1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2605) rose with a weekly increase of about 1.18%. The export demand of US cotton is strong, but the domestic market is under pressure from supply, and the consumer end has weak new orders. In the short - term, cotton prices may fluctuate upward [5]. - Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2605) rose with a weekly increase of about 1.18% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the week ending March 19, 2026, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 202,400 bales, up 3% from the previous week and down 5% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 100,600 bales, up 46% from the previous week and 43% from the average of the previous four weeks. Domestically, the supply is under pressure as foreign cotton continues to arrive at ports, inventory increases, and the market is lightly traded. As of March 26, the inventory at major ports of imported cotton increased by 1.750.09% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 582,000 tons. The consumer end has few new orders, and the de - stocking speed of finished products has slowed. The operating rate in Xinjiang remains stable at over 90%. As of March 26, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 78.5%, down 0.13% from last week. The downstream is in the traditional small peak season, and there is still support from rigid demand. In the short - term, cotton prices may fluctuate upward [5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the May contract of US cotton rose with a weekly increase of about 2.96%. As of March 17, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 128,445 lots, an increase of 12,453 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,220 lots, a decrease of 24,803 lots from the previous week; the net position was 16,225 lots, an increase of 37,256 lots from last week [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending March 19, 2026, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 202,400 bales, up 3% from the previous week. The international cotton spot price was 78.2 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.15 cents per pound from last week [17]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 1.18%, and the price of the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract fell by 0.19%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 181,886 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 923 lots. The number of cotton futures warrants at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 12,434, and that of cotton yarn futures warrants was 222 [20][26][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of March 27, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,814 yuan per ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 22,280 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,470 yuan per ton; CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 25,040 yuan per ton [38][49]. - **Futures - Spot Spread**: This week, the spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou cotton was - 135 yuan per ton, and the spread between the spot prices of cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,466 yuan per ton. The basis between the price index of cotton 3128B and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was + 1,419 yuan per ton, and the basis between the spot price of cotton yarn C32S and the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract was 845 yuan per ton [35][43]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of March 26, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 14,081 yuan per ton, a decrease of 74 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 13,169 yuan per ton, a decrease of 118 yuan per ton from last week. The import price index of cotton yarn (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,623 yuan per ton; C32S was 22,075 yuan per ton; JC32S was 23,710 yuan per ton [54]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of March 26, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,630 yuan per ton, a decrease of 112 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 3,399 yuan per ton, a decrease of 68 yuan per ton from last week [58]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of February 2026, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.477 million tons, a decrease of 5.38% month - on - month and 0.69% year - on - year. At the end of February, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 949,800 tons [63]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In February 2026, China's total cotton import volume was about 170,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 44.1%. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41%. In February 2026, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a decrease of 30,000 tons month - on - month and an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year [66]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of February 28, 2026, the inventory days of yarn were 21.45 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%; the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.09% [70]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: From January to February 2026, China's textile and garment export volume was 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. Among them, textile exports were 25.57 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%; garment exports were 24.87 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [77]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative retail sales of garments were 211.25 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 80.87%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of garment retail sales was 10.7%, a month - on - month increase of 282.14% [81]. 3.4. Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of cotton this week is presented in the form of a chart, but specific data is not elaborated [82]. - **Stock Market - Xinong Development**: Information about the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development is presented in the form of a chart, but specific data is not elaborated [85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market lacks new fundamental drivers, and the overall market fluctuation is small. The domestic cotton spot trading is relatively sluggish, while the local locked - basis trading is relatively good. The domestic cotton - textile enterprises face pressure from imported yarn, and downstream weaving mainly follows small and urgent orders, maintaining just - in - time inventory replenishment [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 15,280 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.43%, and the night - session closing price was 15,310 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase. CY2605 closed at 21,535 yuan/ton with a 0.28% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 21,555 yuan/ton with a 0.09% increase. ICE US Cotton 5 closed at 67.23 cents/pound with a - 0.16% decrease. The trading volume of CF2605 was 579,050 lots, a decrease of 3,966 lots from the previous day, and the position was 1,058,090 lots, a decrease of 8,152 lots. The trading volume of CY2605 was 11,601 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 14,439 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 12,384, a decrease of 16, and the effective forecast was 349, an increase of 21. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 251, a decrease of 16, and the effective forecast was 67, an increase of 200 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,519 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan or 0.40% from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 16,458 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan or 0.40%. The price in Shandong was 16,618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan or - 0.51%. The price in Hebei was 16,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan or - 0.18%. The 3128B index was 16,592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan or - 0.34%. The Cotlook:A index was 78.25 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.10 cents or - 1.39%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,582 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan or - 0.14% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF5 - 9 spread was - 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 1,240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading is relatively sluggish, and the local locked - basis trading is relatively good. The spot basis is generally stable, and individual cotton merchants have slightly increased the basis. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 South Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B is CF05 + 1150 - 1200, and more sales bases are CF05 + 1200 and above. The mainstream sales basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B is CF05 + 1300 - 1550 [2] - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The local quotation of pure - cotton yarn is stable with a slight decrease. Affected by the price advantage of imported yarn, the low - count yarn has been having poor sales. The current inventory of imported yarn at ports is low, and the local open - end spinning trading has slightly improved. Downstream weaving mainly follows small and urgent orders and maintains just - in - time inventory replenishment. Due to insufficient new orders, the quotation of some conventional varieties of individual spinning enterprises has been slightly reduced [2] - **US Cotton**: Yesterday, the ICE cotton futures closed slightly down 0.16% after intraday fluctuations. The market lacks new fundamental drivers, and the overall market fluctuation is small [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The cotton market is influenced by external factors. ICE cotton futures fell 0.55% last Friday due to lack of new fundamental upward drivers and concerns about the global cotton consumption outlook. The domestic cotton spot basis is generally stable, while the cotton yarn market has a weak trading atmosphere, and imported yarns put pressure on domestic yarn sales [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Futures Data - **CF2605**: Yesterday's closing price was 15,215 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%; the night - session closing price was 15,305 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.59%. The trading volume was 583,016 lots, an increase of 59,163 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,066,242 lots, a decrease of 17,421 lots [1]. - **CY2605**: Yesterday's closing price was 21,475 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.89%; the night - session closing price was 21,570 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.44%. The trading volume was 15,405 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 14,799 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **ICE US Cotton 5**: The price was 67.34 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.55% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **North Xinjiang 3128 Machine - picked Cotton**: The price was 16,454 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day [1]. - **South Xinjiang 3128 Machine - picked Cotton**: The price was 16,393 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan or 0.43% from the previous day [1]. - **Shandong Region**: The price was 16,703 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan or - 0.37% from the previous day [1]. - **Hebei Region**: The price was 16,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan or - 0.58% from the previous day [1]. - **3128B Index**: The price was 16,649 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73 yuan or - 0.44% from the previous day [1]. - **Cotlook:A Index**: The price was 78.25 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.10 cents or - 1.39% from the previous day [1]. - **Pure - cotton Combed Yarn 32 - count**: The price was 22,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - **Pure - cotton Combed Yarn 32 - count Arrival Price**: The price was 22,614 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan or - 0.06% from the previous day [1]. 3.3 Basis and Spread Data - **CF5 - 9 Spread**: The spread was - 105 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1]. - **North Xinjiang 3128 Machine - picked Cotton - CF605 Spread**: The spread was 1,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.4 Market News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The cotton spot basis is generally stable, with many cotton merchants not adjusting the basis. The sales basis quotes for 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value of 4 and above are mostly at CF05 + 1300 and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream quotes for 2025/26 South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3.5 and micronaire value above 4 are in the range of CF05 + 1100 - 1400, and most quotes are at CF05 + 1200 and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The freight for cotton transported out of Xinjiang by truck is slightly decreasing [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn in the market is stable with a slight decline, the overall trading is average, and the market wait - and - see sentiment is increasing. Some imported yarns are arriving at ports one after another, and the low - price supply is increasing, which puts pressure on the sales of domestic yarns. Currently, some spinning mills have full production schedules but few new orders [1][2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fell 0.55% due to lack of new fundamental upward drivers and concerns about the global cotton consumption outlook [1][2]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton futures are expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short - term, but further upward movement requires more fundamental drivers. Domestic cotton futures are also expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend, and reaching new highs needs new upward drivers in both domestic and international cotton markets [1][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract opened at 64.20, reached a high of 66.25, a low of 64.08, and closed at 65.80, with a gain of 1.59 and a rise of 2.42%. The trading volume was 148,162 lots, a decrease of 24,966 lots, and the open interest was 155,381 lots, a decrease of 7,356 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract opened at 15,330, reached a high of 15,765, a low of 15,185, and closed at 15,415, with a gain of 120 and a rise of 0.78%. The trading volume was 3,324,141 lots, an increase of 1,264,610 lots, and the open interest was 725,321 lots, a decrease of 39,759 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract opened at 21,215, reached a high of 21,835, a low of 21,125, and closed at 21,565, with a gain of 360 and a rise of 1.70%. The trading volume was 89,240 lots, an increase of 28,368 lots, and the open interest was 14,249 lots, a decrease of 367 lots [4] 3.2基本面 3.2.1国际棉花情况 - ICE cotton futures regained the upward momentum this week. The near - month May contract recovered last week's decline, and the far - month December contract hit a new high this year, reaching above 70 cents per pound. In the first half of the week, ICE cotton futures rebounded due to the decrease in warehouse receipts and commercial bargain - hunting. On Friday, it continued to rise due to the rumor of China's additional import quota [1][5] - The USDA's March 2026 monthly supply - demand report: The US cotton balance sheet remained unchanged. The global cotton balance sheet increased the 2025/26 global cotton production by 1.13 million bales, mainly due to the increase of 750,000 bales in Brazil's production and 500,000 bales in China's production. The global cotton consumption in 2025/26 was slightly reduced by 140,000 bales. The ending inventory in 2025/26 increased by 1.28 million bales to 76.39 million bales, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.4%, compared with 63.3% in the February report and 62% in the 2024/25 season [5] - As of the week ending March 5, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 8,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 83,900 tons, a 31% increase from the previous week and a 77% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 2.1456 million tons, accounting for 82% of the annual predicted total export volume. The cumulative export shipment volume was 1.1906 million tons, accounting for 55% of the annual total signed volume [6] - Australia: The picking work in the main producing areas is accelerating. In January, the cotton export volume increased year - on - year. As of March 10, the water storage in the Murray - Darling Basin was about 48% of the total capacity, lower than 58% in the same period in 2025. In January, the export volume of Australian raw cotton was 53,000 tons, a 45% decrease from December but a 41% increase from the same period last year. China is still the main export destination. In the first six months of this international cotton year, the cumulative export volume of Australian raw cotton reached 838,000 tons, higher than 723,000 tons in the same period of the 2024/25 season [7] - Brazil: The market continues to focus on the new - crop production, and the current downward adjustment is limited. The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (ABRAPA) predicts that the cotton production in Brazil this year will be 3.83 million tons, lower than 4.25 million tons in 2025. The production in Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, is expected to be 2.56 million tons, a 15% decrease from the previous season. The production in Piauí is expected to increase by nearly 41% to 93,355 tons. The export volume of raw cotton in the first week of March has reached nearly 88,000 tons, a significant increase compared with the same period in 2025. In the first seven months of the 2025/2026 season, the cumulative export volume of Brazilian raw cotton reached 1.992 million tons, higher than 1.905 million tons in the same period last year [8][9] - Bangladesh: The demand for cotton imports has rebounded. Due to the continuous conflict in the Middle East, spinning mills expect higher freight and basis quotes and lock in supplies in advance. However, the core shipping routes for imports and exports are still closed or severely blocked, and there are concerns about energy shortages and cost increases [9] - Pakistan: The planting area in the new season is still uncertain, and the demand for cotton imports is moderate. Some local estimates show that the planting area this year may decrease by about 5% - 10% compared with last year. Recently, the domestic cotton price has risen, which may encourage some farmers to continue growing cotton. The import demand this week is moderate. Yarn export inquiries still exist, but buyers are not highly accepting of the current high prices [9] - Southeast Asian textile industry chain startup rates: As of the week ending March 13, the startup rate of Indian textile enterprises was 68%, that of Vietnamese textile enterprises was 70%, and that of Pakistani textile enterprises was 68.5% [10] 3.2.2国内棉花情况 - Cotton prices fluctuated widely, and trading was still light. In the week ending March 13, cotton futures and spot prices fluctuated widely and generally rose. Spot point - price trading was generally cold, and only improved after the decline of Zhengzhou cotton on Friday. When Zhengzhou cotton was strong during the week, the fixed - price spot trading was relatively good. The high basis of cotton spot decreased slightly, and the mainstream basis in the market was temporarily stable [11] - As of March 13, there were 12,506 registered warehouse receipts and 285 pending warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton, totaling 12,791 receipts, equivalent to 537,222 tons. There were 259 registered warehouse receipts of domestic - produced cotton and 12,247 of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season [11] - Downstream trading and prices continued to improve. The pure - cotton yarn market was booming, and most orders of inland spinning mills were scheduled for more than one month later. The shipment of downstream weaving mills was good, and the startup rate was high. The supply of yarn of 40S and above was tight, and the sales of medium - and low - count varieties also improved. The spinning mills' inventory was gradually reduced, and both Xinjiang and inland spinning mills maintained a high startup rate. The overall transaction price increased, and the cash flow of spinning mills improved. The open interest of weaving mills continued to recover, and the inventory of cotton cloth continued to decrease. The raw material inventory of weaving mills increased [12] 3.3操作建议 - ICE cotton futures are expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short - term. Further upward movement requires more fundamental drivers. Domestic cotton futures are also expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend, and reaching new highs needs new upward drivers in both domestic and international cotton markets [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2605 increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.78%. The price of the May contract of US cotton also rose, with a weekly increase of about 2.65%, and the price of the 2605 contract of cotton yarn futures increased by 1.70%. The current market is in the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April". It is expected that the upward trend of cotton prices will remain unchanged in the short term [7][13][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2605 increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.78% [7] - **Market Outlook**: According to the USDA report, in the week ending March 5, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 253,200 bales, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 370,100 bales, a 31% increase from the previous week and a 77% increase from the average level of the previous four weeks. On the domestic market, on the supply side, the port inventory increased significantly, and the inventory of Brazilian cotton in the warehouse remained at a high level. As of March 12, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports was 571,500 tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous month. On the consumption side, in the first two months, China's textile and clothing exports increased significantly. From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing export volume was $50.45 billion, a 17.6% year-on-year increase; among them, textile exports were $25.57 billion, a 20.5% year-on-year increase; clothing exports were $24.87 billion, a 14.8% year-on-year increase. At the same time, the demand in the textile industry in March is slowly starting, and textile enterprises continue to resume production. It is expected that the upward trend of cotton prices will remain unchanged in the short term [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: This week, the price of the May contract of US cotton increased, with a weekly increase of about 2.65%. As of March 3, 2026, the non-commercial long positions of US cotton were 112,260 lots, an increase of 8,836 lots from the previous week; the non-commercial short positions were 140,357 lots, an increase of 7,963 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 28,097 lots, a decrease of 873 lots from the previous week [13] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending March 5, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 253,200 bales, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, the international cotton spot price was 75.75 cents per pound, a 1.25-cent increase from the previous week [17] - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of the 2605 contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.78%. The 2605 contract of cotton yarn futures increased by 1.70%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were -217,834 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures were -1,323 lots. As of this week, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 12,506, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 320 [24][30][37] - **Spot Market**: As of March 13, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,877 yuan per ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 22,000 yuan per ton, the CY index: OEC10s (rotor yarn) was 15,450 yuan per ton; the CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 25,000 yuan per ton [44][55] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of March 12, the sliding duty price of imported cotton was reported at 13,774 yuan per ton, a 141-yuan increase from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was reported at 12,664 yuan per ton, a 219-yuan increase from the previous week. As of March 12, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick-up price: C21S was 20,583 yuan per ton; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick-up price: C32S was 21,967 yuan per ton; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick-up price: JC32S was 23,630 yuan per ton [61] - **Imported Cotton Price Cost and Profit**: As of March 12, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding duty was 2,894 yuan per ton, a 44-yuan decrease from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 2,381 yuan per ton, a 122-yuan decrease from the previous week [65] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a 23.51% month-on-month increase and a 1.75% year-on-year increase; at the end of December, the in-warehouse industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [68] - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a 60,000-ton increase from the previous month and a 31% year-on-year increase; from January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a 59.1% year-on-year decrease. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was 170,000 tons, a 60,000-ton increase from the previous month and a 20,000-ton increase from the same period last year [72] - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of January 31, 2026, the inventory days of yarn were reported at 21.71 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were reported at 33.13 days, a 1.87% month-on-month decrease [75] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Clothing Export Volume**: From January to February 2026, China's textile and clothing export volume was $50.45 billion, a 17.6% year-on-year increase; among them, textile exports were $25.57 billion, a 20.5% year-on-year increase; clothing exports were $24.87 billion, a 14.8% year-on-year increase [80] - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Clothing Retail Sales Cumulative Volume**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales value of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was reported at 166.1 billion yuan, a 7.75% month-on-month increase [84] 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was presented in the report, but no specific data was given [85] - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The report presented the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis was given [88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 decreased, with a weekly decline of about 0.65%. The export signing volume of US cotton decreased, while the export shipment volume increased. In the domestic market, the port inventory increased significantly due to the large - scale arrival of cotton, increasing the supply - side pressure. As of March 5, the inventory of major ports for imported cotton was 55.65 tons, a 3.42% increase from the previous period. The downstream consumption is gradually recovering, mainly shipping previous orders, with limited new orders. The inventory of finished products has decreased, and the pressure is limited. Considering the "Golden March and Silver April" traditional consumption season, the short - term upward trend of cotton prices is expected to remain unchanged [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.65% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: According to the USDA report, in the week ending February 26, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 150,420 bales, a 416% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 282,200 bales, a 46% increase from the previous week and a 43% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. In the domestic market, the supply - side pressure increased, and the downstream consumption was gradually recovering. The short - term upward trend of cotton prices was expected to remain unchanged [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: As of February 24, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 103,424 contracts, an increase of 3,841 contracts from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 132,394 contracts, a decrease of 22,922 contracts from the previous week; the net short position was 28,970 contracts, a decrease of 26,763 contracts from the previous week. The price of the May contract of US cotton decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.89% [12]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending February 26, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 150,420 bales, a 416% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [15]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.65%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract decreased by 0.19%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 189,104 contracts, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 1,377 contracts. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,443, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [19][25][29]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou Cotton 5 - 9 contracts was - 50 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,242 yuan/ton [36]. - **Spot Market**: As of March 6, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,678 yuan/ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,920 yuan/ton, the CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,380 yuan/ton, and the CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 24,700 yuan/ton [41][52]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of March 5, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,633 yuan/ton, a decrease of 268 yuan/ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 438 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 4, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,509 yuan/ton; C32S was 21,834 yuan/ton; JC32S was 23,500 yuan/ton [58]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost and Profit**: As of March 5, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - duty was 2,938 yuan/ton, an increase of 158 yuan/ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 2,379 yuan/ton, an increase of 328 yuan/ton from the previous week [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a 23.51% increase from the previous month and a 1.75% increase from the same period last year. At the end of December, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [64]. - **Supply - Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month and a 31% increase from the same period last year. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a 59.1% decrease from the same period last year. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was 170,000 tons, a 60,000 - ton increase from the previous month and a 20,000 - ton increase from the same period last year [68]. - **Mid - end Industry - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of January 31, 2026, the inventory days of yarn were 21.71 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth were 33.13 days, a 1.87% decrease from the previous period [71]. - **Terminal Consumption - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a 7.4% decrease from the same period last year and an 8.9% increase from the previous month. Among them, textile exports were 12.58 billion US dollars, a 4.2% decrease from the same period last year; garment exports were 13.41 billion US dollars, a 10.2% decrease from the same period last year [75]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, a 7.75% increase from the previous month [79]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week is presented in the figure [80]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is presented in the figure [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures showed a mixed trend this week, rising first and then falling, with a doji on the weekly chart. The lack of new drivers and poor US cotton weekly export data led to the decline. The domestic cotton futures rose significantly after the long holiday, mainly driven by technical buying. Although the spot trading was light due to the incomplete resumption of work in downstream textile enterprises and sufficient raw material inventory in yarn mills before the festival, the demand and price of cotton are still expected to be optimistic based on the changes in commercial inventory and industry sentiment. The current factors limiting the rise of cotton futures are the lack of new drivers and concerns about increased cotton and cotton yarn imports due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a relatively strong trend, and attention should be paid to the actual demand for cotton spot and the planting situation of new crops from March to April [1][5][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: The opening price was 65.50, the highest price was 66.38, the lowest price was 64.99, the closing price was 65.56, with a change of 0.01 and a change rate of 0.02%. The trading volume was 152,839 lots, a decrease of 4,802 lots, and the open interest was 168,188 lots, a decrease of 7,470 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: The opening price was 14,875, the highest price was 15,665, the lowest price was 14,835, the closing price was 15,395, with a change of 655 and a change rate of 4.44%. The trading volume was 2,373,333 lots, an increase of 1,101,808 lots, and the open interest was 837,980 lots, an increase of 171,049 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract: The opening price was 20,585, the highest price was 21,555, the lowest price was 20,585, the closing price was 21,245, with a change of 715 and a change rate of 3.48%. The trading volume was 55,788 lots, an increase of 13,902 lots, and the open interest was 14,494 lots, an increase of 3,847 lots [4] 3.2基本面 3.2.1国际棉花情况 - ICE cotton: It rose first and then fell this week, with a doji on the weekly chart. The rise at the beginning of the week was influenced by the previous Friday's upward trend and the sharp rise of Chinese cotton futures, but the decline on Thursday was due to the pullback of Chinese cotton futures and poor US cotton weekly export data [5] - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending February 19, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 46% decrease from the previous week and a 12% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 6,700 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 43,800 tons, a 12% increase from the previous week but a 10% decrease from the four - week average. The total signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0507 million tons, accounting for 79% of the annual forecast total export volume (2.61 million tons), and the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.0358 million tons, accounting for 51% of the annual total signing volume [5] - Other cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: From August to December, cotton imports increased significantly year - on - year under the tax - reduction policy. As of now this quarter, the Cotton Corporation of India has purchased about 4.91 million tons of seed cotton, equivalent to about 1.72 million tons of lint cotton. In December, the raw cotton import volume was 259,000 tons, a 53% increase from November and more than three times the import volume of the same period last year. The raw cotton export volume in December was 24,000 tons, a 13% decrease from the previous month and a 31% decrease from the same period last year. The total raw cotton export volume in the first five months of this year was 113,000 tons. The yarn export volume in December was 101,000 tons, a 12% increase from the previous month and a 5% increase from the same period in 2024. The total yarn export volume in the first five months of this production season was 454,000 tons. The textile export value in December was $1.94 billion, a 12% increase from the previous month but a 3% decrease from the same period last year. The total textile export value since April 2025 was $16.07 billion, a 1.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [6] - Brazil: CONAB continued to slightly lower the forecast of Brazil's cotton production in 2026. As of the week ending February 20, the sowing progress in Mato Grosso state reached 99.5% of the expected total area, the same as last year. About 68% of the crops were sown within the ideal window period, about 14 percentage points higher than the previous sowing season. As of February 19, the national sowing progress was basically the same as that in Mato Grosso state, reaching 98.6% of the planned area [7] - Bangladesh: It is waiting for the talks with the US in early March. High inflation, energy supply problems, and the banking dilemma are still affecting textile enterprises and producers. The market expects a more stable policy environment under the new government to improve the current situation [9] - Pakistan: The demand for cotton imports is stable. As the local cotton supply decreases, some textile enterprises with raw material shortages have to purchase from the international market. Recently, the demand for local yarn has improved, but due to the increase in raw material replenishment costs, textile enterprises are cautious about shipping, and downstream manufacturers are also cautious about price increases. With the return of Chinese buyers after the Spring Festival, the export market has shown some improvement [9] - Southeast Asian textile industry chain startup situation: As of the week ending February 27, the startup rate of textile enterprises in India was 69.5%, the same as last week and in February, and the average monthly startup rate in January was 68.18%. The startup rate of textile enterprises in Vietnam was 68.5% this week, up from 60% last week, and the average monthly startup rate in February was 65.67%, and it was 63.78% in January. The startup rate of textile enterprises in Pakistan was 69.5% this week, the same as last week and in February, and the average monthly startup rate in January was 66.82% [10] 3.2.2国内棉花情况 - Cotton price and trading: In the week ending February 27, the prices of cotton futures and spot increased significantly and then slightly declined. The overall trading of cotton spot was average, mainly in one - price transactions, mostly by traders. The spot point - price trading of cotton was light. Before the festival, textile enterprises purchased a large amount of cotton raw materials, so they are mainly in a wait - and - see mode after the festival. The one - price of 2025/26 northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 increased from around 16,200 to around 16,700 - 16,750. The low - basis of cotton spot decreased compared with before the festival, and some high - basis decreased by about 30 - 40 yuan/ton after the rise of Zhengzhou cotton, and many bases remained stable [11] - Cotton warehouse receipt situation: As of February 27, the registered warehouse receipts of No. 1 cotton were 11,172, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 1,244, totaling 12,416, equivalent to 521,472 tons. Among them, there were 252 registered warehouse receipts of domestic cotton and 10,920 of Xinjiang cotton (including 1,620 in northern Xinjiang warehouses, 1,263 in southern Xinjiang warehouses, and 8,037 in inland warehouses) [11] - Downstream situation: The pure - cotton yarn market has not fully recovered, mainly for restocking and fulfilling previous orders. Affected by Zhengzhou cotton, the price of pure - cotton yarn increased, and the trading center shifted up by about 200 - 500. The trading of low - count yarn and air - jet spun yarn was light, while the trading of 40 - count and above yarn recovered relatively quickly. The inventory increased due to the incomplete recovery of logistics, but new orders are gradually increasing, and it is expected that inventory will decrease in the future. The startup rate in Xinjiang remained high, and inland textile enterprises are gradually resuming work, with the startup rate gradually rising. The immediate cash flow of textile enterprises is relatively poor. The theoretical immediate cash flow of Xinjiang textile enterprises is about 800 yuan/ton, and that of inland textile enterprises is about - 850 yuan/ton, but the actual cash - flow loss of inland textile enterprises is about - 100 yuan/ton due to sufficient cotton reserves before the festival. The full - cotton grey fabric market is mainly in the process of resuming work, and the trading has not fully started. The current startup rate is about 52.3%. The fabric mills are mainly producing and delivering pre - festival orders, and it is expected that the market trading will increase after the Lantern Festival. The prices have been adjusted up by about 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter, but there are few inquiries from downstream and few deals [12] 3.3操作建议 - ICE cotton futures are still in a low - level oscillating trend due to the lack of upward drivers. Attention should be paid to the US cotton weekly export data and the new crops of Brazilian and US cotton. Domestic cotton futures rose significantly after the long holiday, mainly driven by technical buying. Due to the incomplete resumption of work in downstream textile enterprises and sufficient raw material inventory in yarn mills before the festival, the spot trading is light. Attention should be paid to the actual trading situation of cotton spot in the next few weeks. Based on the changes in commercial inventory and industry sentiment, the demand and price of cotton are still expected to be optimistic. The current factors limiting the rise of cotton futures are the lack of new drivers and concerns about increased cotton and cotton yarn imports due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a relatively strong trend, and attention should be paid to the actual demand for cotton spot and the planting situation of new crops from March to April [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 1.10%. The US cotton 5 - month contract price also rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.87%. The cotton yarn futures 2605 contract rose by 0.61% [5][12][21] - The US cotton export signing volume and shipment volume both decreased this week. In the domestic market, the supply of domestic and imported cotton is sufficient, and the inventory of imported cotton in ports has increased. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream stocking has decreased. However, there is a general expectation of a reduction in cotton planting area, which provides strong support for cotton prices. Considering the upcoming long - holiday, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [5] - Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.10% [5] - **Market Outlook**: The US cotton export signing volume and shipment volume decreased. In the domestic market, supply is sufficient, downstream stocking decreased, but the expected reduction in cotton planting area supports cotton prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to foreign cotton price changes, demand, and inventory [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The US cotton 5 - month contract price rose by about 1.87% this week. As of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 101,788 lots, an increase of 5,316 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 144,532 lots, an increase of 9,093 lots; the net short positions were 42,744 lots, an increase of 3,777 lots [12] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of the week ending February 5, the net increase in US upland cotton export sales was 231,000 bales, a decrease of 8% from the previous week and 23% from the average of the previous four weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 73.3 cents per pound, an increase of 0.15 cents per pound from last week [15] - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract rose by about 1.10% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2605 contract rose by 0.61%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 113,217 lots, and that of cotton yarn futures was - 864 lots. The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures warehouse receipts were 11,001 lots, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 0 lots [21][26][30] - **Spot Market**: As of February 13, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,119 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 21,520 yuan per ton [38][49] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of February 12, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,615 yuan per ton, an increase of 31 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,418 yuan per ton, an increase of 61 yuan per ton. The imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for C21S was 20,293 yuan per ton, C32S was 21,557 yuan per ton, and JC32S was 23,300 yuan per ton [55] - **Imported Cotton Price Cost and Profit**: As of February 12, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - duty was 2,414 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 2,069 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan per ton [58] 3. Industry Situation - **Supply - Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.51% and a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. At the end of December, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [61] - **Supply - Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 31%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [65] - **Mid - End Industry - Demand - Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of December, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 25.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 days. The grey cloth inventory was 33.8 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.4 days [68] - **Terminal Consumption - Demand - Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. Among them, textile exports were 12.58 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; garment exports were 13.41 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2% [72] - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand - Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales Cumulative Volume**: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales value of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was 166.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.75% [76] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week [77] - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongfa**: The price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongfa [80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined, with a weekly decline of about 0.17%. The 2603 contract of cotton yarn futures decreased by 0.05%. Considering the approaching Spring Festival, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term [5][20] - According to the prediction of ABARES, the cotton output in Australia in the 2025/26 season is 943,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23%, and the planting area is 406,000 hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 22%. However, the high yield in other regions offsets the output loss, and the overall output is still 9% higher than the average of the past decade [5] - In the domestic market, the quantity of inspected cotton has exceeded 7.2 million tons, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing. The trading volume of imported cotton has slowed down due to the approaching Spring Festival. As of January 29, the inventory of imported cotton in main ports increased by 4.25% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 495,400 tons [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined, with a weekly decline of about 0.17% [5] - **Market Outlook**: Australian cotton output and planting area decreased in the 2025/26 season. In the domestic market, the supply pressure is increasing, and the trading volume of imported cotton has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 US Cotton Market - The price of the March contract of US cotton declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.99% [11] - As of January 20, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 92,421 lots, an increase of 3,587 lots from the previous week; non - commercial short positions were 118,245 lots, an increase of 1,980 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 25,824 lots, a decrease of 1,607 lots from the previous week [11] 3.2.2 Foreign Cotton Spot Market - In the week ending January 22, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 203,700 bales, a decrease of 51% from the previous week and 17% from the average of the previous four weeks [15] - The international cotton spot price this week was 74.15 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.4 cents per pound from last week [15] 3.2.3 Futures Market - The price of the 2605 contract of Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined, with a weekly decline of about 0.17%. The 2603 contract of cotton yarn futures decreased by 0.05% [20] - As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in the cotton futures was - 136,670 lots, and that in the cotton yarn futures was - 1,793 lots [27] - As of this week, the number of cotton futures warrants in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 10,289, and the number of cotton yarn futures warrants was 0 [33] 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of January 30, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,183 yuan per ton [41] - As of January 30, 2026, the spot price of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,430 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (air - spun yarn) was 15,200 yuan per ton, and CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 24,350 yuan per ton [52] 3.2.5 Price Difference and Basis - This week, the price difference between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou cotton was - 140 yuan per ton, and the price difference between the spot price of cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,247 yuan per ton [36] - This week, the basis between the price index of cotton 3128B and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was + 1,513 yuan per ton. The basis between the spot price of cotton yarn C32S and the 2603 contract of cotton yarn futures was 935 yuan per ton [46] 3.2.6 Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost - As of January 29, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 13,671 yuan per ton, a decrease of 13 yuan per ton from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,502 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan per ton from last week [58] - As of January 29, the import price index of cotton yarn (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,249 yuan per ton; C32S was 21,490 yuan per ton; JC32S was 23,250 yuan per ton [58] 3.2.7 Imported Cotton Profit - As of January 29, the estimated profit of imported cotton under the sliding - duty system was 2,262 yuan per ton, an increase of 127 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton under the quota system was 1,892 yuan per ton, an increase of 126 yuan per ton from last week [61] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.51% and a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. The in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of last month [64] - In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 31%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn was 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [68] 3.3.2 Mid - end Industry - As of the end of December, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 25.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 days. The grey fabric inventory was 33.8 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.4 days [71] 3.3.3 Terminal Consumption - In December 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. Among them, textile exports were 12.58 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; clothing exports were 13.41 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2% [75] - As of December 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, needles, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.75% [79] 3.4 Options and Stock Market - related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options of cotton this week is presented in relevant charts [80] - **Stock Market**: The price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is presented in relevant charts [83]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2605 increased with a weekly gain of about 0.72%. Considering the boost from holiday stockpiling and the reduction in cotton planting area, it is expected that the cotton price will still maintain a possible upward trend in the future [5]. - According to a report from a Brazilian authority, in December 2025, Brazil exported 452,500 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. In the first five months of the 2025/26 season, the cumulative export was 1.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7%, reaching the highest export volume from August to December in history [5]. - As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 5.7847 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.51% and a year - on - year slight increase of 1.75%, at a high level in the same period. However, driven by the combination of downstream rigid demand replenishment and the expectation of reduced planting in the future, the short - term inventory pressure is expected to be controllable [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2605 increased this week, with a weekly gain of about 0.72% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Brazil's cotton exports increased significantly in December 2025 and the first five months of the 2025/26 season. China's commercial cotton inventory was at a high level at the end of December 2025, but the short - term inventory pressure is controllable. The cotton price is expected to maintain a possible upward trend [5]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory conditions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton March contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.32%. As of January 13, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 88,834 lots, an increase of 7,425 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 116,265 lots, an increase of 5,936 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 27,431 lots, a decrease of 1,489 lots from the previous week [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: In the week ending January 8, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season reached 339,700 bales, a high for the season. The international cotton spot price this week was 74.55 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.5 cents per pound from last week [17]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2605 contract increased this week, with a weekly gain of about 0.72%, while the price of the cotton yarn futures 2603 contract decreased by 0.15%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 164,119 lots, and in cotton yarn futures were - 1,836 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 9,972, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 0 [21][27][31]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 23, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,870 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,320 yuan per ton [42][53]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of January 22, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13,684 yuan per ton, a decrease of 51 yuan per ton from last week; the import cotton quota price was 12,514 yuan per ton, a decrease of 102 yuan per ton from last week. The import cotton yarn price indices for different varieties were also provided [59]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of January 22, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,135 yuan per ton, a decrease of 100 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,828 yuan per ton, a decrease of 49 yuan per ton from last week [62]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of December 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7847 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.51% and a year - on - year slight increase of 1.75%. At the end of December, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, an increase of 44,200 tons from the end of the previous month [67]. - **Supply - Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In December 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 31%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton import volume was 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. In December 2025, China's imported cotton yarn volume was 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand - Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of November, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days from the previous month [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand - Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In December 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 25.99 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. Among them, textile exports were 12.58 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%; clothing exports were 13.41 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2% [79]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand - Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [83]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week was presented in the report, but specific data was not mentioned [84]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was shown in the report, but specific data was not mentioned [87].