机构：国投证券 研究员：李奔/冯俊曦 UBT251 海外授权彰显研发实力，创新药管线有望陆续兑现。 联邦制药具备从上游中间体6-APA、青霉素工业盐，到半合成青霉素、β-内酰胺酶抑制剂、头孢、碳青 霉烯类原料药，再到抗生素制剂（人用+动保）的全产业链布局。 （1）目前公司为全球青霉素上游龙头厂商，我们认为供给格局短期内变化不大，需求端来看，青霉素 制剂为刚性需求有望驱动上游中间体/原料药市场稳健增长，龙头厂商有望持续受益；制剂方面，从抗 生素集采对公司的影响方面来看，公司展现出一定的韧性和应对风险的能力，并构建出以兽用抗生素为 基础的动保业务增长极。 （2）胰岛素方面，第二轮胰岛素集采续约后，公司全线产品均以A 类中选，相对首轮的降价幅度较 小，采购基础量同比增加52.5%，胰岛素目前已展现出良好恢复趋势。且公司在降糖及减重领域持续深 耕，基本实现全品类布局，除过集采中选的二、三代胰岛素外，布局德谷胰岛素注射液（四代胰岛 素）、德谷门冬双胰岛素混合注射液（双胰岛素类似物）、德谷胰岛素利拉鲁肽注射液（胰岛素+GLP- 1 复方）、超长效胰岛素，以及GLP-1 受体激动剂，如利拉鲁肽注射液、司美格鲁肽注射液、UB ...

Core Viewpoint - Tonghua Dongbao's performance faced short-term pressure in 2024 due to insulin price cuts, strategic termination of R&D projects, and litigation costs, but showed strong recovery in Q1 2025 with double-digit revenue growth driven by increased product sales and market share [1][2][3][8] Group 1: 2024 Performance Challenges - The net profit decline in 2024 was primarily due to three factors: insulin price adjustments leading to revenue shrinkage, strategic termination of the soluble double insulin injection project resulting in a profit reduction of approximately 215 million yuan, and litigation costs of about 61.31 million yuan [2] - Despite these challenges, the company's market share in insulin continued to rise, reaching 43.7%, maintaining its position as the leader in the domestic market [2] Group 2: Q1 2025 Recovery - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 652 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.97%, indicating a recovery to levels similar to Q1 2023 [3] - Key factors for this recovery included successful continuation of insulin procurement contracts, with a signed volume of 45 million units, and a significant increase in the number of hospitals carrying the company's products [3][4] Group 3: Product and Market Development - The company experienced a 123% increase in overall insulin product sales, with the Aspart series seeing a remarkable 260% year-on-year growth, optimizing the product structure [3] - The overseas revenue reached 58 million yuan in Q1 2025, exceeding 50% of the total overseas revenue for 2024 [4] Group 4: R&D and Innovation - The company increased R&D investment to 450 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 7.15%, with R&D expenses accounting for 22.42% of revenue [5] - Several products are in advanced clinical stages, including GLP-1 products and gout medications, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [5] Group 5: Global Expansion Strategy - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with progress in product registration in various countries, including Uzbekistan and the EU, and a tailored "going global" strategy [6][7] - The strategy includes exporting raw materials and establishing partnerships for market development, focusing on insulin and GLP-1 products in emerging markets [7] Group 6: Future Outlook - 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for the company, with expected benefits from insulin procurement contracts and hospital access expansion, alongside long-term growth from innovative drug pipelines and international market expansion [8] - The combination of a solid insulin base, innovative drugs in the metabolic field, and a clear global strategy positions the company for sustainable returns for investors [8]

Core Viewpoint - Tonghua Dongbao reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to adverse factors such as the impact of centralized procurement and the termination of R&D projects, but showed signs of recovery in early 2025 with a revenue increase [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.66% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 43 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit loss of 9 million yuan [1] - For the first half of 2024, revenue was 740 million yuan, while the second half saw a revenue of 1.27 billion yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 71.55% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 10.17% year-on-year [1] Market Expansion - The new round of centralized procurement accelerated the market entry and volume growth of Tonghua Dongbao's insulin products, with significant new hospital admissions: approximately 1,400 for glargine insulin, 3,000 for aspart insulin, and 5,000 for premixed aspart insulin [1][2] - The total signed volume for insulin products in the latest procurement round reached approximately 45 million units, marking a substantial increase compared to the previous round [2] R&D and Innovation - The company is advancing its core pipeline, with promising clinical data for its GLP-1/GIP dual-target receptor agonist (THDBH120) and successful completion of key clinical trials for other innovative products [3] - The R&D expenses accounted for 22.42% of revenue in 2024, indicating a continued commitment to high R&D investment [4] - The company is expanding its treatment areas beyond diabetes to include gout and hyperuricemia, while exploring products with multiple indications such as glucose reduction and weight loss [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to experience a commercial explosion of several key products between 2025 and 2027, creating a positive growth pattern of stable growth from existing products and rapid breakthroughs from new products [3]