【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：宏观向好预期仍存，需求表现一般 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 788.6 元/吨，基差 48.1 元/吨， 基差变化不大；铁矿 5-9 价差 16 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 11 元。 二、基本面梳理 节前发运受到天气影响，目前已经恢复，春节期间没有明显扰动，没有意外 扰动的情况下供应端仍偏宽松，关注天气对发运到港节奏的扰动；需求端铁水产 量边际回升，刚需仍旧偏稳，节前仍有钢厂生产事故发生，可能影响节后铁水复 产节奏，关注节后需求支撑力度。库存方面，整体库存压力仍在积累，节前市场 情绪走弱，盘面表现承压，节后即将召开全国两会，关注市场情绪变化。 整体而言，库存压力仍在积累，供应端仍存天气扰动预期，当前市场对节 后需求预期一般，但盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，节后即将召开两会，宏观预 期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内维持窄幅震荡，收于 740.5 元/吨， 较前一个交易日收盘价下跌-5.5 元/吨，跌幅-0.74%，成交 22 万手，持仓量 51.9 万手，增仓 2.4 万手 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a weakening trend in the short - term after breaking key levels, but the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The futures contracts present a back structure and positive basis with futures at a discount [1][5] - The overall policy environment in the domestic market in Q1 is warm, which is one of the core logics for being bullish on Q1 risk assets. Overseas, Kevin Warsh's nomination for the new Fed chair is expected to have limited impact on the market, and investors should also focus on the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 768.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 1.66% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 332,000 lots, the open interest was 525,000 lots, and the funds on hold were 8.878 billion yuan. The short - term trend is weak after breaking key levels [1] - Spot prices of mainstream port varieties and swaps declined slightly. The PB powder at Qingdao Port dropped 9 yuan to 775 yuan, the Super Special powder dropped 9 yuan to 660 yuan, and the main swap was 100.75 (- 1.4) US dollars/ton [1] - The basis of the PB powder at Qingdao Port was 44.1 yuan/ton, showing a slight contraction. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 17.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts presented a back structure and positive basis, but were slightly weak in the short - term [1] Fundamental梳理 - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, mainly due to the obvious recovery of Brazilian shipments. The arrivals continued to decline, and there were expected disruptions on the supply side due to weather. On the demand side, pig iron production decreased slightly, the steel mill profitability weakened, the rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated as the Spring Festival approached. The support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses [2] - Port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, steel mill inventory increased significantly, and the overall inventory pressure was still building up [2] Macro层面 - Domestically, the expectation of positive policies continues as the macro - mainline. There is a growing expectation that policies in Q1 will strengthen to achieve an economic "good start" in the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with a warm overall policy environment [4] - Overseas, Kevin Warsh's nomination for the new Fed chair is expected to have limited market impact. His monetary policy stance is "supporting interest rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction", and he is considered a hawkish figure. Investors should also pay attention to the high - uncertainty risks of the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [4] Viewpoint总结 - In terms of the iron ore fundamentals, the arrivals decreased, reducing the supply pressure. The rigid demand on the demand side was stable. Although the port inventory was still accumulating, it was gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions were not prominent, but the futures were at a discount under the back structure and positive basis. The short - term trend was weak after breaking key levels [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market is currently in a state of weak adjustment. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. With the futures contract in a back structure and positive basis, the futures are at a discount. In the short - term, it shows a slightly weak oscillation, but the overall downside space is limited [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Price**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to fluctuate narrowly during the day, closing at 794 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton or 2.22% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 396,000 lots, the open interest was 616,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.766 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term [1]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of mainstream port spot varieties, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port and Super Special powder, both dropped by 8 yuan. The price of the main swap contract was 104.65 (-1.35) US dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 841.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 47.2 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly widened. The iron ore 2 - 5 spread was 16 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 17.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The shipping is relatively stable. There may be hurricane and rainfall disturbances in Australia and Brazil. The high - volume shipments in the early stage are arriving at ports one after another. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather disturbances [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and the rigid demand was still supported. Steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream was strong [2]. - **Inventory**: The port continued to accumulate inventory, the berthing inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory also accumulated. The overall inventory pressure was still building up. The downstream replenishment demand and market sentiment supported the futures and spot prices [2]. Macro - level - **Overseas**: Consumption provides support, inflation declines, and the Federal Reserve maintains a wait - and - see attitude. The US economy is in a "light to moderate" expansion range, with regional performance differentiation. Employment is mainly for filling vacancies, and labor employment is relatively stable. Price pressure has generally eased, but there are still differences in tariff - related categories [4]. - **Domestic**: Incremental policies are continuously introduced to ensure a good start. The current fundamental reality is still in the off - season, but the incremental policies issued since the fourth quarter have entered a critical period of implementation. The incremental policy statements and the implementation of early - batch projects since January are also expected to continue. The central bank announced a 900 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on January 15 [4].