copper inventory has reached a 21-year high due to buyers anticipating larger tariffs on copper imports in the U.S. [1] - HSBC forecasts an average copper price of $4.24 per pound in 2025 and $4.15 per pound in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Freeport's CEO Quirk emphasizes China's significant role as the main driver of copper demand [1] - India is identified as an important emerging market for copper [1]