Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Cotton Futures Daily Report [1] - Report date: January 6, 2026 [1] - Report cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: You Zhenqi (Qualification No.: F3012673; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0012990) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The closing price of the main cotton futures contract CF2605 was 14,855 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [2]. - The intraday high was 14,885 yuan/ton, the low was 14,640 yuan/ton [2]. - The trading volume was 394,098 lots, and the turnover was 2.909 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Spot Market - The basis of the CF2605 contract on the day was 960 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 6.15% [4]. - The spot reference price (Xinjiang 15,450 yuan/ton) was higher than the futures price [4]. - The basis remained unchanged from the previous trading day, maintaining a significant positive structure [4]. Group 4: Influencing Factors - As of December 15, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.349 million tons, and the industrial inventory was 983,900 tons [5]. - The China Yarn Price Index (C32S) was reported at 21,240 yuan/ton [5]. - The spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 15,450 yuan/ton, supporting the stability of the basis [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestic cotton prices are supported by the expectation of tightened supply and the recovery of high - value - added cotton product exports [6]. - However, the high commercial inventory and cautious downstream procurement restrict the upside space [6]. - It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of the new import quota regulations and RMB exchange rate changes [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates a slight decline in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with the current price at 63.87 cents per pound, down 0.67% from the opening price of 64.28 cents per pound [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached 64.44 cents per pound, while the lowest dipped to 63.68 cents per pound [1] - The USDA reported that for the week ending December 18, net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 183,000 bales, down from 305,000 bales the previous week [1] Group 2 - The average import price of cotton at the port (M index) was 72.75 cents per pound as of December 31, unchanged from the previous day [2] - The cost of importing cotton at a 1% tariff (excluding port fees) was 12,514 yuan per ton, while the cost under sliding scale tariffs was 13,604 yuan per ton [2] - The domestic average price for 3128 cotton (B index) was 15,511 yuan per ton, an increase of 11 yuan per ton compared to December 30 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the National Grain and Material Reserve Bureau and the Ministry of Finance regarding the rotation of 500,000 tons of Xinjiang cotton is expected to positively influence cotton prices, although current demand from the downstream cotton textile industry remains weak and inventory levels are high [1][6]. Group 1: Cotton Market Reaction - Following the announcement, there was strong bullish sentiment in the domestic cotton market, with some market participants anticipating a significant rise in cotton futures prices [1]. - Despite the initial positive sentiment, the main cotton futures contracts experienced only slight increases and stabilized, indicating that the market had already priced in some of the positive effects of the announcement [1][6]. - The rotation of 500,000 tons of Xinjiang cotton is seen as a measure to prevent large price fluctuations and complicate market speculation [1]. Group 2: Rotation Details - The rotation period for the Xinjiang cotton is set from December 2, 2019, to March 31, 2020, with approximately 7,000 tons available for bidding each day [1]. - The maximum bidding price for the rotation will be dynamically determined based on domestic cotton spot prices, with adjustments made weekly [2]. - The quality requirements for the Xinjiang cotton include specific grades and standards, ensuring that only high-quality cotton is included in the reserves [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The domestic cotton market is currently facing high inventory levels, and the new cotton harvest is being released, which may limit the immediate impact of the reserve rotation on prices [6]. - The recent increase in cotton prices has been significant, with main contracts rising over 1,000 yuan per ton since October, indicating that the market may have already absorbed some of the positive news [6]. - The textile industry is not expected to recover to normal export levels in the short term, which may dampen the positive effects of the reserve rotation on cotton prices [6]. Group 4: Xinjiang Cotton Procurement - The procurement of Xinjiang seed cotton is nearing completion, with stable prices for cotton lint being reported [7]. - The average purchase price for machine-harvested seed cotton is between 5.2 to 5.3 yuan per kilogram, while hand-picked cotton is around 6 yuan per kilogram [7]. - As of November 14, the processing volume of Xinjiang cotton lint was reported at 6.48 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year's figures [7].

Core Insights - The National Supply and Marketing Cooperative System has facilitated the sale of agricultural products from Xinjiang and Tibet exceeding 24.2 billion yuan over the past five years, significantly contributing to the income increase of local farmers [1][2] Group 1: Sales and Economic Impact - Over the last five years, the cooperative system has helped sell agricultural products (excluding cotton) from Xinjiang and Tibet worth over 24.2 billion yuan, promoting income growth for farmers [1] - The Guangzhou supply system has sold nearly 4.5 billion yuan worth of agricultural products from Xinjiang and Tibet since 2021, with over 4.4 billion yuan from Xinjiang dried fruits, benefiting more than 100,000 farmers in the region [1] Group 2: Investment and Development - The cooperative system has invested in and established 75 various projects in Xinjiang and Tibet over the past five years, aiding local industrial development [1] - The Jiangsu Supply Cooperative has set up 295 themed exhibition halls and specialty product sections in agricultural exhibition centers, achieving an annual average sale of 80,000 tons of Xinjiang fruits and a cumulative sale of 8 million yuan in Tibetan agricultural products [2] Group 3: Brand and Market Development - The Lhasa Supply Cooperative has integrated over 120 agricultural enterprises and nearly 1,000 specialty products to form the "Lhasa Good Goods" association, enhancing brand influence and market competitiveness [2] - The meeting emphasized the need to establish a long-term mechanism to promote the sales of agricultural products from Xinjiang and Tibet, leveraging resources from agricultural wholesale markets, chain supermarkets, and e-commerce platforms [2]