【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：商品情绪走弱，期现价格承压 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡偏弱，收于 768.5 元/吨，较 前一个交易日收盘价下跌-13 元/吨，跌幅-1.66%，成交 33.2 万手，持仓量 52.5 万手，沉淀资金 88.78 亿。短期破位之后，呈现一定偏弱。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 775 跌-9，超特粉 660 跌- 9，掉期主力 100.75(-1.4)美元/吨。现货、掉期价格小幅回落。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 812.6 元/吨，基差 44.1 元/吨， 基差小幅收缩；铁矿 5-9 价差 17.5 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 10 元，铁矿期货合约呈 现 back 结构+正基差，但短期稍显破位偏弱。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运环比增加，主要是巴西发运明显恢复；本期到港继续走弱， 前期发运下降传导至到港，由于天气影响供给端存扰动预期；需求端，铁水产 量环比略降，钢厂盈利率有所走弱，刚需偏稳，春节临近钢厂补库加速，随着 补库推进，对价格的支撑可能逐渐弱化。库存方面，港口继 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：下游累库，刚需支撑有所转弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内窄幅震荡，收于 781.5 元/吨，较 前一个交易日收盘价有所小幅上涨+4 元/吨，涨幅+0.51%，成交 24.1 万手，持 仓量 51.6 万手，沉淀资金 88.66 亿。短期维持窄幅震荡，关注下方支撑 775 附 近进一步测试。 库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预期，节后需求存不确定性，现 实方面供需两端仍有待验证，关注市场情绪变化。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 三、宏观层面 国内宏观层面，延续积极政策预期作为宏观主线的判断。从政策端的变化 看，一季度政策加力实现"十五五"开局之年的经济"开门红"的预期在逐渐 走强，整体政策环境偏暖，这也是我们看多一季度风险资产的核心逻辑之一。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 783 跌+2，超特粉 668 跌 +2，掉期主力 102.6(-0.2)美元/吨。现货坚挺、掉期价格小幅回落。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market has a slightly weakening trend with the futures contract showing a back structure and positive basis, and the overall disk is slightly weak in oscillation. The supply pressure eases due to reduced arrivals, and the demand side has stable rigid demand. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated weakly during the day, closing at 777.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 357,000 lots, the open interest was 519,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.875 billion yuan. It shows a short - term weakening oscillation [1]. - Spot prices: The mainstream varieties of port spot, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, decreased by 4 to 791 yuan, and Super Special powder decreased by 4 to 678 yuan. The main swap price was 101.95 (-0.85) US dollars/ton. The spot is firm, and the swap price slightly declined [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price is 830.1 yuan/ton, and the basis is 52.6 yuan/ton, with a slight expansion of the basis. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore is 17.5 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts is 11 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts present a back structure and a positive basis, showing a short - term breakdown and a weakened oscillation [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased slightly, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries still declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and there are expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The short - term supply pressure eases, but the inventory pressure is still increasing [2]. - Demand: The molten iron production decreased slightly, the steel mill profitability weakened, the rigid demand was relatively stable, the steel mill replenishment speed accelerated, and the steel mill inventory increased rapidly. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, the steel mill inventory increased significantly, the replenishment speed accelerated as the Spring Festival approached, and the total inventory pressure was still accumulating [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic macro: This week continues the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The domestic demand recovery rhythm is still slow, the price remains low, the upstream improvement is limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the medium - and long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises is weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools are still being implemented, and the macro - environment is mainly for support. The market still needs to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [4]. - Overseas macro: The US consumption is still resilient, but the income growth slows down, the savings rate is at a low level, and consumption more depends on credit and employment stability, with weakening internal impetus. The core inflation continues to cool down, the commodity - end pressure eases, but the stickiness of service items still exists. The market trading focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro - environment is still conducive to risk assets maintaining resilience, but policy uncertainty increases, and asset pricing differentiation intensifies [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The iron ore fundamentals show that the new shipments on the supply side are gradually decreasing, the rigid demand on the demand side is relatively stable, and although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually being transferred to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the futures contracts are in a back structure + positive basis with a futures discount, showing a certain resistance to decline in the short - term. The overall downside space of the market is limited, and the recent trend is slightly stronger in a volatile manner [5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main iron ore futures contract strengthened during the day, closing at 795 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan/ton or +1.08% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 229,000 lots, the open interest was 569,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.949 billion yuan. The futures stopped falling and rebounded near the predicted support level of 780, and will continue to rebound in a volatile and slightly stronger manner in the short - term [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, Qingdao Port PB powder, rose by +5 to 802, and Super Special powder rose by +5 to 680. The swap main contract was at 104.65 (+1) US dollars/ton. Both spot and swap prices rebounded [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 836.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 41.8 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 17.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 13 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, which is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and is in a volatile and slightly stronger state [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with significant decreases in Australia and Brazil and an increase in non - mainstream countries. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and there are expectations of supply disturbances due to weather [2] - Demand: The molten iron output increased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, the rigid demand was relatively stable, and steel mills were in the process of restocking, but the enthusiasm was still weak. There was strong game between upstream and downstream. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of restocking demand [2] - Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, the inventory under berthing increased, and steel mill inventory also accumulated but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The total inventory pressure was still building up [2] Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: According to the December Federal Reserve Beige Book and the latest data from the US Department of Labor, the US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the December CPI year - on - year dropped to 2.7%, the core CPI month - on - month was 0.2% lower than expected, and the weakening of commodity prices indicated that the tariff transmission had reached its peak. Consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, with the high - income group maintaining resilience and the low - income group becoming more price - sensitive. Attention should be paid to the upcoming GDP and inflation data [4] - Domestic: In 2025, the domestic consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%. The service retail sales increased by 5.5% (1.7 percentage points faster than commodity retail), and its proportion in the overall retail increased. The final consumption contributed 52% to economic growth (a 5 - percentage - point increase). Service consumption was vibrant, with double - digit growth in retail sales in cultural and tourism fields, and movie box office increased by more than 20%. New - type consumption was active, with online retail sales increasing by 8.6%. Green and silver - haired economies became new growth points. In commodity consumption, the retail sales of cultural office supplies, furniture, and household appliances increased by double - digits. In 2026, consumption upgrading, policy effectiveness, and a better environment will support the stable growth of consumption [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The iron ore market is currently in a state of slight weakness in the short - term, but the overall downside space is limited. The supply side of new shipments is gradually decreasing, the demand side is slightly recovering, and the inventory in ports is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis with futures at a discount [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to decline weakly, closing at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 363,000 lots, the open interest was 587,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.187 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 10 yuan to 794 yuan, and Super Special powder dropped 10 yuan to 670 yuan. The swap main contract was 104.2 US dollars/ton (- 0.75 US dollars). The spot and swap prices declined again [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 823.7 yuan/ton, and the basis was 34.2 yuan/ton, with a significant contraction. The spread between iron ore contracts 2 - 5 was 17.5 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 18 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis. Although it showed a weak shock in the short - term, the overall downside space might be limited [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with a significant decline in Australia and Brazil and an increase in non - mainstream countries. The current arrival volume decreased month - on - month, and there were expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. The arrival of the first batch of iron ore from Mangu increased the expected supply pressure [2]. - Demand: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and the rigid demand was still supported. Steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream was strong. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron and the release rhythm of replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [2]. - Inventory: Ports continued to accumulate inventory, the inventory under pressure increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still accumulating. The inventory of steel mills was still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the CPI in December decreased to 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. Consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, and industrial production rebounded unexpectedly. The Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest - rate cut expectation was postponed to June [4]. - Domestic: Policies focused on new fields, such as a 25 - basis - point reduction in the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and investment plans for the new power system of the power grid. Exports were more resilient than expected, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6% in December. Social financing data showed that corporate loans and bond financing were stronger than seasonal, but the real estate and infrastructure were seasonally weak. The improvement of inflation was clear, and PP was expected to continue to recover [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core观点 - The iron ore market is expected to remain volatile and slightly weak in the short term, with limited downside potential due to the back structure and positive basis of the futures contracts, as well as the gradual transfer of inventory from ports to steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Section Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract continued to trade in a narrow range, closing at 812 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 256,000 lots, and open interest was 649,000 lots, with a capital inflow of 11.591 billion yuan. The price is expected to test the lower support in the short term [1]. - Spot prices of major port varieties in Qingdao were relatively stable, while the swap price declined again. The basis of PB powder in Qingdao Port was 40.2 yuan/ton, with little change. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and positive basis, indicating limited downside potential but a short - term weakening trend [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments decreased on a month - on - month basis, especially in Brazil. Port arrivals increased, and high arrivals are expected to continue. On the demand side, hot metal production decreased, some blast furnace restart was postponed, steel mill profitability improved, and steel mills started to replenish inventory. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory pressure was increasing, while steel mill inventory was still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: Consumption supported the economy, inflation declined, and the Fed maintained a wait - and - see attitude. The US economy was in a "light to moderate" expansion, with regional differences in performance. Employment was mainly for filling vacancies, and price pressure generally eased [4]. - Domestic: Incremental policies were continuously introduced to ensure a good start. The current economic situation was still in the off - season, but the policies issued since the fourth quarter were entering the implementation stage. The central bank announced a 900 - billion - yuan six - month outright reverse repurchase operation on January 15 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a trend of gradually strengthening in an oscillatory manner. Although there may be a certain decline and adjustment in the short term, the downside space is limited. The supply side of new shipments begins to decrease gradually, the demand side recovers slightly, the port inventory is still accumulating but gradually transferring to downstream steel mills, and the futures contract's back structure and positive basis provide strong support below [4]. Summary of Each Section Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly during the day, closing at 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or +0.18% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 270,000 lots, the open interest was 640,000 lots, and the precipitated funds were 11.466 billion yuan. The disk price faced pressure and pulled back near the previous high of 840, and is expected to be weak in the short term [1]. - The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, remained unchanged at 821 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 108.35 (+0.1) US dollars/ton, with no change in spot and swap prices [1]. - The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the disk price was 857.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 42.9 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 37.5 yuan, and the spread between contracts 5 - 9 was 21.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, and although it was weak in the short term, the downside space may be limited [1]. Fundamental Analysis - After the year - end rush, overseas mine shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions all weakened. The current arrival volume increased month - on - month, and it is expected that the previous high shipments will still support the high - level operation of arrival volumes. There are expected disturbances on the supply side [2]. - On the demand side, molten iron production recovered month - on - month. After the previous blast furnace maintenance, the blast furnaces were restarted, the steel mill profitability rate recovered slightly, and inventory replenishment gradually started, but the overall rhythm was still slow. There is still an expectation of blast furnace restart in January, and attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of inventory replenishment demand. After the sharp rise in futures and spot prices, the port trading volume decreased significantly month - on - month [2]. - In terms of inventory, port inventory continued to accumulate, the number of berthed ships increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to a certain extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The release of inventory replenishment demand was still slow. The general rise in commodity prices drove the iron ore disk to break through upwards, and the sentiment resonated with the restart of molten iron production and steel mill inventory replenishment, supporting the price to run strongly [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policy expectations in the first quarter are gradually rising. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. In addition, the national subsidy policy for 2026 has been released, with certain optimizations and adjustments compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that it has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budgetary investment plan for the early batch of 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and is accelerating the allocation and use of various funds. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission recently approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects with a total investment of more than 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds that were not fully distributed in October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [3]. - Overseas, Trump may announce the nomination of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. Currently, in market expectations, Hassett is still the most popular candidate, and the interest rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years [3].