【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：商品情绪走弱，期现价格承压 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡偏弱，收于 768.5 元/吨，较 前一个交易日收盘价下跌-13 元/吨，跌幅-1.66%，成交 33.2 万手，持仓量 52.5 万手，沉淀资金 88.78 亿。短期破位之后，呈现一定偏弱。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 775 跌-9，超特粉 660 跌- 9，掉期主力 100.75(-1.4)美元/吨。现货、掉期价格小幅回落。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 812.6 元/吨，基差 44.1 元/吨， 基差小幅收缩；铁矿 5-9 价差 17.5 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 10 元，铁矿期货合约呈 现 back 结构+正基差，但短期稍显破位偏弱。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运环比增加，主要是巴西发运明显恢复；本期到港继续走弱， 前期发运下降传导至到港，由于天气影响供给端存扰动预期；需求端，铁水产 量环比略降，钢厂盈利率有所走弱，刚需偏稳，春节临近钢厂补库加速，随着 补库推进，对价格的支撑可能逐渐弱化。库存方面，港口继 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show that the arrival volume has decreased, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. The demand side has relatively stable rigid demand. Although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradiction is not prominent, but the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis with futures at a discount, and the market remains in a narrow - range oscillation [4] Summary by Section Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated within a narrow range during the day, closing at 781.5 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 4 yuan/ton or 0.51% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 241,000 lots, the open interest was 516,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.866 billion yuan. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term, and attention should be paid to further tests near the support level of 775 [1] - The mainstream spot varieties at the port: the PB powder at Qingdao Port was 783 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), the Super Special powder was 668 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan), and the main swap contract was 102.6 (- 0.2) US dollars/ton. The spot price was firm, while the swap price declined slightly [1] - The converted price of PB powder at Qingdao Port to the futures price was 831.5 yuan/ton, with a basis of 50 yuan/ton, and the basis changed little. The spread between the May - September contracts of iron ore was 17 yuan, and the spread between the September - January contracts was 11 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts presented a back structure + positive basis, showing a slight break in the short term. From this perspective, the downside space may still be limited [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, mainly due to the obvious recovery of shipments from Brazil. The arrival volume continued to decline, as the previous decline in shipments was transmitted to the arrival. There are expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. On the demand side, the pig iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, the rigid demand was relatively stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, steel mills are accelerating inventory replenishment, and as the replenishment progresses, the support for prices may gradually weaken [2] - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the inventory replenishment speed has accelerated, and the total inventory pressure is still accumulating. The market sentiment has weakened, and both the futures and spot prices are under pressure [2] - The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and there is uncertainty about the post - holiday demand. In reality, both the supply and demand sides need to be verified, and attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment [2] Macro - level Analysis - At the domestic macro - level, it is judged that the positive policy expectations continue to be the macro - mainline. From the perspective of policy changes, the expectation that policies will be intensified in the first quarter to achieve a good start for the economy in the "15th Five - Year Plan" year is gradually strengthening, and the overall policy environment is warm, which is one of the core logics for being bullish on risk assets in the first quarter [3] - In overseas macro - aspects, one of the core variables in overseas macro this week is that Kevin Warsh was nominated as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, but it is expected to have limited impact on the market. His monetary policy stance is "supporting interest rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction", so he is considered a hawkish figure by the market. In addition to monetary policy, investors are also advised to pay attention to two risk events with high uncertainty: the situation between the US and Iran and the US government shutdown [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market has a slightly weakening trend with the futures contract showing a back structure and positive basis, and the overall disk is slightly weak in oscillation. The supply pressure eases due to reduced arrivals, and the demand side has stable rigid demand. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated weakly during the day, closing at 777.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 357,000 lots, the open interest was 519,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.875 billion yuan. It shows a short - term weakening oscillation [1]. - Spot prices: The mainstream varieties of port spot, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, decreased by 4 to 791 yuan, and Super Special powder decreased by 4 to 678 yuan. The main swap price was 101.95 (-0.85) US dollars/ton. The spot is firm, and the swap price slightly declined [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price is 830.1 yuan/ton, and the basis is 52.6 yuan/ton, with a slight expansion of the basis. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore is 17.5 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts is 11 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts present a back structure and a positive basis, showing a short - term breakdown and a weakened oscillation [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased slightly, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries still declined. The arrivals continued to weaken, and there are expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The short - term supply pressure eases, but the inventory pressure is still increasing [2]. - Demand: The molten iron production decreased slightly, the steel mill profitability weakened, the rigid demand was relatively stable, the steel mill replenishment speed accelerated, and the steel mill inventory increased rapidly. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, the steel mill inventory increased significantly, the replenishment speed accelerated as the Spring Festival approached, and the total inventory pressure was still accumulating [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic macro: This week continues the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policy, and strong expectation". The domestic demand recovery rhythm is still slow, the price remains low, the upstream improvement is limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the medium - and long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises is weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools are still being implemented, and the macro - environment is mainly for support. The market still needs to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [4]. - Overseas macro: The US consumption is still resilient, but the income growth slows down, the savings rate is at a low level, and consumption more depends on credit and employment stability, with weakening internal impetus. The core inflation continues to cool down, the commodity - end pressure eases, but the stickiness of service items still exists. The market trading focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro - environment is still conducive to risk assets maintaining resilience, but policy uncertainty increases, and asset pricing differentiation intensifies [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The iron ore market is currently in a state of slight weakness in the short - term, but the overall downside space is limited. The supply side of new shipments is gradually decreasing, the demand side is slightly recovering, and the inventory in ports is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis with futures at a discount [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to decline weakly, closing at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 363,000 lots, the open interest was 587,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.187 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 10 yuan to 794 yuan, and Super Special powder dropped 10 yuan to 670 yuan. The swap main contract was 104.2 US dollars/ton (- 0.75 US dollars). The spot and swap prices declined again [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 823.7 yuan/ton, and the basis was 34.2 yuan/ton, with a significant contraction. The spread between iron ore contracts 2 - 5 was 17.5 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 18 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis. Although it showed a weak shock in the short - term, the overall downside space might be limited [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with a significant decline in Australia and Brazil and an increase in non - mainstream countries. The current arrival volume decreased month - on - month, and there were expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. The arrival of the first batch of iron ore from Mangu increased the expected supply pressure [2]. - Demand: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and the rigid demand was still supported. Steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream was strong. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron and the release rhythm of replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [2]. - Inventory: Ports continued to accumulate inventory, the inventory under pressure increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still accumulating. The inventory of steel mills was still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the CPI in December decreased to 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. Consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, and industrial production rebounded unexpectedly. The Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest - rate cut expectation was postponed to June [4]. - Domestic: Policies focused on new fields, such as a 25 - basis - point reduction in the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and investment plans for the new power system of the power grid. Exports were more resilient than expected, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6% in December. Social financing data showed that corporate loans and bond financing were stronger than seasonal, but the real estate and infrastructure were seasonally weak. The improvement of inflation was clear, and PP was expected to continue to recover [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core观点 - The iron ore market is expected to remain volatile and slightly weak in the short term, with limited downside potential due to the back structure and positive basis of the futures contracts, as well as the gradual transfer of inventory from ports to steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Section Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract continued to trade in a narrow range, closing at 812 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 256,000 lots, and open interest was 649,000 lots, with a capital inflow of 11.591 billion yuan. The price is expected to test the lower support in the short term [1]. - Spot prices of major port varieties in Qingdao were relatively stable, while the swap price declined again. The basis of PB powder in Qingdao Port was 40.2 yuan/ton, with little change. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and positive basis, indicating limited downside potential but a short - term weakening trend [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments decreased on a month - on - month basis, especially in Brazil. Port arrivals increased, and high arrivals are expected to continue. On the demand side, hot metal production decreased, some blast furnace restart was postponed, steel mill profitability improved, and steel mills started to replenish inventory. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory pressure was increasing, while steel mill inventory was still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: Consumption supported the economy, inflation declined, and the Fed maintained a wait - and - see attitude. The US economy was in a "light to moderate" expansion, with regional differences in performance. Employment was mainly for filling vacancies, and price pressure generally eased [4]. - Domestic: Incremental policies were continuously introduced to ensure a good start. The current economic situation was still in the off - season, but the policies issued since the fourth quarter were entering the implementation stage. The central bank announced a 900 - billion - yuan six - month outright reverse repurchase operation on January 15 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market shows a trend of gradually strengthening in an oscillatory manner. Although there may be a certain decline and adjustment in the short term, the downside space is limited. The supply side of new shipments begins to decrease gradually, the demand side recovers slightly, the port inventory is still accumulating but gradually transferring to downstream steel mills, and the futures contract's back structure and positive basis provide strong support below [4]. Summary of Each Section Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated narrowly during the day, closing at 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or +0.18% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 270,000 lots, the open interest was 640,000 lots, and the precipitated funds were 11.466 billion yuan. The disk price faced pressure and pulled back near the previous high of 840, and is expected to be weak in the short term [1]. - The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, remained unchanged at 821 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The main swap contract was at 108.35 (+0.1) US dollars/ton, with no change in spot and swap prices [1]. - The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the disk price was 857.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 42.9 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 37.5 yuan, and the spread between contracts 5 - 9 was 21.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, and although it was weak in the short term, the downside space may be limited [1]. Fundamental Analysis - After the year - end rush, overseas mine shipments decreased significantly month - on - month. Shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions all weakened. The current arrival volume increased month - on - month, and it is expected that the previous high shipments will still support the high - level operation of arrival volumes. There are expected disturbances on the supply side [2]. - On the demand side, molten iron production recovered month - on - month. After the previous blast furnace maintenance, the blast furnaces were restarted, the steel mill profitability rate recovered slightly, and inventory replenishment gradually started, but the overall rhythm was still slow. There is still an expectation of blast furnace restart in January, and attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of inventory replenishment demand. After the sharp rise in futures and spot prices, the port trading volume decreased significantly month - on - month [2]. - In terms of inventory, port inventory continued to accumulate, the number of berthed ships increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to a certain extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The release of inventory replenishment demand was still slow. The general rise in commodity prices drove the iron ore disk to break through upwards, and the sentiment resonated with the restart of molten iron production and steel mill inventory replenishment, supporting the price to run strongly [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policy expectations in the first quarter are gradually rising. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. In addition, the national subsidy policy for 2026 has been released, with certain optimizations and adjustments compared to 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that it has organized and issued the list of "two important" construction projects and the central budgetary investment plan for the early batch of 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and is accelerating the allocation and use of various funds. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission recently approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects with a total investment of more than 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds that were not fully distributed in October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [3]. - Overseas, Trump may announce the nomination of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. Currently, in market expectations, Hassett is still the most popular candidate, and the interest rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the gradual ebb of macro - event disturbances, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to the fundamentals. With stable and rising shipments, weak rigid demand, and inventory accumulation, the overall fundamentals are weak. However, the back structure of futures contracts and the positive basis provide some support to the futures price. Overall, it shows a range - bound pattern mainly [4] Summary According to the Table of Contents Market行情态势回顾 - Futures prices: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated within the day, closing at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a decline rate of +0.13%. The trading volume was 216,000 lots, the open interest was 553,000 lots, and the precipitated funds were nearly 9.5 billion yuan. The disk price was in a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1] - Spot prices: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 3 to 787, and Super Special powder dropped 3 to 672. The main swap was at 104.2 (-0.7) US dollars/ton. Spot prices fell slightly, and swap prices also declined [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the disk was 819.4 yuan/ton, with a basis of 39.9 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 18.5 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 21.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, and there was also some support below the futures [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil weakened, especially in Brazil, while shipments from non - mainstream countries increased month - on - month. The current arrivals decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand: In the seasonal off - season, both environmental protection and annual maintenance continued. Coupled with stricter environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and delays in blast furnace复产, molten iron continued to decline significantly and exceeded expectations. The profitability rate of steel mills remained flat month - on - month, and there was still an expectation of further weakening of molten iron. The release of restocking demand was still slow [2] - Inventory: Port unloading and warehousing accelerated, showing signs of further inventory accumulation. Inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The arrivals within the week increased, and the congestion situation improved. Steel mill inventories continued to decline. Against the background of the decline of molten iron, the daily consumption decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased. The spot price of iron ore was relatively firm, and steel mills actively reduced normal inventory and had a weak willingness to replenish further [2] Macroeconomic Factors - Overseas: The recent combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair replacement" in the US is conducive to the Fed's easing. The quality of economic data in January is expected to return to normal levels and provide more guidance for the market. The overseas macro - environment will continue to warm up in 2026. The "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policy in the US is conducive to promoting economic prosperity. The ECB announced in December to keep interest rates unchanged and raised the GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was implemented as scheduled without radical tightening, raising the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and maintaining the forecast for 2026 [3] - Domestic: On December 23, the National Conference on Housing and Urban - Rural Development was held in Beijing. The meeting deployed tasks for 2026, including urban renewal, stabilizing the real estate market, and upgrading the construction industry. The renovation of underground pipe networks was still a highlight, with deployments for gas pipelines and drainage and flood prevention projects, and it is expected that the capital investment will increase slightly next year. In addition, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The weakening of commodity retail was the main drag factor, while service consumption continued to improve. In terms of investment, manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment continued to weaken, while exports performed well and remained an important support [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual energy and chemical products, ratings such as "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" are used based on the expected price movements within the next 2 - 12 weeks [268]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market currently lacks a clear mainline. The increase in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI reflects the boost from the suspension of the Sino - US trade war, but the employment and raw material inventory indexes are relatively weak. The progress of the US - Iran negotiation has stagnated, which may disrupt the crude oil market again. The overall chemical industry continues to oscillate, and factors like the Caixin PMI index and device start - stop news are used for short - term trading. The report suggests an oscillating approach towards the energy and chemical market, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Middle East exports increased significantly in June, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's production resolution this weekend. On July 1st, international oil prices rose, and the market is concerned about the OPEC+ meeting. Saudi Arabia's June crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day to 6.33 million barrels per day. Brazil's May oil and gas production increased year - on - year, and Kazakhstan's June crude oil production recovered and reached a historical high. The US API data shows a decrease in total oil inventory, which is beneficial for oil prices. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [4]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The market has returned to trading the loose fundamentals, and the PG market may oscillate weakly. On July 1st, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4,200 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern is loose, with increasing liquefied gas and civil gas volumes, low downstream replenishment willingness during the off - season, and limited follow - up increments in chemical demand. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price oscillates, waiting for negative factors to materialize. The futures price follows the crude oil price, and factors such as OPEC+ potential over - production in August, increased supply from Venezuela and Iran, and weak demand may put pressure on the asphalt price. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [4][5]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to fully materialize. OPEC+ may over - produce in August, and the decrease in natural gas prices may reduce the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. The increase in heavy oil supply and the weakening of geopolitical factors are negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil price follows the crude oil price down. It is affected by factors such as the weakening of the gasoline - diesel spread, shipping demand decline, and green energy substitution. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, following the crude oil price [7]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price has weakened significantly, and methanol oscillates. On July 1st, the methanol price oscillated. The domestic main production areas showed a weak downward trend, with increased port inventory and weakening basis. The coal price has an impact on production costs, and the MTO profit is low. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [16][17]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, and it depends on exports. On July 1st, the urea price was stable. The domestic demand is weak, and the market is mainly trading the supply - demand imbalance. The export is expected to drive the market. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the short term, waiting for new market drivers [17]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: With low inventory, it continues to oscillate and consolidate. On July 1st, the ethylene glycol price was weak, and the basis strengthened. The future arrival volume is expected to increase, and the shutdown of a bottle - chip device will reduce the demand. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [12]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is temporarily stable, and PX oscillates strongly. On July 1st, the PX price and related indicators are given. In the short term, the cost of PX may weaken due to the potential weakening of crude oil, and the supply - demand side is affected by device maintenance. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [9]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply - demand weakens, and the cost - side PX is strong, so PTA oscillates. On July 1st, the PTA price and processing fees are provided. The crude oil price may decline, which has a weak impact on PTA. The supply is tight, but the demand from downstream factories may decrease. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with the supply - demand margin weakening but following the cost - side in the short term [9]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The short - fiber processing fee is supported, the basis is stable, and the absolute value follows the raw material's fluctuations. On July 1st, the short - fiber futures performed better than the raw material PTA. The industry has no major contradictions, and the key is whether the recent weak sales will continue. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [13][14]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance has gradually started, and the bottle - chip processing fee has bottomed out. On July 1st, the polyester raw material futures declined slightly, and the bottle - chip market was active. The reduction in supply due to maintenance limits the further decline of the processing fee. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with the absolute value following the raw material and limited further compression of the processing fee [14][15]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance increase is limited, and PP oscillates in the short term. On July 1st, the PP price oscillated, and the basis was stable. The cost is affected by the crude oil price, the supply is increasing, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [21][22]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance support is limited, and plastic oscillates. On July 1st, the LLDPE price oscillated weakly, and the basis strengthened. The decline in oil prices, the increase in supply, and the weak demand from downstream industries are the main factors. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [20]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: In the vacuum period of driving factors, styrene oscillates narrowly. On July 1st, the styrene price declined, and the basis strengthened. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the pure - benzene fundamentals are marginally improving. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [10]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC oscillates. The macro - level risk preference has improved, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity, off - season demand, and limited export growth. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with a bearish supply - demand expectation and a preference for short - selling [23]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Liquid chlorine is under pressure, and caustic soda rebounds weakly. The short - term price oscillates, supported by improved risk preference and increased cost, but pressured by the bearish supply - demand expectation in July - August. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the short term, with a preference for short - selling in the long term [24]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., are provided, showing different changes [26]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are given, with corresponding changes [27]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., are presented, showing different changes [29]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring for methanol, urea, styrene, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda but does not provide specific data summaries in the content [30][42][53].