即将过去的2025年，像一部"反经典理论"合订本。 这一年，美元大跌、欧元走强，日元加息后"不升反贬"；4月关税冲击一度把美股砸出深坑，恐慌指数 （VIX）冲上60，随后在流动性缓冲与仓位再平衡中迅速修复，标普500年内涨幅超过17%；贵金属 在"软着陆叙事"未彻底瓦解时逼近历史高位，国际黄金价格年内上涨逾70%，冲上4500美元/盎司，白银 的涨幅更猛；油价却偏弱，像是在给需求与供给预期泼冷水。 由此，一种更"金融化"的秩序显形：黑天鹅仍会飞来，但落地时往往被切割成可交易的"白天鹅碎 片"——提前对冲、结构性吸收，甚至被"波动率卖方"纳入风险预算与保证金管理。 市场不是不怕，而是把恐惧变成定价。投资者理解了这一点，才能更好把握2026年的"资本风口"。 联博基金市场策略负责人李长风认为，尽管2025年不确定性因素密集，全球资本市场仍在"攀登忧虑之 墙"的过程中展现韧性。 对于2026年，李长风持审慎乐观态度：乐观在于宏观环境向"金发女孩"（Goldilocks）式组合靠拢；审 慎则源于资产价格已计入较多增长与盈利预期，且估值分化接近极致。 摩根大通财富管理CEO 克里斯汀·莱姆考（Kristin Lemka ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is expected to become the next major investment focus, alongside humanoid robots and deep-sea economy, with significant growth potential [1] - A specific company has seen a staggering 5310% increase in performance and has attracted investment from 300 institutions, indicating strong market confidence [1][4] - China's chip exports are projected to reach 298.11 billion units in 2024, with export value exceeding 1 trillion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 18.7% [3] Group 2 - The domestic chip industry is rapidly advancing due to government support and the need for domestic alternatives, particularly in critical areas like wafer manufacturing and lithography machines [3] - The company "杰创智能" is recognized as a leading player in the AI sector, with a projected performance increase of 1161.60% in the first quarter [3] - Another company has achieved breakthroughs in data processors, switching chips, and ASIC chips, with its self-developed algorithm chip significantly enhancing wireless signal coverage and stability, contributing to its impressive financial performance [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the impact of the European economic recovery on China's export market, highlighting the structural opportunities arising from the EU's demand dynamics and geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Underestimation of European Market Demand**: Traditional trade indicators underestimate the demand from the European market. When using the Domestic Value Added (DVA) metric, the EU emerges as the largest global import market, surpassing the US and China [1][4]. - **Impact of EU Economic Recovery**: The recovery of the EU economy, combined with the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is expected to significantly increase total demand and imports from China. Predictions suggest that the EU's economic growth could double, with a potential increase in Chinese exports by 1% to 3% [3][5]. - **Sector-Specific Benefits**: The mechanical equipment and electronics sectors are poised to benefit significantly from the EU's recovery. Key sub-sectors such as consumer electronics, computers, and general equipment are expected to see notable increases in exports [1][8][9]. - **Trade Tensions as Opportunities**: The ongoing trade tensions between the US and EU may redirect demand towards China, particularly in the mechanical equipment sector. If the EU reduces imports from the US, it could lead to increased opportunities for Chinese exports [1][10]. - **Challenges from European Self-Sufficiency**: The EU's push for supply chain self-sufficiency may pose challenges for Chinese industries, particularly in electronics and transportation equipment. Increased competition is anticipated in sectors like communication devices and new energy vehicles [1][11]. - **Long-term Trade Dynamics**: The long-term trade relationship between China and Europe will present both opportunities and challenges. While there may be increased competition, particularly from German manufacturing, there are also opportunities for investment and collaboration in sectors like new energy vehicles and biomedicine [1][7][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Infrastructure Investments**: Germany's planned €500 billion infrastructure investment is expected to drive demand for mechanical equipment and batteries, further benefiting Chinese exports [9]. - **2025 Export Outlook**: The export performance for 2025 is projected to exceed expectations due to a reduction in trade tensions and the ongoing recovery in Europe, with a positive outlook even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict persists [2][13].