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天风证券晨会集萃-20250917
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-17 00:11
Group 1 - The report highlights that the overall fund inflow into stock ETFs shows a reverse correlation with the market trend, indicating a lag in retail investor sentiment and behavior during market uptrends [2][24][25] - It notes that since the beginning of the year, net inflows have been particularly strong in technology growth, non-bank financials, and certain core assets [2][24] - The report suggests that while high levels of ETF fund inflows do not correlate with significant stock price increases, the pricing power of ETFs has been increasing from May to September, indicating a shift towards more informed investment behavior [2][24][26] Group 2 - The fixed income section discusses the current state of the bond market, indicating that without a strong configuration of buyers, the market remains in a state of fluctuation, particularly for long-term bonds [3][32] - It emphasizes that the lack of demand from banks and insurance companies for long-term bonds is a persistent issue, compounded by increased supply pressures [3][32][34] - The report projects that the yield on 10-year government bonds may face resistance in the range of 1.80%-1.90%, while the 30-year bonds do not show signs of reaching a peak yet [3][34] Group 3 - The report on the chemical industry indicates that the revenue and net profit of listed companies in the basic chemical sector showed slight year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.12 trillion yuan, up 3.1% [8] - It highlights that the second quarter of 2025 saw a slight increase in revenue but a decrease in profit margins, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [8] - The report notes a significant decline in the growth rate of construction projects, suggesting a potential bottoming out of profitability in the sector [8] Group 4 - The report on Tonghe Technology indicates that the company is positioned to be a leader in the charging module sector, with expectations of significant growth driven by the data center HVDC power module market [7][22] - It forecasts revenue growth from 13.3 billion yuan in 2025 to 21.9 billion yuan by 2027, with net profit expected to increase significantly during the same period [7][22] - The report assigns a price-to-earnings ratio of 43x for 2026, suggesting a target price of 43.7 yuan per share, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's future performance [7][22] Group 5 - The report on electric power companies indicates that the investment in the power grid is expected to exceed 825 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant increase in infrastructure spending [20] - It highlights the establishment of settlement companies to address renewable energy subsidy gaps, indicating a proactive approach to financing renewable energy projects [20] - The report suggests that investors should focus on companies involved in renewable energy operations and those transitioning from coal to renewable sources [20]
研报掘金丨天风证券:首予通合科技“买入”评级,目标价43.7元
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-16 09:25
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Tonghe Technology is expected to rank among the top four in market share in the domestic charging module sector by 2024, positioning itself in the first tier [1] - The data center HVDC power module is anticipated to provide a new growth curve for the company [1] - The company is expanding into other downstream fields, including smart grids and aerospace, with products such as power supplies for electricity, communication, fire safety, distribution networks, and uninterruptible power supplies [1] Group 2 - The company plans to accelerate capital expenditure and expansion, with a convertible bond issuance proposal in August 2025 to raise no more than 520 million yuan for investment in research and production of power distribution systems and modules for data centers [1] - The amount of construction in progress for the company has significantly accelerated in the first half of 2025 [1] - Given the expected rapid growth in net profit attributable to the parent company in 2026 and 2027, along with sustained high demand for special power supplies, a PE of 43x is assigned for 2026, corresponding to a target stock price of 43.7 yuan, with an initial coverage rating of "Buy" [1]
通合科技(300491):博物通达,迎AI时代机遇
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-16 03:28
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 43.7 CNY based on a 2026 PE of 43x [5][62]. Core Insights - The company is positioned in the top four in the domestic market share for charging modules as of 2024, indicating a strong competitive position [1][30]. - The data center HVDC power modules are expected to provide a new growth curve for the company, leveraging technology similarities with existing products [3][48]. - The company plans to accelerate capital expenditures, with a convertible bond issuance aimed at raising up to 520 million CNY for investment in data center power supply systems and module R&D [3][53]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The charging module industry has seen significant consolidation, with the number of major suppliers decreasing from over 30 in 2015 to around 10 by 2023 [2][31]. - The demand for charging modules is driven by the growth in electric vehicle sales, despite a significant drop in prices from approximately 0.8 CNY/watt in 2015 to about 0.13 CNY/watt by the end of 2019 [2][31]. Product Development and Market Position - The company has rapidly iterated its products to meet market demands, introducing high-power and cost-effective charging modules [2][27]. - The company is expanding into other downstream sectors, including smart grids and aerospace, with a focus on domestic production of specialized power supplies [2][36]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.33 billion, 1.69 billion, and 2.19 billion CNY, representing growth rates of 10%, 27%, and 30% respectively [4][59]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is 80 million, 180 million, and 260 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 233%, 123%, and 48% [4][59]. Valuation and Comparison - The company is compared favorably against peers, with a projected 2026 PE of 43x, which is higher than competitors like Youyou Green Energy and Shenghong Shares [4][62]. - The report highlights the potential for significant profit growth driven by the data center HVDC power modules and the ongoing demand for specialized power supplies [4][62].