美联储"装修门"升级，特朗普首次"上门"施压降息，但解雇鲍威尔警报暂停，贝森特指有其他风 险。 欧洲央行八连降后收手，维持利率不变，静待美方关税政策明朗化，9月降息预期骤降；拉加德警 告：若欧美贸易摩擦升级，将对通胀施加下行压力。 美国上周首申人数连续第六周下降，至4月中旬以来最低水平，续请失业金人数维持2021年来高 位。 中国强力"反内卷"！时隔27年，价格法重新修订。 第二十五次中国－欧盟领导人会晤举行。 报道：OpenAI准备在8月初推出GPT-5。 英特尔二季度营收超预期，宣布裁员约15%，但CEO未缓解市场对公司竞争力担忧，股价盘后先 涨6%后转为跌近4%。 高奢巨头渴望欧美协议，LVMH Q2核心业务营收意外降9%，CFO称15%关税是"好结果"。 ...

周四，欧洲央行维持利率不变，一年多来首次按下降息"暂停键"。在稍后举办的货币政策发布会上，欧 洲央行延续其谨慎立场，同时对全球贸易局势可能引发的不确定性保持高度关注。 欧洲央行行长拉加德强调，目前通胀正朝着2%的中期目标靠拢，但前景仍存在较大不确定性，尤其是 与美欧关税谈判相关的风险。拉加德提到，如果欧美之间的贸易摩擦升级、关税壁垒上升，可能会对欧 元区通胀施加下行压力。 据华尔街见闻此前文章，媒体称，欧美协议同意的关税水平类似本周达成的日美协议，其中包含现有关 税，这意味着欧盟面对的汽车关税会降至15%。据央视新闻，特朗普7月12日宣布，将自8月1日起对从 欧盟进口的商品征收30%关税。 尤其值得注意的是，拉加德提到，如果欧美之间的贸易摩擦升级、关税壁垒上升，可能会通过两个路径 对通胀施加下行压力：一方面抑制欧洲出口需求，另一方面导致产能过剩国家将商品转向欧洲市场，从 而打压本地价格。 关税风险或对通胀形成下行压力，汇率波动进入政策视野 发布会结束，9月降息概率已从决议前的40%大幅下降至28%；12月降概率为72%，而当天早些时候的 预测为90%以上。 欧央行"正处于一个不错的位置" 欧洲央行此次维持主要 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a rising trend with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, demand recovery on US routes, and trade policy news [8]. - It is recommended to hold a long position in the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2073, up 30.68% from the previous value of 1586; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1118, up 0.92% from 1107. SCFI - US West has a current value of 5172, a 57.92% increase from 3275; SCFIS - US West is at 1718, down 0.12% from 1720; SCFI - US East is 6243, up 45.73% from 4284; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1587, up 20.50% from 1317. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1252, up 0.40% from 1247; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3061, up 31.49% from 2328 [5]. 3.2 Shipping Derivatives Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: Contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc. have shown price increases. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1970.3, up 4.02% from 1894.1; EC2508 is at 2199.1, up 4.71% from 2100.2 [5]. - **Contract Positions and Changes**: There are changes in contract positions. For instance, EC2506's position has decreased by 1467 from 10553 to 9086, while EC2508's position has increased by 2192 from 45769 to 47961 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads and Changes**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread has a current value of 816.1, up 54.9 from 761.2; the 12 - 2 spread is - 187.1, up 13.2 from - 200.3; the 12 - 4 spread is 330.9, down 26.5 from 357.4 [5]. 3.3 Trade Friction News - **Sino - US Trade**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days. However, there are signs of a resurgence in Sino - US trade frictions, with the US planning more sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - **EU - US Trade**: The EU is "strongly regretful" about the US raising steel tariffs to 50% and is preparing "counter - measures" [7]. - **US Trade Policy**: The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed by Trump since his second term, but tariffs on specific industries like automobiles, steel, and aluminum will continue [7]. 3.4 Market Situation and Strategy - **Spot Market**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on US routes, airlines are trying to raise freight rates on European routes in June. For example, MSC's online opening price is 2600$/FEU, and Maersk's price has increased from 2200$/FEU to 2300$/FEU. Some companies are also looking to raise prices in late June [8]. - **Futures Market**: Last week, the main - contract futures price declined due to the unmet expectations of the US - route rush shipping. This week, the 6 - and 8 - month contracts are driving up the prices of far - month contracts due to the expected price increase in late June [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold a long position in the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report [4] Group 2: Freight Index Data - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe are 2073, 1118, 5172, 1718, 6243, 1587 respectively, with corresponding increases of 30.68%, 0.92%, 57.92%, -0.12%, 45.73%, 20.50% [5] - The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1252 and 3061 respectively, with increases of 0.40% and 31.49% [5] Group 3: Freight Futures Data - For freight futures contracts like EC2506, EC2508 etc., the current values, previous values, and their corresponding increases or decreases are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1894.1, a previous value of 1834.8, and an increase of 3.23% [5] - The current positions and their changes of these contracts are also provided. For instance, EC2506's current position is 10553, with a decrease of 484 from the previous value [5] - The current values of month - spreads (10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4) are 761.2, -200.3, 357.4 respectively, with changes of 32.3, -19.1, 29.8 [5] Group 4: Trade Friction Information - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [6] - There are signs of a resurgence in Sino - US trade frictions, with Trump accusing China of violating the agreement, and the US planning more sanctions on Chinese technology [6] - The EU is preparing "counter - measures" due to the US increasing steel tariffs to 50% [7] - The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed by Trump since his second term [7] Group 5: Market Analysis - The market shows a trend of being volatile and stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [8] - Spot prices: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on US routes, airlines are trying to raise freight rates in June. Quotes for late June also show an eagerness to increase prices [8] - Futures prices: The main contract has a significant decline due to the change in the expectation of US - line rush shipments. It shows a volatile downward trend affected by news about Trump's trade policy [8] Group 6: Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the impact of the European economic recovery on China's export market, highlighting the structural opportunities arising from the EU's demand dynamics and geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Underestimation of European Market Demand**: Traditional trade indicators underestimate the demand from the European market. When using the Domestic Value Added (DVA) metric, the EU emerges as the largest global import market, surpassing the US and China [1][4]. - **Impact of EU Economic Recovery**: The recovery of the EU economy, combined with the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is expected to significantly increase total demand and imports from China. Predictions suggest that the EU's economic growth could double, with a potential increase in Chinese exports by 1% to 3% [3][5]. - **Sector-Specific Benefits**: The mechanical equipment and electronics sectors are poised to benefit significantly from the EU's recovery. Key sub-sectors such as consumer electronics, computers, and general equipment are expected to see notable increases in exports [1][8][9]. - **Trade Tensions as Opportunities**: The ongoing trade tensions between the US and EU may redirect demand towards China, particularly in the mechanical equipment sector. If the EU reduces imports from the US, it could lead to increased opportunities for Chinese exports [1][10]. - **Challenges from European Self-Sufficiency**: The EU's push for supply chain self-sufficiency may pose challenges for Chinese industries, particularly in electronics and transportation equipment. Increased competition is anticipated in sectors like communication devices and new energy vehicles [1][11]. - **Long-term Trade Dynamics**: The long-term trade relationship between China and Europe will present both opportunities and challenges. While there may be increased competition, particularly from German manufacturing, there are also opportunities for investment and collaboration in sectors like new energy vehicles and biomedicine [1][7][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Infrastructure Investments**: Germany's planned €500 billion infrastructure investment is expected to drive demand for mechanical equipment and batteries, further benefiting Chinese exports [9]. - **2025 Export Outlook**: The export performance for 2025 is projected to exceed expectations due to a reduction in trade tensions and the ongoing recovery in Europe, with a positive outlook even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict persists [2][13].