Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have shown slight fluctuations, with a current price of 67.61 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.03% increase from the opening price [1] - On August 14, the opening price for cotton futures was 67.70 cents per pound, with a closing price of 67.69 cents per pound, indicating a decrease of 0.19% [2] - The highest price during the trading session on August 14 reached 68.00 cents per pound, while the lowest was 67.41 cents per pound [2] Group 2 - According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of August 8, the number of unpriced sell orders for U.S. cotton was 49,251 contracts, a decrease of 977 contracts from the previous period [2] - The number of unpriced buy orders increased by 3,788 contracts to 108,917 contracts [2] - As of August 14, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,195 contracts, a decrease of 92 contracts from the previous trading day [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that for the week ending August 7, net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 242,000 bales, compared to -17,000 bales the previous week [2] - For the 2026/2027 marketing year, net sales were 1,000 bales, down from 109,000 bales the previous week [2]

Group 1 - The international raw sugar futures are fluctuating between 15.5 - 17 cents per pound, pressured by Brazil's high sugar-to-ethanol ratio, leading to weak prices [1] - Brazil's 25/26 sugar season is expected to have low yield and sugar content, and if the sugar-to-ethanol ratio declines, production may fall short of expectations, potentially supporting international sugar prices [1] - Long-term outlook suggests that if Brazil, India, and Thailand increase production, the raw sugar supply and demand will become more relaxed [1] Group 2 - Domestic sugar market lacks fundamental trading topics, with focus shifting to imported sugar; July sugar imports may increase, putting pressure on futures [1] - It is anticipated that by the end of the third quarter, domestic sugar supply pressure will increase, leading to potential backwardation in distant contracts, with a recommendation to short on rallies [1] Group 3 - Cotton prices initially rose and then fell in July, with the rise attributed to macro sentiment and subsequent profit-taking by funds [1] - As of the end of July, national cotton commercial inventory is depleting quickly, and low inventory from old crops supports cotton prices, while strong expectations for new crop yields are present [1] - Demand side shows some improvement, with the macro context of delayed US-China tariffs suggesting short-term cotton prices may remain volatile but biased towards strength [1] Group 4 - In the medium term, continuous negative feedback from downstream enterprises and increasing pressure from new crop listings may lead to a shift in market logic, potentially resulting in price declines [1] - Overall, cotton prices are expected to be strong initially and then weaken, with a recommendation for high short positions [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) declined with a weekly drop of about 4.13%, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) fell 3.09%. Internationally, due to poor US cotton export data and a stronger US dollar, the US cotton futures price has been falling. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with no news about quotas yet, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched. However, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with spinning mills having no profit, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and more cautious raw material procurement. In terms of new crops, China's cotton planting area has increased in 2025, and the weather theme has cooled down. Overall, although the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, the downstream demand is weak, the area and output of new crops are increasing, the weather theme has cooled down, and there are expectations for quotas. Therefore, the cotton 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies and pay attention to risk control [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) dropped about 4.13% this week, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) declined 3.09% [7]. - **International Situation**: US cotton futures prices have been falling due to poor export data and a stronger US dollar. As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US 2024/25 market - year upland cotton export sales was 39,100 bales, a sharp drop from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in 2025/26 market - year upland cotton export sales was 71,700 bales [7]. - **Domestic Situation**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before new cotton is launched, and there is no news about quotas. The textile industry is in a consumption off - season, spinning mills have no profit, the operating rate is declining, and raw material procurement is cautious. China's cotton planting area has increased in 2025, and the weather theme has cooled down [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The cotton 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies and pay attention to risk control [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.95%. As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton was 64,278 contracts, a 0.54% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short - position was 91,528 contracts, a 2.82% increase; the CFTC net position of US cotton was - 27,250 contracts, a 8.64% decrease [10]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US 2024/25 market - year upland cotton export sales was 39,100 bales, a sharp drop from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in 2025/26 market - year upland cotton export sales was 71,700 bales. As of July 29, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.8 cents per pound, a 0.13% increase from the previous period [16]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) dropped about 4.13% this week, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) declined 3.09%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 18,064 contracts, and that in cotton yarn futures was 21 contracts. The cotton futures warehouse receipts were 8,807 contracts, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 89 contracts [21][26][31]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 1, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,260 yuan per ton. As of July 31, 2025, the CY index of OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton. As of August 1, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,680 yuan per ton [38][50]. - **Futures - Spot Spread**: This week, the spread between Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contracts was - 200 yuan per ton, and the spread between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,420 yuan per ton [35]. - **Futures Basis**: This week, the basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract was + 1,675 yuan per ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract was 940 yuan per ton [45]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Price**: As of July 30, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,616 yuan per ton, a 0.89% decrease from the previous period; the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,360 yuan per ton, a 0.62% decrease. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was 21,230 yuan per ton, a 0.09% decrease; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C21S was 20,195 yuan per ton, a 0.08% decrease; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:JC32S was 23,110 yuan per ton, a 0.04% decrease [53]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of July 30, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 1,110 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,854 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: As of June, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a 18.18% decrease from the previous period. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a 1.17% decrease from the previous period. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were about 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. In June 2025, China's cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative cotton yarn imports were 670,000 tons [60][64]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a 6.8% increase from the previous period, and the坯布 inventory was 35.46 days, a 7.81% increase from the previous period [68]. - **Terminal Consumption**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a 4.62% decrease from the previous period; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, a 12.44% increase from the previous period. As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles were 742.59 billion yuan, a 20.98% increase from the previous period; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 3.1%, a 6.06% decrease from the previous period [72][76]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not mentioned [77]. - **Stock Market**: The report mentions the Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis data is provided [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. It currently lacks fundamental guidance, with trading light and remaining in a volatile pattern. The US cotton growth is good, and export sales are in line with seasonal patterns. The tariff negotiations between the US and other countries also meet expectations. For domestic cotton futures, they maintained high - level volatility this week. The concern about tight old - crop inventory has been fully traded, and factors such as potential low - value warehouse receipts for September delivery and a cooling financial market sentiment have stopped the upward momentum. In the short term, the expectation of tight old - crop inventory will support prices, and as long as the textile enterprise operating rate does not drop significantly, cotton demand will be stable, with limited downward pressure on cotton prices. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the market game under the delivery logic after mid - August [1][2][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 68.74, reached a high of 68.99, a low of 67.80, closed at 68.23, down 0.53 or - 0.77%. The trading volume was 74,713 lots, a decrease of 14,474 lots, and the open interest was 154,997 lots, an increase of 2,253 lots. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 14,295, reached a high of 14,330, a low of 14,095, closed at 14,170, down 100 or - 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,226,001 lots, a decrease of 230,373 lots, and the open interest was 504,805 lots, a decrease of 75,968 lots. - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 20,540, reached a high of 20,540, a low of 20,270, closed at 20,370, down 150 or - 0.73%. The trading volume was 48,652 lots, an increase of 9,334 lots, and the open interest was 10,802 lots, a decrease of 8,256 lots [5] 3.2.基本面 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: Narrowly fluctuated this week, with good US cotton new - crop growth, average but seasonally - compliant export sales, and tariff negotiations in line with expectations. Trading was light due to lack of fundamental guidance [6] - US cotton weekly export sales data (as of July 17): 2024/25 US upland cotton net weekly signing was - 0.74 million tons due to contract cancellations. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 3.01 million tons. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 4.19 million tons, up 18% week - on - week but down 12% from the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.7746 billion tons, accounting for 108% of the annual predicted total export volume. The cumulative export shipment volume was 2.539 billion tons, accounting for 92% of the annual total signed volume [6] - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: Sowing progress was slower than last year. As of July 18, the cotton planting area was 9.86 million hectares. Cotton sales by the Cotton Corporation of India were suspended. In May, raw cotton imports were 50,000 tons, up 10% from April and higher than last year. The cumulative import volume in the first ten months of this season was 569,000 tons. May raw cotton exports were 21,000 tons, down 4% from the previous month and 47% from May 2024. May cotton yarn exports were 83,900 tons, down 4% from April and 8% from last year. May textile exports were $2.013 billion, up 5% month - on - month and 10% from May 2024 [7] - Brazil: The US tariff increase on Brazil raised concerns in the domestic textile industry. As of July 18, the national cotton picking progress was about 15%. The 2024 - season cotton primary sales were almost completed, and about 70% of the 2025 - season and 25% of the 2026 - season cotton had been sold [8] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand was weak. The new - season cotton output was expected to be between 6.5 and 7.5 million bales. The policy of an 18% sales tax on cotton and cotton yarn imports was yet to be implemented, causing market uncertainty. In June, the export value of the five major textile categories was $1.27 billion, slightly higher than May and up 9% from last year. The cumulative export value in the 2024/25 fiscal year was $14.74 billion, up 8% from 2023/24 [9][10] - Bangladesh: Focused on US tariff negotiations. Textile mills mainly purchased for near - term needs. The government cancelled the 2% advance income tax on imported raw materials. Exporters to the US were worried as the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline approached. If no agreement was reached, a 35% tariff would be imposed on imports from Bangladesh [10] - Southeast Asian textile industry operating rates: As of July 25, India's textile enterprise operating rate was 73.5%, Vietnam's was 64%, and Pakistan's was 63.5% [11] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot price: Slightly declined with weak trading. Some 2023/24 and 2024/25 cotton spot quotes increased, and some cotton merchants lowered the basis [12] - Cotton warehouse receipts (as of July 25): There were 9,265 registered first - grade cotton warehouse receipts and 350 pending warehouse receipts, totaling 9,615, equivalent to 403,830 tons. Among the 24/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 8,891 Xinjiang cottons and 374 local cottons [12] - Downstream trading: Slightly improved. In the pure - cotton yarn market, most spinning mills' quotes were stable, with actual transactions approaching quotes. Air - jet spinning sales were relatively good. Spinning mills' profits remained unimproved, and some continued to limit production. In the all - cotton grey fabric market, the off - season continued, with some local orders and stable quotes. Some weaving mills increased their operating rates, but overall it remained low. Inventory decreased slightly but remained high [13] 3.3.操作建议 - ICE cotton: Maintain a volatile trend. There is no new downside risk currently, but the good US cotton growth and uncertain global cotton consumption limit its upward momentum. It needs a driver to break through the oscillation range. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations between the US and China, India, etc. - Domestic cotton futures: Short - term support from the expectation of tight old - crop inventory. As long as the textile enterprise operating rate does not drop significantly, cotton demand will be stable, and the downward pressure on cotton prices is limited. Technically, pay attention to the 13,600 - 13,900 support range. Also, pay attention to policy trends and the market game under the delivery logic after mid - August [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) both declined, with weekly decreases of about 0.7% and 0.73% respectively [7][21]. - Internationally, there is a lack of strong factors guiding the US cotton market, which is fluctuating. The third round of China - US trade negotiations will be held, and trade dynamics should be monitored [7]. - Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched. The inventory of imported cotton in major ports has decreased, while the demand side shows obvious signs of the off - season in the textile industry, with reduced profitability and lower operating rates of spinning enterprises [7]. - In 2025, the overall cotton planting area in China has increased, but there is a high risk of heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang due to high - temperature weather [7]. - Overall, as prices rise, downstream procurement becomes more cautious, and the upward momentum of the market is weakening. However, the tight supply provides strong support, and the market is expected to adjust strongly. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to weather and trade relations [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) declined this week, with decreases of about 0.7% and 0.73% respectively [7][21]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, the US cotton market is fluctuating. Domestically, cotton supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, and the textile industry is in the off - season. The overall market is expected to adjust strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather conditions [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased slightly this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.28%. As of July 15, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 0.89% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.40% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 15.67% month - on - month [11]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 17, the net export sales of US cotton in the current market year decreased by 32,700 bales, and the net export sales in the next market year increased by 132,600 bales. The export shipments increased by 18% compared with the previous week. As of July 22, the Cotlook:A index was 78.65 cents per pound, a 1.01% decrease month - on - month [16]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) and the cotton yarn futures contract (2509) declined this week. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 futures traders in cotton was - 39,736, and that in cotton yarn was - 394 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,265, and that of cotton yarn was 96 [21][27][33]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 25, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,549 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,740 yuan per ton. As of July 23, 2025, the CY index: OEC10s (air - spun yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton [41][54]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 23, 2025, the import price index of cotton (FC Index):M: 1% quota port pick - up price was 13,728 yuan per ton, a 0.26% increase month - on - month; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,438 yuan per ton, a 0.17% increase month - on - month. The import price index of cotton yarn (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C32S was 21,203 yuan per ton, a 0.09% increase month - on - month [58]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of July 23, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 1,105 yuan per ton, and that of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,815 yuan per ton [62]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: As of June, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a 18.18% decrease month - on - month. As of June 15, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a 1.17% decrease month - on - month. In June 2025, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1% [66][70]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a 6.8% increase month - on - month, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a 7.81% increase month - on - month [74]. - **Terminal Consumption**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a 4.62% decrease month - on - month; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, a 12.44% increase month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, needles and textiles were 742.59 billion yuan, a 20.98% increase month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year was 3.1%, a 6.06% decrease month - on - month [78][82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market Correlation - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary part [83]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but specific data is not detailed in the summary part [88].

Report Overview - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment phase. The spot cotton price index has increased, and the pure - cotton yarn market price has risen, but the downstream has difficulty in increasing volume. Spinning mills are still suffering significant losses, and the operating rate has decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has few inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders [7]. - Macroeconomically, trade negotiations are approaching. Internationally, the cotton growth progress is slow but the good - quality rate is improving, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area has increased, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. Supply pressure has emerged in the short - term, but the tight commercial inventory contradiction in the 2024/25 season still exists. The short - term main contract is in a volatile adjustment, with the position shifting to the far - month contract and the 9 - 1 spread converging [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,563 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The pure - cotton yarn market price has risen, but the downstream is difficult to increase volume. Spinning mills are in large - scale losses, and the operating rate has decreased. The all - cotton grey fabric market has few inquiries and mainly small and urgent orders [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Macroeconomically, trade negotiations are approaching. Internationally, the growth progress is slow but the good - quality rate is good, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area has increased, and there is an expectation of a good harvest. The supply side has brought short - term pressure to cotton prices, but the tight commercial inventory contradiction in the 2024/25 season still exists. The short - term main contract is in a volatile adjustment, with the position shifting to the far - month contract and the 9 - 1 spread converging [8]. 3.2 Industry News - In mid - July, most parts of Xinjiang had high temperatures. Precipitation was higher in most parts of Hami and lower in the rest of Xinjiang. Sunshine hours were higher in parts of northern Xinjiang and lower in the rest. The weather was beneficial to the growth of summer corn in southern Xinjiang but not conducive to the growth of spring wheat, spring corn, cotton, and fruit [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][19]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market price rose, but the downstream was difficult to increase volume. Spinning mills' profits were still in large losses, and the operating rate decreased. The cotton fabric market had few inquiries and mostly small and urgent orders [7] - Macroscopically, trade negotiations were approaching. Internationally, the growth progress was slow but the good - quality rate was improving, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area increased year - on - year, and there was an expectation of a good harvest. Recently, the sale of old cotton increased, and the basis of new cotton decreased slightly. The short - term supply pressured cotton prices. The yarn price was strong, and the cotton yarn inventory did not accumulate. The cotton import in June was low, and the commercial inventory was still tight. The short - term main contract fluctuated and adjusted, and the 9 - 1 spread converged [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending July 20, the good - quality rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, the boll - setting rate was 33%, and the budding rate was 71% [9] - As of July 18, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.4575 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons or 5.71% from the previous week [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, various spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates [17][18][23]

Group 1 - Cotton futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 14,285.00 yuan, with a current price of 14,230.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.04% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future of cotton prices, with some expecting continued upward momentum while others predict a volatile market [2][3] Group 2 - Zheng cotton's upward movement may be limited due to alleviated high temperatures in Xinjiang, despite a strong domestic market supported by decreasing commercial inventories [2] - The market is currently facing a tight situation with high basis levels and no significant release of import quotas or stockpiles, which may sustain the upward trend if large-scale liquidation does not occur [2] - Short-term market expectations indicate a continuation of a fluctuating trend, influenced by weather conditions, demand, and current inventory levels [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose with a weekly increase of about 0.76%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. The international cotton market is affected by factors such as the US cotton export sales report and weather, while the domestic textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with weak demand and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang supports the price to fluctuate strongly. Overall, the market shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. In the international market, the US cotton export sales report was not as expected, and the favorable weather led to an increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton, suppressing the price of US cotton. In the domestic market, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and there is a high risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang, which supports the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the weak demand drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger oscillatory. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in the price of foreign cotton, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.04%. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 3, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 75,100 bales, a 217% increase compared to the previous four weeks and a 55% increase compared to the four - week average. The cotton export volume was 240,900 bales, a 6% decrease compared to the previous week and a 9% increase compared to the four - week average. As of July 8, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease [14]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 15,063, and that in cotton yarn futures was 29 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,850, and that of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 91 [19][24][31]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contract was 65 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,224 yuan per ton [32]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,266 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,490 yuan per ton. As of July 10, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [37][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 9, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M was 13,545 yuan per ton, a 0.64% month - on - month decrease; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,324 yuan per ton, a 0.37% month - on - month decrease. The port pick - up price of the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):C32S was 21,061 yuan per ton, a 0.08% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of C21S was 20,086 yuan per ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of JC32S was 22,990 yuan per ton, a 0.09% month - on - month increase [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost and Profit**: As of July 9, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 816 yuan per ton, and the cost profit of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,561 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 693,900 tons or - 16.71%, and a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons or - 8.36%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [59]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 86.3%. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 20,000 tons or 14.5%, and a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons or about 16.67%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.8% [63]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [67]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, the export of textiles was 420.14 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, and the export of clothing was 418.19 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year increase and an 8.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the export of textiles was 91 billion yuan, a 2.3% decrease and a 0.9% month - on - month increase, and the export of clothing was 97.84 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase and a 17.6% month - on - month increase [71]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [76]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract both rose, with weekly increases of about 1.96% and 1.87% respectively [6][18]. - Internationally, the decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton and the spill - over of crude oil price fluctuations boosted the US cotton market, but weak weekly export sales data dragged down the increase. The market is waiting for the USDA quarterly inventory report and planting area report [6]. - Domestically, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season. Enterprises' new orders are poor, the overall operating rate is slowly decreasing, and some spinning enterprises are in a state of inventory accumulation. The old - crop fundamentals lack driving force. However, the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in Xinjiang has led to concerns about production, driving a short - term rebound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton 2509 and cotton yarn futures 2509 rose this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, the US cotton market has mixed factors. Domestically, the textile off - season affects demand, while weather concerns drive a short - term rebound [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract rose by about 3.19% this week. As of June 17, 2025, non - commercial long and short positions changed, and the net position increased by 0.50% [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of June 12, 2025, the weekly export volume of US upland cotton decreased by 13.36% month - on - month, and the cumulative export volume increased by 2.14%. As of June 24, the international cotton spot price index rose by 1.1% [14]. - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton 2509 and cotton yarn futures 2509 rose. As of this week, the top 20 net positions of cotton futures were - 36385, and that of cotton yarn futures were - 113. The cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10302, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 2 [18][25][32]. - **Spot Market**: As of June 27, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15109 yuan/ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20380 yuan/ton [39][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of June 25, 2025, the imported cotton price index and imported cotton yarn price index all rose slightly [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of June 26, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 497 yuan/ton, and that with 1% quota was 1253 yuan/ton [54]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: In May 2025, China's cotton imports decreased year - on - year, and the national cotton commercial inventory decreased month - on - month [59][63]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of the end of May, textile enterprises' yarn and grey fabric inventories increased [67]. - **Terminal Consumption**: From January to May 2025, textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year. As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles increased by 3.3% year - on - year [71][73]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market Correlation - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton this week is presented, but no specific data is given [75]. - **Stock Market**: The report mentions the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongfa, but no specific analysis is provided [79][81].