Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the copper market in China, particularly in the context of the upcoming post-Spring Festival activity and demand data [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Weak Demand**: Since September 2025, China's copper demand has been weak, with a year-on-year decline of 8.9% in the fourth quarter [2][3]. - **Price Resilience**: Despite the weak demand, copper prices have shown resilience, reaching a historical high at the end of January due to macroeconomic factors [2][4]. - **Inventory as an Indicator**: Copper inventory is expected to rise post-Spring Festival, typically peaking around nine weeks after the holiday, which could provide early signals of demand recovery or continued weakness [2][4]. - **Market Activity**: The market's activity level is crucial; if it improves, inventory may decrease, indicating a recovery in demand. Conversely, stagnant activity could signal ongoing demand weakness [1][2]. - **Seasonal Accumulation**: The seasonal accumulation of copper inventory during the Spring Festival is expected to last until the week of April 20, with a slower accumulation rate observed this year due to the later holiday [2][4]. - **Shift in Supply Dynamics**: China is increasingly turning to domestic refined copper production rather than relying on imports, which may affect inventory flows [3]. Additional Important Insights - **Historical Context**: Past instances, such as the impact of China's zero-COVID policy in 2022, illustrate how external factors can significantly influence copper prices and demand [3]. - **Cost Competitiveness**: In 2024, the rise in data center-related demand led to a 34% increase in copper prices, which in turn suppressed refined copper demand as manufacturers opted for scrap copper to maintain cost competitiveness [4]. - **Future Price Support**: If inventory levels decrease, it is anticipated that copper prices will receive additional support, indicating that demand can sustain current price levels [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market is expected to experience short - term high - level oscillations. In the second half of the year, as the mining end resumes production and supply becomes looser, the market may cool down. Currently, due to dollar support and supply tightness, copper prices are strong, but the upside is limited by demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low, with a decline on the day. The supply side is affected by the strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile, and the TC/RC fees are weakly stable with a downward trend. SMM predicts that the domestic electrolytic copper production in January will decrease by 1.45 tons month - on - month (a 1.23% decline) and increase by 15.63 tons year - on - year (a 14.78% increase). The demand side shows that as of December 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 131.88 tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. Near the Spring Festival and with high copper prices, most small and medium - sized enterprises have started their holidays, and the procurement willingness for raw materials is low. The performance of new energy vehicles is poor, while traditional industries such as refrigerators and air conditioners have a slight increase. After the weakening of the US copper tariff collection expectation, the C - L spread has converged, and the US copper inventory may overflow, which may ease the inventory structure imbalance caused by copper tariffs [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, with a decline on the day. Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 250 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 235 yuan/ton. On January 26, 2026, the LME official price is 13245 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 50 US dollars/ton [3] 3. Supply Side - As of January 26, the spot smelting fee (TC) is - 50 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 5.18 cents/pound [8] 4. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 14.49 tons, a decrease of 406 tons from the previous period. As of January 26, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 10.03 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 17.05 tons, a decrease of 1175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 56.56 thousand short tons, an increase of 3257 short tons from the previous period [12]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility, with domestic copper fluctuating between 99,000-105,600 CNY/ton and LME copper between 12,500-13,500 USD/ton, indicating a lack of upward momentum at these absolute highs [3][15]. Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is generally favorable, influenced by geopolitical tensions, including U.S. actions in Venezuela and rising tensions with Iran, which have boosted safe-haven assets like gold and silver, positively impacting non-ferrous metals [4][16]. - The U.S. government's emphasis on its dominance in the Western Hemisphere highlights the strategic value of key mineral resources, particularly copper from major producing countries like Chile and Peru [4][16]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and the potential appointment of Rick Riedel as the new Federal Reserve Chair are contributing to a bullish sentiment for precious metals and copper [4][16]. Copper Supply Constraints - Copper supply remains tight, posing a significant constraint in the medium to long term. Negotiations for processing fees for 2026 are ongoing, with Chinese smelters agreeing to a benchmark of 0 USD/ton for copper concentrate [5][17]. - The SMM imported copper concentrate TC index has dropped to -49.79 USD/dry ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [5][17]. - Global copper mine production in November 2025 was reported at 1.923 million tons, a slight decrease from October, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [5][17][18]. Refined Copper Production - Global refined copper production in November 2025 was 2.371 million tons, down 3,000 tons from October, with a cumulative increase of 4.2% year-on-year [6][19]. - China's refined copper production for December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [6][19]. Current Market Conditions - The domestic refined copper inventory has been accumulating, with SMM social inventory rising from approximately 160,000 tons to 330,000 tons [7][20]. - The current state of the market shows a slight backwardation, with the spot price of copper experiencing a small discount due to high prices and subdued demand [7][20]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to dampen demand, with a potential slowdown in recovery post-holiday [9][21]. Overall Market Outlook - The weakening dollar and geopolitical tensions are providing support for precious metals and non-ferrous metals, although copper prices are experiencing limited upward movement due to high levels and market sentiment [10][22]. - Supply-side constraints persist, with low processing fees and high refined copper production levels, while domestic inventories are accumulating [10][22]. - Overall, while short-term copper prices may be prone to increases, market sentiment can shift rapidly at these elevated levels, necessitating careful position management [10][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [6] - Options: Sell Put [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House last week affected the market's outlook for non - ferrous metals demand. The copper price was also impacted, but the decline was relatively limited. Given the high copper price, weak downstream demand, and obvious inventory accumulation, the copper price may enter a temporary shock pattern, with an expected shock range of 99,500 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On January 20, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,230 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 99,930 yuan/ton, a 1.29% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 280 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of 150 yuan, a 30 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The spot price range was 100,270 - 101,180 yuan/ton. The main contract of copper futures first rose and then fell in the morning. The current high inventory outflow will suppress the premium, and downstream buyers only purchase on - demand at high copper prices. The spot is expected to maintain a discount pattern [2]. 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for copper, aluminum, gold, and silver futures contracts starting from the close of trading on January 22, 2026. Geopolitically, Trump mentioned alternative measures for tariffs if the current tools are restricted, and the US Supreme Court has not ruled on Trump's tariff - related matters. Canada's military has simulated a US military invasion [3]. 3.2.2 Mining End - In November 2025, Peru's copper production decreased by 11.2% year - on - year to 216,152 metric tons. From January to November, the cumulative copper production increased by 1.6% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 2.5 million tons. It is expected that Peru's copper production will only slightly increase to about 2.8 million tons in 2025, showing long - term growth challenges [4]. 3.2.3 Smelting and Imports - In December 2025, China's imports of scrap copper were 238,976.87 tons, a 14.83% increase from the previous month and a 9.90% increase year - on - year. Japan and Thailand were the top two sources of imports [4]. 3.2.4 Consumption - Last week, the copper price fluctuated narrowly. Due to the approaching month - end, downstream consumption had limited improvement. Some processing enterprises rushed to export, and the market demand was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mainly made on - demand purchases at low prices [5]. 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,850 tons to 156,300 tons compared to the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons. On January 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [5]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data - The table provides data on SMM 1 copper (premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper), Yangshan premium, LME (0 - 3), inventory (LME, SHFE, COMEX), warehouse receipts (SHFE, LME cancellation ratio), arbitrage (CU05 - CU02, CU03 - CU02), and import profit, as well as the Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) from different time points (January 21, 2026; January 20, 2026; January 14, 2026; December 22, 2025) [24][25][26][27]

Group 1 - The core controversy revolves around a significant error in the estimation of copper demand related to AI data centers, initially reported by NVIDIA, which has since been corrected [1][2] - NVIDIA's original claim suggested that a 1 GW data center could require up to 500,000 tons of copper, but this was later clarified to approximately 200 tons based on correct calculations [2][3] - The revised estimates indicate that even with the projected growth of global data centers to about 219 GW by 2030, the copper demand would only be around 44,000 tons, representing less than 0.2% of the current global annual copper production [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the main issue is not about copper shortages but rather the engineering limits of low-voltage power architectures in high-power data centers [4] - The original intent of NVIDIA's article was to highlight the need for transitioning to new power supply solutions, such as 800V high-voltage direct current (HVDC), as traditional systems struggle with increased current and efficiency [4] - Misinterpretations regarding AI's impact on copper resources stemmed from misunderstandings of technical context and unit expressions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential copper shortage due to increasing demand from data centers, but recent findings suggest that the projected copper gap may be overestimated [2][4]. Group 1: Copper Demand Projections - McKinsey estimates that by 2030, global data center capacity demand will reach 219 GW, requiring over 100 million tons of copper, while global copper reserves were only 980 million tons as of last year [4]. - S&P predicts an annual addition of 30 GW capacity in data centers by 2030, translating to a copper demand of approximately 15 million tons, while last year's copper production was only 28.63 million tons [4]. Group 2: Reassessment of Copper Requirements - A recent investigation indicates that NVIDIA's report may have contained a significant error, leading to an exaggerated copper gap. A 1 GW rack should require 200 tons of copper, not the 50,000 tons previously stated [4]. - Thunder Said Energy suggests that the correct figure for 50,000 tons should actually be 50,000 pounds, equivalent to 226 tons, significantly reducing the estimated copper demand for data centers [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Supply - Goldman Sachs reported that the copper spot market is not currently facing a supply shortage and anticipates a slight surplus by 2026, with copper prices expected to average $10,710 per ounce in the first half of this year [5]. - S&P Global notes that high electricity consumption from data centers, the transition to electric vehicles, and the installation of 2 billion air conditioners will drive significant copper demand, projecting an increase from 28 million tons in 2025 to 42 million tons by 2040 [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The U.S. employment data affects the interest - rate cut expectations, leading to a slight increase in copper prices. Copper production shows an increasing trend, and as the demand side is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, the fundamentals limit the rebound space. With the release of U.S. economic data and the approaching of the interest - rate meeting, the trend of copper prices will become clearer [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 18 were 232,000, and the continued jobless claims were 1.957 million, an increase from the previous week. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons and an expected maintenance impact of 48,000 tons. However, some enterprises that underwent maintenance in October are resuming production, and with the increase in copper prices, production enthusiasm is rising, so output is expected to increase. The supply of scrap copper has increased, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. The rise in copper prices has restricted downstream consumption, and except for the power and power battery new - energy sectors, downstream demand is weak. In October 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 134,304 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.8%, and imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved higher, showing strength during the day. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 70 yuan/ton, and in South China was 35 yuan/ton. On November 18, 2025, the LME official price was $10,690/ton, and the spot premium was - $41/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of November 17, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - $41.82/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 58,400 tons, a decrease of 2,522 tons from the previous period. As of November 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 111,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 140,500 tons, an increase of 325 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 389,300 short tons, an increase of 3,221 short tons from the previous period [9].

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Core Insights - HSBC reports that the large accumulation of copper inventory in the U.S. may decrease, weakening the demand for copper in the country [1] - Current COMEX copper inventory has reached a 21-year high due to buyers anticipating larger tariffs on copper imports in the U.S. [1] - HSBC forecasts an average copper price of $4.24 per pound in 2025 and $4.15 per pound in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Freeport's CEO Quirk emphasizes China's significant role as the main driver of copper demand [1] - India is identified as an important emerging market for copper [1]