按照国内棉花预计产量743.2万吨（国家棉花市场监测系统2025年9月份预测）测算，截至11月13日，全 国累计采摘籽棉折皮棉730.6万吨，同比增加79.1万吨，较过去四年均值增加151.7万吨；累计交售籽棉 折皮棉697.9万吨，同比增加86.1万吨，较过去四年均值增加185.9万吨；累计加工皮棉390.7万吨，同比 增加67.0万吨，较过去四年均值增加134.2万吨；累计销售皮棉159.2万吨，同比增加105.6万吨，较过去 四年均值增加120.9万吨。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 64.53 65.10 63.96 64.21 -0.70% 【棉花市场消息速递】 北京时间11月17日，美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货价格小幅上涨，今日开盘报64.14美分/磅，现报 64.19美分/磅，涨幅0.08%，盘中最高触及64.30美分/磅，最低下探64.09美分/磅。 棉花期货行情回顾： 11月14日美国洲际交易所（ICE）棉花期货行情 截止2025年11月13日，全国2025/26年度累计公检皮棉283.12万吨（其中新疆监管类公证检验280.59万 吨），较上年度同期增长52.41万吨。 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.14」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格小幅下跌，周度跌幅约0.96%。 行情展望：国内市场：供应端，新花收购及加工进度较快，且收购接近尾声，棉花 收购价重心上抬，成本固化提供支撑。不过随着进口配额陆续发放，巴西高等级新 棉装运提速，预计10月进口量环比提升。另外当前港口库存已刷新四个月高点，到 港量较多，出货受限。需求端，10月我国纺服出口呈现同环比双降趋势，服装出口 降幅显著大于纺织品。但国内零售需求边际存在好转迹象，关注后期订单情况。总 体上，上方供应端继续施压，但下方国内需求边际好转，预计维持震荡行情。 未来交易提示： 1、关注外棉价格变化2、需求3、库存情况 「 期现市场情况」 美棉市场 图1、CFTC美棉净持仓与ICE美棉活跃合约价格走势 本周美棉3月合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约0.92%。 来源：wind 瑞达期货 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the slight increase in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with the current price at 63.87 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.50% increase from the opening price of 63.76 cents per pound [1] - On November 7, the ICE cotton futures showed a closing price of 63.68 cents per pound, down by 1.52% from the previous day, with a trading range between 63.57 and 64.74 cents per pound [2] - As of November 6, the national new cotton processing rate reached 48.0%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales rate improved by 12.2 percentage points to 18.3% [2] Group 2 - The inventory of imported cotton at major ports increased by 8.14% week-on-week, totaling 348,100 tons, with significant increases noted in certain regions [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported an increase in cotton futures warehouse receipts, rising by 291 to a total of 4,572 receipts compared to the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2601) decreased slightly, with a weekly decline of about 0.11%. The price of the December contract of US cotton also dropped, with a weekly decline of about 1.42%. The price of the 2601 contract of cotton yarn futures decreased by about 0.13% [6][14][23]. - In the US cotton - growing areas, limited rainfall is beneficial for harvesting. The release of the monthly supply - demand report next week may guide the market. In the domestic market, the picking and purchasing progress of Xinjiang cotton has accelerated, and the purchasing price has slightly decreased. The commercial inventory is gradually rising, and the inventory of imported cotton has significantly increased. The spinning processing profit has slightly improved, but new orders are still limited [6]. - Overall, the pressure of new cotton listing is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit in Xinjiang cotton supports the cotton market. The downstream demand is weak, but the tariff reduction is beneficial for cotton - textile exports, which also provides some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: In the US, limited rainfall in cotton - growing areas is good for harvesting. In China, the supply side shows that the cotton picking and purchasing in Xinjiang have accelerated, and the commercial inventory is rising. The demand side indicates that the spinning profit has improved slightly, but new orders are limited. The new cotton listing pressure is increasing, but the lower - than - expected yield per unit in Xinjiang cotton and tariff reduction for exports provide support [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton, short - term observation is recommended [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the price change of foreign cotton, demand, and inventory [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the December contract of US cotton decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.42% [14]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 2601 contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased slightly, and the 2601 contract of cotton yarn futures also declined. As of this week, the top 20 net positions of cotton futures were - 113,261 lots, and those of cotton yarn futures were - 91 lots. The warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures were 3,013 sheets, and those of cotton yarn futures were 6 sheets [23][28][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,859 yuan/ton. The national purchase price of seed cotton 3128B was 3.21 yuan/500 grams, and that in Xinjiang was 3.5 yuan/500 grams. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,520 yuan/ton [42][45][57]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of November 6, the sliding - duty price of imported cotton was 14,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week; the quota price was 13,196 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172 yuan/ton from last week. The profit estimates of imported cotton with sliding - duty and quota were 724 yuan/ton and 1,624 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase from last week [61][64]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: At the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 798,500 tons from the previous month. The in - stock industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 846,000 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 46,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6% year - on - year [69][76]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the inventory days of grey cloth were 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [79]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 1.06127 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.90% [84][88]. 3.4. Options and Stock Market - related Market - **Options Market**: There is information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of cotton this week, but no specific data is summarized in the text [89]. - **Stock Market**: There is a chart of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development, but no specific analysis is provided [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.41%. In the domestic market, the cotton picking and purchasing progress in Xinjiang has accelerated. However, due to the drought and high - temperature in some southern Xinjiang areas, the yield per unit of seed cotton is lower than expected, and the purchasing price continues to rise. The downstream demand has not fully started, orders are less than expected, and as the demand gradually enters the off - season, the market lacks confidence in future demand. Cotton textile enterprises mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude and replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Overall, the cost of new cotton supports the cotton price, but the supply exerts pressure on the upside. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the economic and trade consultations [5]. - Operationally, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see attitude towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.41% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the domestic market, the supply side shows that the cotton picking and purchasing in Xinjiang are accelerating. The yield per unit of seed cotton in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the purchasing price is rising. The demand side indicates that downstream demand has not fully recovered, orders are insufficient, and market confidence in future demand is lacking. Cotton textile enterprises replenish inventory based on rigid demand. New cotton cost supports the price, but supply pressure restricts the upside. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to economic and trade consultations [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take a short - term wait - and - see attitude towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: - The price of the December US cotton contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.90% [12]. - The price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.41%, and the price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract increased by about 0.33% [23]. - As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Cotton futures was - 121,428 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 120 lots [28]. - As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,414, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [34]. - This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou Cotton 1 - 5 contracts was - 10 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,615 yuan/ton [37]. - This week, the basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract was + 1,265 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract was 600 yuan/ton [46]. - **Spot Market**: - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,860 yuan/ton [41]. - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,475 yuan/ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,700 yuan/ton; CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,660 yuan/ton [52]. - As of October 30, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was reported at 14,202 yuan/ton, an increase of 222 yuan/ton from last week; the import cotton quota price was reported at 13,368 yuan/ton, an increase of 364 yuan/ton from last week. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,061 yuan/ton; import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C32S was 21,117 yuan/ton; import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: JC32S was 22,930 yuan/ton [56]. - As of October 30, the estimated profit of import cotton with sliding - scale duty was 641 yuan/ton, a decrease of 163 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of import cotton with quota was 1,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 305 yuan/ton from last week [59]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: - At the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 798,500 tons or 32.34% from the previous month, and a decrease of 43.87%. As of the end of September, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 846,000 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 46,000 tons month - on - month [64]. - In September 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 100,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 690,000 tons, a decrease of 1.57 million tons or 69.50% year - on - year. In September 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, the same as the previous month and an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year [71]. - **Demand Side**: - As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were reported at 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the inventory days of grey cloth were reported at 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [74]. - In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Among them, textile exports were 11.966 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.41% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%; clothing exports were 12.453 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.97% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.96% [79]. - As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were reported at 1.06127 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.90%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was reported at 3.1%, a month - on - month increase of 6.90% [83]. 3.4. Options and Stock - related Markets - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is shown in the figure of the implied volatility of the underlying of the main cotton contract [84]. - **Stock Market**: The figure shows the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. [87]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US cotton futures fluctuated, with the December contract closing at 64.18 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.11 cents per pound or 0.17% from the previous week. The price of Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, with the January contract closing at 13,540 yuan per ton, an increase of 205 yuan per ton or 1.54% from the previous week. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B rose to 14,803 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The basis weakened slightly, and the spread between Zhengzhou cotton January - May contracts strengthened slightly [9]. - Due to the US government shutdown, USDA data continued to be suspended. On October 23, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.28 yuan per kilogram, up 0.11 yuan per kilogram from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, flat compared to the previous week, 7.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [9]. - Fundamentally, the demand during the peak consumption season this year was weak, and the operating rate of the downstream industrial chain declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. There is also an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season in China, leading to significant selling hedging pressure. Although the purchase price of new cotton has increased slightly recently, driving the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, the fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected that the upward space for cotton prices in the short term is relatively limited [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: US cotton futures prices fluctuated, with the December contract closing at 64.18 cents per pound, down 0.17%. The spread between US cotton December - March contracts was - 1.53 cents per pound, down 0.03 cents per pound. Zhengzhou cotton prices rebounded slightly, with the January contract closing at 13,540 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,803 yuan per ton, up 19 yuan per ton. The basis weakened slightly to 1263 yuan per ton, down 96 yuan per ton, and the spread between Zhengzhou cotton January - May contracts strengthened to 0 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton [9]. - **Industry Information**: USDA data suspension due to the US government shutdown. Xinjiang's machine - picked cotton purchase index rose to 6.28 yuan per kilogram. The spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, showing no change from the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Weak demand during the peak season, low downstream operating rates, and expected bumper harvests with high selling hedging pressure. The recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton, but short - term upward price space is limited [9]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, Zhengzhou cotton basis, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, US cotton spreads, and other international spread trends, but no specific text analysis is provided [24]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: It shows the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton through charts [39]. - **Cotton Imports**: Displays monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton [41]. - **US Exports to China**: Presents the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of the US to China [43]. - **Cotton Yarn Imports**: Shows monthly and cumulative annual import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn [45]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Presents the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills [48]. - **National Sales Progress**: Displays the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [50]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Shows the weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory [53]. - **Spinning Mill Inventory**: Displays the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills [55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **US Situation**: Includes the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the cotton good - quality rate, double - weekly and cumulative processing volumes, production and planting area estimates, export contract progress, export shipment volumes, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [58][60][62]. - **Brazilian Situation**: Covers the planting area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [71][74]. - **Indian Situation**: Involves the planting area, production, consumption, import and export volumes, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [79][82].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Cuibing [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 1.54%. The price of the US cotton December contract fell, with a weekly decline of about 0.56%. The price of the cotton yarn 2601 futures contract rose by about 1.75% [6][10][20] - In the domestic market, the supply side shows that Xinjiang cotton has entered the large - scale harvesting stage, with the progress over 50% and faster than the same period last year. The purchase price of seed cotton first fell and then rose, and the processing cost of ginning mills increased slightly. The acquisition of inland cotton was slow due to continuous rainfall. On the demand side, the demand of downstream textile enterprises was relatively weak, and the "Silver October" replenishment did not improve significantly. The impact of trade situation on the market needs to be concerned. Currently, new cotton is on the market, and the upside of cotton prices is limited in the short term due to hedging pressure [6] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract in the short term. Future trading should pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 1.54% [6] - **Market Outlook**: In the domestic market, the supply side has different situations in Xinjiang and inland. The demand side is weak. New cotton is on the market, and the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract in the short term [7] - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell by about 0.56% this week. The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose by about 1.54%, and the cotton yarn 2601 futures contract rose by about 1.75% [10][20] - **Net Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 107,552 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 16 lots [26] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,503, and that of cotton yarn futures was 6 [32] **Spot Market** - **Cotton Spot Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,803 yuan/ton [39] - **Cotton Yarn Spot Price**: As of October 24, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,500 yuan/ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,690 yuan/ton, and CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,600 yuan/ton [48] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Price**: As of October 23, the imported cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan/ton from last week; the imported cotton price with quota was 13,004 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan/ton from last week. The imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for different varieties also had corresponding prices [54] - **Imported Cotton Profit**: As of October 23, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 804 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,780 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton from last week [57] - **Price Spreads**: This week, the price spread between Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 contracts was 0 yuan/ton, and the price spread between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S was 5,697 yuan/ton. The basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract was + 1,263 yuan/ton; the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn 2601 futures contract was 690 yuan/ton [35][44] 3. Industry Situation **Supply Side** - **Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of September 30, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons. At the end of August, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises decreased slightly, with an inventory of 892,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous month [62] - **Imported Cotton Volume**: In September 2025, China's total cotton import volume was about 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative imported cotton volume was 690,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.57 million tons or 69.50%. In September 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [68] **Demand Side** - **Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month; the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a decrease of 2.3 days from the previous month [71] - **Textile and Garment Exports**: In September 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Among them, textile exports were 11.966 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.41% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%; clothing exports were 12.453 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.97% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.96% [76] - **Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [80] 4. Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week was presented, but no specific data was given [81] - **Stock Market**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development was shown, but no specific analysis was provided [84]

Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Report Date - The report date is September 29, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated weakly. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,043 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price of the 2025/26 new cotton pre - sale blind box (mainly with double 29 and impurity within 3) was between 14,700 - 15,000 yuan on a legal weight basis, and the pre - sale basis for the same quality was between CF01 + 950 - 1100, with delivery from the end of September to the end of October [7] - In the pure cotton yarn market, the trading was average, sentiment was cautious, spinners and traders lacked confidence, inventory reduction slowed down, and yarn prices were under pressure with large losses. The overall cotton grey fabric market was stable recently. The shipment of low - count regular varieties decreased slightly compared with the previous period and was far behind the same period in previous years. Weaving factories sold at current prices [7] - In the overseas market, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton slightly decreased, the drought coverage in cotton - growing areas continued to rise, and the weekly signing data decreased month - on - month. Due to limited adjustment in supply - demand expectations, the net long position of CFTC funds remained low, and the overall market fluctuated weakly within a range. In the domestic market, the low acquisition price of machine - picked seed cotton with 42% lint percentage was about 6 - 6.2 yuan/kg, but the actual trading volume was small. Recently, due to hail and rainfall in some areas of northern Xinjiang, the new cotton acquisition was slow. The market was concerned about the price after the increase in seed cotton acquisition volume during the holiday. On the demand side, the finished product inventory still decreased steadily. Recently, the inventory reduction speed of the grey fabric end was slightly better than that of the cotton yarn end, but the overall demand was lower than the same period in previous years, and the downstream had little confidence in the traditional peak season. In the short term, the supply of new cotton was limited, and it would still operate weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest after the holiday [8] Operational Suggestions - No operational suggestions were provided in the text Industry News - As of September 23, 2025, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the proportion of cotton - growing areas affected by drought in the United States was 49%, compared with 41% last week and 32% in the same period last year [9] - According to the latest USDA data, as of the week ending September 18, 2025/2026 (unit: 10,000 tons): 1. Sales: The net signing of U.S. cotton was 21,500 tons (month - on - month decrease of 21,900 tons, year - on - year decrease of 5,900 tons). The cumulative signing this year was 946,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 190,000 tons. The cumulative signing volume accounted for 36.2% of the export forecast, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6 percentage points and a decrease of 16.0 percentage points compared with the five - year average. The sales gap was 1.67 million tons, and the average weekly sales required for the remaining period was 37,000 tons. 2. Shipment: The shipment of U.S. cotton was 32,300 tons (month - on - month increase of 4,400 tons, year - on - year increase of 1,800 tons). The cumulative shipment this year was 219,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,300 tons. The shipment progress was 8.4%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points and a decrease of 3 percentage points compared with the five - year average. The shipment gap was 2.39 million tons, and the average weekly shipment required for the remaining period was 53,200 tons [9] Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt total, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][18][20][26][28]

Group 1: Report Summary - The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.01%. The price of the US cotton December contract increased, with a weekly increase of about 0.09%. The price of the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract decreased, with a decline of about 0.55% [5][11][22] - The US 2025/26 annual upland cotton net export signing volume increased, while the shipment volume decreased. The estimated total cotton output in China in 2025 is 721.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, hitting a new high since 2013. With new cotton being sparsely available and the downstream peak season not evident, the short-term support for cotton prices has weakened [5] - Operationally, the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract should be treated with a short-term bearish mindset. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory levels [6][7] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market US Cotton Market - As of September 9, 2025, the non-commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,171 lots, a decrease of 301 lots from the previous week; the non-commercial short positions were 121,505 lots, an increase of 2,821 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 51,334 lots, an increase of 3,122 lots from the previous week [11] US Cotton Export and Spot Price - As of the week ending September 4, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current year was 129,600 bales, a 47% decrease from the previous week and a 33% decrease from the average level of the previous four weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 79.1 cents per pound, an increase of 1.25 cents per pound from the previous week [16] Futures Market - The net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were -19,591 lots, and the net positions of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures were -477 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,232, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 0 [28][34] Spot Market - As of September 19, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,283 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,765 yuan per ton [42][53] Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost and Profit - As of September 18, the import cotton sliding duty price was 14,305 yuan per ton, an increase of 129 yuan per ton from the previous week; the import cotton quota price was 13,527 yuan per ton, an increase of 208 yuan per ton from the previous week. The estimated profit of imported cotton sliding duty was 1,005 yuan per ton, a decrease of 105 yuan per ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton quota was 1,783 yuan per ton, a decrease of 184 yuan per ton from the previous week [57][60] Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply Side - As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. As of July 31, the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.85% [63] - In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 66.67%. As of July, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, with no month-on-month change [70] Middle - End Industry - In July, the yarn inventory days of textile enterprises were 27.67 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.43%. The grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, a month-on-month decrease of 2.95% [73] Terminal Consumption - In July 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1160.4009 million US dollars, a month-on-month decrease of 3.69%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1516.1759 million US dollars, a month-on-month decrease of 0.69% [79] - As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles were 837.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 12.73%; the cumulative year-on-year increase was 2.9%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.45% [83] Group 4: Options and Stock Market Options Market - The report mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week, but specific data is not provided [84] Stock Market - The report shows the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Tunhe Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (600359), but specific data is not provided [87]

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was CF01 + 1500 and above, and that of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton was in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250 [7] - The cotton yarn market was average, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than previous years. The downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and spinning mills sold at market prices. The cotton yarn price remained stable with a slow downward trend. The cotton fabric market maintained shipments, and the fabric price was stable [7] - Overseas, the expected Fed rate cut this week and the assessment of further monetary policy easing in the coming months led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting US cotton. In the domestic market, before the new cotton listing, trading volume was low, and the expected opening price was around 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The demand side had a slight reduction in finished - product inventory, and the downstream weaving mills' operation rate increased seasonally, with rigid - demand support remaining. Fundamentally, there were limited changes, and Zhengzhou cotton would continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending September 13, 2025, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 96.6%, up 9.7 percentage points from the previous week and 1.9% slower than the same period last year. As of September 11, the processing progress was 36%, and new - cotton exports declined in the short term. The quality indicators such as micronaire and strength were lower than last year [9] - As of the week ending September 14, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 52%, down from 54% the previous week but up from 39% in the same period last year [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including the China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc [17][18]