行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 9 月 29 日 农产品研究团队 、 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉震荡偏弱。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15043 元/吨，较上一 交易日跌 40 元/吨。当前 2 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.01%. The price of the US cotton December contract increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.09%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract decreased, with a decline of about 0.55% [5][11][22] - The US 2025/26 annual upland cotton net export signing volume increased, while the shipment volume decreased. The estimated total cotton output in China in 2025 is 721.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, hitting a new high since 2013. With new cotton being sparsely available and the downstream peak season not evident, the short-term support for cotton prices has weakened [5] - Operationally, the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract should be treated with a short-term bearish mindset. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory levels [6][7] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market US Cotton Market - As of September 9, 2025, the non-commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,171 lots, a decrease of 301 lots from the previous week; the non-commercial short positions were 121,505 lots, an increase of 2,821 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 51,334 lots, an increase of 3,122 lots from the previous week [11] US Cotton Export and Spot Price - As of the week ending September 4, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current year was 129,600 bales, a 47% decrease from the previous week and a 33% decrease from the average level of the previous four weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 79.1 cents per pound, an increase of 1.25 cents per pound from the previous week [16] Futures Market - The net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were -19,591 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures were -477 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,232, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 0 [28][34] Spot Market - As of September 19, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,283 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,765 yuan per ton [42][53] Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost and Profit - As of September 18, the import cotton sliding duty price was 14,305 yuan per ton, an increase of 129 yuan per ton from the previous week; the import cotton quota price was 13,527 yuan per ton, an increase of 208 yuan per ton from the previous week. The estimated profit of imported cotton sliding duty was 1,005 yuan per ton, a decrease of 105 yuan per ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton quota was 1,783 yuan per ton, a decrease of 184 yuan per ton from the previous week [57][60] Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply Side - As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. As of July 31, the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.85% [63] - In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 66.67%. As of July, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, with no month-on-month change [70] Middle - End Industry - In July, the yarn inventory days of textile enterprises were 27.67 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.43%. The grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.95% [73] Terminal Consumption - In July 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1160.4009 million US dollars, a month-on-month decrease of 3.69%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1516.1759 million US dollars, a month-on-month decrease of 0.69% [79] - As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles were 837.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 12.73%; the cumulative year-on-year increase was 2.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.45% [83] Group 4: Options and Stock Market Options Market - The report mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week, but specific data is not provided [84] Stock Market - The report shows the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Tunhe Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (600359), but specific data is not provided [87]

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was CF01 + 1500 and above, and that of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton was in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250 [7] - The cotton yarn market was average, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than previous years. The downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and spinning mills sold at market prices. The cotton yarn price remained stable with a slow downward trend. The cotton fabric market maintained shipments, and the fabric price was stable [7] - Overseas, the expected Fed rate cut this week and the assessment of further monetary policy easing in the coming months led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting US cotton. In the domestic market, before the new cotton listing, trading volume was low, and the expected opening price was around 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The demand side had a slight reduction in finished - product inventory, and the downstream weaving mills' operation rate increased seasonally, with rigid - demand support remaining. Fundamentally, there were limited changes, and Zhengzhou cotton would continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending September 13, 2025, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 96.6%, up 9.7 percentage points from the previous week and 1.9% slower than the same period last year. As of September 11, the processing progress was 36%, and new - cotton exports declined in the short term. The quality indicators such as micronaire and strength were lower than last year [9] - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 52%, down from 54% the previous week but up from 39% in the same period last year [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including the China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc [17][18]

Report Information - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Domestically, the downstream demand in the domestic market lacks strength, the weekly start - up of the yarn end remains stable, and the profit has not been significantly repaired. Externally, the tariff suppression effect on the export market is gradually emerging, and the cumulative year - on - year export of textiles and clothing has turned from positive to negative. [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates weakly. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,286 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic cotton market has different basis quotes in different regions. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average and weaker than the same period in previous years. The price is mainly stable, with partial preferential sales. The start - up of spinning enterprises has little change, and the overall start - up level in the inland area is not high. The demand in the all - cotton grey fabric market is weakly stable, and the price of pure - cotton cloth is negotiated according to the quantity. The order volume of large - scale weaving factories is average. The home textile factories report an increase in sales volume month - on - month, but the order continuity is poor, and the price is still difficult to rise. [7] - **Overseas Market**: The weekly good - to - excellent rate of US cotton has slightly rebounded, and the net long position of CFTC funds remains at a low level with limited overall changes. Recently, affected by the heavy rain in the main cotton - producing areas of India, the external market has some support at the low level, and the market is concerned about the adjustment of the September USDA supply - demand report. [8] 2. Industry News - In August 2025, China's total textile and clothing exports were 26.539 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.0%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative total textile and clothing exports were 197.275 billion US dollars (197.616 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In August 2025, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 12.393 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. From January to August 2025, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 94.513 billion US dollars (93.042 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In August 2025, China's exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 14.146 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.1%. From January to August 2025, China's exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 102.761 billion US dollars (104.574 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. [9] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price index of Chinese cotton, spot price, futures price, basis change, spreads between different futures contracts, commercial inventory, industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates of the US dollar against the RMB and the Indian rupee. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures. [17][18][27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2601) closed higher with a weekly increase of about 1.5%, and the cotton yarn futures contract (2511) rose 0.4% [6][18]. - Internationally, the price of ICE cotton futures fluctuates repeatedly due to the influence of the US dollar. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and the spot price is firm. China's total quota for the sliding - duty tariff processing trade of cotton imports in 2025 is 200,000 tons [6]. - There are certain expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season. In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops [6]. - Before the new cotton is listed, the supply of old cotton is tight, and with the expectation of improved demand, the center of the main cotton contract has moved up slightly, but the medium - term space may be restricted by the increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton's main 2601 contract rose 1.5% this week, and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract rose 0.4% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, ICE cotton futures prices fluctuate due to the US dollar. Domestically, cotton is de - stocking, supply is tight before new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season. China's 2025 cotton planting area has increased, and weather impact on new crops should be watched. The main cotton contract may rise slightly but be restricted by new cotton production [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fluctuated this week with a weekly increase of about 0.01%. As of August 19, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions decreased by 3.28% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 8.67% month - on - month [10]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of the week ending August 21, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current market year was 179,300 bales, including a net increase of 4,400 tons in exports to the Chinese mainland. As of August 27, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.2 cents per pound, down 0.89% month - on - month [13]. - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton's main 2601 contract rose 1.5% this week, and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract rose 0.4%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 69,475, and in cotton yarn futures was - 869. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,514, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 62 [18][23][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,328 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn C32S spot index price was 20,760 yuan per ton. As of August 28, 2025, the CY index: OEC10s (air - jet yarn) was 14,820 yuan per ton [38][50]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 27, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,385 yuan per ton, down 0.79% month - on - month; the sliding - duty tariff port pick - up price was 14,220 yuan per ton, down 0.43% month - on - month. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for different varieties had no month - on - month change [55]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of August 27, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton at the sliding - duty tariff port pick - up price (M) was 1,122 yuan per ton, and at the 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,957 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [61]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton yarn import volume was 780,000 tons [65]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [69]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [73]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Clothing Retail**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly retail value of clothing was 66.85 billion yuan, down 25.57% month - on - month; the year - on - year monthly retail value of clothing was 0.2%, down 88.24% month - on - month [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - Related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided in the summary part [77]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Xinnong Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Xinnong Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided in the summary part [80].

Information Summary - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton market is experiencing a period of oscillatory adjustment. The latest price index for 328-grade cotton is 15,336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for 2024/25 northern Xinjiang local machine-picked cotton and southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine-picked cotton are provided. The cotton yarn market has a stable trading volume, with conventional yarns being the most popular, and some low-count yarns also seeing increased sales. However, spinning mills are still operating at limited capacity, and overall market confidence is weak. The cotton fabric market has not seen significant changes, with sales remaining slow and orders for weaving factories having limited recovery [7]. - In the overseas market, the weekly export sales data for US cotton has weakened, the drought coverage rate in major cotton-growing areas has increased, the good and excellent rate has slightly decreased week-on-week, and the net long position of CFTC funds remains at a low level. Therefore, the short-term trend of the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern. In the domestic market, the cotton in Xinjiang is in the boll-opening and flocculation stage, and the market is waiting for guidance from the new cotton purchase. Recently, there have been rumors that a large amount of new cotton has been pre-sold, and the expectation of a rush to purchase new cotton has increased. However, the expected stable increase in production also brings pressure on the long-term market. On the demand side, the inventory of cotton yarn products continues to decline slightly, and the sales of fabric factories are not as good as those of yarn factories. The market is still observing the performance of the traditional peak season. Overall, due to limited changes in the fundamentals, the market is expected to continue its oscillatory adjustment [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The spot price of cotton has decreased slightly, and the basis quotes for different regions are provided. The cotton yarn market has a stable trading volume, with conventional yarns being the most popular, and some low-count yarns also seeing increased sales. However, spinning mills are still operating at limited capacity, and overall market confidence is weak. The cotton fabric market has not seen significant changes, with sales remaining slow and orders for weaving factories having limited recovery [7]. - **Overseas Market**: The weekly export sales data for US cotton has weakened, the drought coverage rate in major cotton-growing areas has increased, the good and excellent rate has slightly decreased week-on-week, and the net long position of CFTC funds remains at a low level. Therefore, the short-term trend of the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The cotton in Xinjiang is in the boll-opening and flocculation stage, and the market is waiting for guidance from the new cotton purchase. Recently, there have been rumors that a large amount of new cotton has been pre-sold, and the expectation of a rush to purchase new cotton has increased. However, the expected stable increase in production also brings pressure on the long-term market. On the demand side, the inventory of cotton yarn products continues to decline slightly, and the sales of fabric factories are not as good as those of yarn factories. The market is still observing the performance of the traditional peak season. Overall, due to limited changes in the fundamentals, the market is expected to continue its oscillatory adjustment [8]. 3.2. Industry News - In Hutubi County, Xinjiang, 869,000 mu of cotton is gradually flocculating. The county's 24 cotton purchase and processing enterprises have almost completed the overhaul of their production equipment, which is expected to finish in mid-September. The funds and personnel for cotton purchase are also ready, and the purchase of new cotton is expected to start around September 20. During the purchase period, the local development and reform commission will strengthen supervision to ensure the interests of cotton farmers [9]. 3.3. Data Overview The report provides various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][19][28].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have shown slight fluctuations, with a current price of 67.61 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.03% increase from the opening price [1] - On August 14, the opening price for cotton futures was 67.70 cents per pound, with a closing price of 67.69 cents per pound, indicating a decrease of 0.19% [2] - The highest price during the trading session on August 14 reached 68.00 cents per pound, while the lowest was 67.41 cents per pound [2] Group 2 - According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of August 8, the number of unpriced sell orders for U.S. cotton was 49,251 contracts, a decrease of 977 contracts from the previous period [2] - The number of unpriced buy orders increased by 3,788 contracts to 108,917 contracts [2] - As of August 14, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,195 contracts, a decrease of 92 contracts from the previous trading day [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that for the week ending August 7, net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 242,000 bales, compared to -17,000 bales the previous week [2] - For the 2026/2027 marketing year, net sales were 1,000 bales, down from 109,000 bales the previous week [2]

Group 1 - The international raw sugar futures are fluctuating between 15.5 - 17 cents per pound, pressured by Brazil's high sugar-to-ethanol ratio, leading to weak prices [1] - Brazil's 25/26 sugar season is expected to have low yield and sugar content, and if the sugar-to-ethanol ratio declines, production may fall short of expectations, potentially supporting international sugar prices [1] - Long-term outlook suggests that if Brazil, India, and Thailand increase production, the raw sugar supply and demand will become more relaxed [1] Group 2 - Domestic sugar market lacks fundamental trading topics, with focus shifting to imported sugar; July sugar imports may increase, putting pressure on futures [1] - It is anticipated that by the end of the third quarter, domestic sugar supply pressure will increase, leading to potential backwardation in distant contracts, with a recommendation to short on rallies [1] Group 3 - Cotton prices initially rose and then fell in July, with the rise attributed to macro sentiment and subsequent profit-taking by funds [1] - As of the end of July, national cotton commercial inventory is depleting quickly, and low inventory from old crops supports cotton prices, while strong expectations for new crop yields are present [1] - Demand side shows some improvement, with the macro context of delayed US-China tariffs suggesting short-term cotton prices may remain volatile but biased towards strength [1] Group 4 - In the medium term, continuous negative feedback from downstream enterprises and increasing pressure from new crop listings may lead to a shift in market logic, potentially resulting in price declines [1] - Overall, cotton prices are expected to be strong initially and then weaken, with a recommendation for high short positions [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) declined with a weekly drop of about 4.13%, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) fell 3.09%. Internationally, due to poor US cotton export data and a stronger US dollar, the US cotton futures price has been falling. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with no news about quotas yet, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched. However, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with spinning mills having no profit, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and more cautious raw material procurement. In terms of new crops, China's cotton planting area has increased in 2025, and the weather theme has cooled down. Overall, although the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, the downstream demand is weak, the area and output of new crops are increasing, the weather theme has cooled down, and there are expectations for quotas. Therefore, the cotton 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies and pay attention to risk control [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) dropped about 4.13% this week, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) declined 3.09% [7]. - **International Situation**: US cotton futures prices have been falling due to poor export data and a stronger US dollar. As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US 2024/25 market - year upland cotton export sales was 39,100 bales, a sharp drop from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in 2025/26 market - year upland cotton export sales was 71,700 bales [7]. - **Domestic Situation**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before new cotton is launched, and there is no news about quotas. The textile industry is in a consumption off - season, spinning mills have no profit, the operating rate is declining, and raw material procurement is cautious. China's cotton planting area has increased in 2025, and the weather theme has cooled down [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The cotton 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies and pay attention to risk control [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.95%. As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton was 64,278 contracts, a 0.54% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short - position was 91,528 contracts, a 2.82% increase; the CFTC net position of US cotton was - 27,250 contracts, a 8.64% decrease [10]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US 2024/25 market - year upland cotton export sales was 39,100 bales, a sharp drop from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in 2025/26 market - year upland cotton export sales was 71,700 bales. As of July 29, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.8 cents per pound, a 0.13% increase from the previous period [16]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) dropped about 4.13% this week, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) declined 3.09%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 18,064 contracts, and that in cotton yarn futures was 21 contracts. The cotton futures warehouse receipts were 8,807 contracts, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 89 contracts [21][26][31]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 1, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,260 yuan per ton. As of July 31, 2025, the CY index of OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton. As of August 1, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,680 yuan per ton [38][50]. - **Futures - Spot Spread**: This week, the spread between Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contracts was - 200 yuan per ton, and the spread between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,420 yuan per ton [35]. - **Futures Basis**: This week, the basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract was + 1,675 yuan per ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract was 940 yuan per ton [45]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Price**: As of July 30, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,616 yuan per ton, a 0.89% decrease from the previous period; the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,360 yuan per ton, a 0.62% decrease. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was 21,230 yuan per ton, a 0.09% decrease; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C21S was 20,195 yuan per ton, a 0.08% decrease; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:JC32S was 23,110 yuan per ton, a 0.04% decrease [53]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of July 30, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 1,110 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,854 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: As of June, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a 18.18% decrease from the previous period. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a 1.17% decrease from the previous period. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were about 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. In June 2025, China's cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative cotton yarn imports were 670,000 tons [60][64]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a 6.8% increase from the previous period, and the坯布 inventory was 35.46 days, a 7.81% increase from the previous period [68]. - **Terminal Consumption**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a 4.62% decrease from the previous period; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, a 12.44% increase from the previous period. As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles were 742.59 billion yuan, a 20.98% increase from the previous period; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 3.1%, a 6.06% decrease from the previous period [72][76]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not mentioned [77]. - **Stock Market**: The report mentions the Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis data is provided [80].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. It currently lacks fundamental guidance, with trading light and remaining in a volatile pattern. The US cotton growth is good, and export sales are in line with seasonal patterns. The tariff negotiations between the US and other countries also meet expectations. For domestic cotton futures, they maintained high - level volatility this week. The concern about tight old - crop inventory has been fully traded, and factors such as potential low - value warehouse receipts for September delivery and a cooling financial market sentiment have stopped the upward momentum. In the short term, the expectation of tight old - crop inventory will support prices, and as long as the textile enterprise operating rate does not drop significantly, cotton demand will be stable, with limited downward pressure on cotton prices. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the market game under the delivery logic after mid - August [1][2][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 68.74, reached a high of 68.99, a low of 67.80, closed at 68.23, down 0.53 or - 0.77%. The trading volume was 74,713 lots, a decrease of 14,474 lots, and the open interest was 154,997 lots, an increase of 2,253 lots. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 14,295, reached a high of 14,330, a low of 14,095, closed at 14,170, down 100 or - 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,226,001 lots, a decrease of 230,373 lots, and the open interest was 504,805 lots, a decrease of 75,968 lots. - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 20,540, reached a high of 20,540, a low of 20,270, closed at 20,370, down 150 or - 0.73%. The trading volume was 48,652 lots, an increase of 9,334 lots, and the open interest was 10,802 lots, a decrease of 8,256 lots [5] 3.2.基本面 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: Narrowly fluctuated this week, with good US cotton new - crop growth, average but seasonally - compliant export sales, and tariff negotiations in line with expectations. Trading was light due to lack of fundamental guidance [6] - US cotton weekly export sales data (as of July 17): 2024/25 US upland cotton net weekly signing was - 0.74 million tons due to contract cancellations. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 3.01 million tons. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 4.19 million tons, up 18% week - on - week but down 12% from the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.7746 billion tons, accounting for 108% of the annual predicted total export volume. The cumulative export shipment volume was 2.539 billion tons, accounting for 92% of the annual total signed volume [6] - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: Sowing progress was slower than last year. As of July 18, the cotton planting area was 9.86 million hectares. Cotton sales by the Cotton Corporation of India were suspended. In May, raw cotton imports were 50,000 tons, up 10% from April and higher than last year. The cumulative import volume in the first ten months of this season was 569,000 tons. May raw cotton exports were 21,000 tons, down 4% from the previous month and 47% from May 2024. May cotton yarn exports were 83,900 tons, down 4% from April and 8% from last year. May textile exports were $2.013 billion, up 5% month - on - month and 10% from May 2024 [7] - Brazil: The US tariff increase on Brazil raised concerns in the domestic textile industry. As of July 18, the national cotton picking progress was about 15%. The 2024 - season cotton primary sales were almost completed, and about 70% of the 2025 - season and 25% of the 2026 - season cotton had been sold [8] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand was weak. The new - season cotton output was expected to be between 6.5 and 7.5 million bales. The policy of an 18% sales tax on cotton and cotton yarn imports was yet to be implemented, causing market uncertainty. In June, the export value of the five major textile categories was $1.27 billion, slightly higher than May and up 9% from last year. The cumulative export value in the 2024/25 fiscal year was $14.74 billion, up 8% from 2023/24 [9][10] - Bangladesh: Focused on US tariff negotiations. Textile mills mainly purchased for near - term needs. The government cancelled the 2% advance income tax on imported raw materials. Exporters to the US were worried as the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline approached. If no agreement was reached, a 35% tariff would be imposed on imports from Bangladesh [10] - Southeast Asian textile industry operating rates: As of July 25, India's textile enterprise operating rate was 73.5%, Vietnam's was 64%, and Pakistan's was 63.5% [11] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot price: Slightly declined with weak trading. Some 2023/24 and 2024/25 cotton spot quotes increased, and some cotton merchants lowered the basis [12] - Cotton warehouse receipts (as of July 25): There were 9,265 registered first - grade cotton warehouse receipts and 350 pending warehouse receipts, totaling 9,615, equivalent to 403,830 tons. Among the 24/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 8,891 Xinjiang cottons and 374 local cottons [12] - Downstream trading: Slightly improved. In the pure - cotton yarn market, most spinning mills' quotes were stable, with actual transactions approaching quotes. Air - jet spinning sales were relatively good. Spinning mills' profits remained unimproved, and some continued to limit production. In the all - cotton grey fabric market, the off - season continued, with some local orders and stable quotes. Some weaving mills increased their operating rates, but overall it remained low. Inventory decreased slightly but remained high [13] 3.3.操作建议 - ICE cotton: Maintain a volatile trend. There is no new downside risk currently, but the good US cotton growth and uncertain global cotton consumption limit its upward momentum. It needs a driver to break through the oscillation range. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations between the US and China, India, etc. - Domestic cotton futures: Short - term support from the expectation of tight old - crop inventory. As long as the textile enterprise operating rate does not drop significantly, cotton demand will be stable, and the downward pressure on cotton prices is limited. Technically, pay attention to the 13,600 - 13,900 support range. Also, pay attention to policy trends and the market game under the delivery logic after mid - August [18]