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券商晨会精华:建议寻找下一个阶段基本面边际改善最大的领域提前布局
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 00:05
Market Overview - The market experienced a significant rise last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3800 points and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index increasing over 8%, reaching a three-year high [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 3.36% [1] Analyst Insights - Huatai Securities emphasized the importance of maintaining positions and selecting stocks based on market trends, suggesting that any potential adjustments in the market will likely be shallow [2] - The firm noted that the three pillars of market uptrend—domestic fundamentals, liquidity, and overseas liquidity—are showing positive changes, which may lead to a more sustained market rally [2] - Guojin Securities recommended identifying sectors with the most significant marginal improvements in fundamentals for future investments, particularly in industrial metals and capital goods due to overseas manufacturing recovery [3] - The firm also highlighted opportunities in the insurance sector and domestic demand-related fields, indicating that the recovery of large-cap stocks is just beginning [3] - CITIC Securities projected a continuation of a mid-term slow bull market, stating that current market conditions do not present significant bearish signals [4] - The firm noted that sector rotation remains a prominent market characteristic, suggesting that finding new low-position directions in thriving sectors may offer better short-term value [4]
国金证券:建议寻找下一个阶段基本面边际改善最大的领域提前布局
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 23:59
此外,由于受美联储降息预期回摆的影响,隔夜HIBOR大幅抬升,这对港股形成了一定压制,由于9月 降息或已成定局,考虑到港股今年相对A股的超额已经大幅回吐,A-H市场将重回统一起跑线,企业盈 利变化将成为两地市场表现差异的驱动。 (文章来源:第一财经) 第二,保险的长期资产端将受益于资本回报的见底,其次是券商; 第三,盈利修复之后,内需相关领域也将出现机会,代表大盘蓝筹的沪深300还未能跑赢创业板指,但 是也已在近期的风格切换中开始跑赢国证2000,行情的扩散刚刚开始,A股权重股的修复刚刚开始,关 注:食品饮料,电力设备。 国金证券指出,在市场创10年新高之际,建议寻找下一个阶段基本面边际改善最大的领域提前布局。 第一,海外制造业修复下,实物资产将迎来顺风(工业金属:铜、铝、钢铁、基础化工),以及投资加 速下的资本品(工程机械、专用机械、机械零部件、重卡),中长期应该关注产业链重构带来的投资和 消费两端实物消耗提升的机会; ...
A股分析师前瞻:策略普遍看好行情延续性,这些方向或蓄势待发
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-08-24 12:09
本周各家券商策略较为积极,后续行情的持续性与结构性机会是讨论的焦点。 | | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 | 结论 | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | 华西策略 李立峰 | 沪指创近10年新高,增量资金来自 何方? | 本轮A股牛市行情从"924"演绎至今,增量 资金,在过去三年多来持续增持A股;二是融 迹象显现但仍处于早期阶段,资产荒下,居 | 聚焦新技术、新成长方向 (如国产算力 机器人、AI应用等),辅之以部分大 全融、新消费(如IP经济、口含烟等) | | | | 资金来源广泛:一是险资、养老金等中长期 | | | | | 资资金和私募基金交易持续活跃,外资对A股 | | | | | 关注度也开始升温;三是居民"存款搬家" | | | | | 民资金有望通过ETF、直接持股、公募基金等 | 0 | | | | 渠道持续入市,成为"慢牛"得以延展的关 | | | | | 键动力。 | | | | | 从各类资金情况来看,此轮行情持续到现在 主要的发起者和推动者并非散户;事实上本 | | | | | 轮行情从起步到加速,核心线索都是围绕产 | ...
机构论后市丨此轮行情不是散户市;关注“轮动补涨”机会
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-08-24 10:16
沪指本周累计涨3.49%,深证成指累计涨4.57%,创业板指累计涨5.85%。A股后市怎么走?看看机构怎 么说: ①中信证券:此轮行情并不是散户市 中信证券发文称,从各类资金情况来看,此轮行情持续到现在主要的发起者和推动者并非散户;事实上 本轮行情从起步到加速,核心线索都是围绕产业趋势和业绩;既然都是聪明的钱入场占主导地位,就不 能执迷于类比过往行情走势。随着2020~2021年发行的产品整体步入盈亏平衡区域,市场会有个新旧资 金接力的过程;未来行情的延续需要的是新的配置线索,而不是拘泥于"钱多"和流动性。配置上,建议 继续聚焦资源、创新药、游戏和军工,开始关注化工,逐步增配一些"反内卷+出海"品种,9月消费电子 板块也值得关注。 ②光大证券:市场中长期仍然有望持续上行,或以"轮动补涨"特征为主 光大证券研报指出,展望未来,市场仍然有望继续上行。目前来看,支撑股票市场上涨的逻辑并没有发 生变化,市场估值目前也较为合理,并未出现明显透支。此外,还有一些新的积极因素正在出现,如美 联储降息周期可能会开启、公募资金发行出现回暖。综合来看,市场中长期仍然有望持续上行。当前来 看,本轮行情或许会以"轮动补涨"特征为主, ...
渣打集团(02888):舆情扰动,回调或是加配机会
HTSC· 2025-08-19 07:37
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Standard Chartered Group is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The recent public sentiment disturbance due to allegations against Standard Chartered regarding illegal payments to sanctioned entities has led to a stock price correction, which is viewed as a potential opportunity for increased allocation [1][2] - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term value proposition remains strong, supported by the bank's extensive network and licenses in emerging markets, positioning it well for growth in transaction banking and wealth management [1][3] - The bank's wealth management business is expected to benefit from strong global cross-border asset allocation demand, with a projected double-digit CAGR in wealth management revenue from 2024 to 2029 [1][4] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The target price is set at HKD 164.30, with the current closing price at HKD 139.60, indicating potential upside [1][8] Financial Performance - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is USD 4.33 billion, with a projected PB of 0.85 times [5] - The bank's revenue is expected to grow from USD 19.70 billion in 2024 to USD 22.32 billion in 2027, with a steady increase in net profit margins [11][14] Market Positioning - Standard Chartered has a unique advantage in cross-border business due to its deep integration in emerging markets, particularly in ASEAN, which is a key destination for global industrial transfer [3] - The bank's light capital model helps mitigate the impact of interest rate cuts on revenue, maintaining a low exposure to commercial real estate in Hong Kong [3] Wealth Management Growth - The wealth management segment has seen a 23.1% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with 135,000 new client accounts opened [4] - The bank's strategy includes a diverse product offering that covers high-quality global assets, catering to affluent clients [4]
聚合无界生态,智链产业蓝海 ——招商银行举办产业升级金融服务研讨会
21世纪经济报道· 2025-08-15 08:34
近 年 来 , 国 家 擘 画 " 双 循 环 " 战 略 宏 图 , 通 过 强 化 内 生 动 力 、 拓 展 外 部 空 间 , 破 解 产 业 链 堵 点、断点、痛点,全面锻造产业链的筋骨韧性。研讨会上,复旦大学教授袁志刚发表了题为 《 对 等 关 税 政 策 与 全 球 产 业 链 重 构 》 的 主 题 演 讲 , 深 入 剖 析 全 球 经 济 走 势 和 产 业 链 变 化 趋 势,系统阐述了中国在产业转移与升级变局中面临的挑战、机遇与宏观经济战略应对措施。 我国拥有世界规模最大、门类最全、配套最完备的产业链体系。在全球产业链重构、国内产业快 速转型升级的关键阶段,提升产业链供应链的韧性与安全水平,对于构建新发展格局、推进高质 量发展具有重要意义。 8月1 4日,招商银行在上海临港举办"聚力共链 产业启航"产业升级金融服务研讨会。活动汇 聚"政银产投研"多方力量,邀请了近2 0 0家产业链链主及核心企业代表参与。各方聚焦产业链 发展的核心需求与痛点,旨在搭建金融服务"产业+生态"平台,探索金融赋能产业升级的新模 式、新路径,助力产业链融通发展迈上新台阶。 深度洞察变局, 共筑产业升级金融生态 ...
特朗普上任半年成绩单:把世界谈成了生意,却把美国带进了赌局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 06:30
Group 1: Trade Policy - Trump's tariff policy has been a significant achievement, simplifying global trade negotiations into transactional deals, with tariffs used as leverage [3] - The EU and Japan have agreed to raise average tariffs on products exported to the U.S. from less than 2% to 15%, committing to invest billions in the U.S. over the coming years [3] - The use of tariffs has created a precedent where traditional trade rules are undermined, allowing for arbitrary adjustments based on personal relationships [3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The "Beautiful Big Law" has passed, projecting an additional $3 trillion in deficits over the next decade, pushing the total U.S. debt towards $40 trillion [5] - The strategy involves using tariffs to create an "industrial wall" while distributing consumer benefits through increased deficits, which may lead to global economic uncertainty [5] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Regulation - New legislation regarding cryptocurrencies mandates stablecoins to be backed by "safe assets," while leaving regulatory gaps that could benefit Trump's family's digital assets [7] - The lack of inquiry into potential conflicts of interest in Congress highlights a shift in the balance of power, with the executive branch gaining unilateral legislative authority [7] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Despite a lack of immediate alarm in economic fundamentals, there are signs of potential recession as non-farm payroll data has shown weakness, and the second-quarter GDP growth was 3% [9] - The annual tariff revenue of $300 billion has created a false sense of security among importers and consumers, masking the long-term impacts of tariff policies [9] Group 5: Financial Risks - The proliferation of unregulated cryptocurrencies poses significant financial risks, with leverage exceeding that of historical private banking practices [11] - The potential for inflation due to tariff wars could force the Federal Reserve into a difficult position, impacting the national debt significantly [11] Group 6: Institutional Integrity - The erosion of institutional checks and balances is concerning, as the President has bypassed Congress to adjust tariffs, undermining the separation of powers [11] - The normalization of declaring "national emergencies" for policy changes raises questions about the integrity of the decision-making process [11] Group 7: International Relations - Global tolerance for U.S. unilateralism is nearing a breaking point, with discussions in the EU about automatic retaliatory tariffs and Japan accelerating yen internationalization [13] - Political instability in the U.S. could lead to a backlash against tariffs, potentially fragmenting the global trade landscape [13]
京东要做灶王爷?
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-25 01:42
Group 1 - JD.com plans to open 10,000 "Seven Fresh Kitchen" stores nationwide, focusing on freshly cooked meals with a cash investment of 1 billion yuan and recruiting 1,000 signature dish partners [1][2] - The company aims to leverage its established supply chain capabilities to redefine the food delivery market, addressing issues such as high platform fees and food safety concerns [2][5] - By collaborating with major food companies for centralized sourcing and processing, JD.com intends to reduce food waste and lower costs, with waste rates potentially dropping below 5% [3][4] Group 2 - The introduction of robotic cooking aims to enhance efficiency and standardization in food preparation, although it raises questions about taste consistency and user satisfaction [5][6][7] - JD.com's "dish partner" model seeks to empower chefs while potentially shifting control of the cooking process to the platform, which may redefine the value of chefs in the industry [8][10] - The strategy involves a combination of centralized kitchens, community stores, and robotic cooking to gradually shift control from chefs and restaurant owners to JD.com [9][11] Group 3 - The scalability of this model across different regions is uncertain, as local tastes, supply chain logistics, and regulatory environments vary significantly [12][13] - Competitors like Meituan and Ele.me are also innovating in the food delivery space, utilizing local merchant flexibility and technology to respond to regional demands [14][15][16] - JD.com's ambitious plan may face challenges in execution speed and adaptability to regional differences, raising questions about its long-term viability in the food service industry [17]
看,链博会上“硬核”亮相的“中国制造”
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao· 2025-07-22 06:44
Core Insights - The article highlights the significant advancements and achievements in China's clean energy supply chain, showcasing its role in global energy transition and sustainability efforts [1][6]. Industry Overview - China's clean energy investment has reached $625 billion, accounting for one-third of global investments, with the country leading in new energy vehicle sales, solar, and wind power installations for ten consecutive years [1][2]. - Over 80% of global solar components and 70% of wind power equipment are manufactured in China, indicating the country's comprehensive clean energy industrial chain [1]. Key Developments - Major companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and Sinopec are pivotal in stabilizing the energy supply chain, with CNOOC achieving a 92% localization rate in core equipment for deep-sea oil and gas development [2]. - Sinopec has established the world's largest green hydrogen project in Xinjiang, with an annual capacity of 20,000 tons, demonstrating advancements in flexible hydrogen production technology [2]. Technological Innovations - Innovations such as the 5 MW chemical chain combustion system by Dongfang Electric can reduce carbon capture costs by two-thirds, enhancing the economic viability of clean coal utilization [3][4]. - Sinopec's advancements in hydrogen production have led to a 30% reduction in manufacturing costs for alkaline electrolysis cells, making green hydrogen more accessible [3]. Global Collaboration - CNOOC's overseas operations span over 40 countries, establishing a robust energy network that supports energy security in the Asia-Pacific region [4][5]. - The Belt and Road Initiative has facilitated green energy project collaborations with over 100 countries, contributing to local energy shortages and promoting global energy transition [5][6]. Future Directions - The clean energy supply chain is expected to focus on enhancing hydrogen storage and transportation technologies, improving system collaboration, and expanding high-level openness to international standards [6].
印尼效仿中国赌镍价,从6%飙到74%,终难逃亡崩盘结局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-19 04:28
Core Insights - Indonesia experienced a complete economic bubble cycle in just four years, with its global nickel market share soaring from 6% to 74%, ultimately leading to a collapse [1][4] Group 1: Indonesia's Nickel Industry Growth - In 2020, Indonesia, holding 60% of global nickel reserves, banned nickel ore exports to attract global manufacturers, technology, and capital [3] - The rapid expansion of Indonesia's refined nickel market share from 6% to 74% was characterized as "madness," generating over $30 billion in annual export revenue [4] - Indonesia's annual nickel production reached 2.2 million tons, with an additional 1.5 million tons of smelting capacity under construction, leading to an oversupply situation [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Decline - The imbalance in supply and demand resulted in a significant drop in nickel prices, currently around $14,000 per ton, nearing the cost line for many Indonesian smelters [7] - The once-thriving nickel smelting industry in Indonesia is now facing layoffs and production halts due to the price collapse [7] Group 3: China's Strategic Response - China's demand for nickel has shifted due to changes in electric vehicle battery technology, with a growing preference for lithium iron phosphate batteries that require less nickel [9] - During the price drop, China strategically accumulated high-quality primary nickel as a reserve, showcasing its proactive approach in the supply chain [11] - Chinese companies have advanced recycling technologies, allowing over 95% of nickel to be extracted from waste, reducing reliance on new mines [12] Group 4: Environmental and Technological Challenges - Indonesian smelting plants are still using coal-fired furnaces, resulting in high carbon emissions, which poses significant environmental challenges [13] - The experiences of Indonesia highlight that resource ownership does not equate to control over the supply chain; technological capabilities are crucial for success [15][20] Group 5: Lessons for Other Nations - Other countries attempting to replicate China's model, like Vietnam and Australia, face challenges due to a lack of mature refining technologies, leading to continued dependence on China [14] - The global competition has shifted from resource acquisition to technological ecosystems and supply chain resilience, as illustrated by Indonesia's nickel price collapse [19]