智通财经APP获悉，对于怀疑美国股市在经历新一轮大涨之势后还能上涨多少的那些立场较谨慎的华尔街机构投资者们来说，屡创历史新高的美国股 票市场的一个愈发占据主导性质的非机构力量仍然明显偏于看涨立场。这些自2025年4月全球股市罕见暴跌以来为美股强劲的长期牛市提供重大且持续 的增量看涨驱动力的投资者们，并不像历史数据所显示的那样归功于各大机构资金，而是基本属于"散户型投资者"。 "市场似乎更多地由资金流动而非估值驱动，因此——只要散户投资者们仍然非常愿意并能够持续将资金投入股票市场，这对美股市场来说无疑是个非 常积极的牛市信号。"来自Interactive Brokers的首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示。 截至目前，这一信号依然是绿色的积极增长颜色。自2026年年初以来(累计四个交易日统计数据)，散户投资者们已买入价值约101亿美元的美国股票 ——主要通过交易所交易基金(即指数型ETF)——这一数据远超过去12个月每周五个交易日约65亿美元的平均股票买入水平，摩根大通的一项统计数据 显示。 这波新一轮股票买入浪潮跟随了2025年散户型投资者们的无比辉煌表现。根据摩根大通的统计数据，2025年全年度的散户 ...

Core Insights - The concept of "deposit migration" has gained significant attention in the financial market this year, with expectations that residents will shift funds from low-yield assets like deposits to higher-yield investments such as stocks as interest rates decline and the stock market recovers [1] - The government is hopeful that the "wealth effect" from financial markets can enhance consumer spending and confidence, as reflected in the recent "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations emphasizing the construction of a strong financial nation [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Data indicates that "deposit migration into the market" is indeed occurring, with a decline in residents' demand deposits and an increase in non-bank deposits, suggesting liquidity is moving towards capital markets [2] - From July to August, residents' demand deposits decreased by 1.3 trillion yuan, while non-bank deposits increased by 3.3 trillion yuan, indicating a potential flow of deposits into capital markets [2] - The M1 money supply is rising, showing that previously time-bound deposits are being "activated" and could enter the market as a backup force [2] Group 2: Investor Behavior - The new A-share accounts opened from June to September primarily come from high-net-worth individuals, with ordinary residents showing lower participation levels [2] - The number of new A-share accounts on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose from 1.65 million to 2.94 million between June and September, but remains significantly lower than the peak of 6.85 million in October 2024 and 7.2 million in April 2015, indicating that the current market drive is more from high-net-worth individuals rather than retail investors [2] Group 3: Financial Inclusion - To truly harness the "wealth effect" for high-quality development, it is essential to enhance the inclusiveness of the financial system, allowing more ordinary residents to participate and benefit from capital market growth [4] - Financial markets need to focus on "breadth" and "inclusivity," encouraging financial institutions to develop investment tools aimed at the general public, such as low-fee, low-threshold mutual funds, index ETFs, and target-date funds [4] - Promoting automated investment options and simplifying investment education can help lower barriers for ordinary investors, thereby enhancing their confidence in consumption and investment [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve faces challenges of weak employment and rising inflation, leading to a cautious monetary policy stance regarding interest rate cuts [1][3] - The recent rate cut of 25 basis points marks the first reduction since December, indicating a shift in U.S. monetary policy after months of observation [1][3] - Future expectations suggest the Fed may continue to lower rates, potentially reaching around 3.5%, which could signal recession risks if rates decline further [3][4] Group 2: Stock Market Dynamics - Recent stock market gains are attributed to improved corporate earnings, particularly driven by investments in artificial intelligence [2][6] - The decline in interest rates has reduced corporate financing costs, boosting valuations alongside earnings growth, providing strong market support [2][9] - Despite consumer confidence weakening, institutional investors remain focused on fundamental factors, leading to optimistic projections for the S&P 500 index to reach 7000 points by year-end [8][9] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Sentiment - Consumer confidence has shown signs of weakening, with many retail investors becoming more cautious, although they continue to invest in index ETFs [8] - The job market's deterioration and rising credit defaults indicate increasing financial pressure on lower-income groups, affecting their investment behavior [8][9] - The ongoing focus on AI-related investments suggests a broader market trend, with valuations supported by actual earnings growth, although potential risks remain if earnings do not keep pace [7][9]