Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the importance of promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector as a key strategy for improving people's livelihoods and achieving common prosperity [2][4]. Group 1: High-Quality Development Framework - The new framework integrates "promoting high-quality development" of real estate into the broader context of improving people's livelihoods, marking a shift from viewing real estate merely as a tool for economic stimulus to a critical component of national strategies [4]. - The concept of "high-quality development" is multi-dimensional and systematic, focusing on urban development and renewal, and aims to create a robust supply system, rational resource allocation, and sound regulatory frameworks [6]. Group 2: Key Components of New Development Model - The new model includes four main aspects: 1. Improving the housing supply system to ensure clear roles for both affordable and market-based housing, while fostering a professional rental market [6]. 2. Establishing a mechanism linking "people, housing, land, and finance" to balance supply and demand based on population changes [7]. 3. Reforming real estate development, financing, and sales systems to ensure compliance and protect investors [7]. 4. Promoting the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart homes, enhancing standards and operational management throughout the housing lifecycle [7][10]. Group 3: Future Policy Adjustments - Future policy adjustments will reflect three core changes: 1. A comprehensive push for high-quality development that encompasses supply, demand, and operation, shifting focus from new development to optimizing existing resources [12]. 2. Accelerating the formation of a coordinated urban and rural development pattern, enhancing housing demand through urbanization and rural revitalization [13]. 3. Balancing the attributes of public welfare and market functions, ensuring that housing policies remain focused on people's needs while maintaining market vitality [14][15]. Group 4: Significance of High-Quality Development - High-quality development in real estate is crucial for economic growth, enhancing living standards, and ensuring sustainable industry development, transitioning from scale expansion to quality improvement [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical evolution of tariffs as a policy tool, highlighting the lessons learned from past tariff implementations and their impacts on the economy, particularly in the context of the current trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Group 1: Historical Context - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 significantly raised import tax rates, increasing the average tariff level in the U.S. from 13.5% in 1929 to 19.8% in 1933, leading to a 45% decline in nominal GDP and a 67% drop in total exports over four years, with unemployment reaching nearly 25% [1]. - Compared to the 1930s, the current global trade is characterized by international value chains, making the imposition of trade barriers more challenging and likely to disrupt supply chains [4]. Group 2: Current Trade Policies - Starting in 2018, the U.S. initiated multiple rounds of tariffs against China, escalating from $50 billion to $200 billion with a tax rate of 25%, resulting in a weakening of U.S.-China export ties and a temporary "export rush" effect in certain industries [6]. - The 2025 tariff policy under the Trump administration is expected to be more intense, with an average effective tariff rate projected to reach 22.4%, surpassing the levels seen during the Great Depression, and covering a broader range of products from consumer goods to high-tech items [10]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The macroeconomic impact of tariffs is typically gradual, with initial market reactions being severe, leading to a "rush to export" effect, as seen in 2018 when China's exports to the U.S. surged [12]. - In the medium term, as tariffs take effect, profit margins for companies reliant on imported raw materials will be squeezed, leading to reduced capital expenditure and declining consumer confidence [15]. - Long-term effects may include a restructuring of global supply chains as companies seek to mitigate costs and risks, potentially leading to a decrease in U.S.-China trade and a shift towards regionalization [18]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies in high-risk export industries, such as home appliances, automotive, and textiles, should be avoided due to their vulnerability to profit margin compression from tariffs [19]. - Focus should be on brand-name consumer goods with strong pricing power, as these companies can often pass on costs to consumers, mitigating the impact of tariffs [22]. - Industries with localized production capabilities, such as HVAC systems and large appliances, are less sensitive to tariff fluctuations and should be prioritized for investment [23]. - Sectors driven by domestic consumption, like food and beverage, exhibit relative stability and should be considered for medium to long-term investment [24]. - Technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, particularly those with domestic substitution potential, are key areas for investment focus [25]. - Resilient consumer sectors, including low-cost, high-frequency items and elder care products, are expected to perform well despite economic uncertainties [26].