【冠通期货研究报告】 就业数据疲软，铜价小幅增长 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 19 日 【行情分析】 今日铜低开高走，日内偏强。美国政府官网显示，截至 10 月 18 日当周初请失业金 人数为 23.2 万人；续请失业金人数为 195.7 万人，较此前一周的续请失业金人数 194.7 万人有所增长。11 月预计 5 家冶炼厂检修，涉及粗炼产能 150 万吨，预计检修影响量为 4.80 万吨，但 10 月检修企业逐渐有复产，且铜价上移后，生产端积极性增加，产量有 望上移。据 SMM 调研了解，再生铜杆企业反映有个别地区或将恢复政府扶持工作，具体 如何执行仍需等待下周缴税后。铜价上移后，废铜供应增多，弥补铜矿端资源不足的缺 口。需求方面，铜价重心上移，下游消费受限，传统行业受前期关税及国补政策影响出 现需求前置，近期成交氛围偏弱，除电力及动力电池新能源外，下游需求表现均不佳。 2025 年 10 月中国未锻轧铜及铜材出口量为 134304 吨，同比增长 67.8%；进口量为 44 万 吨，同比下降 13.5%。综合来看，美国就业数据影响降息预期，铜价小幅增长。铜产量 有增加趋势，需求端旺季向淡季过渡阶段，基 ...

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Core Insights - HSBC reports that the large accumulation of copper inventory in the U.S. may decrease, weakening the demand for copper in the country [1] - Current COMEX copper inventory has reached a 21-year high due to buyers anticipating larger tariffs on copper imports in the U.S. [1] - HSBC forecasts an average copper price of $4.24 per pound in 2025 and $4.15 per pound in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Freeport's CEO Quirk emphasizes China's significant role as the main driver of copper demand [1] - India is identified as an important emerging market for copper [1]

Core Insights - Copper futures prices have retreated from a three-month high, raising questions about whether copper demand is genuinely weakening and if strong premiums can act as a stabilizer for prices [1] Group 1 - The recent decline in copper futures prices indicates potential shifts in market dynamics [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the actual demand for copper and its implications for future pricing [1] - The ability of strong premiums to stabilize prices remains a critical factor for market participants [1]

Core Insights - Chile's Finance Minister emphasizes the country's strong project pipeline in the mining sector, particularly in copper, driven by robust global demand for the metal [1] Group 1: Mining Sector - The Chilean government has a significant reserve of mining projects, indicating a proactive approach to capitalizing on the growing demand for copper [1] - Global demand for copper is described as strong, suggesting favorable market conditions for mining companies operating in this sector [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][12] Core Viewpoints - Recent changes in copper processing material output align with terminal industry trends, with high demand in the power electronics, new energy vehicles, and air conditioning sectors driving growth in copper strips, foils, and pipes. Conversely, products related to real estate and construction, such as brass rods and brass strips, have seen stagnant or declining output [3][12] - Looking ahead to 2025, investment in the power sector is expected to maintain high growth, while home appliances will continue to benefit from national subsidies. Although growth in solar energy and new energy vehicles may slow, the drag from the real estate and construction sector is expected to lessen, indicating resilient copper demand overall [3][12] - With limited growth in copper supply, the copper market is expected to remain in a tight balance, keeping copper prices at elevated levels. It is recommended to continue monitoring copper mining stocks that benefit from high copper prices, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, Wanguo Resources, Western Mining, and China Nonferrous Mining [3][12] Summary by Sections Copper Processing Material Output - In 2024, China's copper processing material output is projected to increase by 1.9% year-on-year, reaching 21.25 million tons. The output growth is primarily driven by copper foils and pipes, which correspond to high demand in lithium battery foils and air conditioning pipes [4][12] - From 2020 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of copper processing material output is maintained at 3%, with copper foil showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22%, significantly outpacing other categories [4][12] Copper Foil - The growth in copper foil output is mainly attributed to lithium battery copper foils, which saw a 143% increase in 2024 compared to 2021. However, this growth rate is lower than the 257% increase in domestic power battery output during the same period, primarily due to the trend of thinner lithium battery copper foils [7][12] Copper Strip - The production of purple copper strips has surpassed that of brass strips since 2022, with purple copper strips accounting for 45% of the total copper strip output in 2024. This shift is driven by increased demand in the power, electronics, and communications sectors [8][12] Copper Pipe - In 2024, the total output of copper pipes is expected to be 2.36 million tons, with purple copper pipes making up 2.24 million tons. The growth in copper pipe output is largely driven by the demand for purple inner threaded pipes, which have higher heat exchange efficiency due to their larger contact area [10][12]