能让李嘉诚低头的是它，吞下乌克兰国家资产的还是它。 你熟知的超级资本巨头，从苹果、微软、英伟达，到中国的腾讯、宁德时代、美的，背后都有它的踪 迹。 全球能跟它的资产规模比一比的，只有中国和美国的GDP。连李嘉诚那种级别的富豪，在它面前都得 低头。 乌克兰现在打仗，国家的地盘和能源项目，都被它盯上了，随时准备接手。这公司为啥这么牛？ 风险的主宰 一切的起点，是拉里·芬克（LarryFink），一个出生于50年代的犹太精英。他大学时主修政治学，最初 的梦想是踏入政坛。 但他很快领悟到，现代社会真正的权力核心，不在议会，而在资本的流动中。于是，他转身投向了华尔 街。 芬克的过人之处在于，他不仅是资本的玩家，更是金融工具的发明家之一。他参与创造了一种后来震惊 世界的东西——抵押贷款证券（MBS）。它能把银行的房贷打包成一张张证券卖出去，让银行瞬间回 笼资金，然后继续疯狂放贷。杠杆，被以前所未有的方式放大了。 正是这个芬克参与设计的"创新"，为2008年那场席卷全球的金融危机埋下了最深的引信。当高盛、摩 根、雷曼兄弟这些百年老店在自己制造的废墟中哀嚎时，最懂MBS的贝莱德却几乎毫发无损。 危机，成了贝莱德的加冕礼。美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential adjustment of its asset portfolio could lead to the purchase of nearly $2 trillion in short-term Treasury bills over the next two years, significantly benefiting the Treasury Department as it issues more short-term debt to cover fiscal deficits [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Asset Management - Bank of America analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may adjust its investment portfolio to better match its liabilities, thereby reducing interest rate risk and shortening the duration of its liabilities [3]. - The adjustment could create a new source of demand in the short-term market, as the estimated $1 trillion in reinvestments from mortgage-backed securities and maturing long-term Treasuries would align closely with the Treasury's short-term debt issuance [3][4]. - If the Federal Reserve reallocates nearly 50% of its assets to short-term Treasuries, it would better match its short-term liabilities and absorb fluctuations in the Treasury's cash balance [3]. Group 2: Treasury Department's Debt Issuance - The estimated supply of short-term Treasuries is projected to be $825 billion for fiscal year 2026 and $1.067 trillion for fiscal year 2027, assuming the Treasury maintains its long-term bond auction size until October 2026 [3]. - This transition is expected to ensure strong market demand for short-term government debt, alleviating concerns about liquidity issues arising from large-scale Treasury issuance [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Current Operations - Despite currently engaging in balance sheet reduction, recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate discussions about asset portfolio adjustments, with meeting minutes expected to be released on August 20 [4]. - The Federal Reserve's net income has been negative due to higher interest payments on reserves compared to income from its bond holdings, creating operational pressure [4]. Group 4: Strategies for Increasing Short-Term Treasury Holdings - The Federal Reserve can quickly increase its short-term Treasury holdings through several methods, including reinvesting maturing mortgage-backed securities, increasing reserve balances, and reinvesting all maturing Treasury coupon payments [5]. - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to conclude its balance sheet reduction by December 2025 and immediately begin adjusting its reinvestment strategy thereafter [6].

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the Federal Reserve's asset portfolio could potentially provide the U.S. Treasury with $2 trillion in funding over the next two years, primarily through the purchase of short-term Treasury bills [3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Asset Portfolio Adjustment - According to Bank of America, if the Federal Reserve adjusts its bond portfolio structure, it may purchase nearly $2 trillion in short-term Treasury bills, which could cover all short-term debt issuance by the Treasury during the same period [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to realign its asset portfolio to better match its liabilities, thereby reducing interest rate risk and negative equity while shortening the duration of its liabilities [3][4]. - If the Federal Reserve reinvests the proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities and long-term Treasury bonds into short-term Treasury bills, it could create a new source of demand in the short-end market [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Treasury and Market Demand - This shift is anticipated to ensure strong market demand for short-term government debt, alleviating concerns about liquidity shortages due to large-scale Treasury issuance [4]. - The estimated supply of short-term Treasury bills is projected to be $825 billion for fiscal year 2026 and $1.067 trillion for fiscal year 2027, assuming the Treasury maintains its long-term bond auction size until October 2026 [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Current Operations - The Federal Reserve is currently in a quantitative tightening phase, but recent comments from policymakers suggest discussions about asset portfolio adjustments may have occurred during the July FOMC meeting [4]. - The Dallas Fed's research indicates that matching asset and liability durations can effectively reduce income volatility, while a diversified asset portfolio can mitigate concentration risks [5]. Group 4: Future Expectations - Bank of America analysts expect the Federal Reserve to end its balance sheet reduction by December 2025 and subsequently begin adjusting its reinvestment strategy [6].