Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Municipal Government has released a plan to optimize housing consumption and improve housing supply, including the introduction of a "mortgage transfer with lien" policy for housing provident fund loans [1][4]. Group 1: Housing Supply and Demand - The plan emphasizes prioritizing residential land supply near subway stations and employment hubs, which is expected to better meet the housing needs of buyers and assist developers in creating desirable housing [4]. - The housing provident fund will play a crucial role in supporting buyers by allowing them to withdraw funds for down payments while applying for housing loans [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Implementation and Impact - Over 150 adjustments to housing provident fund policies have been made across various cities this year, with over 30 cities implementing policies allowing the use of provident fund for down payments, which will lower the barriers for homebuyers [5]. - More than 20 cities have introduced policies related to "mortgage transfer with lien" for housing provident fund loans, indicating a trend that may extend to major cities like Beijing, enhancing the liquidity of second-hand housing transactions [5][6]. Group 3: Future Expectations and Innovations - The optimization of land supply and housing provident fund policies in Beijing is expected to stimulate housing demand and serve as a model for policy adjustments in other cities [6]. - The plan also encourages the development of smart community services and integrated living solutions, aiming to create a "15-minute convenient living circle" for residents [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - New and second-hand housing transactions continue to face downward pressure, highlighting the necessity for policy intervention [4][5] - The Beijing government has emphasized optimizing housing supply and enhancing consumption through a new action plan, focusing on land supply and housing fund policies [3][8] - The report anticipates that July will be a critical period for policy announcements, with the real estate sector entering a phase of policy-driven market dynamics [10] Summary by Sections Policy Tracking - The Beijing government issued a plan to boost consumption, aligning with previous housing policies, focusing on optimizing land supply and enhancing the housing supply system [3][8] - The plan includes measures to support housing fund withdrawals for down payments and promote smart community developments [3][8] Weekly Data Tracking - New housing transactions in 30 major cities reached 1.37 million square meters in the week ending July 11, down 20% year-on-year and 48% month-on-month [4][9] - Second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities were 1.43 million square meters, reflecting a 12.8% year-on-year decline [4][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and well-structured land reserves, such as Poly Developments [6][21] - It also recommends monitoring top intermediary firms benefiting from active second-hand housing transactions, like I Love My Home [6][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a new consumption-boosting plan introduced by Beijing, while both new and second-hand housing transactions have shown a month-on-month decline [1][8] - The real estate sector has outperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index rising by 6.12% compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of 5.3% [5][13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 6.12%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.82%, indicating strong sector performance [5][13] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of July 4-10, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 25,620 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% but a month-on-month decline of 36%. The total transaction area was 2.092 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 18% and a month-on-month decrease of 54.2% [6][20] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,990 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 10% and a month-on-month decline of 6.7%. The total transaction area was 1.692 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.4% [6][38] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 187.848 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a depletion cycle of 142.6 weeks [6][51] 3. Company News - China Merchants Shekou reported a signed sales area of 695,000 square meters and a sales amount of 21.748 billion yuan in June 2025. For the first half of 2025, the cumulative signed sales area was 3.35 million square meters, with a total sales amount of 88.894 billion yuan [17][19] - Gemdale Group announced a signed area of 262,000 square meters in June 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 41.39%, with a signed amount of 3.1 billion yuan, down 53.24% year-on-year [17][19] - Huaxia Happiness expects a net profit loss of between 5.5 billion and 7.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 4.849 billion yuan in the same period last year [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Municipal Government has released a plan to enhance housing consumption by optimizing housing supply and implementing a "mortgage transfer with collateral" policy for housing provident fund loans [1][4]. Group 1: Housing Supply Optimization - The plan prioritizes the supply of residential land near subway stations and employment-intensive areas, aiming to better meet the housing needs of buyers [4]. - The housing supply system will be improved by integrating "guaranteed + market" housing supply mechanisms [1]. Group 2: Housing Provident Fund Policies - The plan aims to enhance the role of the housing provident fund by allowing contributors to withdraw funds for down payments while applying for housing loans [4]. - Over 150 adjustments to housing provident fund policies have been made across various cities this year, including major cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou [5]. - More than 30 cities have introduced policies allowing the use of housing provident fund withdrawals for down payments, which is expected to lower the threshold for homebuyers [5]. Group 3: Market Impact and Future Expectations - The optimization of housing supply and provident fund policies in Beijing is expected to stimulate housing consumption and serve as a model for policy adjustments in other cities [6]. - Future adjustments may include increasing loan limits, supporting withdrawals for down payments, extending repayment periods, and enhancing support for non-local contributors and flexible employment [6]. - The plan also encourages the development of smart community services and integrated living solutions, aiming for a comprehensive "15-minute convenient living circle" [6].